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Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


I'm glad someone made this thread because now I don't have to. This show is certainly intriguing so far. Could be very good, or could completely fall apart in the second half. No way to know yet!

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Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


large_gourd posted:

the trailer both piqued my interest and made it seem likely that it's a bunch of bullshit with its 'what is behind the mystery door' 'EVERYTHING' talk, because that usually turns out to be a bunch of crap especially when they lead with that and i didn't really pick up on anything else going on, but it's just a trailer.

They basically explain in episode two what the big secret project is, so they're not dragging that out to keep you watching.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Zachack posted:

I took it more to mean that it doesn't matter because what will happen will happen. If free will doesn't exist then your existence doesn't have.. I dunno, meaning? Dying of lung cancer is simply a perceived effect of what is actually just atoms bouncing around the universe, and those atoms will keep bouncing after your illusion of awareness ends.
It's not so much that determinism eliminates meaning, it's just that if you know that the future is already written then there's no point worrying about whether or not you're going to die of lung cancer; either you will or you won't and there's nothing you can do about it so you may as well smoke.

BaldDwarfOnPCP posted:

When I saw the scene with the quantum crucifixion in order to wrap my head around the wacky mix of science and religion I couldn’t help but think back to the thing in Contact where the first message they get from aliens is encoded in a Hitler speech.

Not trying to dance around it honestly but it’s a big elephant and it just seems unlikely that this is a show where everyone is on the same page, ah yes Jesus of Nazareth this thing does work! :science:
I assumed it was just some random crucifixion. Obviously you see a crucifixion and think of Jesus, but it doesn't necessarily follow that we were seeing that specific crucifixion or that that specific crucifixion even happened in the show's reality. The point is that we're seeing a scene from ~2000 years ago so it just had to be something that we, the audience, would associate with that time as a visual shorthand.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Laserface posted:

it seems they are then extrapolating that out to attempting to predict the future?
They're explicitly not doing that. That was one of the rules: no looking at the future and no invading privacy. Although that might be a potential goal, it seems like Forest is more (or exclusively) interested in revisiting the past - and perhaps changing it? Or possibly just working out a way to "beat" determinism; to get off the rails.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Cojawfee posted:

This was a great episode, but I didn't like the sudden credits right when it felt like the episode was reaching a climax. I have a feeling that Lily will walk into the viewing room, and Forest will be in there watching the future or whatever. Then the Lily on screen shoots forest as revenge for Kenton killing both of her boyfriends. Real Lily sees it, freaks out and decides not to shoot Forest. That's what breaks the deterministicness of the universe or whatever. She introduces something that was truly random and that breaks the machine.
The thing that's bothering me is, if it's possible to change the future once you know it then it pretty much has to be unavoidable. There's no way that Katie could have seen her own future and not have that affect her in some way and therefore alter what she does, even if only slightly. If Lily breaks the machine (or universe) by not doing what she was predicted to do then that should already have happened.

If that's what happens then it'll be a real dumb ending.


OTC posted:

Based on the multiverse-theory visual depictions we've seen already, would I be correct in interpreting that Lyndon falls in all possible universes?
Pretty sure that's impossible? If many worlds is true then anything possible will happen in some universe even if it's extremely unlikely. So even if he's far more likely to climb the railing and even if it's far more likely that, having done so, he'll fall to his death, there are still infinite universes in which he either doesn't do it or does it and survives. There are infinite universes in which he climbs over the railing and a sudden gust of wind blows him back to safety. Everything possible happens and then every possibility stemming from each of those outcomes also happens and on to an infinity of infinities.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Donnerberg posted:

Katie is in some sort of paradox loop. She always knew what her future would be because it was predicted before she lived it, and she resigns herself to that because she never sees herself break out of it, and it never predicts her breaking out because she never tries, etc, etc.

But what I'm saying is, she shouldn't even have to try. Knowing in advance what you're about to say, how do you not have that momentary panic of "wait, is that right? Is that exactly what I said?" or a feeling of déjà vu that throws off your timing? It doesn't even have to be something a human would notice, even the tiniest of hesitations is a change.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Zachack posted:

I viewed the scene with the other staff and one-second buffer as the show confirming that Katie is, barring whatever Lily does, correct/stuck. The main issue is that, unless I missed it, the show hasn't really gone into why a deterministic multiverse modification to the machine would make it work, other than allowing the machine to guess as a means of error correction? And the depictions of the multiverse don't really gel with the machine being able to look into the same future.
If many worlds is correct and the machine is based on that then it's probably just showing the most probable possibilities and can constantly make the tiny corrections needed to account for whatever actually does happen. Since no one deviated noticeably from the predictions, any corrections it made would also be too small to spot. Presumably if someone deviated in a major way then you'd see a "glitch" in the playback as it adjusted to the new reality and recalculated. Nothing we've seen confirms or directly refutes that, but if it is possible for something Lily does to break the machine (or the universe) then that whole hypothesis goes out the window.

