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Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Dick Trauma posted:

https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1574494476596396064?s=20&t=Xhv6jgZKvpH8nA3P4D7RYg

EDIT: It's hard for me to believe that this is real. Everything about it seems so immensely stupid.
Oz filmed an attack ad where he got the name of the grocery store wrong. PA is weirdly particular and defensive about their grocery store chains.
He then referred to a veggie tray as crudités, a phrase that I had literally never heard before.
Later he filmed himself working out at the Dallas Cowboy training compound for reasons that aren't really clear.

So, yeah, I absolutely believe that Oz is pulling in beloved Georgian Newt Gingrich to attack Fetterman on his Johnny Cash tattoo.

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Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Adpocalypse has been a slow rolling disaster for online content creation since 2017, unfortunately. VC startup money low-key patronizing your favorite podcasts, video essayists, and 60 second skit comedians has been great for viewers but not so great for the startups.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

From a content creator perspective (as observed by an outsider) it seems that moving away from slaving away for The Algorithm and producing content that you enjoy and patrons will support directly seems to be a much more fulfilling life.

The bad is that there doesn't seem to be nearly as much money from Viewers Like You, and certainly not enough to maintain the lifestyle of everyone whose currently making a living from content creation. But, that might change if not supporting creators meant you don't get whatever niche entertainment you enjoy.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Fart Amplifier posted:

It won't. It would just create another vacuum that will get filled and exploited.

People in general largely refuse to pay for the content/services they are provided. Companies like Google and Disney know they can maintain/grow a stranglehold on their markets because they know that, in isolation, the services they provide are not profitable. They can only be monetized by funding/bundling them with their other services (advertising, datamining, etc)
I agree that you're probably right, but there have been a few counter examples in some niches. Twitch streaming does seem to indicate that whales for content creators exist, you've got furry artists living off the patronage of furries, the TTRPG market supports some people despite not relying on the ad market money.

...But yeah, don't quit your day job and don't try to monetize your life, it's not going to be worth it.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

On a different note, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco released a study attributing up to 60% of the increase in the cost of housing to remote work:

"Remote Work and Housing Demand posted:

The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the way households work. Nearly a third of employees still worked from home part time or full time as of August 2022. This has significantly increased housing demand and is a key factor explaining why U.S. house prices grew 24% between November 2019 and November 2021. Analysis shows that the shift to remote work may account for more than half of overall house price increases and similar increases in rents. This fundamental evolution in work-related housing demand may be important for future house prices.
This has sparked a lot of articles with click bait-y titles and 'The Fed is lying, it's greedy landlords' hot takes on Twitter. Setting that aside, the evidence in the study does seem pretty strong - there's a strong correlation between the areas that had a larger share of remote work before the pandemic (indicating that the area has a remote-friendly industry already) and the increase in house prices after 2019. An important thing that I think a lot of the hot takes and articles are missing is that the Fed isn't arguing that we should return to the office to make home prices go down, or even implying it. Rather, the study indicates that remote work is going to persist and is going to shape the housing market for the foreseeable future.

My take is that while increasing rates are going to decrease the demand for homes, the realignment caused by Covid-19 is going to offset that and there's still going to be a permanent increase in demand. We're not going to get the housing crash that people are waiting for and we're might not even get the market correction you'd expect. Just add it as one more thing to the pile of 'This economy is weird and the old rules don't apply anymore,' along with the permanent contraction of the workforce keeping unemployment low and increased demands for goods and services slamming into supply chain issues.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

tagesschau posted:

Demand isn't "I want a bigger house." It's "I want a bigger house and have the means to get one at a price the seller will accept." Interest rate hikes will handily turn the latter into the former if prices don't budge, so sellers are going to have to adapt.

It's not different this time. It never is.
The interest rate hikes are going reduce buyers' ability to afford housing, I'm not arguing against that. I'm arguing that a fundamental change in the market has occurred and anyone expecting prices to drop back to pre-2019 levels or what prices would have been without the pandemic are going to be disappointed. It'll slow the trend, but interest rate hikes alone aren't going to reverse it. Either we collective accept high housing costs, or governments have to take proactive measures to deal with it.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

I know it's a weird thing to get hung up on, but estimates max out at 30% of the US population being Evangelical, and only if you use a definite that includes black evangelical churches and denominations like 7th Day Adventist and Jehovah's Witnesses. Stricter definitions get an estimate of 6% to 15% of the population. It's nowhere close to 40% of the US.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

They're cool and interesting and fun to play with if you're into data science. But the number of times I've heard a variation of "So it turns out it was picking up whether someone with bipolar disorder was entering a manic phase..." makes me pretty leery of them, ethically.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

BonoMan posted:

Actually it might be TikTok now that you mention that.
There's been some accusations that TikTok's parent company used the app to track specific American individuals, but I don't know how serious/credible it is.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Young Freud posted:

Yeah, Twitter was already having an issue with high-profile, high-follower-count users leaving. When 10% of the Twitter population, but are responsible for 50% of the content, begin leaving, then it's going to hard for Twitter to keep the other 90%.
It's one thing to get an inane thought from Shaq, he's Shaquille O'Neal. It's another thing entirely to get an inane thought from me.

