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The global economy is going to be less global going forward. Companies are moving away from horizontal international supply chains and towards vertical integration and more regional supply chains. This is less efficient and everything will cost more. To stop inflation they’ll raise rates to cause demand destruction which isn’t working so far. Because it’s service demand bring destroyed. But all the other countries are also raising rates and capital is moving back into the states. This is to say raising rates will eventually cause overseas demand destruction too. It will stop inflation eventually but this is all very very bad. And more bad for places that aren’t the US.
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Jun 21, 2022 04:07
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Jaxyon posted:In other news, I’m not sure what I think about swimming and trans athletics. Here’s an example. A good d 1 men’s 500 is pushing 4:05 -4:10 the women are about thirty seconds behind like 4:30 to 4:40 in the finals. That’s a large difference, like 50 yards ahead. A throughly mediocre men’s swimmer, like me for example when I was competing might be in that 4:40 range. Hell I remember early high school boys that were down to 4:40 at states. Anyway the point, solid persistent 30 second difference between the top men and top women in the 500. Transition changed her (Lia Thomas’ ) 500 by only 15 seconds. She was a good swimmer before transition and after. The argument is that puberty as man confers a permanent advantage. They’re basing that on the divergence than occurs in boys vs girls times at puberty. They’re going to be able to look at huge amounts of data to reach and support that conclusion. So it’s two things at odds. Trans women are women and we should treat them as such in society. Transwomen at the elite level in swimming probably do have a real and significant advantage even after hormone levels are made equal. I feel like there has to be some other solution than, she can’t compete. But I’ll be damned if I can think of anything that isn’t extremely problematic in either direction. It’s also going to be interesting to see when we get transwomen who transitioned before puberty competing at the elite level in swimming. It’s a loving mess.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:04
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Automata 10 Pack posted:How about you let her perform because who gives a gently caress. It’s a sport. Let them have the advantage. Lots of cis women who swim competitively do. The people swimming at that level have often been doing it for nearly 20 years in college. A day on a spring training trip at the college level might be 13 miles of running, two hours practice, weight lifting, two more hours of practice repeat the next day. Like a marathon and a half plus lifting everyday for a week basically. She’s putting that in too. But at that level nothing that would give that much of advantage is allowed.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:49
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Twincityhacker posted:Maybe you should just go gently caress yourself. How rigidly do you want "womanhood" defined to compete in woman's sports? Oh yeah it’s a loving problem with a horrifying history. I think back, would I have fought for this person to swim if they had been on my team, yes. But is the decision being made by governing body the one that is fair to the competitors as a group, yes. Rigel posted:Why have women's divisions? Just make it open and eliminate men's and women's sports. There would be no competitive women swimmers with no male / female division. You can search NCAA times. https://www.usaswimming.org/api/Rep...leDownload=true What you’ll notice is that for all events the number 1 woman doesn’t make the top 100 men. The gender disparity is particularly large in swimming. Though it does narrow on longer events, like the 1000 or 1650 (but it does not disappear). Edit: having done some competitive fighting too... the gender gap is larger in swimming Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Jun 23, 2022 |
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Jun 23, 2022 04:18
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Bel Shazar posted:Why do you assume there would only be one group within which all would compete? It's possible to sub-segment a population without relying on something as arbitrary and ill defined as gender. Unfortunately that’s not going to work with swimming at the elite level because it isn’t an arbitrary division. Again you can look at the top times reports which show the top 100 men and women in each event. https://www.usaswimming.org/times/otherorganizations/ncaa-division-i/top-times-report What other criteria are you going to use that doesn’t exclude women? No woman of any body type, weight, or hormone level in any event makes the top 100 men. Lia Thomson doesn’t either. This is probably unique to swimming as a sport. Also to be clear here I think there should no restrictions at all for anything that isn’t like d1 or higher.