The problem with trying to work out what's going to happen is that we don't know the rules. Because it's a made-up machine in a made-up universe, we don't know how it works or how the universe it exists within works. There's also the issue that apparently before Lyndon's breakthrough they weren't accounting for many worlds at all, which raises more questions about how any of this works. The more I think about it, the more I doubt that they can actually manage to give us a satisfactory answer to any of these questions, which is going to be annoying because they seem to be building the final episode entirely around them.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Cojawfee posted:

I wonder if it's a similar situation to that Crichton book Timelines where they never figured out how to make their machine work. They just assume that there's another universe where they did figure it out, and they piggyback off that.

That book is so dumb it hurts. :argh:

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Ramrod Hotshot posted:

So Lyndon took his chances with the idea his "conciousness" will wake up somewhere in which he didn't fall?
Not "wake up", he'll just always have been there. If many-worlds is true then everything that possibly can happen does happen. So if it's possible for you to die at a particular time then an infinite subset of the infinite number of yous will die and there's nothing you can do about that. Either you're in a branch of the universe where you die or you're in a branch where you live, and since you'll only go on experiencing anything in the branches where you live, from your own perspective you will always end up living.

Cojawfee posted:

He was pissed off that Forrest and Katie were being nice to them. He probably decided to take things into his own hands.
He wasn't just pissed off, he assumed they'd double-crossed him (as he would have done to them in their position - or what he believed their position to be).

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Shageletic posted:

This is supposed to be a mystery right?
No? At least not in the way that you seem to think. The stuff Lily's been investigating is all stuff that the audience already knows. We're not uncovering clues along with her, because the mystery we care about is not the one she's investigating and the mystery she's trying to solve is one we've already been given the solution to.

OTC posted:

Anyone watching Dispatches from Elsewhere?
Yes. It's extremely good and there's a thread here.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


priznat posted:

Yeah I just thought Lyndon was a prepubescent (perhaps late bloomer 13/14year old) child prodigy type and as portrayed it fit with that completely imo.
Same. I was very surprised when it turned out he was supposed to be 19. I guess they wanted him to seem extremely young while still being plausible as an adult, so they cast an adult who can pass for a young boy?

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


OTC posted:

But do they have a shween??!
Show's over folks, a character's sex/gender/sexual orientation is not explicitly specified so we can no longer continue this inquiry into how the universe operates.


Of all the things that don't matter in the slightest, this sure is one of them.
Who's saying it does?

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Well, that was incredibly dumb.

If you can just choose to not follow the prediction and that's what breaks the sim, there's no way it could possibly have gotten this far. Even with only Katie and Forrest knowing anything about their own futures, there's no way both of them managed to stay perfectly on-script that entire time. Bullshit.

And why would going against the prediction break the machine anyway? That implies that it predicted that its prediction was wrong, which makes no sense. Because otherwise it would just go on cheerfully predicting an inaccurate future beyond the point where reality deviated. Plus, if it's using many worlds now, isn't it predicting every possible future including the ones in which someone saw their own future and deliberately deviated from it?

And the ending where they get to live on in the simulation, which is indistinguishable from reality; okay, so what? They already were. If the machine is simulating every possible future and past then it was already simulating this before they died in real life. In fact, as Forrest points out, determinism means that life is essentially a film and the present is just the bit of it you're seeing now, no more nor less real than any other bit of it, so they're not living in the simulation "now", they always were and always will be. And it doesn't even matter if the simulation keeps running or not (except from Katie's perspective if she wants to spy on them or something) because time is an illusion. The fact that they did exist means they do exist, just not necessarily in the bit of reality you're looking at right now.


It's dumb. It's all dumb.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


mr. unhsib posted:

I know Katie calls it a sim in the denouement but I think the show makes clear that Forest and Lily are in one of the "many worlds".
There's literally no difference. That's the big problem with the ending: not only is the future fixed, but every possible future actually happens therefore nothing matters and everything is meaningless. Simulation and reality are the same, the decisions you make change nothing (because in other universes you made different decisions), and even time is an illusion. The message of the show is: live your life, or don't; eat an ice cream or kick a puppy or jump off a bridge; regardless of what you choose to do you will always have been going to do it and also you will never have done it and there's literally nothing you can do that has any meaning or consequence - even for yourself - because in some other universe you're doing the opposite. It totally vindicates Forrest. He was right; Sergei had no choice about betraying him and he had no choice about having him killed and it doesn't matter that they died and everything will be okay and life is just a movie we're watching so there's no reason to care about any of it. You might as well just watch a simulation of your dead daughter all day because she's just as alive as anyone else.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


ghostwritingduck posted:

Katie and Forest are fanatics who have complete faith that the machine works. Even if they went off script at some point by accident, their minor changes were unlikely to actually impact outcomes.
That really shouldn't matter. Either reality conflicting with the prediction breaks the machine or it doesn't. Whether that discrepancy seems important or significant to a human should be irrelevant to the machine.

ghostwritingduck posted:

Even if multiverse determinism is the answer to our universe, we only have one consciousness.
Consciousness isn't a "thing" you can "have". A person - a being that existed in the past and will continue to exist in the future - is just an idea, not a real thing that exists. A human body is real, but the person that "is" that body is a fictional construct. You're not the same person you were a decade ago in any sense - physically, mentally, emotionally, etc. If you stepped into a machine that duplicated your body perfectly then both people who walked out of it would have equal claim to being the "real you".

ghostwritingduck posted:

Katie and Forest emotionally suffered for going along with the script based on pure belief and Lily later demonstrated to them that they always had the power to not make those painful decisions.
They didn't though. If every possible future happens then every decision you could have made happens to some version of you. If "you" don't experience it, some other "you" will, and they're all really you.

mr. unhsib posted:

Seen a few people say this and it's not true. "Many worlds" is not "every world".
Every possible world.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Fallom posted:

Isn't the point that it's a matter of perspective? It's not that there could be zero universes in which Lyndon survives, it's that there could be zero universes in which Lyndon survives from Katie's perspective as she continues along one of her own paths. From Lyndon's perspective, he may have stepped back from the brink, seen Katie get hit by a bus, and continued life some other way that we're not shown because it's not his timeline we're following, it's some variation of Katie's or someone else's.

Seems unlikely that there would be no possible universes in which Lyndon and Katie both survive. :shrug:

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Cojawfee posted:

Maybe it means that the universe is both deterministic and you can still make choices to slightly change the outcome.
That is literally nonsense.

Cojawfee posted:

He's dead forever. Katie ran the simulation up until he died and then copied that into a new simulation starting at the beginning of the show. So I guess like in the Prestige. One is created, one dies. The one that was created feels like he's the original, but the original is very much dead. If there's any such thing as a soul or whatever, the original one is gone.
If there's a soul then whatever happens to souls happens, I guess, but its well outside the scope of the show. If there are no souls then there's no such thing as an "original". A perfect duplicate of you is just as much you as any supposed "original" is.

Mr Shiny Pants posted:

The wokeness of it all was just too much: all the diversity!
What the gently caress are you talking about?

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Any explanation that relies on the computer not being able to accurately predict the future kind of eliminates the entire point of the show. "What if there was a machine that could perfectly predict the future except it's broken and actually doesn't?" What kind of a dumb question is that?

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


QuoProQuid posted:

But the computer does predict the future, just not in the way Forrest wants. The method to get there is not always identical (see: Katie walking dejected out of her class versus Katie throwing her binders at the floor in rage versus Katie walking out unperturbed), but the outcome is the same (Forrest hires Katie to join Amara). It's the same thing that happens in the scene with Lyndon. How he falls differs from simulation to simulation but he does, always, fall.

Forrest built the machine to predict the most future, to demonstrate that all choices are meaningless and everyone is operating on a track. He wants to show that free will is an illusion and that no one has a choice, something he explains again to Lily when she confronts him in the projection room. Almost all the people at Devs have accepted this worldview, falling into a nihilistic funk where they believe that nothing they do has meaning. Lily demonstrates that this is false. Even if we always wind up at the same destination, our choices still do matter. She makes the improbable choice not to shoot Forrest, despite all she has seen, and sends the world skittering off onto a separate timeline that the Devs machine cannot predict.
Sorry, but this is nonsense. You literally cannot have free will and determinism. What you're talking about is some kind of supernatural force (ie. fate or destiny).

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Cojawfee posted:

Sorry my idea doesn't fit into your idea of something we'll never be able to prove

It's not unprovable, it's impossible by definition. If the universe is deterministic then you can't "make choices to slightly change the outcome" because that would mean that the universe was not deterministic.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


QuoProQuid posted:

But there is no one world. Lily shooting Forrest is the most likely future in many worlds, but it is not the only future and Lily can still make a choice (even if it means she still dies), which puts their world on a different trajectory than all the other iterations of Devs in the multiverse. The accumulation of errors that result from the machine trying to figure out what happens in this extremely improbable future causes it to break.
It's not at all clear whether the real world is deterministic (and the machine doesn't work) or many worlds is correct (and the machine broke for unexplained reasons) or Forrest was just entirely wrong and the machine was never doing what they thought it was doing. The many worlds are only confirmed to exist inside the simulation. Reality remains a mystery. We know that adjusting the machine to account for many worlds made it appear to work better, but it still broke.

grate deceiver posted:

The universe is still deterministic, it's just that Forrest is completely wrong and Deus doesn't accurately predict it, because it can't account for people changing their mind based on the machine's predictions, because it sends it into an infinite loop. Lily didn't violate any laws of nature or determinism, she just found a fault in the machine.
That doesn't make sense, because she wasn't the first one to see it predict the future. There's no reason that her more dramatic action would be more significant than someone else's less dramatic action because the machine isn't a human. It doesn't regard the universe as a story. Even microscopic changes are changes. Situations humans would regard as being fundamentally the same aren't to a computer.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


QuoProQuid posted:

The show seems to come firmly down on the view that Lyndon was right and many worlds do exist both in its filmmaking (all those scenes of alternate Katies and Lyndons) and in its narrative (the machine only starts working when Lyndon throws out Forrest's one-world determinism and switches to the Everett interpretation).
It's not at all clear that those scenes of multiple alternatives actually do represent reality actually following the many worlds model. And surely the fact that the machine broke suggests that whatever it was doing wasn't actually working 100% so its model of the universe was, at best, incomplete.

