War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Here's to another eight months of dunking on Russia from afar with posts as Ukraine dunks on Russia with HIMARS.

# ¿ Oct 11, 2022 23:55

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 06:57

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Footage of a Russian convoy getting hit by rockets taken by a loitering drone (probably what was guiding the strikes). :nms:

Somehow the Russians are still bunching vehicles up in the middle of roads. :nms:

# ¿ Oct 12, 2022 12:56

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Yeah reading between the lines it really seems like they were flying along and the missile just dropped off.

# ¿ Oct 20, 2022 17:47

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/11/ukraine-sbu-traitors-russia-kharkiv/

quote:

KHARKIV REGION, Ukraine � The hunt for Ukrainians helping the Russians led the intelligence investigators to an idyllic village with a house on a hill, where the father of an accused traitor lives.

The man knew they wanted to talk about his son, Sergey, who was in jail awaiting trial for allegedly passing information to Russian forces on where Ukrainian soldiers and weapons were located in the city of Chuhuiv � a hotbed of military activity in the northeast Kharkiv region. Ukraine�s main internal security service, the SBU, considers Sergey an agent for one Russia�s special services, perhaps the FSB.

�I�ll be honest, boys,� the father told the officers, �in the first days, I was passing coordinates to my guys.�

But in a country where loyalties can be twisted, were his guys the Russians or the Ukrainians?

Even amid a war in which Moscow has targeted Ukrainian civilians and caused countless deaths, Russia has been able to recruit Ukrainians to aid its invasion. Sometimes it�s through blackmail. Sometimes it�s through payoffs. And sometimes Ukrainians are simply sympathetic to their country�s enemy � be it because of Soviet nostalgia or shared Russian language and ethnic identity.

Weeding out those moles and saboteurs is the SBU�s job. Officers from the counterintelligence department of the highly secretive agency recently allowed Washington Post journalists rare access to their daily work, which includes going into recently liberated villages and conducting what�s called �filtration� � interviewing locals about what happened under occupation and who might have collaborated with the Russians. At times, they are so close to the front line they up fighting alongside Ukrainian soldiers.

While the Ukrainian military fights the foreign foe in front of them, the SBU counterintelligence department�s main task remains looking inward for enemies � sometimes even within its own ranks.

In July, President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced the agency�s director after several senior officers were arrested and branded traitors. One such mole was recently uncovered in the Kharkiv office after he allegedly informed Russian security services about the time and place of a planned meeting between the Kharkiv mayor, the local SBU chief and the commander of Ukraine�s 92nd Mechanized Brigade � a high-value target for an airstrike.

�It�s hard to get used to it, even though it�s what we do every day,� said an SBU officer who asked to be identified by his call sign, Advokat, which means �lawyer.�

�You think how much damage this activity has caused � how many children, civilians, soldiers, brothers and sisters died and were injured because of it,� Advokat said. �How many were left without families and homes and forced to leave? When you remember that, it motivates you to expose the traitors as much as possible and bring them to justice.�

In a room at a downtown Kharkiv detention center, Sergey, the man facing treason charges for revealing the location of Ukrainian military bases, sat on a small stool and fiddled with his hands. Sergey agreed to an interview with The Post on condition that his surname not be used, but Advokat and prison guards remained in the room. Sergey admitted to sending screenshots of Google maps, with some spots circled, to a Russian cellphone number.

Sergey�s family lives in small villages near the town of Balakliya, a part of Kharkiv region that Russian forces occupied in the first days of the war. After his sister told him that Russian soldiers had stolen money from their father, Sergey said, he complained to a neighbor about being worried for his family�s safety. The neighbor gave him a Russian number to call and explain the situation, Sergey said. So, he did.

His father�s money was returned a month later, Sergey said. Then, Sergey received a message from the Russian number offering to �work together.� Sergey said he refused.

�The next day, they wrote that they know where my parents are,� he said. �They said that this is a war and anything can happen. And like this, they blackmailed me.�

The SBU counterintelligence department divides Ukrainians who work with the Russians into different categories. Those like Sergey, recruited while living in territory controlled by Ukraine, are considered agents. The most valuable agents are those with access to information, such as moles within the SBU or other government agencies. They are the hardest to expose, Advokat said, because they understand how the SBU operates and can better cover their tracks.

Then, there are collaborators: Ukrainians who cooperate with or help the Russians in occupied areas. But even those people are split into their own ranks. Some have pro-Russian views and eagerly aid the occupiers, for example, by revealing who in town served in the Ukrainian military. But there are others Advokat referred to as �invertebrates� � people bending to survive under difficult conditions.

When the Ukrainian military recaptures a city or town, SBU officers are the first ones in after them to begin the filtration process � weeding out the collaborators through interviews with locals, checking people�s phones and other means.

In early September, after Ukrainian forces expelled Russian troops from most of the Kharkiv region, Advokat and his colleagues entered the city of Kupiansk on the same day as the advancing soldiers.

The Russians had used the city as the seat of their regional occupation government, so the SBU officers went first to the abandoned local administration building. Inside, they found a list of people who had worked with the Russian-controlled authorities. The Russians retreated so fast, they had left it behind.

�There was so much work that we spent several nights there,� Advokat said.

