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HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Another thing that came up last time this was discussed is that the numbers of voters is smaller than the numbers of eligible voters, and a bunch of carpet baggers moving to Fargo to swing an election would motivate at least some of them to go vote again

Also somebody recently said carpetbagger is a racial slur but I can’t remember if it was Twitter or d&d

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HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Srice posted:

libertarians tried something like that with new hampshire in the early 00s and it fizzled out almost immediately

That’s such a loving bonkers story. Libertarians v bears

https://newrepublic.com/article/159662/libertarian-walks-into-bear-book-review-free-town-project

quote:

Caught up in “pitched battles over who was living free, but free in the right way,” the libertarians descended into accusing one another of statism, leaving individuals and groups to do the best (or worst) they could. Some kept feeding the bears, some built traps, others holed up in their homes, and still others went everywhere toting increasingly larger-caliber handguns. After one particularly vicious attack, a shadowy posse formed and shot more than a dozen bears in their dens.

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

gimme the GOD drat candy posted:

that's not remotely similar to anything that happened. harris ran out of money due to an incompetently managed campaign. she also was probably not the first choice for vp, but then it turned out that klobb declined to prosecute derek chauvin.

I never really bought that excuse honestly. You can keep the lights on and continue to make media appearances and barn storm and poo poo with not a ton of money. Nut jobs every cycle try. Obviously you can’t run a big team of staff, but you can stay in until you can notch a victory or two and the spigot turns back on. Pretty sure McCain ran out of money in the fall of 2007 with a longer stretch to go until the primary

But if you don’t expect the votes to materialize and the money to start coming in again that’s a different story

But also I am pretty sure Joe was always going to pick Kamala as VP—she just checked all the boxes he was looking to check

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Seriously, the money angle is just her saving face. Candidates can survive running out of money as long as they can expect to get a decent placing in Iowa and NH and SC. Doing well turns the money right back on. She dropped because she knew she was going to get her rear end kicked in an embarrassing way and that such a significant lose would make it harder for Biden to pick her as VP

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

It was always going to be Biden if Bernie couldn’t take him out. None of the other establishment picks ever got the traction to seriously challenge him so they stuck around while they were useful to split early primaries so that Pete/Klob could dull Bernie’s chance of building momentum in Iowa/NH but then Nevada just went sideways so it was time to call in the fix for SC

You are putting way too much faith in Kamala’s excuse when the real reason she dropped is because she was going to be humiliated

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

LastInLine posted:

At first blush this might seem false but when I actually think about I can't remember a politician telling me they'd do anything to improve my life at all.

I’m curious how they categorized vague platitudes and promises to “support” legislation which isn’t the same as passing it

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Coolness Averted posted:

Yeah. What I love about that quote and plan to specifically allow local governments to force the homeless into court ordered programs before they commit any crimes and put them in conservatorship if they don't comply is it's 100% a 90's republican plan.

For extra comedy, if you said "Look at this plan from Texas, and here's what Greg Abbot said about civil rights advocates protesting it." They would absolutely boo and hiss the mean red team.

Last week there was a little piece local media ran about a local whining about homelessnesses and it was just a perfect distilled view into the liberal mindset


https://www.koin.com/local/multnomah-county/start-being-leaders-woman-frustrated-by-wheelers-response-to-homeless-concerns/amp/

quote:

she moved to Portland from the East Coast five years ago because she wanted to live in a more progressive city.

Oh word?

quote:

she shared stories about how the crisis has impacted herself, her friends and neighbors.

“My friend is a realtor who just recently lost a deal because a homeless camp popped up in front of a house the clients were going to buy. What if that’s how you made a living? Are you going to subsidize that loss for him?”

Lmao

quote:

“They blame it on unaffordable housing,” Rose said. “That’s part of it, but it’s also enabling, and they don’t want to give up that narrative,” Rose said.