Cojawfee posted:

They all believe that they have to do exactly what the machine says they will do, so they do it.
They do it exactly, without any measurable deviation? Because even a difference imperceptible to a human should make the prediction wrong as far as a computer is concerned.

D-Pad posted:

Up until Lily is shown the future she is on deterministic rails in which time is a straight arrow. When she is shown the future, whether she is shown herself shooting forest OR throwing the gun or even a bunch of puppies, what the machine shows her becomes the cause for her future actions (the effect). Therefore the cause takes place after the effect in time and this creates a paradox in that it becomes possible for the effect to be different than the prediction even though its still all determistic and no actual choice was made.

Ugh this is hard to put into words but basically from the universes point of view everything that happened was still deterministic and Lily made no actual free will choice, but it caused the machine to bug out because it was trying to calculate outside the straight arrow of time and determinism only works and can be calculated if time runs one way with no ability to see the future.
Nah. If the universe is deterministic and the machine can predict the future then it should be able to account for its own predictions. If the initial prediction being observed alters the outcome then the prediction must be updated until it reaches equilibrium (or the machine runs out of time to calculate it but that doesn't seem to be a factor for whatever reason, it can just simulate the entire universe instantaneously). But apparently in the show the machine showed a static, unchanging prediction. It wasn't iterating through possible futures affected by its own predictions, it was just showing one consistently - which, in a deterministic universe, would have to have happened. You can't beat the prediction because it's already accounting for you trying to do that.

Martman posted:

Otherwise you have not explained at all what force is preventing someone from simply not doing the thing that they see.
The same force that lies behind all of your choices. If the universe is deterministic then choice is an illusion and, having seen the future predicted, you will proceed to act in accordance with the prediction while still feeling like you're making conscious decisions. As Forrest put it, repeating the lines from the simulation he'd watched just felt, to him, like saying the things he wanted to say in that moment even though he knew in advance that he was going to say them. Whatever the machine showed you doing you would do and you would feel as though you were doing it of your own free ill and for perfectly explicable reasons.

A deterministic universe is contrary to our perception of reality, but that doesn't actually mean it has to be wrong.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


grate deceiver posted:

I don't think that's the case. I think we've seen the machine simulate it's physical casing, but do we have any proof it can recreate all of its simulations infinitely nested?
Yes. The mere fact that it works on people who've seen their own future is proof that it is accounting for their reactions to seeing the predictions.

grate deceiver posted:

They weren't trying to beat it. I don't think 1 second is even physically enough to notice something like this and make a decision.
You don't have to (and in fact can't) make a decision. Seeing the prediction is going to alter your behaviour in some way. In order to be accurate the machine has to already be accounting for that. Even if the way you reacted was only microscopically or undramatically different, to the computer it would still be wrong. If the prediction diverging from reality is what breaks it then it should already be broken.

Strange Matter posted:

I realize now that the machine should work again.
Yeah? It does. Did you not see the bit at the end where Forrest and Lily were in the simulation?

Martman posted:

But this isn't true at all if someone is consciously attempting to do the opposite of what the machine shows.

When I want food because I'm hungry, I act in accordance with that desire and acquire and eat some food. If I want to prove to myself that I can not raise my hand even though the machine says I will, you're saying there's a gap there where I simply stop wanting the thing I want.

To say "you'll just find yourself not wanting to beat the machine for no reason" doesn't square with the way sentience works imo. It sounds more like the machine is actively hypnotizing people.
If the universe is deterministic then choice is an illusion. Always; regardless of whether you've predicted the future or not. If you've got a machine that can predict the future by simulating the entire universe then it must be able to predict itself because it is part of the universe and its predictions must account for people seeing its predictions. You will feel like you're consciously making decisions because that's how the human brain works but you will do exactly as you're predicted to do because that's (in this hypothetical scenario) how the universe works. There's no way around it.

