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TyrantWD posted:Exactly. Remember when everyone in 2016 was saying how dangerous a Hillary presidency would be and that Trump is in fact the lesser of two evils, that the level of harm to people would be about the same, and that 4 years of Trump would lead to a great progressive uprising and that the Democratic Party would be forced into a huge shift to the left. The Dems have been largely supportive of everything Trump has done. What have they opposed? They like his picks for the courts, they like his tax cuts, they like that he's continuing and bolstering Obama's immigration stuff. The only thing I can find that they've been consistently critical of him about is that they think he should be more of a warmonger. I can't think of any reason why Hillary would've been different, we all saw her proposed cabinet and nobody on that list has opposed Trump on anything beyond aesthetic grounds. FRINGE posted:I dont know how people dont understand this. It's a stutter!
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Apr 30, 2020 17:38
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Ghost Leviathan posted:It pretty much did. Just no one realised just how far the Democrats would go to shut out the progressive wing and resist giving the left an inch. You would expect this strengthened progressive wing to show up somewhere, like the primaries, but they didn’t. The establishment is also not going to be any more accommodating this time around.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:39
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 haha gently caress you, Joe i think the numbers actually got worse for the rapist since the last time bernie's supporters were polled on this 
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Apr 30, 2020 17:39
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Nobody likes Joe and nobody is excited to vote for him. There's no scenario in which this doesn't lead to massively reduced voter turnout. Every republican loves Trump (even the ones who write long op-eds about how he's so boorish and vulgar are absolutely going to vote for him) and he consistently draws stadium crowds to hear him prattle on about Graydon Carter or whatever because it Owns The Libs. We're six months out and I can't tell you how many cars I've seen driving around flying those big TRUMP/PENCE 2020 flags in my quiet Chicago suburb. They're already insanely pumped to vote for their guy and we're still seven months out, and those months are going to be filled with no-holds-barred Trump ads about Joe's dementia, raping, Chinese billionaires giving Hunter diamonds, warmongering, racism, etc. etc. etc. which is only going to serve to depress Joe's turnout more. No scandal will ever scratch Trump, as we've seen over and over and over, so he's essentially impervious to any of this stuff. You're also kidding yourself if you think conservative voters are going to blame him for anything related to covid. I mean maybe enough old fuckers die that Trump just can't make up the numbers, but I doubt it. I think, more likely, we get the second spike of covid around voting day and the sensible dems who would hold their nose and vote for Joe don't risk it, while every MAGA lawnmower dad happily drags his rear end to the voting booth thanks to Lib Owning and Fake News Virus -- so not only do we get another 4 years of Trump but we get a (another!) downballot massacre.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:40
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Apogee15 posted:Honestly, I think there is going to be a lot less "I'm not voting/i'm writing in Bernie" than some of you seem to think. I think some of you live in a bubble and extrapolate that out too much. Twitter outrage doesn't translate well into real world politics. Especially with both Bernie and AOC endorsing Biden. It's just going to be a bunch of people who would have voted for Bernie, but in a normal election cycle they wouldn't vote for a DNC candidate anyways. When I speak of it I speak of my experiences talking to people irl. It's skewed slightly left since it's a progressive town, but the politically active people here are also largely older white middle class homeowners, so not as much as you'd think. The flip side of this is that the Twitterverse is also the only place you can find people enthusiastic for Biden. Most will hold their nose I think, but it'll be fewer than did for Hillary and Biden's not really in a position where he can be shedding votes since his strategy seems to be doubling down on the proven loser strategy of Hillary
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Apr 30, 2020 17:40
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Pentecoastal Elites posted:Nobody likes Joe and nobody is excited to vote for him. There's no scenario in which this doesn't lead to massively reduced voter turnout. Trump's uncontested in Ohio and still got more votes than Biden lmao
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Apr 30, 2020 17:42
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Not to mention the virus is demonstrably devastating the only Democrat voters who will solidly vote for Biden, as demonstrated when they did vote for Biden at the campaign and media's urging. Democrats refuse to admit that the elections are always a turnout game. The whole reason voter suppression works is by suppressing turnout in a plausibly deniable fashion, as clearly centrist Democrats will gleefully believe about leftists. Trump fires up his voters as his first and often only priority, and it pays off.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:43