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Lol yet another poll of Oregon gov shows the Republican in the lead

And the independent blue dog pulling twice the percentage of support from Dems as republicans (and given there are more registered Dems in Oregon than republicans that’s pretty significant

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/o...e-election-bid/

quote:

A plurality of Independent voters, 34% support Drazan, 29% support Johnson, and 18% support Kotek. Among Republicans, 80% support Drazan, and 9% support Johnson, while 71% of Oregon Democrats plan to vote for Kotek, 17% express support for Johnson.

Regardless of how this works out I think Dems gotta get more conservative is going to be the overwhelming media narrative

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

gimme the GOD drat candy posted:

that's the media narrative even when dems win.

Yeah it’s just funny that when a conservative third party draws dem votes it’s “we need to get more conservative” and when more left voters go third party it’s “they were fooled by the evil independent and btw we need to get more conservative”

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Grandpa Palpatine posted:

the AOC sex tape is going to be the most overhyped, boring bullshit ever

it'll be 8 minutes of starfishing

Huh I don’t know what I expected starfishing to mean but it means exactly what it sounds like so hey fun new term

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Chamale posted:

There are only about 1,000 prisoners in federal prison for simple possession of cannabis, so Biden just freed 0.1% of the prison population. Progress!

That can’t be right

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Coolness Averted posted:

I believe it because of the way they play word games to pad sentencing and also the way folks handle shadow markets for illicit substances.
Like did that potsmoker ever give some to a friend? Did that friend ever pay them back? Congrats, we've now got a dangerous drug dealer behind bars.
Not to mention the majority of people arrested on simple possession would probably be in county or state lock-up.

With cannabis, you don't have quite have the same 'addict becomes a downstream seller to pay for their own fix' you see with meth or heroin, but I actually know some incredibly dumb college kid who may even still be in jail for federal drug dealing charges because he was 'the guy' for his buddies and it covered his habit. When his dealer got busted, the dealer turned state evidence and got a ton of dumb kids sent away.

Found this on Google and it’s old as hell but also loving lmao

https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/backgrounders/RG-simple-possession.pdf

quote:

• Nearly all (91.5%) simple possession of marijuana offenders were apprehended at or near the U.S./Mexico border, possessing a median amount of 48.5 pounds—an amount that does not appear to correspond to simple possession.2

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

docbeard posted:

"What about all these peoples' records that are preventing them from getting jobs?"

Good news, a pardon does not in any way expunge your record and no hiring manager who cares about a weed conviction is going to care any less about a pardoned one.

There’s also the fact that plenty of places screen for arrests rather than convictions so lol

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

FistEnergy posted:

hurry up already

You can’t rush it. You’ll get a much better hilarious wipe-out if you let rising gas prices and economic instability simmer for a while longer

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Oregon is looking dangerous for the Dems. I thought for sure they’d go for a 5-2 gerrymander and shore up their weaker districts, but they went for a real aggressive 6-1 lmao now there’s a chance Oregon’s congressional delegation in 2023 could be 3 Ds/4 Rs

This in addition to a very real possibility of a Republican governor

That would be outright embarrassing for them in my opinion

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

bedpan posted:

Dems would adore a republican governor and are actively working to secure a 3D/4R congressional delegation split.

How can any of this be embarrassing for them if not only is this a situation they have worked hard to create, but that any potential "losses" would provide yet more ammunition in the fight against the non-right wing aspects of the democratic party?

I did typo there it would actually be 3/3 and not 4/3 but otherwise lol yeah

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

HallelujahLee posted:

not that they would be that smart but it can be that their wanting to wait till after midterms to axe it

There’s also not really a ton to be gained ideologically out of spiking it other than spitting in Biden’s face. Maybe they’ll do it for that reason alone, but there are much bigger fish to fry on the conservative movement agenda and they may not care to bother one way or another with this one. Who knows

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Coolness Averted posted:

Oh on that topic does it look like the 3-4 state governments for a constitutional convention are in play? Or are we gonna have to wait until 2024 for that?

I think that just like with everything else a constitutional convention is one of those things that should the republicans ever find themselves with the magic number all of the sudden just enough resistance would materialize to squash it

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

1glitch0 posted:

Why do you think that? Tge republicans aren't crems. They want to do things.