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

I have a different read on the scene. It's true that we don't see anyone from Devs specifically make an experiment to beat it, but I think this scene is supposed to indicate that the machine works, to put it simply.
There's really no other way to read it that doesn't turn the entire premise into nonsense.

ghostwritingduck posted:

-Forest insisting to Jamie and Lily that everything was going to be ok.
He says this because he doesn't believe in free will. To his way of thinking there is no difference between the past, present and future. As he says to Lily, his daughter is as much alive as anyone else is, because she was alive in the past. It's why the idea of getting off the rails, breaking determinism, horrifies him; because if the universe is not deterministic then his daughter is really dead because the present is fundamentally different from the past in that it's the only point at which the future can be altered.

grate deceiver posted:

I mean, sure, but at that moment why wouldn't the machine accurately predict them?
Do you behave exactly the same when looking at a blank wall as you do when looking at a mirror? There's no prediction there, just reflection, but the mere fact that you can see yourself will change your behaviour to some extent. There is no way the machine can predict their reactions to seeing the simulation without also simulating itself.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Martman posted:

But... the machine stops predicting reactions after Lily decides to change her behavior in response to seeing its prediction.
Does it? Everyone seems to be taking this as fact but the machine doesn't stop when Lily contradicts it. It stops shortly after that for unknown reasons. We also never learn why it was unable to accurately predict Lily's actions. That's part of the problem with the final episode; the stuff that happens apparently contradicts the way the machine has worked in previous episodes. The characters don't understand it and the show never offers an explanation that fits the facts as previously established.

Martman posted:

I also think, on the other side of what you're claiming about determinism, that there's "no way around" the fact that sentient creatures can react to their perceptions.
You don't need a way around it. It's not a contradiction. If the machine is predicting itself (as it has to to be able to predict people's reactions to it in previous instances) then it will always work whether you're trying to beat it or not. If the universe is deterministic and can be perfectly simulated then you simply cannot beat the simulation because it's impossible by definition.

Martman posted:

I feel like you're saying something along the lines of "If you have a machine that can draw green squares that are also red circles, then there's simply no way around the fact that green squares and red circles are the same thing," and it ignores the actual underlying meaning of the claims involved.
This is essentially what the show is saying, because in reality a perfect simulation of the universe actually is impossible. The machine is magic and it stops working because, I guess, the magic ran out. The show is dumb.

Martman posted:

I thought you were arguing that the show comes out in support of the determinism answer and requires that Lily must be magic or something in order to beat it.
"Lily is magic" is one of two consistent interpretations of the show. The other is that the machine just didn't work right. Neither is satisfying, but that's what we've got because the show is dumb.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


grate deceiver posted:

But deterministic does not necessarily mean predictable.
The show's universe is predictable though. The machine works.

Martman posted:

I think it's perfectly possible that the show's universe is deterministic, but the machine is shown to be unable to predict its own impact on the universe.
Actually the exact opposite is shown. Several times. Imagine you walk into an empty room. Now imagine you walk into the same room but there's a big mirror on the wall. Your actions are going to be different. You're not trying to "beat the mirror", you're just behaving differently because the situation is different. The people seeing their one-second future were essentially looking into a mirror. If the machine's simulation didn't contain itself and account for its predictions in its predictions then it could not have accounted for the people's behaviour when looking at themselves one second in the future. The fact that it did proves that its predictions are self-consistent and cannot be disrupted by intent or by accident.

Martman posted:

Forest buys into it completely, and this actually causes/allows him to become evil. His willingness to commit murder is predicated not just on his investment in the correctness of the machine, but the resulting belief that people are machines and don't really exist anymore as "people."
There's no need to speculate about this, he explicitly explained himself. If the universe is deterministic then there's no difference between past, present and future; everything that has or will happen is set. It's no different to be alive today than to be alive twenty years ago or 200 years in the future. Anyone who was or will be alive is alive (at some point in time, but time is irrelevant). You can't really kill anyone because they're still alive in the past - just as alive as anyone is now or will be in the future.

Martman posted:

I kind of think Lily breaking it is a big gently caress you to the whole thing. I don't think there's anything magical about her, except her ability to continue believing in her own free will in the face of the machine's predictions.
Believing in free will doesn't make it real any more than disbelief in gravity lets you fly. So yeah, "Lily is magic" is one possible explanation. The other is "the machine just broke for some unexplained reason."

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Martman posted:

First of all, the machine absolutely, unquestionably failed. You can't deny it. You can't just point to the times it succeeded and say that's proof that it works. If it works sometimes and doesn't work other times, then it doesn't work.
It worked perfectly right up until the point that it failed completely for unknown reasons. It wasn't working inconsistently or intermittently, it just worked. Until it didn't.

Martman posted:

Second, it is not hard to believe it can "predict" or comfortably influence the behavior of people who want to go along with it.
Yeah it is. It's impossible to believe that, in fact, unless you think that seeing yourself in a mirror is the same as seeing a blank wall. At the very least the activity inside those people's brains will be different for having seen the prediction, which makes the prediction wrong. You keep coming back to this idea that if it looks the same to a human observer then it is the same but that's simply not true. From the perspective of a machine simulating the universe on a subatomic scale there's no such thing as imperceptible differences. The prediction is wrong and if being wrong was enough to break the machine it would already be broken. And not just when someone looked at their own future but as soon as they looked at anything. If the simulation doesn't contain itself then it can't account for anything anyone does in response to anything it shows them. And we know that people's behaviour was altered by things they saw in the simulation, so that clearly cannot be the case. The machine works, so it must contain itself.