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Jun 23, 2022 05:01
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Tnega posted:Suppose for the sake of argument an individual that is 8.5 feet tall. Much like gender dysphoria, this is a medical condition. Now suppose they have treatments that negate the other health issues that stem from that condition. It is not hard to assume that there are sports they would be very competitive at. Should they be allowed to compete at all, or should there be another category specifically for individuals of unusual size. I’m 5-10 and was built like a brick poo poo house. This is to say big loving thighs not the wide shouldered narrow waist swimmers build. I used to be able to kick a 100 (in 54) so within about four or five seconds of what I could swim it free style. I’m not the right body type and it limited my competitiveness with a pretty hard ceiling. We aren’t talking about sports in general. This is swimming specifically and yes there is a specific build for it and goofy looking genetic lottery winners built like Phelps are more competitive. But the argument is that the genetic lottery winners get that body in male puberty. Tnega posted:Now suppose we advance genetics a bit farther and parents can use genetic treatments to increase the probability that their offspring will have beneficial traits for sport. In this thought experiment the treatment actually works, and works well. However, the treatments are only available to families who have $100,000 of disposable income. If this situation occurs, would not the top 100 in sport X not be determined by generational wealth, rather than individual talent? In this world would you separate those with genetic treatments into their own division? Yes if there were a clear advantage supported by the times of those competitors.
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Jun 23, 2022 05:32
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Koos Group posted:Interestingly, women have an advantage over men in marathon swimming, but not regular swimming events. As far as I know marathon swimming is the only physical sport where women's performance exceeds men's, but I'm not at all certain. Open water swimming is different. I don’t know enough about it, I did a bit it but only as a side thing like polo was a side thing. I do know Diana Nyad makes the male puberty argument. Honestly I should get into it because age also is much less relevant in marathon open water. Kalit posted:Just ballpark spitting here, but for swimming specifically, what about different categories such as lung capacity? Probably could use other measurements, but that seems like an important one. I don’t have any data for you here other than personal anecdote . We used to do competitions about that at the Academy, I could hold my breath for 5-6 minutes under water not doing anything just staying submerged. That was quite good but other swimmers could go 30 - 40 seconds longer. I could swim about 150 yards underwater without coming up. Never seemed correlated to times. I mean there was always practicing breathing patterns. But the nationals qualifiers, those guys didn’t seem to give a poo poo or have it matter. Every other stroke breath patterns.
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Jun 23, 2022 05:56
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DeadlyMuffin posted:So? I think that if we don’t have a lovely society this question eventually goes away. If trans kids don’t have to go through the wrong puberty this ceases to be a question. It is only that our society loving sucks and trans kids don’t get the right puberty that this is a problem and basically just in this sport.
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Jun 23, 2022 06:03
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Yeah that’s the poo poo. I wanna swim that channel.
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Jun 23, 2022 06:10
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Kalit posted:So, honestly, I don't know much about swimming, but I don't think holding your breath underwater is a very scientific way to measure lung capacity. Using something like a spirometer seems like a better way to measure it. I’ve had mine measured clinically (it was high) a couple times for coaches, cause I did 200, 500, and 1000. That was middle school and early high school though. I ended up with the wrong build and got relatively slower as I grew so coaches stopped caring lol.
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Jun 23, 2022 06:53
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:If there wasn't a trans woman doing well in it, exactly zero of the people upset about it would give a poo poo about women's collegiate swimming. It's a naked cudgel, dude. You're getting roped into reactionary bullshit and entertaining it is pointless because answers don't actually matter to the people asking the question The fight always causes reaction. I am also worried about that. I don’t particularly care about the media or right wing nut jobs asking the question, gently caress them. I am interested in swimmers, particularly ones I know.
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Jun 23, 2022 07:14
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Ghost Leviathan posted:If we have to choose between having competitive sports and accepting trans people, then it's time for sports to end. Yeah but that isn’t the choice. This only matters way out on the tail. D2, D3 anything it’s not a problem I think.
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Jun 23, 2022 07:21
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some plague rats posted:If you don't care about "the media or right wing nut jobs asking the question" then why are you asking the exact same questions they do? Because this is what I hear from women who are swimmers I know.
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Jun 23, 2022 07:22
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Jaxyon posted:Katie Ledecky did it almost 10 seconds faster literally 5 years ago, and is built in what some would consider a more "masculine" body type than Lia, and she is cis. Yeah she (Lia) is good but not like a Phelps or a Summer Sanders. And I don’t think even Katie Ledecky would make it into the current mens five hundred top one hundred either but I’d have to check that. I think something else that needs to be understood is that swimming isn’t really that much of a spectator sport outside the Olympics, too. Also given the time investment and effort the sport requires this is an identity so all the people involved on either side of this very much have this is what I do and who I am going on. There is also outside of the olympics basically no money at stake in the sport outside of scholarships. Swimmers are in it for the swimming basically.
