Virginia is for Voters: Virginia State Elections thread

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Virginia is for Voters: Virginia State Elections thread

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Randalor posted:

So... is her name actually Princess Blanding, or is that just some odd nickname people gave her?

That's her real name, champ.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2021 17:48

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# ¿ May 23, 2024 03:47

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

I've noticed this guy being quite vocal and engaging in data analysis when looking into the Virginia race during these past couple of months. He's optimistic for the Dems, but I guess there are caveats.

https://mobile.twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455572762660151300

There are general complaints that T-Mac left it late to do GOTV work in the African-American communities, which might be based on outdated ideas on how those voters live and what they like.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1455585189745278986

And at least Fairfax is trying to do its part.

No matter what, I'm nervous.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2021 18:19

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

camoseven posted:

It's raining in most of the state. Is that good or bad?

I've always wondered if rain really affects turnout. I'm a weirdo, so I've waited in long, outdoor lines to vote. Then again, I've never lived in a place where voter suppression was in full swing and they made it as hard as possible to vote.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2021 18:31

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Sailor Jim posted:

Roanoke! A tiny island of blue awash in a sea of red.

My wife was very impressed with my witty comebacks.

It would suck if your wife hated your jokes.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2021 20:12

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

So if you peek in on the gossip that number dorks are posting, there's no clear signs of what the night will hold.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/lists/706696973345107968 (Thanks to Quorum for putting this list together.)

Good turnout in some heavy R areas. Good turnout in some heavy D areas. Worrying turnout in some minority-heavy neighborhoods.

And since you don't have party registration information, it's hard to tell if you're missing a big swing and/or how much people might have crossed over.

I suppose Youngkin really needs to blow past 2017 margins in his areas and it's not clear whether or not he's on pace to do that. It'll be also hard to tell until the count comes in how badly margins might have eroded in D-leaning areas like Henrico County.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2021 20:30

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1455644294094594049

Ugh. Heartburn fuel.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2021 22:46

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

McAuliffe basically knew everyone in the party already. Everyone was his buddy and/or arguably still owed where they were to him. He basically waltzed right back in on fundraising advantages and name recognition and didn't get truly tested. The two other primary candidates basically became invisible.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 01:22

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Mellow Seas posted:

Julian Castro on MSNBC making the impressively intuitive argument that "the centrist candidate losing reflects poorly on centrists, not progressives."

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 01:24

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Jack-in-the-Bach posted:

There's no real threat for them to take the house though, right?

If Youngkin wins, the GOP has almost certainly taken the House of Delegates.

Goodbye moderately progressive legislation. Hello STOP THE STEAL.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 01:26

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

TheScott2K posted:

Foy would have won

Yes. And this makes me livid.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 01:29

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Mellow Seas posted:

I guess a silver lining is that Democrats have a perfect case study, should they choose to consult it, in the 100% wrong way to respond to Republican dog whistles about education.

So what does this do for Trump? Basically, Youngkin managed to keep the guy at arm's length. That makes DJT less of a kingmaker, doesn't it?

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 01:32

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

TulliusCicero posted:

I think this is yet another Clintonite fumble at the In-zone than a Thanks Obama tbh

Is the state really flipping that hard? Or is it just Terry?

I don't see how Terry loses and the Dems otherwise keep the House of Delegates. I also have not seen anything saying that Ayala or Herring are outperforming T-Mac, so this is pretty close to a full red-flip.

Thankfully, the state senate was not up for grabs this year.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 02:03

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

TulliusCicero posted:

^

Also aren't millenials and Gen Z overwelmingly liberal? If we could ever take the reins of power from the Liches we could could get poo poo done, but

God this pattern of "Old Third Way liberalism snuffs out young leftists and allows idiotic Reactionaries to seize power" keeps playing out throughout the Western world lately

What's a safe state to move to if poo poo hits the fan? I live in MI, I assume Washington is most likely to balkanize with California if it came down to it right?

Because I don't want to live in the GOP's hellhole version of American Brexit

What do you think of New York?

Although, you really need to live in the NYC area for the full effect. And we're still full of finance people.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 02:17

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

TulliusCicero posted:

Silver linings here: even with a terrible bland third wayer the GOP barely won with a pretty publicly moderate guy who got a margin of Karens upset over Beloved

I think with a better candidate it's easily a reversal. T-Mac seemed to be making some pretty awful mistakes.

Also if Dems ACTUALLY HAD POLICY ACCOMPLISHMENTS by the end of the year and some real good executive orders we will be okay for 2022.

You are dealing with mainstream Democrats, many of whom have large donors to appease.

I'm pretty certain everyone's going to take the wrong lessons from this and just try to deliver more Clintonian means-tested measures to try to appease the suburbs.