Martman posted:

That doesn't prove much. Would you watch a hypnotist succeed on a bunch of unpaid, unscripted audience members and decide that hypnotism must be completely real?
The situation is not remotely analogous.

Martman posted:

This is the point of view of an insane murderer who goes into complete denial when he sees the proof that the machine doesn't actually do what he thinks it does. Why take his justification for murder at face value?
Because it's consistent with his actions.

Martman posted:

I'm saying her believing she has free will allows her to violate the predictions of the machine.
How?

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Martman posted:

This is a description of a thing that doesn't work.
So if I tell you that my fridge used to keep things cold until one day when it stopped your conclusion is that my fridge never worked?

Martman posted:

I haven't said anything like this so I don't understand this part.
You're not using those exact words but you keep drawing this distinction between "trying to beat the machine" and "going along with it" when both are reactions to the predictions. They are not fundamentally different. They look different to a human because of the story we build in our minds but the universe doesn't operate on the rules of human perception.

Martman posted:

The machine only works until the first time we see someone bother to attempt to beat it, at which point it fails. In other words, it only works as long as people do not attempt to deviate from its predictions.
See, this is the bit you don't seem to get: it doesn't matter if you attempt to beat it or attempt to go along with it or attempt to ignore it entirely. Seeing the simulation alters your behaviour. If the machine couldn't account for someone trying to undermine it then it also couldn't account for someone trying to follow the script or someone just reacting to seeing literally anything in the simulation. If it works in one case then it must work in all these cases because they are identical.

Martman posted:

All she has to do is not do what it shows
HOW? If the universe is deterministic and the simulation contains itself then it has already accounted for her seeing the prediction and therefore the prediction should show what she will do in response to seeing it. There is no room for deviation unless you introduce some element from outside the system (ie. the universe). Either Lily is magic or the machine suddenly broke.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Strange Matter posted:

But Devs can't cope with that because it correctly calculates that she will defy whatever projection it shows her, which traps the system in a loop.
This is inconsistent with how the system has been shown to operate in previous episodes. It does seem to be the writer's intended interpretation, but it is a problem not with the fictional computer but with the actual, real-world writing of the show. They made the rules and then they refused to engage with them. The show is dumb.

grate deceiver posted:

But within the confines of a TV show, accepting that small insignificant changes are fine, and big 'deliberate' changes are system-breaking is not that big of a suspension of disbelief.
I mean, it's fine if it's magic. But it's inconsistent with the rest of what we're being asked to believe of this fictional system/reality.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Strange Matter posted:

How is it inconsistent? The only time we see them projecting the future is when Stanley does the one second projection for the Devs team which seems like a deliberate choice to demonstrate the ability of the system to predict the future without giving the subjects the time needed to consciously defy it.
You don't need to consciously defy it to be affected by it! Are you deliberately ignoring the mirror analogy? Because that's the clearest way I can think of to explain this and you just aren't acknowledging it at all. As soon as they see the simulation, the simulation has affected their actions. It has changed the contents of their brain. Either the simulation has already taken that into account by simulating itself (which the show explicitly confirms is the case so I don't know why we're even stuck on this point) or it breaks.

SaTaMaS posted:

the point is that the determinism that Forest and the engineers embraced was a fantasy
If the universe was not deterministic then the machine would not work. It wouldn't be able to show the future, it wouldn't be able to show the past, it wouldn't even be able to show the present. Because the whole system works by analysing the current state of some matter and working forward, backwards and out. If there are non-deterministic elements at work then its results will be inaccurate. The machine works because the universe is deterministic. That's not a theory, it's established within the show.

Strange Matter posted:

Lily's actions are still deterministic in that they're based on her knowledge of what the machine showed her; but the machine crashes because it cannot reconcile what it calculates as a paradox in simulating a universe where an effect precedes its cause.
But it was already doing that from the very moment it was switched on. If Lily doesn't have free will then there's nothing different about her seeing the simulation than anyone else seeing it. Everyone who sees it is influenced by it even if they don't want to be. You can pretend you didn't see the mirror, but that is a choice you can only make because you saw the mirror. If there was no mirror you couldn't choose to ignore it.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


SaTaMaS posted:

The machine can project out into the past and future, but that's just one of innumerably many predictions. The universe can still be deterministic, but the machine can't handle every branching possibility of multiple worlds.
Yeah, so? How does that explain why it couldn't make any predictions past a particular point? If it was simply the case that what we saw was the outcome of a low-likelihood possible world that the machine hadn't simulated then the machine should just have been wrong and Forrest and Katie shouldn't have known anything unusual was going to happen.