In the Kharkiv region, which borders Russia and is predominantly Russian-speaking, both agents and collaborators are widespread. Many residents traveled to Russia frequently for work or still have relatives living there.

�You cannot suspect everyone,� Advokat said. �But over time, a certain professional deformation occurs when you start to suspect everyone.�

Sergey�s father was also a suspect. If the son had passed information to the Russians, maybe the father also helped the soldiers occupying his village. Speaking to the man outside his home, Advokat began a preliminary interview. The goal was to persuade him to come with them for a more formal interrogation back at their office. The father is not being identified because of risks to his safety and because he has not been charged.

Sergey�s father then told Advokat that he had been passing coordinates of Russian troops to someone in the SBU, even giving Advokat his contact�s first and last name.

�How did the Russian forces behave themselves?� Advokat asked him.

�You could say they were even respectable,� the father answered, speaking in Ukrainian.

�Did they steal from you?�

�Yes.�

�But you just said they behaved respectably,� Advokat responded, raising his voice.

The father then said Russian soldiers made some attempts to rape his wife, too, which earned another sarcastic response from Advokat about the man�s initial appraisal of the occupiers. He told Advokat that another soldier later came and gave him 50,000 rubles, about $820, and apologized for his colleagues who stole from him. For Advokat, that confirmed an exchange of money took place for Sergey�s services.

�How could I have not taken the money?� the man said. �Then they would�ve said that I was against them and would�ve done something else to me.�

After his village was liberated by Ukrainian troops in September, Ukrainian forces posted an air-defense system and an M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, near his home. The father even kept the shrapnel pieces from an airstrike the Russians delivered then.

Coincidentally, it was information on that very type of equipment�s whereabouts in Chuhuiv that his son had allegedly passed to the Russians.

The father told Advokat that he was a patriot who hated what his son had done and he agreed to come in and give the SBU his statement later in the week. Outside his home, he and his wife allowed the SBU officers to inspect their phones, and Advokat said there didn�t appear to be anything suspicious. But Advokat refrained from making a judgment. There was still more to investigate � with this case and countless others.

�I will tell you honestly, he is my son, but he took five years off my life,� the man told Advokat.

�Why five years?� Advokat asked.

�Well, it�s this war, you know,� he answered. �I can�t stand to go through this again. I don�t want to see this filth. I can breathe freely now � and then I couldn�t breathe, believe me.

�I�m sorry,� the father added finally. �May God help you.�

# ¿ Nov 12, 2022 14:54

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1592668115078639617

# ¿ Nov 16, 2022 01:12

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Unrelated to everything else, but finally some good news for Mariupol!

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1592596951534817280

# ¿ Nov 16, 2022 02:08

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Russia and Ukraine are fighting the first full-scale drone war

The article itself has some good visuals but I'll post it here in its entirety because it's fascinating.

quote:

KHARKIV, Ukraine � A war that began with Russian tanks rolling across Ukraine�s borders, World War I-style trenches carved into the earth and Soviet-made artillery pounding the landscape now has a more modern dimension: soldiers observing the battlefield on a small satellite-linked monitor while their palm-size drone hovers out of sight.

With hundreds of reconnaissance and attack drones flying over Ukraine each day, the fight set off by a land grab befitting an 18th-century emperor has transformed into a digital-age competition for technological superiority in the skies � one military annals will mark as a turning point.

In past conflicts, drones were typically used by one side over largely uncontested airspace to locate and hit targets � for example, in U.S. operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

In the battle between Russia and Ukraine, drones are integrated into every phase of fighting, with extensive fleets, air defenses and jamming systems on each side. It is a war fought at a distance � the enemy is often miles away � and nothing bridges the gap more than drones, giving Russia and Ukraine the ability to see, and attack, each other without ever getting close.

Ukrainian forces have also used drones to strike targets far from the fighting � in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and in Russia�s Belgorod border region, according to multiple Ukrainian officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters but declined to say what type of drones were used. Russia has repeatedly struck Ukraine�s critical civilian infrastructure with self-detonating drones � a cheap substitute for high-precision missiles.

Drones have become so critical to battlefield success that at times they are used to take out other drones.

In early September, just days before Ukraine launched an offensive to expel Russian forces from its northeastern Kharkiv region, a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone flew through a gap between two jamming systems near the Russian border. It crossed into Russia and turned north across the Belgorod region, where Russia bases equipment to support its war in eastern Ukraine.

The drone spotted a base for Moscow�s own unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), according to overhead images captured by the Ukrainians that were later reviewed by The Washington Post.

In one frame, a Russian Orlan-10, with a trademark propeller on its nose, could be seen sitting in the field beside a house. Then in an �after� photo, the house had a hole in its roof, and an ambulance could be seen driving up. A Ukrainian attack drone had followed the same route as the reconnaissance drone � and delivered a strike on the fleet of enemy �eyes.�

The attack, which has not been previously reported, dealt a blow to the Russian forces� ability to see the Ukrainian offensive coming and to counterattack.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians deployed reconnaissance UAVs to mark the coordinates of Russian command posts, artillery batteries, electronic warfare systems and ammunition depots. Then, as Western-provided multiple-launch rocket systems fired on those targets, drones were flying again, redirecting the rocket fire in real time or confirming that it hit the mark. At times, combat drones delivered the blow themselves.