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I'll also throw my anecdotes into the pile but I share EHF's experiences of "normal" people being massively and uniformly unenthusiastic about Biden, to the point where they've expressed -- in the middle of a mishandled pandemic seven months away from voting day -- that they won't vote for Joe. My organizing is, of course, on the liberal to left spectrum so this isn't that surprising, but also at my job and with my family, both largely older white suburban homeowning lib groups who should be Joe's bread and butter.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:44
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Pentecoastal Elites posted:I'll also throw my anecdotes into the pile but I share EHF's experiences of "normal" people being massively and uniformly unenthusiastic about Biden, to the point where they've expressed -- in the middle of a mishandled pandemic seven months away from voting day -- that they won't vote for Joe. My organizing is, of course, on the liberal to left spectrum so this isn't that surprising, but also at my job and with my family, both largely older white suburban homeowning lib groups who should be Joe's bread and butter. I haven't been able to find a single one who could muster up the energy for Biden to even chide me for refusing to vote for him lmfao this, mind you, is in the bluest county in the state that is surrounded by red so is never slow to circle the wagons around somebody
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Apr 30, 2020 17:45
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Not to mention the virus is demonstrably devastating the only Democrat voters who will solidly vote for Biden, as demonstrated when they did vote for Biden at the campaign and media's urging. this argument isn't that strong, gullible fossils are the main demographic for both trumb and biden, and the republicans are super intent on acting as if the boomer flu isn't real, so the red rapist will probably lose more of his voters than the blue rapist it's possible though that this will be cancelled out but liberal boomers taking the pandemic more seriously and staying home out of (very reasonable) fear of horrible death by slowly drowning in your own lung fluid while the chuds all rush to pack the polls
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Apr 30, 2020 17:46
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Diddy gets it. https://twitter.com/Diddy/status/1255295755696340992?s=20
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Apr 30, 2020 17:47
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Phone posted:i don't particularly have patience for scolding that basically boils down to "we live in a society" If you want to lash out at people who are on your side, then go ahead but if that's what the left devolves into then we're honestly screwed. Shouting down a female comrade when she is giving her perception of sexual assault on a patriarchy is not ok. The USpol thread has been busily pushing out minorities who dare to question that Biden is better for minorities and that's also not ok; I expect better of comrades. The left wins by solidarity, we don't have trillions of stolen dollars, we just have a shared experience of oppression. Solidarity requires listening to the nuances of others' particular oppression so that we can fight for each other, rather than fracturing into a hundred different identity tribes. Idpol is how liberals fracture the left. This message cannot be repeated often enough. Don't fall into their trap.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:47
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Apogee15 posted:Also how does the economy look like for the month prior to the election? I think those will be the two biggest factors. i think its going to be real loving bad
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Apr 30, 2020 17:48
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RottenK posted:this argument isn't that strong, gullible fossils are the main demographic for both trumb and biden, and the republicans are super intent on acting as if the boomer flu isn't real, so the red rapist will probably lose more of his voters than the blue rapist Well, the Dems are indeed not pretending it's fake, but they also aren't altering their behavior either. Get out to the polls folks, the CDC says it's safe (they said it's not safe) 1 day later, oh dear that was a bad idea, but thanks for the win!
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Apr 30, 2020 17:51
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It will cancel out. More chuds will get sick but they are all well off and can afford the medical care, fewer dem boomers will get sick but they are poorer on average and can't afford medical care or will be forced back to work by their bosses and spread it to other poor dem boomers
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Apr 30, 2020 17:51
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Pentecoastal Elites posted:I'll also throw my anecdotes into the pile but I share EHF's experiences of "normal" people being massively and uniformly unenthusiastic about Biden, to the point where they've expressed -- in the middle of a mishandled pandemic seven months away from voting day -- that they won't vote for Joe. My organizing is, of course, on the liberal to left spectrum so this isn't that surprising, but also at my job and with my family, both largely older white suburban homeowning lib groups who should be Joe's bread and butter. When people had a chance to express that preference in primaries, they went for Biden by a large number. He even had higher favorability numbers than Bernie. At some point people have to accept the numbers we have. And it’s not all sneaky DNC manipulation. Bernie lost every single county in Michigan after beating Hillary there in 2016. There is clearly something some people like about Biden and don’t like about Bernie.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:52
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I wonder what the polls show on this matter?