I guess I'm going to have to continue trimming my news diet for a while. This feels incredibly depressing.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 02:28

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Willa Rogers posted:

wtf, NJ's practically tied with 29 percent of the vote in.

I know you want Dem blood, but NJ is not like Va. The counting in the Dem-heavy districts is slow.

Or at least that's what Weigel is saying.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1455709909098450959

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1455711340744503302

Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Nov 3, 2021

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 02:43

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

https://twitter.com/freedlander/status/1455703137273229315

The hits keep on coming.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 02:48

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

https://twitter.com/FOX9/status/1455715906252836864

Well, a potential progressive idea regarding poilce reform failed to launch. This is sad.

Farchanter posted:

I think that's a little premature. Virginia hasn't voted for a Republican president since 2004, and Biden won it by more than 10 points. I suspect Wasserman and others are correct that this augurs poorly for the Democrats nationally next year, but even the bluest states sometimes elect Republicans.

Hell, New Jersey elected Chris Christie *twice*. I don't think that's indicative of a broader conservative slide there.

e: this is about Virginia becoming chuddy. I share your worries about the US falling to authoritarianism Hungarian-style.

Youngkin admitted he would have disputed the 2020 election.

Being GOP now means you're on board with "stopping the steal." The GOP are on course to controlling the House of Delegates, the AG's office, the Lt. Governor's seat and the Governor's mansion. They almost certainly will try to deny any electoral result they do not like and I think you have to have Democrats gather ridiculous numbers of votes before they do not get away with it. There is no Dan Quayle equivalent who will step up and stop them this time around.

I'm feeling pretty dismal.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 03:11

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Willa, is there anyone you're tracking for the NJ race? I spoke too soon and it looks spicy in all the wrong ways.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 03:18

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Judakel posted:

With blue areas in it looks spicy?

I read on the NY Times that the Dems are likely to hold on, but I'm curious how tight the margins are getting.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 03:22

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

State?

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 03:31

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

It would really help my piece of mind if Murphy's vote total finally surpassed Ciattarelli's.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 03:35

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

https://twitter.com/RussOnPolitics/status/1455725129992912903

Yikes.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 03:37

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

No.

The era of split tickets is mostly dead. Generally, the Governor's party wins the House with him.

The Senate may be different.

The Senate still has a narrow Democratic majority. We'll see if that lasts.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 03:43

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Vorik posted:

Looks like India Walton lost massively to write-ins lol. The PA Judicial seats all seem to be going to GOP including maybe the Supreme Court one.

Christ.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 04:01

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1455735020614684672

All us Dems are going to get hooked on copium.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 04:25

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

The NY Times has been maddeningly quiet on NJ.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 04:28

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Sanguinia posted:

Don't buy it. Looking at the votes yet to be counted and the margins, I don't see how its possible, which is why Better Dave called it hours ago. But its going to be very close. People who were talking about a 5% R win were pulling the trigger way early. Its going to be 2% max I think, and more likely less.

I guess this explains Wasserman thinking it's going to be a split House of Delegates?

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 04:42

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Nix Panicus posted:

I invested a few bucks on predict-it so now I'm fully engaged.

I've seen articles that say mail in voting hasnt been fully counted in NJ, and nobody seems to know where or what proportion of mail ins are left outstanding so Murphy could actually be up thousands of mail in ballots right now. Is that cope or does that check with whatever you're reading beyond NYT?

NJ is apparently incredibly slow to count and it does sound like the mail-ins are either not completely part of the count or may be completely uncounted.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1455740106694922244

Appropriate for the home of the Sopranos, I guess.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 04:56

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

TulliusCicero posted:

People got to stop saying this poo poo. COVID is not ebbing: Republican and FYGM dipshittery, along with anti-vaxxer nonsense is going to keep this poo poo going. Numbers keep going up in many states. They actively spread it because it hurts Biden, because they are death cultists.

This is pretty much it. Trump didn't get to last long enough to push the vaccines, so vaccines are now a Democrat/Lib thing.

And even Democrats are getting sick of precautions and want to just reopen everything and if you aren't willing or able to get a shot, "screw you, having the kids in my home instead of at school is driving us to the brink."

VitalSigns posted:

Even Hillary won Virginia, he did even worse than her lol.

2016 was more of a shock because Trump was more unthinkable as a president than a polite sweater-vest greed avatar is as a governor, and because it was obvious how bad McAuliffe was loving up way more than her (her lead in Virginia was never really questioned) but I was still surprised he managed to actually lose a state that Biden, Hillary, and Northam won handily

To be fair, Hillary didn't perform as well as expected in Virginia either. She had Kaine, who is (or at least was at the time) liked in the state, and it was still kind of a squeaker.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 15:02

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

OctaMurk posted:

I don't the issue is Democrats lose because they pushed "woke" but because Republicans defined what "woke" means to the public, and then successfully tied Democrats to it.