The Ukrainian strikes weakened the Russians and set the stage for Ukrainian soldiers to advance. When they did, drones were again hovering, allowing the operation�s commander to monitor the troops� progress on a live stream. �We had the full picture of the fight,� said Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the Ukrainian ground forces.

The result was a stunning Russian retreat.

�Two main developments are going to impact future war,� said Samuel Bendett, a military analyst at the Virginia-based research group CNA. �The proliferation and availability of combat drones for longer-ranged, more-sophisticated operations, and the absolute necessity to have cheap tactical drones for close-support operations.�

In Ukraine, that future is now.

�Army of Drones�

More than anything, drones put eyes on the battlefield. And to see the enemy�s moves, the Ukrainian military last spring created a unit of reconnaissance drone teams called �Ochi� � Ukrainian for �eyes.� Four-person teams are now spread across the eastern front, flying UAVs every day except when it rains.

In September, members of one such team squinted at their small handheld monitor and snickered. On the screen, they could make out several people in military uniform and a cart, in a cornfield across the Oskil River in a part of the Kharkiv region then occupied by Russians.

�They�re stealing the locals� corn,� said one of the Ukrainian drone operators, who for security reasons spoke on the condition that he be identified by his call sign, �Bars.� A few Russian troops weren�t worth an artillery strike, but the drone would keep watching in case they returned to a base.

Driving an unarmored car, an Ochi team picks a spot near the front line, plugs in backup drone batteries to a generator and fires up a Starlink internet connection, so everything they see can be streamed to nearby brigades.

Their drone, a Matrice 300 quadcopter weighing about eight pounds, and its accompanying parts, including monitors, costs about $40,000 � making it one of the cheapest tools of war.

It is these commercial drones � often small, relatively inexpensive and now ubiquitous � that make the war in Ukraine unique, providing unprecedented visibility and sharpening the accuracy of normally inexact artillery fire.

Military-grade combat drones such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 used by Ukraine, or the Iranian-made Shahed-136 deployed by Russia, are playing an expanded if more traditional role. But the most popular drone used by each side can fit in your hand � more a bug than a bird.

The small Mavic quadcopter, which like the Matrice 300 is produced by Chinese manufacturer DJI, costs less than $4,000 online. Yuri Baluyevsky, a retired general who served as chief of Russia�s armed forces, called it �a true symbol of modern warfare,� in a book on advanced military strategies published this year.

The use of Mavics is so widespread by each army that Ukrainian soldiers said they often don�t know if the drone they spot is friend or foe. If one hovers for too long rather than just passing by, that�s suspicious enough to warrant shooting it down.

DJI, the largest commercial drone producer in the world, doesn�t formally supply either Ukraine or Russia with Mavics or other UAVs. To distance itself from the war, DJI has suspended sales in Ukraine and Russia. But that doesn�t stop volunteers and charity funds from purchasing in bulk from retailers. The Ukrainians use the drones for reconnaissance but have also rigged them to drop small munitions.

As Ukrainian forces advanced in the southern Kherson region last month, a special forces unit recycled Coke cans into explosives to be dropped from Mavics onto mined fields � a low-cost way of clearing a path for their troops.

A more common use of Mavics, however, is a sort of psychological warfare. In Kharkiv, the volunteer Khartia Battalion uses them to unleash small, cylindrical munitions on Russian bases. The explosives can�t seriously damage a tank but can make the enemy paranoid, fearing a larger attack at any moment.

�We can make their lives a nightmare all of the time,� said Oleksandr Dubinskyi, a Khartia drone pilot.

The Mavic is just one drone in a vast swarm.

There are also EVO II drones, made by Autel Robotics, which like DJI is based in Shenzhen, China. A charity run by Serhiy Prytula, a Ukrainian TV star, has been buying up drones from all over the world � such as the German Vector UAV or the Cypriot Poseidon drone � so that the Ukrainian military can try them.

Senior Ukrainian and Russian commanders, many of whom trained together in Soviet times, used to be skeptical of drones. Now, they are rushing to train thousands of pilots.

Ukraine�s state crowdfunder, United24, has an �Army of Drones� initiative with contracts to buy nearly 1,000 UAVs, said Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine�s digital transformation minister. But that�s still not enough.

The goal, Fedorov said, is 10,000 drones flying along the vast front line, to broadcast the fighting without interruption.

In late August, Bars�s Ochi team was transferred to the Kharkiv area, assigned to observe the Russians and identify targets.

Typically, Ochi teams are in constant contact with an artillery unit � providing coordinates of Russian equipment or bases, and monitoring strikes in real time as colleagues carry them out. Ahead of the Kharkiv counteroffensive, the order was to watch and save up targets. Soldiers involved in the lightning push in the northeast said they had never seen so much aerial reconnaissance with such detail.

�The Russians were acting as if this was their home,� said another Ochi operator, who The Post agreed to identify by his call sign, �Felix.� �They were way too comfortable. And they had no idea what was coming.�

On Sept. 6, Ukraine�s Kharkiv counteroffensive kicked off � as did the strikes on targets Ochi had identified, such as ammunition depots and bases. �We were giving them a support picture � where to go or how to get around,� Felix said. �Wherever our guys went, we stayed with them.�

Production predicament

Every Ukrainian soldier has had a scary encounter with a Russian Orlan-10 � Russia�s premier reconnaissance drone, which also has electronic-warfare capabilities.

