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HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Rigel posted:

Its also interesting to me that this fact does not seem to be widely known, at least not where I'm at. Ukraine recently came up in conversation, and the people I was with were very surprised to hear that the Russian army was doing very badly and getting pushed back. The general thought amongst people not following closely seems to be "well I hear Ukraine is doing OK so far, but they aren't going to win, and that is just too bad".

This has been my experience as well. I'm the most plugged-in person I know about this war (American, my family is Polish and Ukrainian), and probably the least pessimistic about Ukraine's chances.

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HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird
I'm sure the only part they're not faking is arresting a random guy and ruining his life

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird
As loathe as I am to toe this line, I think there's a valid gray zone re: the combatant status of civilian contractors working on dual-use infrastructure in occupied territory at the behest of the occupying belligerent during a war. They're one step away from the unlucky truck drivers that were running logistics for the Russian military earlier in the war, and if these contractors were an engineering battalion doing the exact same work, we wouldn't be having this conversation. I'm not going to root for the deaths of these contractors, but I'm also not going to file their deaths alongside Ukrainian citizens that were killed in a missile strike on their apartment building, or the unlucky souls who went for a pre-dawn run near the oil storage facilities in Belgorod.

This bridge is not incidental to Russia's prosecution of this war. It was specifically built to support and exploit the Russian conquest of Crimea, and supporting the invasion of Kherson was probably in the cards as well when it came up. Given its vital role in keeping the southern front supplied, I don't blame Ukraine in the slightest for destroying it, and I wouldn't blame them for repeatedly stomping down attempts to repair it regardless of who Russia sends to make that happen.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

WarpedLichen posted:

Yeah but reading into it, the donated ex-soviet gear from the surrounding countries have all been retrofitted to probably different internal standards. So you got T-72s with different sensor packages, possibly different powerpacks, different electronics.

If your depot has to service X different flavors the same tank, I have no idea how it doesn't get confusing as hell.

I can't imagine these high-performance tanks being useful if they use unfamiliar tech with all kinds of custom mods. All that high-performance tech and retrofitting doesn't seem useful if you don't have a tank crew that's trained to really take advantage of it or a repair crew that can easily maintain it. One engine breakdown, and that tank is as dead in the water as a Russian vehicle fresh out of deep storage.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

It's the fact that they let their soldiers know that they don't give the slightest poo poo whether they live or die. Just straight up telling their soldiers that they're just meat for the grinder as they get stuffed into it.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird
Amazing how everybody treats the Colossal, Unfeeling Civilian Murder & Rape Machine like an inhuman monster and keeps it at bay at any cost

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

cinci zoo sniper posted:


Lastly, US is the largest owner of military equipment and supplies compatible with Soviet gear, of the countries supporting it. Or was anyway, since they’ve probably cleared most, if not all of it, for good.

This part I'm curious about. I figured all of the soviet gear the US was handing over was actually being given by former soviet allies and backfilled with NATO gear. Does the US just have warehouses of T72s in the desert?

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Kraftwerk posted:

How does the Marder compare to the Bradley?

I’m just wondering given the US’s massive logistics advantage why we aren’t streamlining Ukrainian vehicles around US standards.

Everything in the US military runs on JP9. It allows for one fuel type across all things whether it’s military jets, tanks, or AFVs.

If there’s 2000 Bradley’s in a desert somewhere why are we bothering with marders and gazelles or whatever.

Probably because the US logistics chain is built around having a limited spread of vehicles to maintain. Ukraine right now is probably the all-time record holder for the spread of vehicles they have to maintain.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird
lol fatherboxx issuing probes and bans that he'll rescind, if you buy avs and start accounts that he can sell on the side

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Morrow posted:

Prigozhin is spiraling. His bid to oust Shoigu has failed and he hasn't taken Bakhmut. Wagner is losing a lot of its privileges and once they're no longer a threat he'll commit suicide with two bullets to the back of the head.

Surprise surprise. And it's not like he's a superior general/administrator that got outmaneuvered, either. He hasn't proven he's any more capable. The RuAF pushed hard for 4 months to take Severodonetsk, and Prigozhin's failure to take Bakhmut has been going on for at least that long.

After each of them was given the reins, there were a lot of news stories about how Prigozhin and Surovikin are these cunning figures playing 4D chess, but the only trick up their sleeves was moving the brutality slider from 10 to 11 (Surovikin wasting precision munitions on civilian infrastructure, Prigozhin shoveling mobiks onto the front like coal into a furnace).

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Agronox posted:

Last spring the Guardian figured the Russian foreign reserves in allied custody at around 600 billion USD.

I'm surprised it's not being used to buy weapons for Ukraine. If we're gonna Appropriate it, might as well go all-in

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Charlz Guybon posted:

This is basically nonsense. The Russians have lost roughly 2k of their initial 3k tanks.

Now they have been able to activate some of the tanks they had in mothballs, but not at anywhere near the pace necessary to keep up with losses and there is a limit to how many tanks they can reactivate. Most of them have been rusting in a field for decades or already been stripped for parts.

By the end of the year, if not earlier, the Russians will be incapable of manuver warfare on any meaningful scale.

People have been making this prediction again and again over the course of the entire war. Russia's lack of capability to conduct maneuver warfare is not a question of hardware, but poorly-trained soldiers, lousy officers, aversion to risk, and an inability to conduct combined arms warfare in general. They will always have more hardware to pull out of storage; the trend is just that each successive pull from the boneyard will be less reliable and take more parts/effort to restore than the last.

It's like with the mobilizations. They have millions of civilians they can turn into soldiers; they'll never run out. Just that every wave of mobilization will be less fit, motivated, trained & equipped than the last.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird
I have my doubts about this video, if only because the thumbnail marks it as dogshit-grade clickbait. This war has been chock-full of self-proclaimed experts popping up out of nowhere that start with one or two insightful points and then stretch those points to a wildly overblown conclusion, like trent telenko and how bad tires mean a complete logistical collapse for russia in 5 months, or kamil galeev and how Russian supply chain issues mean this war will cause the russian rail system to collapse and the country to fragment into warlord fiefdoms.

The topic these guys have educated me most on is their particular flavor of Russia-watcher hustlegrind

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HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Ynglaur posted:


I do wonder how much of this can be solved by throwing money at it. Like, if NATO countries said "here is 100 billion Euros", could Europe produce 100,000 shells/month in 3 months? Do any goons know enough about industrial scaling to weigh in?

Speaking from my experience with consumer manufacturing, this would not be possible. Building/retrofitting facilities, expanding production lines, getting equipment, procurement of raw materials and components, trial runs, QA/QC process work, training... None of these are quick even if you're just expanding existing production lines, and some of these have to be done in sequence

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