Strange Matter posted:

But the idea that the show is presenting is that Katie following the system's narrative is the deterministic result of her psyche. She accepts the machine's sequence of events as the absolute fact and that allows the machine to continue functioning. If she decided not to go to the dam or to pull Lyndon back from the railing, then the machine would have crashed there for the same reason that it did for Lily. But she doesn't because she believes that the events are out of her control because the system told her so. Lily proves the opposite; it is possible to defy the machine, even if that is the result of deterministic events. If you want to take it to its logical extreme, Lily was always going to defy it, which is what causes it to breakdown. The show absolutely supports a deterministic universe, but the Devs system, for all its power, still faces finite limits in what it can project.
You are drawing a distinction where there is none. Deciding to do what the machine predicted and deciding not to are equally the results of seeing the prediction. If the universe is deterministic then there is no such thing as choosing. You will do what the machine predicted because you were always going to. If a character in a book becomes aware of how the story ends, it still ends that way because it was already written. The only way out of this is free will, which, if it exists, is a non-deterministic element that makes the entire simulation impossible. Unless it's something that only Lily has and only once she's seen the simulation, which makes no sense.

Strange Matter posted:

My question for you is, how do you think it should have gone?
Honestly, you eliminate almost all these issues if you don't have the simulation fail. If it just predicts something that doesn't happen then that just demonstrates the point Forrest made when Lyndon first introduced the many worlds element to it, which is that it's not simulating their universe just one potential universe. The fact that there was this event horizon it couldn't see past is the one incongruous element that breaks everything.

Strange Matter posted:

With Many Worlds though he faces two intolerable conclusions: that he could have done something different, and that in other worlds things did go differently.
It's more complex than that. In a single, deterministic universe, there's no such thing as time. Past and future are all contained within the present. His daughter never died because no one ever does. Choice is an illusion, but it doesn't matter. Choice is equally an illusion in many worlds but for the opposite reason; because everything that can happen does happen. But that also means that the simulation of his daughter is not his daughter. He makes this point when he's arguing with Katie about Lyndon's many worlds solution. In his world she is dead and always will be and those other versions of her are not her.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Strange Matter posted:

This ultimately has the same end result though
If that were the case then it would make the inclusion of this nonsenscial element even stupider than it already is. It's not though. The machine breaking (apparently because of Lily's free will) is the impetus for a lot of what happens and in a story-telling sense completely changes the meaning of the final episode. It's clearly very important to the story they're trying to tell, it's just really dumb.

SaTaMaS posted:

They aren't in the Many Worlds though, since they died. Now they're in a projection of one possible world. Forrest doesn't control the content, but Katie or whoever controls the machine does.
Did you even watch the show? The fact that the machine only worked properly when it was simulating many worlds is a major plot point and Forrest even reiterates it to Lily within the simulation. The world we see them in is just one of many, and happens to be a nice one for them, but there are other versions of them in much worse worlds and Forrest's decision to let them remember their own deaths is specifically so that those versions of them will know what's happening to them and why.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Strange Matter posted:

I'm not saying Lily is The Special who magically used the gift of Free Will to save the day. She sees the projection and reacts accordingly. The Devs system even knows that she's going to do that, it just crashes because it creates a paradox in its simulated reality.
I know what you're saying, you're just wrong. The evidence in the show does not support your conclusion. I've explained why and you just keep ignoring me. You can choose to ignore a mirror, but only if you have seen the mirror. The existence of the mirror affects your actions even if you want to pretend that it doesn't.

Martman posted:

One of the machine's intended functions is to predict the future. It has always been failing at doing that past Lily's choice. If a fridge is guaranteed to stop working in a week, then yeah it's quite broken.
"Working" is not a binary, yes/no proposition. To say the machine doesn't work is an absurd oversimplification. It works perfectly up to a point.

Martman posted:

I don't think you can back this up.
It's what the show explicitly tells us. There is no other explanation for the one-second-into-the-future scene.

Martman posted:

You keep equating "the universe is deterministic" to "the machine is always right" when the machine is 100% proven to not be always right, whether or not its universe is deterministic.
I keep using the word "if". I'm talking about how a system would work if the universe were deterministic and contained a simulation of itself that also contained a simulation of itself and on to infinity. I explain this to demonstrate problems with the show's narrative, not to explain what's actually happening in the show (because the show is dumb and doesn't actually make sense).

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


exmarx posted:

i think it's a mistake to see the machine as a mirror
I wasn't saying the machine is a mirror, I was using a mirror as an example of how changes in your environment will affect your behaviour whether you want them to or not. If you run a simulation of a person walking into an empty room but in real life that room contains a mirror (or anything else) then the simulation will not accurately predict reality, no matter how good it is in other respects. This means that the simulation cannot be "beaten" because it must already be accounting for its own existence or it couldn't have accurately predicted anything at all. The idea that Lily caused it to break by choosing to defy it is nonsense. It is flatly contradicted by the evidence within the show.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Martman posted:

Sure there is. The machine is extremely good at guessing things, including the behavior of some people. But it's absolutely, 100%, definitely not perfect at guessing.
To clarify, because I had to click back through several quotes to remember what this conversational thread is even about, we're talking about whether there's any difference between "choosing" to do as the simulation predicted or not. And it doesn't matter whether the machine is good at predictions or not, the fact is that in a deterministic universe choice is an illusion. It doesn't matter what you choose because your choice isn't real - it's just the matter of your brain reacting in a predictable fashion. If the machine is simulating a universe without itself in it then it cannot predict what anyone will do when they see its predictions because they're not part of the simulation. But it can predict what people will do when they see the predictions, therefore it is simulating itself and cannot be "beaten". Even if it is merely showing the most probable outcome, that outcome must still account for the person seeing the prediction. Determinism means no free will, end of story. Whether you react with resignation or outrage, your reaction has already been predicted and accounted for. You won't feel like you're on rails but you are, and you can't get off.