Maybe. I’ve been wrong before. But a constitutional convention is so destabilizing I don’t think the moneyed interests are going to be behind it and while the Republican Party has definitely purged more of its center then the Dems have I think there’s enough there to get a rotating villain or two if they need to kill it. Similar to the Obamacare repeal where I don’t think they actually wanted to do it but they had to throw the bone to their base so they got a handful of senators to kill it. I mean, the same forces at work behind the scenes of the Democratic Party are also at work behind the scenes of the Republican Party, and maybe not quite as influential but they’re still there

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Coolness Averted posted:

The same logic was used about Roe tho. Like the common wisdom was they used it as a fundraiser just like the dems and didn't want it off the table. While there's definitely an element of the GOP who think like that the inmates are running the asylum now, especially at the state level.
I'd find an overreach argument more compelling tbh. Like they're not gonna do the dem thing and send out mass emails of "John please if we just control 2 more states I promise you we'll do our agenda! Donate now to this out of state race..." However if they actually get to constitutional convention control of states and they're loudly proclaiming it's to seize the assets of non-patriots and kick out CA and NY then we might see the moneyed interests step in and stop it -or enough voter backlash to turn a few states mixed vs republican controlled.

Right, which is why McConnell and Pelosi worked hard to sink that. I remember having arguments with an acquaintance over FB about that maneuvering in October 2020, and the lib insisted poo poo like the procedural votes weren't theatre abd Nancy absolutely wanted to get everyone more money and was going to send out more checks than the lovely half measure just as soon as Biden won.

Repealing Roe isn’t destabilizing in the way that a constitutional convention going off the rails would be. Roe repeal hurts a lot of people for sure, but it doesn’t cut into the core economic stability of the moneyed interests.

That’s why I think Obamacare repeal is a better analogue. That law sends a ton of money to insurance companies and their Wall Street backers, and when push came to shove just enough Republican senators killed the repeal

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Private Cumshoe posted:

They forgot to legalize weed and they're going to lose the senate because of it lmao

Lol I was curious so I was looking at Halloween candy last time I was at the grocery store and the loving 2lb bag of Halloween sized candies I usually pick up to give to kids is $17 this year lmao. I think it was $10 last year

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Ardennes posted:

Yeah, if the GOP can keep PA, they will probably pick up at least another seat elsewhere.

What do you think Biden will be willing to trade for more Ukraine funding and eventually a stimulus package?

He’ll probably offer up Medicaid and SSDI

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

the bitcoin of weed posted:

joe bidens democrats would rather lose the senate than legalize weedin anyway

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

I voted because there’s a neat proposal to completely redo city government with ranked choice voting and multi-member districts and I like that all the power brokers and business interests are loving terrified it might pass

My hope is that it passes and we start getting some loving hilarious cranks in office

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

pencilhands posted:

Im actually really excited about #1 in mass because they have to give back any budget surplus as tax refunds so its just stealing money from rich people and giving it to me

We have that in Oregon too. Everyone loves it even though it’s the dumbest policy. At least we stopped giving surpluses back to corporations a few years ago

There’s an option when you file your taxes to give your kicker to the schools but I can’t imagine anyone chooses it lol

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Minecraft Holmes posted:

i got one on my cell, poo poo took a solid hour lol

I got polled on my cell back in July, first and only time. My phone came up with Political Call and I was curious so I answered and it was a poll

2/10 would not answer for Political Caller again

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

HallelujahLee posted:

polls werent just off in 2016 i think were off in 2020 as well

Unless I’m misremembering they were pretty accurate for trump/Brandon but they really overstated democrats on all the down ballot stuff

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

fast cars loose anus posted:

They were wrong on both. A panel convened by the top trade association of pollsters determined 2020 was the biggest presidential miss in 40 years.

Here is the report

Here is some top-line stuff from the executive summary:

So if you're banking on "2020 polls were accurate, its fine, its not over-estimating Dems like 2016" you might be in for a rough time a week from tomorrow.

Or maybe they fixed it all. We'll see.