But, I will step up to the challenge.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Tiny Timbs posted:

Some other dumb public site to post bad takes on, probably. Twitter wasn’t exactly a technological revolution, just a free service meeting a need that other businesses hadn’t quite figured out.
Honest answer? TikTok. Despite the xenophobic fear mongering, it's becoming increasingly popular as a source of news, especially for younger generations. Look forward to getting breaking news from a small team of skit comedians working for the New York Times.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Overall the results aren't great and we don't know the full damage yet, but it looks like the Red Wave didn't quite deliver. Senate stays in Democratic control for the next two years, and while Republicans are probably going to take the House, it's looking to be a single digit majority. A lot of races still left to be called though.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Also Doug Mastriano isn't my governor, so trans people and abortions will stay legal in PA for the time being.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

The GOP whip Scalise is already making a move for the seat and they don't even officially have the majority, so yeah, McCarthy is going to have a fun two years

Tibalt fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Nov 10, 2022

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

My favorite econ thesis are the ones advocating for the abolishment of <clearly obvious thing that exists only to exploit people's need for a necessary good>.

Insulin manufacturing, Private health insurance, private healthcare in general, a particularly spicy one on landlords...

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

davecrazy posted:

Will GA dems still turn out without it being the decision making seat?
They did last time Warnock was in the runoff, and Walker performed significantly behind Kemp. If the Libertarian voters split evenly and the Republicans that split the ticket on Walker don't show up, Warnock wins handily.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

The joke-that-isn't-a-joke is that you know a company is a dead man walking when they get rid of the free coffee. Elon Musk is claiming that he's getting rid of free lunches because it's ridiculously inefficient, and not because Twitter is about to go belly up and be sold for parts in a fire sale.

It's not a very convincing argument considering the context.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

rscott posted:

I know this is D&D and I will eat the probe if necessary but ahahahahahaha

https://twitter.com/ditzkoff/status/1593396857111302145?t=InEX7EU38_lR3pGOM85tUg&s=19
"No one signed the pledge? Not a single person?"

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Tibalt posted:

"No one signed the pledge? Not a single person?"
I was joking but people are claiming that Twitter is down to triple digit number of employees:
https://twitter.com/wyntermitchell/status/1593382511098269696

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

It's also, I suspect, an attempt to run the Clinton Crime Family again. After all, it stopped Hillary*, didn't it?



*White Water et al. probably didn't actually stop Hillary

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Gyges posted:

I'd argue that the current bad blood is mostly from the government repeatedly giving money in various forms to corporations in order to stimulate the economy or save jobs, only to :surprise pickachu face: when the corporations just turn around and do stock buy backs instead.
I feel like this came up a few times with 2008 bailouts - bail out money wasn't allowed to be used for dividends (or executive bonuses), but it didn't stop stock buybacks.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

If you're going to go for a compromise candidate because there isn't a single currently serving Republican Representative that can get 218 votes... Yeah, it would make the most sense to pick a figure that isn't currently serving in the House. But I think there has to be someone in the caucus that can get there when the alternative starts becoming a candidate approved by the Democrats.

Unless there's like, seven Rs that absolutely won't budge on putting up Gaetz as Speaker, I don't think it'll happen.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Kalit posted:

So... I haven't been paying too close of attention to the Speaker of the House/McCarthy topic, so forgive me if this has been already brought up. But even if 5+ Republicans vote in favor of someone else instead of "present" or whatever, wouldn't the most likely scenario be they continue to keep doing the roll call until enough people voting for another person get bored and leave, resulting in McCarthy winning?
I don't think this was specifically addressed, but the rule is a majority of the votes of the members present. So if 5+ Republicans leave, the Democratic candidate would get the majority of votes and become speaker.

That's why historically the vote to decide who becomes speaker is done behind closed doors during a caucus meeting, and the caucus as a whole is supposed to vote in lock step. Voting 'present' as a protest is usually acceptable as long as it doesn't cause trouble, but breaking with the caucus was punished with a loss of all committee assignments and removal of all seniority benefits for the offender (James Traficant in 2001 who voted for Hastert, and was later in the session expelled in an unrelated matter when he was convicted on 10 felony counts).

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

I thought railways already had a mechanism for the federal government to step in and dictate terms, which is why we're in the current situation where the White House is brokering the labor contract in the first place?

You don't need to nationalize it, just tell the railway companies that workers get two call offs a year or whatever extremely reasonable request is the current hold up now.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Halloween Jack posted:

Those approval ratings are ridiculously high. Serious question: who is her base of support, and who among them isn't holding their nose and voting not-a-Republican?
Theoretically, it's AZ independents, the sort of voters who loved John McCain's Maverick persona where he clashed with his own party in pursuit of bipartisanship and the good of the country.

The problem is that McCain's independent streak was as much marketing as it was reality. It's not the 90s anymore, Arizona isn't the Barry Goldwater state these days, and Sinema doesn't have decades of incumbency to prop her up. So, really, she doesn't have a base at all.

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Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

small butter posted:

So do we know what might have set them off besides Fauci's retirement? Like, there wasn't that much discussion of COVID or Fauci around the summer but now it's everywhere on right wing Twitter.

Edit: Also, is there a good explainer about the right's obsession with gain of function research in Wuhan? Some say that "the NIH admitted it!!!" and others say "not so fast."
DeSantis recently announced his plan to make a federated CDC out of state health agencies with a couple of other chud governors. I believe that's the cause.

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