For Lt. Oleksandr Sosovskyy, a deputy battalion commander in Ukraine�s 93rd Mechanized Brigade, his occurred in late April, while traveling with four soldiers to a village near the front line in the Kharkiv region. After parking their car between two houses, he heard an eerie buzzing overhead. They couldn�t see their enemy, but the enemy could see them.

For the next several hours, shelling followed wherever they went. The soldiers tried to split up, moving around the village and ducking for cover. But the Orlan helped the Russians correct their fire. It was relentless and accurate. �They were trying to destroy the car and obviously destroy us,� Sosovskyy said.

In recent months, however, Sosovskyy has noticed there are fewer Orlans to fear. Before, the Russians would often have two flying at once � one for reconnaissance and one to correct artillery strikes. By summertime, hearing or seeing one, much less two, became rarer.

With the use of unmanned aircraft expanding, Ukraine and Russia are trying to ramp up domestic manufacturing of all types of drones. But a noticeable decline in Orlans has highlighted the challenges for Moscow on the production front.

The Orlan-10 is the Russian military�s workhorse in the sky, but it�s unclear how many are left. Many have been shot down, and there is little available data on production rates.

In September, after Russia�s forces were ousted from Kharkiv, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of Russia�s Vostok Battalion, lamented Moscow�s drone shortage.

�I have fewer people than I would like � but this is not the main difficulty. It�s the fact that for hours I cannot find the positions of the enemy from which they are hitting us,� Khodakovsky wrote on Telegram. �I can�t because there are no means of artillery reconnaissance.�

Col. Yurii Solovey, who heads air defense for Ukraine�s ground forces, said his unit has destroyed more than 580 Orlan-10s since Russia�s invasion began. �They�re starting to use some new drones instead, so that�s a sign to us that they�ve basically run out of the Orlans,� Solovey said. �But they still have to do reconnaissance.�

Alternatives are hard to come by. Russian military systems � especially drones � depend on microelectronic components produced in the United States, Europe and Asia, which Moscow now has difficulty procuring because of sanctions.

Russia�s Defense Ministry has acknowledged the shortfall.

�The Defense Ministry has developed appropriate tactical and technical requirements for unmanned aerial vehicles,� Col. Igor Ischuk told a government panel in September. �Most manufacturers, unfortunately, are not able to fulfill them.�

That gives Ukraine an edge, ramping up production in factories that tend to look like hip offices. Their locations have been wiped from Google Maps � for fear of airstrikes.

Homegrown drones range from miniature planes that can fly nearly 30 miles and drop a five-pound missile � such as the Punisher drone preferred by Ukraine�s special forces � to reconnaissance gliders. The goal is to produce 2,000 small combat drones in Ukraine per month by year�s end, said Fedorov, the digital minister.

Russia�s failures, however, are not just due to lack of hardware. Its experience highlights how drone warfare requires not just advanced equipment but a modern mind-set for decision-making.

Russia�s rigid chain of command requires soldiers on the ground to seek senior approval for strikes, said Pavel Aksenov, a military expert and reporter with the BBC�s Russian service. So even when a Russian reconnaissance drone spots a target, by the time the go-ahead comes through, the target often has moved.

Imported solutions

They heard the threat before they saw it.

As the rumbling drew closer, Ukrainian law enforcement officers in downtown Kyiv steeled themselves and raised their guns skyward, looking for the noise. When they spotted the white triangle through the clouds, they opened fire.

The Iranian-made Shahed drone, with an explosive warhead at its nose, �is a moped in the sky,� moving slowly and loudly before diving into its target, said Solovey, the head of air defense for Ukrainian ground forces.

The Shahed is Russia�s solution to its domestic production woes � a powerful drone bought from another country ostracized by the West. Ukrainian officials said Moscow has recently ordered more from Tehran.

Kyiv and its Western allies say that Russia has bought hundreds of the Shahed-136 drones and that Iranian trainers have traveled to Ukraine to help operate them. The Shaheds debuted in Ukraine on Sept. 20 and initially were used to terrorize southern Ukraine.

The drones have since wreaked havoc all over the country.

When the Kyiv police officers fired their guns into the sky on Oct. 17, one drone was shot down, but four others struck near a power station. One hit a residential building, which split in half and collapsed. Five people were killed.

The Shahed has few metallic parts and flies low, making it difficult to detect. Expensive surface-to-air missile systems, such as an S-300 or Buk, can take them out, but doing so wastes resources that Kyiv would rather use against Moscow�s high-precision missiles. Lately, Ukraine has scrambled fighter jets to shoot down Shaheds.

This frustrating choice is partly the point, said Aksenov, the Russian military expert � to exhaust Kyiv�s resources while conserving Russia�s own arsenal.

Ukraine was the first of the two sides to put foreign drones to use. And one � the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 � had a key role in provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin before the invasion.

Kyiv bought its first TB2s in 2019 and used the drones mainly for reconnaissance in its conflict with Russian-led separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. But on Oct. 26, 2021, with the front-line village of Hranitne under heavy shelling, a TB2 carried out its first strike, obliterating an enemy howitzer.