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Jun 23, 2022 19:01
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Majorian posted:They sat on their hands for fifty years, through Electorate is radically different from fifty years ago. That’s mid seventies. Way more white Christian and religious.
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Jun 25, 2022 02:56
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Majorian posted:Those voters voted red because they employed direct action and forced their party to become responsive to their preferences. Also they had a massive amount of billionaire cash behind them, which progressives regrettably do not. Yeah that’s what needs to be done. But the problem is we also need to not become a fascist state too, which is a real danger in the near term.
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Jun 25, 2022 04:38
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Majorian posted:Yes, that is kind of the top priority, but here's the problem: can we keep that from happening by staying within the American two-party electoral system? Or is that a dead-end? I think it's a dead-end, and the only way out of this is by breaking out of our corrupt, sclerotic system. That’s much much more dangerous than you think though. We could be much much worse than we are. I’m not sure most people get the scope of what we could do as a truly bad actor in the world.
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Jun 25, 2022 05:16
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Majorian posted:It seems pretty likely to me that by continuing the "VBNMW" strategy and trusting in the Democratic Party to defend our rights, we're still going to end up with the worst-case scenario: a fascist America. We are already a truly bad actor in the world - there are ways in which we could be worse, but we'll probably hit those targets once the Republicans consolidate full control over the government anyway. So we need to be prepared to take a chance and try something new when the old strategy has failed us time after time. It’s probably too late. They had to act and they didn’t get enough of the senate. Any sort of movement to force them to change will take longer than needed. Now it’s chance and circumstance that things will turn on.
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Jun 25, 2022 06:02
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Stringent posted:compared to the heyday of american labor organization in the 1930s and 40s you could make a case for describing the current generation as effete. it wouldn't necessarily be the word i'd choose, but you could definitely make a case for it. “Ain’t got it in them” the parents of the WWII generation talking about their children in “And keep your powder dry”
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Jun 25, 2022 16:25
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BiggerBoat posted:Someone brought up reservations as a work around and I had a really stupid idea. This is a thing already I think.
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Jun 25, 2022 16:32
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Rigel posted:It is possible, I suppose, depending on the circumstances. We have a robust tradition of direct action in this country. From sit ins at lunch counters to literally chopping up bars to pieces with a hatchet.
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Jun 25, 2022 20:16
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They need to pack the court and almost certainly can’t.
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Jun 25, 2022 20:53
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Rigel posted:You are talking about people possessing a terrifying amount of police and military power with almost Godlike modern surveillance capability. We have a robust history of direct action leading to changes in this country. Prohibition and the civil rights movements are examples. Are you going to continue to pretend that isn’t possible?
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Jun 25, 2022 23:59
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Kraftwerk posted:Back then they didn’t have a mass media apparatus that can beam propaganda directly into everyone’s brains via social media and cellphones. Nah that’s not the difference. The difference is communities. Those were church and organization driven. Already existing communities decided to do those things. Not randos gathering.
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Jun 26, 2022 00:10
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BiggerBoat posted:Except now, if I'm being honest, I don't see how things would really be all that different if Trump had beaten Biden. I really don't. And I can't honestly argue in good faith that he wouldn't have done a better job. That's hosed up. Yesterday Stephen Miller thanked Trump for protecting white babies. The Supreme Court makeup is the consequence of lost presidential and senate elections, victories of right wing electoralism. “ I don't see”. The material consequence are going to be right in front of you. The horrors for women’s health without legal abortion , in the past those were not in a social media era. Hysteresis, when effect lags cause significantly makes it hard to see. And the right exploits this.
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Jun 26, 2022 17:20
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:It’s bizarre demanding people “hold their nose” and vote for candidates who will to further suppress the left. It’s bizarre to advocate for anything that would allow a openly fascist party to win.