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Apr 30, 2020 17:53
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Disnesquick posted:If you want to lash out at people who are on your side, then go ahead but if that's what the left devolves into then we're honestly screwed. We're already terminally hosed, tone policing isn't helping.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:58
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turnout among the youth and progressives was up, it's just that turnout among the olds and chuds and Epstein lovers was up even more. They don't like Biden so much as they saw that their kids were fired up and ready to change the world so they turned out in a panic to stop that from happening. It's their prime and often singular drive and constitutes their entire ideology. Now they've got their guy, and they aren't happy because deep down they're terrified he'll lose and now their kids are all pissed off at The Party which is something they aren't comfortable with opposition to. Why, when their preferred centrist careerist lost in the past, they fell in line, why aren't these damned bernie bros doing the same?! They wanted the kids the gently caress out, and they got their wish. I hope Biden loses 50 states and I'll be working to ensure it happens
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Apr 30, 2020 17:58
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TyrantWD posted:When people had a chance to express that preference in primaries, they went for Biden by a large number. He even had higher favorability numbers than Bernie. I'm not sure that translates to the general, though. Then you just get many of those same people just staying home, and I'm not entirely sure that Biden is gaining more than he loses from the first woman president fired up crowd that did vote for her.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:00
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Epic High Five posted:turnout among the youth and progressives was up, it's just that turnout among the olds and chuds and Epstein lovers was up even more. They don't like Biden so much as they saw that their kids were fired up and ready to change the world so they turned out in a panic to stop that from happening. It's their prime and often singular drive and constitutes their entire ideology. !remindme 188 days.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:00
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Apogee15 posted:Honestly, I think there is going to be a lot less "I'm not voting/i'm writing in Bernie" than some of you seem to think. I think some of you live in a bubble and extrapolate that out too much. RottenK posted:
Just fantastic stuff.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:01
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TyrantWD posted:When people had a chance to express that preference in primaries, they went for Biden by a large number. He even had higher favorability numbers than Bernie. The GOP went to pretty extreme lengths to give Republicans no reason to vote in their own Primaries, then encouraged them to vote in Democrat Primaries. But I'm sure that had no effect on the results.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:02
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Epic High Five posted:turnout among the youth and progressives was up, it's just that turnout among the olds and chuds and Epstein lovers was up even more. They don't like Biden so much as they saw that their kids were fired up and ready to change the world so they turned out in a panic to stop that from happening. It's their prime and often singular drive and constitutes their entire ideology. i think its more dem turnout among all demos was super high motivated on basically voting for anyone as we similarly saw in 2018
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Apr 30, 2020 18:03
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:!remindme 188 days. There's a chance he wins! I don't know what the path is but it could exist for no other reason than we have no idea what anything looks like in 6 months. The only thing I'm certain about is that no matter who wins, the trajectory of inequality and austerity and death and destruction doesn't alter its trajectory, just like how it hasn't veered toward justice in 50 years despite the two parties trading majorities
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Apr 30, 2020 18:03
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TyrantWD posted:When people had a chance to express that preference in primaries, they went for Biden by a large number. He even had higher favorability numbers than Bernie. ah right, forgot about famously popular candidate joe biden who did so well before absolutely no one didn't call in a fix of any sort 
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Apr 30, 2020 18:03
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TyrantWD posted:When people had a chance to express that preference in primaries, they went for Biden by a large number. He even had higher favorability numbers than Bernie. Or the narrative the entire time was "you might not like him but everyone else does" so a lot of people got shamed into voting for him in the primary. We have anecdotal evidence that the electability arguments worked and a lot of people changed their votes to Biden because they perceived their own opinion to be counter to the general climate, which is generally dictated to the media. Biden won by convincing a lot of unenthusiastic voters that his energized base is right there behind the curtain and if you vote for him they'll be very happy and will help beat Trump. People are now realizing no one is stepping out from behind that curtain.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:06
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Condiv posted:means that there's probably more women that biden raped that haven't come forward yet There was this anonymous accusation that floated a while back. https://theologycorner.net/blog/uncategorized/do-i-have-to-vote-for-a-rapist-if-i-live-in-a-swing-state/ And another anonymous accusation (or maybe the same? impossible to say) that was floated in this tweet. https://twitter.com/_nalexander/status/1255708175711510530 Given how Reade's been treated so far, despite trying to tell her story for years, I can't imagine any other victims are too eager to throw themselves in the firing range. (Kinda like how things were before #MeToo, funny that.)