Martman posted:

The show explicitly shows us that Lily beats the machine.
It does not. We know that the machine is running many simulations to account for the many worlds theory. The simulation it showed the characters in the particular world we were watching was inaccurate to that world. That doesn't mean Lily "beat" the machine, it just means we were watching a less probable outcome for some reason.

Martman posted:

Imagine a machine showing the predictions of a starving person who's been presented with food. You're saying that if it correctly predicts that this person eats the food, even after it shows them that prediction, this proves that their perception has no role in universal laws?
The analogous example would be a machine predicting what a hungry person will do when they enter a particular room. If there is a sandwich in the room but the simulation does not include it, the prediction will be wrong. In the case of DEVS, the machine is also the sandwich. It must include itself in its predictions or they will be wrong. It demonstrably does so and this is confirmed in dialogue. That means that the people in the simulation have seen the simulation and therefore the prediction will take that into account. The machine can't get into a recursive loop as has been suggested in this thread. That would mean that everything we're told and shown about how the machine works is wrong, and at that point you're just writing fanfiction.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Strange Matter posted:

I think the point you're ultimate shooting at is that the Devs system is either flawless or it doesn't work at all, because there's no such thing as an inconsequential deviation in a system where every part is dependent on the absolute behavior of every other part.
loving finally. You finally get it. That's been my point this whole time. THE SHOW IS DUMB. It breaks its own rules. This is what I'm saying.

Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


Strange Matter posted:

I mean, it's science-fiction, my dude, I don't know what else to tell you. It requires a certain degree of suspension of disbelief to tell the story
OK, I thought we were finally on the same page but it turns out we're not. What I'm saying - what I have been saying all along - is that the show contradicts itself. The way the machine works in one instance is not how it works in a different instance. This has nothing to do with suspension of disbelief or realism - you can have straight-up magic in a fictional world and it's fine - you just need to be consistent. If, to use magic as an example, you say that magic can heal any injury but not revive the dead then in the last episode the wizard brings someone back to life just because, that is a contradiction of the established rules of the system. If you don't justify it then it ruins the story. It destroys the impact of anything that was built around that limitation, or really any other limitation because it's proved that the writers don't care about their own rules and nothing matters at all because they'll just write their way out of any problem with whatever contrivance is easiest. That is what happened here. The machine was shown (and explained) to work in one particular way and then it didn't. That is the problem.

Strange Matter posted:

And even if it's not 100% scientifically coherent due to chaos theory or whatever it's still thematically coherent which is just as important, if not more so.
I have no idea how scientifically accurate it is (I suspect not at all) but you are 100% wrong about it being thematically consistent. Everything hangs together except for the machine breaking and the happy ending being pulled out of nowhere. The final episode ruins the story. Not because the machine is unrealistic, but because it suddenly works in a different way to how it has worked previously, which undermines everything the show is trying to say.

Strange Matter posted:

Katie and Forrest are convinced that their system cannot be defied and choose to believe that causality itself has broken down instead of the possibility that they are wrong and their system and thus their ideology is fundamentally flawed.
They know the machine is simulating many worlds though? They know that its predictions are not 100% accurate. It's the exact thing that Forrest is complaining about when Lyndon first implements the many worlds solution. It's not that they think their system can't be defied. It certainly surprises Forrest that Lily doesn't behave as predicted but that's not the thing they said "broke causality". It's the point in time the machine can't predict past, which they speculate is caused by something Lily does but never actually find an explanation for. And it's that barrier that is the massive, gaping plot hole that ruins the story.

Strange Matter posted:

In theory it wouldn't be hard to manually adjust the prediction to account for Lily's paradox.
What theory? What paradox? There is no paradox!

Strange Matter posted:

Lily proved that Devs is fallible.
I do not know how you can actually watch the show and come to this conclusion. It is absolute nonsense. It requires you to flat out ignore things that happened in previous episodes.


Martman posted:

When I said the failure meant Devs doesn't actually work (at least, the way Forest and Katie think it does), you likened it to a fridge that does a pretty good job.
No. To a fridge that does a perfect job until it doesn't work at all. Because that's what happens in the show. The machine works perfectly up until the point at which it breaks. It works exactly as they think it does, and then it stops working for reasons that are never explained.

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Tiggum
Oct 24, 2007

Your life and your quest end here.


I don't care any more.

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