I think this is pretty key. This is the same dynamic affecting BLM and "defund the police" and immigration and the Dems apparently have no competence in fighting this phenomenon.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 15:51

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Red posted:

South Jersey might as well be the deep south. It's weird, because labor unions are big there, but have no connection to anything leftward.

What kind of unions? I imagine you'd encounter a lot of hostility to certain progressive policies depending on the industry sector.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 16:30

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Mellow Seas posted:

Nah, Murphy is still going to win easily. (Essentially tied at 88% reported with mostly mail-in votes to go.) Embarrassing blunder, though.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455941817673953288

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 18:07

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/nyregion/republican-election-results-new-york.html

The Times had a report on the setbacks Democrats had last night in New York.

It sounds like the GOP was really able to ride the anger at bail reform to some big successes. I'm still amazed that the Democrats have not been able to form any repsonse to that. The GOP basically worked with police departments all over the state with a standard cut & paste social media update (that individuals spread around as well) playing up how 3rd+-degree sex offenders wouldn't have to pay bail anymore (which of course ignores the fact that getting arrested and being actually guilty are two different things) and I think it really worked.

I still don't get why the voter access ballot initiatives failed either. Lack of urgency and thinking they spoke for themselves without a PR campaign to back it up?

I know this all sounds super melodramatic, but I look at how this world is going and often think of Yeats saying "The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity."

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 20:34

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

RBA Starblade posted:

Lmao

I'm a little tempted to give Hoyer the benefit of the doubt (although maybe he doesn't deserve it). I'd rather they at least keep course instead of turning into even bigger cowards and cutting the reconciliation bill altogether out of panic.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 21:41

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Red posted:

For us.

A lot of people apparently love 1950's Jesusland, where the poor and minorities don't exist!

We'll all be driving Mustangs and listening to white blues rock blasting on the radio!

# ¿ Nov 3, 2021 23:15

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

TulliusCicero posted:

The everpresent issue is that the majority aging electorate just want to go back to normalcy before Trump and COVID.

They want barbecues with their embarassed Republican friends, they want their grandchildren and children who refused to talk to them for 4 years to visit them again, they want to do whatever they want and sail their boat. They think Trump is the aberration. With him gone, they can go back to punching that ticket for their Republican golf buddy without fear. Politics are something they politely argue with friends over, like sports, because they feel it doesn't affect them.

The US is a very wierd place historically where one of the biggest divides socially is generational. Boomers and Gen X want status quo and normalcy with a tinge of the ole American fascism, Millenials and Zoomers are their eternal serfs Singing the Song of Angry Men. And we don't have the voting bloc numbers on our side for turnout despite being the bigger bloc as a whole, soooo here we are

I always thought that Gen-X was transitional, with younger Gen-X being just as "liberal" as Millennials and Gen Z, but I might be mistaken.

I just don't like being lumped in with the Boomers just because most of my economics teachers were Milton Friedman cultists and I had to learn a lot more stuff on my own.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2021 01:51

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Gatts posted:

Like did the DNC decide the best thing was to stop the good work in Virginia and so sabotage the state?

Is that the DNC's call or McAuliffe's?

I'm not sure what you're imagining, but the DNC didn't have to put a finger on the scale to get McAuliffe nominated. His pre-existing relationships with the Virginia Democrats did that work for him. I don't think they really interfered with his local campaign strategy either.

McAuliffe almost certainly thought that what worked for him in 2017 (being amorphous) would work for him again.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2021 16:10

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Police_monitoring posted:

I'd advise not voting democrat party

Well, you're part of the police! Of course.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2021 21:05

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Twelve by Pies posted:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/577917-manchin-threatens-zero-spending-in-blowup-with-sanders-reports

Am I correct that's from October 21? God knows what's happening now.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2021 21:18

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# ¿ May 23, 2024 03:47

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Twelve by Pies posted:

It's from a couple of weeks ago, yeah. Still, if Manchin said "We shouldn't be spending any money at all" and that he was comfortable with it (he mentions it would make inflation worse), I can't imagine he's changed his mind on the issue.

Last I heard Sanders is still pretty upset that the bill contains huge tax cuts for the rich, especially since the idea that "it won't cost anything" was that the spending would be paid for by raising taxes on the wealthy.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/580116-progressives-declare-victory-in-spending-bill-fight

I know the Hill's about as reliable as a British Leyland vehicle, but I guess something's going forward?

# ¿ Nov 4, 2021 21:29

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