Putin later raised the incident in a phone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, calling Ukraine�s drone use �destructive� behavior and �provocative activity,� according to the Kremlin. In Moscow, the TB2s were used in propaganda about NATO arming Ukraine for attacks on Russia � part of the narrative to justify Putin�s invasion.

The TB2s, which cost about $5 million each, are the most powerful drones in Ukraine�s fleet and offered the first evidence of how UAVs could help Kyiv compete against Russia�s far larger, better-equipped military. The TB2 carries four laser-guided missiles and can fly for more than 24 hours at an altitude of up to 25,000 feet.

Before being used in Ukraine, TB2s featured prominently in conflicts in Libya and Syria, and played a decisive role in Azerbaijan�s victory over Armenia in the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Ukrainian military said in May that it was using TB2s to attack Russian bases and ships on Snake Island in the Black Sea, from which Moscow�s forces retreated in July.

Ukraine now has several foreign-made combat drones in its fleet, including U.S.-provided Switchblade self-destructing drones. But Bayraktars remain an icon, helping to spur a sort of drone fever in Ukraine.

Recently, volunteers organized a rave in a Kyiv subway station to raise funds to buy a drone. Drone schools have sprouted up across the country, including some specifically for women.

One trainer, Serhii Ristenko, is a photographer who used drone technology to shoot scenes for the hit HBO miniseries �Chernobyl.� When he and his family spent more than a month under Russian occupation in northern Ukraine at the start of the war, he buried his drone in the backyard.

Now Ristenko trains soldiers to fly the R-18 octocopter, made by Ukraine�s Aerorozvidka organization. The drone, equipped with a thermal imager, can fly about six miles when loaded with explosives.

�One of my students was a captain that was more than 50 years old and really wanted to learn to fly,� Restenko said. �I had a feeling he only got a smartphone for the first time in his life the week before we met. He�d call me 50 times a day with questions. But he really wanted to learn, and he actually did it.�

Shortly after the start of the invasion, Syrsky, the colonel general then leading the defense of Kyiv, turned to one of his deputies and suggested making something �artistic� about the Bayraktar to lift public morale. It was inspiring, he said, to watch new technology take out traditional military hardware such as tanks.

The task eventually filtered down to a soldier, Taras Borovok, who quickly wrote the catchy �Bayraktar� tune that became a hit on Ukrainian radio. Among the lyrics: �The Kremlin freak is conducting propaganda; the people swallow the words. Now their czar knows a new word: Bayraktar.�

# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 19:20

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

There's also this, but I think it may just be an ARG for an as-yet unannounced sequel to Event Horizon.

# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 20:17

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Orthanc6 posted:

Yeah the US spent 2 decades in counter-insurgency wars that didn't need anything like the amount of ammo getting tossed in Ukraine. It's honestly surprising that the US military was planning to deal with Taiwan without these boosts to ammo production. They owe Ukraine not just for the business, but showing them just how far off their plans were for peer conflict well ahead of time. And not just for ammo, now we know we have to stock transformers and other infrastructure, and bring a bunch of manufacturing back in-country so they don't rely on a potential adversary.

Slight tangent from that; I'm not surprised at the Russian links to the thwarted coup in Germany. One might hope this would tip Germany to stop waffling with Russian appeasement. But people keep voting GOP in droves after their failed coup so *shrug*

It really goes to show how for all the talk about China being the West's biggest future geopolitical rival, on an institutional level NATO militaries were still up until this year operating on the assumption that a peer or near-peer war would never happen again and it'd all be GWOT-type counter-insurgency operations for the rest of time. Really proves that adage about generals always being prepared to fight the previous war.

# ¿ Dec 7, 2022 22:48

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

This looks like it'll be an interesting watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJrWFn5lwU8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq_Dkqbx2ik

# ¿ Dec 9, 2022 19:37

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1603216293959712769

# ¿ Dec 15, 2022 03:53

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Willo567 posted:

Is there any significance from the Tu-95 being launched from Engels?

Absolutely none, Russia has been using strategic bombers to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine since the beginning and it doesn't matter which base in particular they take off from. You're letting some random tweet from a nobody get you worked up again.

# ¿ Dec 16, 2022 17:16

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Willo567 posted:

Why does every opinion about Ukraine I read from a realist make it sound as though they just want to abandon Ukraine to be conquered by Russia?

https://twitter.com/JustinTLogan/status/1604122214420418567

Because you keep seeking out random idiots on twitter and getting worked up by their hot takes!

# ¿ Dec 17, 2022 19:32

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Chalks posted:

This is a guy who knows exactly what his role is in this conflict and does it extremely well

Least surprising Time person of the year probably in my lifetime, that's for sure.

# ¿ Dec 20, 2022 17:13

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Here's the full story from Punchbowl:

quote:

This Punchbowl News Special Edition went to our Premium community first. Subscribe to Punchbowl News Premium to get the breaking news you need before everyone else.

Breaking news: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to visit the Capitol Wednesday, nine sources familiar with the visit told us.

The trip could still be called off for security concerns. The planning has been tightly held and the visit hasn�t been fully confirmed at this time.