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Jun 26, 2022 17:24
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speng31b posted:This only makes sense if you genuinely believe Democrats are significantly less fascist. If you take their agenda at face value of course they are, but that's not the lived experience of many Americans. I grew up in Florida and my family lives there. I live in Washington state. Democrats are significantly less fascist materially.
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Jun 26, 2022 17:25
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Okay, explain how voting for centrist Dems will prevent that? Any election win by a Republican is a fascist win. The Dems are merely the status quo of a capitalist republic. Both aren’t great. But they aren’t the same and the “finding out “ stage on that is going to really suck.
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Jun 26, 2022 17:29
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FizFashizzle posted:It is very difficult to take arguments like this seriously when the leader ship that created the current version of the democratic party which has allowed all of this to go on for decades without any meaningful resistance are still in power with no pressure to relinquish it. Right and we should be doing direct action, in the traditions of direct action (eg abolitionism, suffrage, prohibition, civil rights) in our country right now to change that. It’s probably too late.
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Jun 26, 2022 17:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It will be interesting to see if they ever get a clear explanation for that. There was a hypothesis that people felt that "shutdowns = bad economy" or that people assumed everyone else was doing way worse than they were because of pandemic aid, but there haven't been major shutdowns or significant changes to pandemic aid for almost 2 years, so those theories seem to be out the window. Here’s the best way to think about it: Buncha places you still can’t get adequate childcare at any price. If you need that and cannot get it and your income and expenses are still fine, you think the economy is still utter poo poo. And it is because you cannot get the goods and services you consider needs. That the metrics are missing that is a problem with the metrics.
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Jun 26, 2022 23:02
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Automata 10 Pack posted:Lol Comey is living a chill life and is not feeling any guilt whatsoever. He has literally never examined or admitted the irony of his actions, which is pretty un loving forgivable when you use Reinhold Niebuhr as your posting handle.
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Jun 27, 2022 20:20
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:No. All the states with weird fetal protection laws require intent or neglect on the part of the mother. An ectopic pregnancy is out of her control. Yes because of abortion bans doctors may be more hesitant to ask questions and women might be more hesitant to answer questions that might identify dangerous conditions like an ectopic pregnancy early to avoid collecting information in lovely states. Are you married or in a cis relationship , if you are ask your wife or parents what questions do they always ask at a gynecological visit they might not ask now.
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Jun 28, 2022 01:38
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I can totally understand how people would be worried. But, currently, 0 states (even the strictest abortion bans) have criminalized having an ectopic pregnancy and the Hobbs decision does nothing to criminalize or even allow states to criminalize it. That's just from a factual and legal standpoint. It doesn't mean people shouldn't be worried, but that is the actual situation as it stands right now. The social effects yer ignoring the social effects.
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Jun 28, 2022 01:39
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Fox News is running very detailed how to get plan B and emergency contraception articles.
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Jun 28, 2022 02:15
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I AM GRANDO posted:What’s the inference here? That they’re trying to give people bad advice? I can’t imagine very many of their viewers menstruate. Most probably never did. They have readers who are conservative women in affected states, I’d imagine they are responding that demographic.
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Jun 28, 2022 02:20
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Mendrian posted:There is no inappropriate anxieties about this situation. Already seeing texts between nurses in the healthcare worker thread about it happening.
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Jun 28, 2022 04:17
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Mendrian posted:Republicans want to bring American back to a 1950 that never actually existed, I think honestly they want to visit an alternate timeline where Civil Rights never happened. A term for this Revolutionary Romanticism, fascism is also a Revolutionary Romanticism.
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Jun 29, 2022 02:36
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So my wife was venting about the court ruling and then I was thinking about this thread and the discussion about the will X get prosecuted conversation... Some thing she said I think sums of the social effect side of this ruling: “It means they can come after you.”
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Jun 29, 2022 05:59
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:post roe laws already affecting access to medical contraception. To the.nuttiest ones all contraception is abortion I’ve even heard some say it about condoms.
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Jun 29, 2022 18:40
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Eric Cantonese posted:God struck down Onan for pulling out. Of course contraception is forbidden. You're trying to circumvent the will of God. That’s basically the argument, that anything that prevents a pregnancy is abortion.
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Jun 29, 2022 18:50
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