Oh huh. I appreciate the correction. Lmao yeah unskewing polls is just always a bad look but especially in 2022

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Mayor Dave posted:

TYT encouraging people to vote for fuckin Rick Caruso lmfao

They’ve captured the id of self-described progressives. Law and order ‘progressives’ are loving everywhere these days it’s absolutely wild

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

FistEnergy posted:

Yep we're having a lot of fun out here tonight

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1590163291254710272?t=1VDuzc3_zj50b61mt4I8zg&s=19

That one would be pretty grim though. kinda funny too

If Walker manages to lose a senate seat any other Republican with a pulse would have won that will be loving hilarious

Senator Herscle Walker would also be incredibly hilarious

Either way comedy wins

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Shear Modulus posted:

did fetterman lose

Not yet. He’s way up atm but long way to go

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Relentlessboredomm posted:

i genuinely cant tell if this is a joke or not

Iirc they’re one of a handful of states that don’t let the election clerks start processing ballots in advance of election day

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

PostNouveau posted:

Republicans in the Midwest have passed a laws disallowing counting mail-in votes until polls close, which allows them to take early leads and then make documentaries about how elections were stolen when the mail-in votes get counted after the day-of votes.

Going off memory so please correct me if I’m wrong but I believe most states don’t let you start counting before Election Day or even until after polls close, but a handful of states won’t even let you process and stage the ballots for counting until Election Day or even after polls close

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Mokelumne Trekka posted:

I'm glad Beto and Stacy can keep their superstar loser status

Warnock outrunning Stacy must be so infuriating for her

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

bedpan posted:

some say slavery is bad but many of the founding fathers owned slaves so even with this issue there is two sides

What’s funny is that there was no organized opposition but a handful of groups did come out against it and among the was the state sheriffs association

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Malloc Voidstar posted:

Oregon constitution if amended by measure 112, underlined is added:

Yeah it’s entirely meaningless in the grand scheme, as is that ballot measure that is meant to enshrine healthcare as a right (that one is losing lol), mostly just removing the embarrassing 13th amendment copy/paste

But like I said the funniest thing is the state’s sherifs association came out in opposition because yeah lol

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Lmao I was pretty sure Dems would wipeout but somehow Republicans managed to just completely blow it mf lmao

I’d be embarrassed for them if it wasn’t so funny

Doesn’t matter. We’re on the trajectory we’re on regardless

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

C-SPAN Caller posted:

Wouldn't that mean that an incarcerated person has the ability to work but can also choose not to? Since working requires consent of the worker. If anything wouldn't that put it under US labor laws and also mean prisoners could unionize theoretically, since they are no longer classified as slavery instead of labor?

What makes you think working requires consent? It’s a meaningless feel good ballot initiative

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

C-SPAN Caller posted:

Looking forward to the 6-3 Supreme Court ruling that due to the 13th amendment slavery is here to stay

That’s not really how it works. At least theoretically the federal bill of rights is meant to be a floor and not a ceiling. That said, measure 112 is mostly about removing embarrassing language from the state constitution, which honestly is a perfectly valid thing to do, and very intentionally written sloppily/vaguely

Nothing says that the “education, counseling, treatment, community service or other alternatives to incarceration” have to be in lieu of incarceration. Just that they are still acceptable. Reading the below why wouldn’t a sentence of 9 months and counseling be valid. That’s a sentence of incarceration and counseling. So if incarceration and counseling is valid, so is incarceration and community service, so in that case another valid sentence is incarceration and an alternative to incarceration (concurrently served) where that alternative is work release (but since you’re incarcerated your work release has to be supervised, preferably in the prison complex…

(2.) Upon conviction of a crime, an Oregon court or a probation or parole agency may order the convicted person to engage in education, counseling, treatment, community service or other alternatives to incarceration, as part of sentencing for the crime, in accordance with programs that have been in place historically or that may be developed in the future, to provide accountability, reformation, protection of society or rehabilitation.

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HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

What if Stacey Abrams and Beto and Charlie Crist were just in a band and toured everywhere instead of constantly being handed millions of dollars to lose elections

Especially if they solved a haunting or a crime or two on the side

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