If Zelensky makes the journey, it will mark his first trip to Washington since the brutal Russian invasion began Feb. 24 � exactly 300 days ago. It would also be Zelensky�s first time leaving Ukraine since Russia�s�renewed�aggression began.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged lawmakers in a letter Tuesday to come to Washington for �a very special focus on Democracy Wednesday night.� Zelensky could address a joint session of Congress in the House chamber Wednesday night, multiple sources told us.

The historic trip also comes as Congress is on the brink of approving another $45 billion in economic and military aid to Kyiv in the year-end omnibus funding bill. U.S. spending on the conflict will soar to more than $100 billion once this emergency aid is passed.

Zelensky is expected to meet with congressional leadership and national-security committee chiefs from both parties, according to two people familiar with the visit.

Zelensky�s potential visit marks a significant moment in Washington. Some Republicans are wary of continuing to back Ukraine�s resistance, both through military aid as well as the biting sanctions regime imposed on Russia.

House Republicans are expected to vote en masse against the omnibus bill, which contains the Ukraine aid. It will be interesting to see whether the Zelensky visit sways the GOP skeptics, who have grown their ranks in recent weeks as former President Donald Trump and other influential conservatives rail against new money for Ukraine.

Earlier today, Zelensky was in Bakhmut, a city in Ukraine�s east that came under heavy Russian artillery attacks.

� Jake Sherman, Heather Caygle, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

# ¿ Dec 20, 2022 23:33

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

The US is passing a budget omnibus bill tonight:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1605341612367716352

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1605341140240240645

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 00:38

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Here's some stuff I've come across this morning.

Excerpt from Punchbowl's morning newsletter:

quote:

Happy Wednesday morning.

It�s going to be a huge day on Capitol Hill.

→ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address a joint session of Congress this evening. It�s Zelensky�s first known trip outside of Ukraine since February, when Russia launched the brutal invasion of its smaller neighbor. Zelensky will meet earlier in the day with President Joe Biden and top Cabinet and national security officials. Biden and Zelensky will hold a press conference as well.

→ Senate leaders are still trying to reach a time agreement to move the $1.66 trillion omnibus spending bill in the next day or two. The deal hasn�t come together yet, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are hoping it can today.

A massive winter storm is bearing down on the Midwest and East Coast, and senators want to get home for the holidays. The omnibus package contains $45 billion in economic and military aid for Ukraine and NATO allies, so Zelensky�s visit comes at a critical time for House Republicans, who are being urged by their leadership to oppose the legislation.

→ And the Jan. 6 select committee is scheduled to release its final report on the deadly attack on the Capitol at some point today.

Ukraine: We scooped Tuesday afternoon that Zelensky was headed to Washington. Biden and Zelensky discussed the possibility of a Washington visit during a Dec. 11 call, and the invitation was formally extended by the White House on Dec. 14, according to a senior administration official. Zelensky accepted several days later. White House officials and Speaker Nancy Pelosi�s office began putting the details together over the weekend, with security of paramount importance, of course.

�Extensive planning� for this event goes back weeks, according to a Pelosi aide. The idea was first raised during a bilateral meeting in October between Pelosi and Speaker of the Ukrainian Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk in Zagreb. Pelosi had attended the First Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform in Croatia, at the invitation of Zelensky and Stefanchuk.

In a Tuesday letter from congressional leadership formally inviting Zelensky to speak, Pelosi said, �America and the world are in awe of the heroism of the Ukrainian people. In the face of Putin�s horrific atrocities, Ukrainian freedom fighters have inspired the world with an iron will and an unbreakable spirit � fighting back against Russia�s brutal, unjustified invasion.�

The address to a joint session is a fitting coda both for this Congress and Pelosi, who will step down from the House Democratic leadership at the end of this session. Pelosi visited Ukraine and helped shepherd much of the U.S. aid for that embattled country through Congress.

Zelensky�s visit to the Capitol is in many ways a natural progression for the Ukrainian leader, whose nation has benefited greatly from U.S. assistance that has only been possible because of bipartisan cooperation in Congress. Later today, for example, Biden is slated to announce the transfer of a Patriot missile battery and precision bombs as part of a fresh $1.8 billion infusion to the Ukrainian military.

Zelensky�s address � tentatively scheduled for 7:30 p.m. � is one of the most meaningful in years. He�s not the first world leader to address lawmakers while their country is engulfed in war. British Prime Minister Winston Churchill did so in the midst of World War II, while Iraqi and Afghan leaders also made similar speeches in recent years.

Yet Zelensky has become a global symbol of Ukrainian courage and determination in the face of overwhelming odds. His country has withstood 300 days of attacks from Russian forces and remains unconquered.

War fatigue is real here in D.C., however, especially among House Republicans. GOP lawmakers from the top down to the rank-and-file have openly questioned the continued flow of billions of dollars in military and economic aid to Ukraine.

Zelensky�s visit will be a huge boost for senior Republicans like McConnell and retiring Sen. Rob Portman (Ohio), who have actively sought to tamp down the �isolationist� streak in their party. In many ways, that�s Zelensky�s goal � to rally support for the Western coalition against Russia at a time when it�s seeing some cracks both at home and abroad.

This push will not, however, dissuade conservatives who see U.S. aid to Ukraine as a case of misplaced priorities. When Zelensky addresses Congress tonight, we�ll be looking to see who doesn�t show up.