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Apr 30, 2020 18:09
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Brownhat posted:The GOP went to pretty extreme lengths to give Republicans no reason to vote in their own Primaries, then encouraged them to vote in Democrat Primaries. But I'm sure that had no effect on the results. Bernie lost closed primaries. Also liberal states with vote by mail.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:12
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Apogee15 posted:Personally, I think the outcome of this election hinges more on people who voted for Trump than people who might vote for Biden. Did Trump piss off enough of his old supporters? Also how does the economy look like for the month prior to the election? I think those will be the two biggest factors. My opinion is that the election is going to hinge on people that voted Obama but were too disenfranchised and or demoralized to vote in 2016. Considering that Joe's enthusiasm numbers make John Kerry look like a rock star by comparison I don't see that happening.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:13
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WampaLord posted:Just fantastic stuff. he's not wrong, really, 1 in 4 is still lower than it should be, but there's still a lot of time left for the progressives to notice that biden is just blue trump and jump ship so who knows what'll happen
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Apr 30, 2020 18:15
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Iron Twinkie posted:My opinion is that the election is going to hinge on people that voted Obama but were too disenfranchised and or demoralized to vote in 2016. Considering that Joe's enthusiasm numbers make John Kerry look like a rock star by comparison I don't see that happening. the Obama -> Trump phenomenon is probably the clearest sign that the party is doomed, and they've absolutely refused to even acknowledge those people exist. Barring a huge realignment, they're probably lost to the party forever RottenK posted:he's not wrong, really, 1 in 4 is still lower than it should be, but there's still a lot of time left for the progressives to notice that biden is just blue trump and jump ship so who knows what'll happen that "yet" is predicated on the assumption that Biden will do outreach to get them on board, so yeah that 25% is probably the floor
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Apr 30, 2020 18:15
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Feldegast42 posted:I think as absolutely demonic as Biden is a combination of the horror of Trump and the fallout from coronavirus will get him over the top. But if we are at greater than great depression levels of unemployment and the bipartisan consensus of Washington is to tell us all to gently caress off and die things might get really loving crazy pretty quick as people can no longer afford food and grow desperate Well you better strap in then because by all forecasts we are on track to surpass Great Depression numbers. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1253329707396825088 Diddy will be fine no matter who wins, this is a joke. How is he or anyone going to "hold the vote hostage"? Every candidate promises poo poo to Black people and never follows through.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:15
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RottenK posted:he's not wrong, really, 1 in 4 is still lower than it should be, but there's still a lot of time left for the progressives to notice that biden is just blue trump and jump ship so who knows what'll happen The whole "Twitter ain't real, there aren't as many of you as you think" style argument really rubs me the wrong way when we just had proof that there are literally millions of us, despite the favorite lie in this thread being about the youth vote not materializing (for the millionth time, the youth vote increased its just that olds turned up even harder). Enough to affect the election? Well, we'll see. And it's not just Bernie supporters who aren't enthusiastic for Biden.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:18
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TyrantWD posted:Bernie lost closed primaries. Also liberal states with vote by mail. That was more directed at Michigan's results, and several other states, which were open. The narrative that democrats overwhelming voted for Biden in those states is flawed. Especially South Carolina, who conveniently cancelled their Republican primary.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:19
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Jay-V posted:A Biden win would (supposedly) move us to a slightly more sane place on civil rights and some immigration issues (maybe??) but we could kiss universal healthcare goodbye for at least 10 more years, any progress on climate change would be wholly insufficient, and I have no confidence that he would be meaningfully better than Trump on Dreamers, the economy, or foreign affairs. Also he's a rapist. A minor gripe, but I think people should start using a word other than "insufficient" when talking about this, because it gives the impression of "going half-way when you need to go all the way" or something. In reality, a Biden administration would probably re-enter the non-binding Paris Agreement while also doing things like expanding natural gas harvesting (plus the whole issue that Democrats doing things normalizes them). It's entirely plausible that he's actually a net negative, even if it's a lesser net negative than Trump.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:26
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Falstaff posted:There was this anonymous accusation that floated a while back.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:30
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TyrantWD posted:You would expect this strengthened progressive wing to show up somewhere, like the primaries, but they didn’t. The establishment is also not going to be any more accommodating this time around. ok then don't vote for them lol this isn't complicated
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Apr 30, 2020 18:34
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Mat Cauthon posted:Diddy will be fine no matter who wins, this is a joke. How is he or anyone going to "hold the vote hostage"? Every candidate promises poo poo to Black people and never follows through. Whoa no way, you say Diddy is rich? I dunno, seems kinda significant that the Vote or Die guy is publicly making these statements. Sorry he isn't quoting from the Red Book, but just questioning the narrative that the Democrats are the party that helps minorities puts him ahead of the vast majority of their base.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:40
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Apogee15 posted:Honestly, I think there is going to be a lot less "I'm not voting/i'm writing in Bernie" than some of you seem to think. I think some of you live in a bubble and extrapolate that out too much. Twitter outrage doesn't translate well into real world politics. Especially with both Bernie and AOC endorsing Biden. It's just going to be a bunch of people who would have voted for Bernie, but in a normal election cycle they wouldn't vote for a DNC candidate anyways. do you know what is going to happen? Its going to be the same reason we have trump now. The people are going to vote for him with the hope that things are going to get better. The problem is its biden. we can look forward to bare half measures, austerity, and lip service in the service of helping the rich further put their boots on our necks. What do you think happens after that? At least if it was a different scumbag neoliberal I wouldn't have my son asking my i voted for a rapist in a few years.
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