UKMT April 2020 - The Betacoronavirus and the Virgin Atlantic

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT April 2020 - The Betacoronavirus and the Virgin Atlantic

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

floofyscorp posted:

RE: 'it's just the flu' I was curious so I looked up some statistics and apparently 600 people die of flu-related complications in the UK every year on average(although some years it spikes to ~10k). So just yesterday COVID killed almost as many people as usually die of the flu in a year.

Where did you get 600 from? The official UK reports seem to suggest:
2014/15 28k
2015/16 12k
2016/17 18k
2017/18 26k
2018/19 2k.
Taken from page 51 of the newest report.

# ¿ Apr 1, 2020 17:22

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 13:59

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Soylent Yellow posted:

Try isalexanderborisdepfeffeljohnsondeadyet.com

hasbojexithappenedyet.com

# ¿ Apr 6, 2020 10:46

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

~~Seven~~ Eight Prime Ministers have died in office:

Lord Wilmington, who died on 2 July 1743, aged 70.
Henry Pelham, who died on 6 March 1754, aged 59.
Lord Rockingham, who died on 1 July 1782, aged 52.
William Pitt the Younger, who died on 23 January 1806, aged 46, the youngest to die in office.
Spencer Perceval, who was assassinated by John Bellingham on 11 May 1812, aged 49.
George Canning, who died on 8 August 1827, aged 57.
Lord Palmerston, who died on 18 October 1865, aged 80 (two days before his 81st birthday); the oldest to die in office.
Bojo.

# ¿ Apr 6, 2020 20:57

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Gonzo McFee posted:

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960

official death rates are massively under what the government claims according to the NHS England. And this still excludes people dying outside of hospital.

'80% low' is wrong here. That would make it fives times worse. 'actual 80% higher' or ' reported 45% below'.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2020 10:58

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

I've found out one of my neighbours works really n a medical ward that is to look after post-ICU cases. Better practice my social distancing...

# ¿ Apr 7, 2020 11:02

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

There's also a serious lack of sports to report on and I'd hedge a guess that's perhaps less of a driver for the typical broadsheet buyer?

# ¿ Apr 7, 2020 13:09

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Looking at the Guardian report of the latest death report

Guardian Live Blog posted:

A further 765 patients have died in hospital in England, bringing the total to 7,248 - up from 6,483 the day before.

Of the 765 new confirmed reported hospital deaths announced today by NHS England, 140 occurred on 8 April while 568 took place between April 1 and April 7.

The remaining 57 deaths occurred in March, including two on 19 March and one on 16 March.

The patients were aged between 24 and 103-years old. Some 43 of the 765 patients (aged between 33 and 99 years old) had no known underlying health condition.

Based on what the Government is releasing publicly, is it actually possible to understand what the UK daily rates are?

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Apr 9, 2020

# ¿ Apr 9, 2020 16:49

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I'm not sure what you're asking for here - unless you want them to only publish the numbers after, say, 7 days waiting for the paperwork to catch up then there's always going to be a bit of a lag where late-reported deaths, or deaths where they've been unable to inform the relatives, or any of a number of other complications, end up not being reported on the correct day. Assuming there's not a complete collapse of the reporting system (which I'll admit isn't impossible) then it will tend to even itself out, because the under-reported deaths on one day end up counting in the next days numbers (or the next, or the next).

FWIW the weekly ONS reports *do* wait for all the paperwork to catch up if you really insist on knowing the exact number of people who died on a selected day you can wait for them to come out.

Clearly there's not going to be completely accurate numbers immediately but compared to the reporting by different countries, the UK numbers seem to be all over the place; with constantly changing methodology and vagueness about when to to attribute the deaths.

# ¿ Apr 9, 2020 17:22

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

My point isn't about accurately reporting the number of in the last 24 hours. I have zero issue with the data not being magically complete immediately. It's about them providing detailed breakdown of the numbers for us to understand what's happening in the country. The ONS date is in the right direction except they're only breaking down weekly not daily.

Edit:
This seems to be the data presented as I was after.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
I'ts only hospital deaths and England but it daily numbers continually revised as the data comes in.

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Apr 9, 2020

# ¿ Apr 9, 2020 17:42

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

They've pickled him in some craft spirit. When it's all over and they can announce his death he'll go on display somewhere.

# ¿ Apr 9, 2020 19:40

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

XMNN posted:

761 dead in hospitals in England, which I think is going to be free of any weekend effect by now?

sort of a faint glimmer of good news if it's sustained for a few days?

This is NHS England's current understanding of in-hospital deaths by actual date, as of yesterday 5pm.

The 'provision' bars are the ones the NHS themselves label as 'Data likely to change' Most the deaths are recorded within five days but they still continue to get noted after that. For example, only 81% of the deaths known to have occurred on the 31st March were collated in the first five days. The long-tail of reports seems to have gotten longer, presumably as the hospital system has been more overworked. If you apply an 80% rule to the first couple of red bars then we're still in the flattening stage rather that decreasing stage.

This shows how quickly NHS England is currently able to account for deaths. For the 1st May, it's taken ten days to converge on something that looks like a final number.

ref: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

# ¿ Apr 15, 2020 16:59

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

If they can tell how many deaths we're going to have on the 1st of May I think our problems are already over. Other problems - that the NHS is now run by necromancers using the dead to predict the future - may just be starting though.