One more note: The Senate will vote today on the nomination of Lynne Tracy to be U.S. ambassador to Russia. Tracy � who would be the first woman to hold this high-profile post � previously served as deputy chief of mission in Moscow. A career Foreign Service officer, Tracy is currently U.S. ambassador to Armenia. She would replace John Sullivan, who recently stepped down.

� Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

~~https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1605257387849424905~~
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1605237743885459456

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1605587464252403713

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1605588031204753408

What kind of armored vehicle is that?

e: switched accounts for the speech video

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Dec 21, 2022

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 16:50

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Last one, with the brief clip of it repositioning.

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 17:23

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1605621711478497280

Ynglaur posted:

It's a T-72 variant of some kind with ERA blocks and anti-RPG cages on the rear side panels.

Thanks!

cr0y posted:

This made me laugh a lot more than it should have.

:: Hundreds of pages of specific discussion about very niche variations of all matter of military vehicles and equipment ::

"Whats this one?"
"Tank"

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 18:52

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1605630777856770048

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 19:31

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1605640621217222679

https://twitter.com/Jordanfabian/status/1605640739777613825

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Dec 21, 2022

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 20:06

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1605646202078433297

(Blinken is Secretary of State and Sullivan is National Security Advisor)

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 20:32

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

BBC posted:

The discussion between the two presidents continues.

Zelensky says it's a "great honour" to be in the US. The Ukrainian leader then refers to his visit to the frontline city of Bakhmut yesterday.

He says a captain there asked him to pass his military medal on to Joe Biden, as he's a "very brave president".

Biden thanks Zelensky and says he wants to contact the captain to send a gift in return.

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 21:17

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1605686804971245568

e:
https://twitter.com/margbrennan/status/1605689477355245569

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Dec 21, 2022

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 23:11

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1605692273617866752

# ¿ Dec 21, 2022 23:33

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

BBC posted:

We reported earlier on the military award that Zelensky gave to Biden during their meeting - we've got more details on that now.

It is a Ukrainian military medal known as the Cross for Military Merit. This particular one was awarded earlier this year to a Ukrainian officer for outstanding achievements on the battlefield.

That officer met Zelensky in Bakhmut earlier this week and asked him to give his medal to Biden as a token of his profound gratitude. The officer also wrote Biden a letter expressing his appreciation for his support.

Biden had a gift for Zelensky during the meeting as well: two command coins. One is for the Ukrainian hero that wanted the President to have his medal and one is for President Zelensky.

Yeah it's choreographed propaganda, still made me smile.

# ¿ Dec 22, 2022 00:10

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

On to Capitol Hill:

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1605703967115079680

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1605704873625804800

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 00:23 on Dec 22, 2022

# ¿ Dec 22, 2022 00:20

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Baronjutter posted:

More of a personal note, but we got the family out of Russia. It was some doing and not everything done was legal, but they're out of Russia. He's 59 so technically still of draft age and people absolutely do get shook down trying to leave russia at that age and forced to pay big bribes or just denied exit so we were a bit worried. We told them not to move to Russia, we begged them, but they didn't listen. Then again they owned a house just outside of Bucha so maybe this horrible move actually saved their lives. What a hosed world we're living in.

I'm glad they're safe.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1605705768036081665

This is what they're looking at, it's super neat.

# ¿ Dec 22, 2022 00:27

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Zelensky's address is about to get started.

# ¿ Dec 22, 2022 01:25

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

It's a good speech.

# ¿ Dec 22, 2022 02:03

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1605731770518978561

# ¿ Dec 22, 2022 02:11

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Yeah for such a choreographed event it got kind of awkward there at the end. Just a reminder that all of these larger-than-life figures are human, too, and sometimes need to figure out how to get off the stage on the fly.

# ¿ Dec 22, 2022 02:43

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

mlmp08 posted:

-The Ukrainian Patriot battery will not be linked into any NATO systems or communications. It is a battery for Ukraine to operate, on their own.

And if you believe that, I've got a bridge from Russia to illegally occupied Crimea to sell you.

# ¿ Dec 22, 2022 19:54

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

This whole thread is worth a read -- Tim Mak is a real pro follow -- but I found this really interesting:

https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1607017796403085312

# ¿ Dec 25, 2022 15:43

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

The various articles about this do make the point that a lot of people are deliberately celebrating Christmas today at Russia.

# ¿ Dec 25, 2022 21:18

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Washington Post has another long article, this time about the two counter-offensives: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/

Some highlights, chosen at random because I found them interesting:

quote:

This reconstruction of the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives is based on interviews with more than 35 people, including Ukrainian commanders, officials in Kyiv and combat troops, as well as senior U.S. and European military and political officials.

What emerges is a story of how deepening cooperation with NATO powers, especially the United States, enabled Ukrainian forces � backed with weapons, intelligence and advice � to seize the initiative on the battlefield, expose Putin�s annexation claims as a fantasy, and build faith at home and abroad that Russia could be defeated.

�Our relationship with all of our partners changed immediately,� said Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, who commanded the Kharkiv offensive. �That is, they saw that we could achieve victory � and the help they were providing was being used with effect.�

quote:

In the last days of August, Syrsky met in a large operations room in Ukraine�s east with his top aides and key brigade commanders. Before them was a 520-square-foot 3D-printed terrain map of the part of the Kharkiv region occupied by Russia.

Each commander walked the path of his unit�s planned assault amid the replica cities, hills and rivers, acting out its mission and discussing coordination, contingencies and worst-case scenarios. Officers used laser pointers to spotlight trouble spots.

�It was painstaking work,� Syrsky said.

quote:

U.S. intelligence helped ration the ammunition through accurate targeting. After many months, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, the two partners had worked out a real-time regimen: The Ukrainians would outline the types of high-value targets they were looking for in an area, and the United States would use its vast geospatial intelligence apparatus to respond with precise locations.

The Americans, however, were not deeply involved in planning the Kharkiv offensive and learned about it relatively late, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials.

quote:

On Sept. 6, just past 3:30 a.m., Oleh�s company of about 100 soldiers, part of the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade, began to advance in small columns of three infantry fighting vehicles each. For hours before they started to move, Ukrainian artillerymen had been pounding Russian positions with U.S.-made M270 multiple launch rocket systems.

Command posts. Ammunition depots. Fuel storage facilities. The firing was relentless. Across the front, Ukrainian military officials later said, Russian soldiers or their separatist proxies struggled to receive orders or coordinate with nearby forces as the rockets rained down. Some troops began to retreat.

�We broke through the front line, and the enemy started panicking,� Oleh said, speaking on the condition he be referred to by his first name because his relatives live in Russian-occupied territory. �They were panicking because we attacked all front-line positions at once � the entire front line itself was enormous � and everywhere there was a breakthrough.�

By the end of that first day, Oleh�s company had advanced about 11 miles with little resistance, reaching the edge of Volokhiv Yar, a picturesque town in a ravine. Capturing this key junction would allow Ukrainian forces to block two major highways heading into Izyum and Balakliya.

quote:

When Oleh�s company entered central Izyum, having made it there without any losses, the troops were dumbfounded at what lay before them: Tanks in working order, ready to be driven. Abandoned artillery pieces, ready to be fired. Fuel tankers �filled up to the eyeballs.� Tons of ammunition and light weapons.

The Russian troops had had everything they needed for a serious defense, Oleh thought, except the will to fight and, apparently, enough men. Even the elite Russian units left in the area bolted, realizing Moscow had no backup cavalry to send.

quote:

Responsibility for that difficult stretch of front, northwest of Kherson, fell to Col. Vadym Sukharevsky, commander of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade.

His men had charged through Russia�s front lines, overcoming losses, and were pushing against ferocious resistance to get close enough to strike the river crossings into Kherson with artillery. That fire would also make Russian resupply trips by pontoon barges nearly impossible. His forces were almost there. �It was literally a battle for every meter,� Sukharevsky said.

Up against elite Russian air-assault units, Sukharevsky�s less experienced troops were forced to engage in what he called battlefield �folk art.�

They modified the batteries in off-the-shelf DJI Mavic drones so the copters could fly four times farther, up to 13 miles. They obtained an additive used to give natural gas its scent and launched the foul odor into enemy trenches. They accepted drones from cigarette smugglers and transformed them into self-detonating explosives.

�Our army is used to fighting with improvised means,� Sukharevsky said.

One of his platoon commanders, Chief Sgt. Yevhen Ignatenko, the owner of a large Kherson grain-shipping business and a regional politician, explained how best to destroy his own barges, which Russia had requisitioned to ferry forces and supplies across the Dnieper.

Ignatenko drew on a lifetime of local knowledge � back roads, canals, pumping stations � to figure out how to advance through the difficult terrain. He also gathered information about the Russians� activities from a network of sources behind enemy lines.

quote:

Sukharevsky said he credits Ukraine�s victory partly to the artillery systems, guided munitions and long-range rocket launchers sent by the West, which eventually wore down a Russian force already low on ammunition and struggling with supply lines.

The pressure from Ukrainian troops forced the retreat, but they didn�t manage to run down or destroy the fleeing Russians. Mines, in some cases laid a meter apart and three rows deep or tucked into thin strips on the roads, prevented the Ukrainians from giving chase.

�They didn�t hold back,� Sukharevsky said. �They mined with everything, even new means we had never heard of.�

quote:

Ignatenko, the regional politician and Kherson shipping magnate serving in the 59th Brigade, sent a drone up over the river and found one of his barges half-submerged near the Antonovsky Bridge, but others were missing.

�We�ll find them,� Ignatenko said. �And if we don�t find them, we�ll build new ones. It�s okay. At least we will be a free country.�

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Dec 29, 2022

# ¿ Dec 29, 2022 18:53

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

PederP posted:

Head of the Danish Military Intelligence department of 'Russia Analysis' (difficult to translate the Danish wording)

Informally this position would usually be referred to in English as the head of the "Russia desk."

# ¿ Dec 30, 2022 16:57

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1611448756142239746

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1611448757186621441

# ¿ Jan 6, 2023 20:54

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

It's also possible that maybe, just maybe, the people who are handling supply and procurement for Ukraine know what they're doing more than us randos here ITT?

# ¿ Jan 6, 2023 22:10

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 12, 2024 06:57

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Billboards in Ukraine, apparently the translation is "World of Courageous People" and then "Thank you for your support."

Reminds me of those WW2 "this man is your friend, he fights for freedom" posters.

# ¿ Jan 7, 2023 23:21

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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