Call me Mystic Meg.

# ¿ Apr 15, 2020 18:08

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Has Starmerdroid ever show great emotion about anything?

# ¿ Apr 15, 2020 19:51

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Updated NHS Coronavirus stats

Unless there's still extra lag due to the long weekend, it does feel like we might be at a turning point.

# ¿ Apr 16, 2020 14:34

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Qwertycoatl posted:

I'm guessing the giant drop at the end is "it's only 2.30 so most of today's deaths haven't happened" rather than "deaths have plummeted"?

Yes.

Ignore the date on the chart - it's for the 1st April (not 1st May). It takes about three or four days for the majority of the deaths to be counted but up to about ten for something close to definitive. But basically the three right-hand most bars at not anywhere near the actual figure for there corresponding days.

# ¿ Apr 16, 2020 14:47

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Loonytoad Quack posted:

Today's number of deaths is 861 which means that first red bar is actually now a much taller blue bar, so don't get too excited yet.

That's the reported number, who's deaths are spread over a number of days which makes working out the influence of the bank holiday weekend etc hard to determine. With these NHS England charts, the three right-hand columns should pretty much be ignored. The blue bars are fairly close to the final numbers and the two left red bars need a mental fudge factor applied.

# ¿ Apr 16, 2020 15:01

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Spain Italy and France all showed *long* plateaus of death numbers, I'd be very surprised if we were seeing a downturn now unless there's some other factor than social distancing at play.

I suspect most people were expecting some form of bell curve to the death rate but it does seem as if the shape is an exponential increase up to the maximum then only a linear decrease on the way down.

# ¿ Apr 16, 2020 15:04

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Pablo Bluth posted:

Updated NHS Coronavirus stats

Unless there's still extra lag due to the long weekend, it does feel like we might be at a turning point.

In case anyone is interested, latest updated figures

Looking at recent trends, I estimate all the red bars are on track to be 650-750 range so plateau stage.

# ¿ Apr 17, 2020 15:20

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Darth Walrus posted:

888 deaths today. Considering it's the weekend, that's a bit scary.

updated NHS England data. I've added the light blue columns that show the figures as of yesterday

# ¿ Apr 18, 2020 14:34

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Am I terrible for just using chopped garlic from a jar?

# ¿ Apr 20, 2020 11:56

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Jippa posted:

Of course not. I think for a lot of people chopping stuff up and cooking it is fun that's why people discuss it like this. I love chopping up onions as well (I genuinely have no idea why).

I love chopping things up. Except garlic.

# ¿ Apr 20, 2020 12:26

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

My council tax bill for the year finally turned up. It's a month later than usual and they've pushed back the first payment from the start of April to the start of June (so the financial year has started with the two month holiday instead of ending with it).

# ¿ Apr 20, 2020 16:03

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Good news: a hedgehog left me a poop present on the path
Bad news: a cat left me a poop present hidden in my gravel and I trod in it.

# ¿ Apr 21, 2020 10:01

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

I have some flour and I'll be using it to make that greatest of dishes; toad-in-the-hole.

# ¿ Apr 21, 2020 12:12

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Latest NHS England figures are out

# ¿ Apr 21, 2020 14:24

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Video the gunman shot is prominent on Twitter, I won't share it (and I kept the volume off). It genuinely looks like someone suffering isolation madness and wanting to get arrested than either an attempt to kill people or suicide-by-cop.

# ¿ Apr 22, 2020 10:47

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

There's been the first reported case in a refugee camp, so we'll get to see just how badly it wipes out people in that situation.

# ¿ Apr 22, 2020 10:52

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Daily chart update

# ¿ Apr 22, 2020 14:43

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

ThomasPaine posted:

This looks weirdly optimistic and idgi, tbh.

I think it's just taking a while for deaths to be counted. Every day up until now is probably still going to end up over 600. We also seem to have had a day that has ended up being a slightly anomalous peak that makes the decline look faster than it is.

# ¿ Apr 22, 2020 14:55

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

The Question IRL posted:

So my daughter lives in Scotland.
My Sister-in-law lives in Australia with her husband and daughter.
My other Sister-in-law moved to Canada in February.

Under your plan my wife and I would have to plan out which of our family members we could see in person for every three years? And do so in advance and hope nothing major happens in their lives every three years.

Really doesn't seem workable.

It's how humans have lived for most of history.

# ¿ Apr 26, 2020 13:12

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Josef bugman posted:

I can understand folks wanting to meet up with family etc.

But I do think a big downswing in the amount of air travel is very good and absoluately vital to make sure we don't all drown and then boil.

Correction: the boiling comes before the drowning.

# ¿ Apr 26, 2020 14:42

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Looks like Virgin Media is shutting the bed tonight. Anyone else having issues?

# ¿ Apr 27, 2020 21:23

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Eigtheen days without the UK running a coal power station.

# ¿ Apr 28, 2020 12:13

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 13:59

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Josef bugman posted:

Does anyone know a good microphone and webcam to have for chatting to folk?

There's been a massive run on all webcams and microphones. Use your smart phone...

# ¿ Apr 30, 2020 21:40

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT April 2020 - The Betacoronavirus and the Virgin Atlantic