War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 12, 2022 05:15

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# ¿ May 13, 2024 16:59

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Germany rejects Putin�s offer to restart gas supply through Nord Stream 2

quote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday proposed to resume the supply of gas to Europe using the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a suggestion that was quickly turned down by German officials.

During a speech at an energy forum in Moscow, Putin said, �The ball is in the E.U.�s court. If they want to, then the taps can be turned on and that�s it,� suggesting the supply of gas could be resumed through the part of the pipeline that has not been damaged in a recent explosion.

A spokeswoman for the German government flatly ruled out the idea. Spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann told reporters that �independently of the possible sabotage of the two pipelines, we have seen that Russia is no longer a reliable energy supplier, and that even before the damage to Nord Stream 1 there was no longer any gas flowing,� the Associated Press reported.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which connects Russia and Germany and runs under the Baltic Sea, became a flash point in the lead-up to Russia�s invasion of Ukraine in late February. The pipeline had been finished in September 2021 but it was awaiting certification. Germany put the project on hold on Feb. 22, following Russia�s formal recognition of the independence of two breakaway regions in Ukraine.

A series of explosions in late September damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. European officials believe the explosions were deliberate, and some suggested Russia was behind them. Putin has accused the United States and its allies of sabotaging the pipelines, but has provided no evidence.

At the energy forum, Putin also said he is considering building more natural gas pipelines to Turkey.

�We could move the lost volumes from the Nord Streams along the bottom of the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea region and thus make the main routes for the supply of our fuel, our natural gas to Europe through Turkey, creating the largest gas hub for Europe in Turkey,� he said, according to Reuters.

# ¿ Oct 12, 2022 20:18

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 05:17

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I�m not sure who hasn�t been adamant that sanctions alone won�t end the war.

I�m afraid this is the least important of the 3 European councils.

The Economist tends to specialize in smug, smart-sounding articles that don't actually tell you very much.

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 15:40

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

FishBulbia posted:

That really sucks. If its a reverse Mariupol the city will be destroyed.

I've yet to see Ukraine operate that way.

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 21:06

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Burns posted:

Question: does the dniepr freeze over in the south?

The average high temperature in Kherson in January is 34�F, so I would expect it would. The flowing water will work against it, so it might be patchy or thin in places. Probably solid enough to walk on, but I doubt cars or trucks would make it.

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 21:13

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

steinrokkan posted:

They have yet to fight against dug in troops in a major city. Hopefully they won't have to and the Russians will run away as they have so far

Actually, they have - Izium and Lyman, for example. Their technique is to surround the city and cut off resupply, so as to force the Russians to retreat or surrender. The whole Kharkiv offensive was done that way. They avoided any direct confrontations whenever possible.

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 21:15

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Saladman posted:

Ukraine is really not that cold, especially not Kherson. Kharkiv is similar weather to Chicago and Kherson is about the same as Pittsburgh. It�s chilly but not even remotely arctic. Rivers also are pretty challenging to freeze over, especially deep ones and/or fast moving ones. The January 24h average -1 in Kherson. The 24h avg in Stalingrad is -6; those 5 degrees extra make a huge difference.

Might there be a cold snap that makes it possible to walk across? Reasonably likely, but it�s not going to be crossed in heavy trucks, no unless we get a freak once in a century coldsnap, which global warming is making ever so less likely.

E: Kherson also gets an average 1.3 inches / 3cm a year of snow - less than Nashville. Like total, for all winter. North Americans tend to have super wrong impressions of how snowy and cold Europe is.

http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CD%5CN%5CDniproRiver.htm

quote:

In winter the Dnipro freezes over, usually after a 20-day spell of subzero temperature. The average freezing and thawing dates for Kyiv are 17 December and 24 March; for Cherkasy, 23 December and 22 March; for Zaporizhia, 5 January and 9 March; for Kherson, 3 January and 3 March. The ice regime is not stable: sometimes the Dnipro freezes for short intervals, and sometimes it does not freeze at all. Ice jams and floods resulting from them are rare because the freezing moves southward and the thawing northward.

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 21:41

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Saladman posted:

I�m not sure if you posted that to agree or to disagree with me, but a river freezing over does not mean what I think you think it means. There�s ice on the riverbanks and a thin veneer of ice, and there�s actually frozen solid.

That's exactly what I said. It may be patchy, and perhaps possible to walk on. It depends on the severity of the winter and is not terribly predictable.

Can we leave this alone now?

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 21:47

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

smug n stuff posted:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1580438311742894080

It's really weird to me that The Times, an ostensibly high-profile newspaper, would publish a full-on story based on nothing but the claims of the UA Defense Ministry. This isn't the first time this newspaper has done this, iirc.

I don't really understand what you're complaining about. It accurately reports that Ukrainian officials claim it happened.

It's also not a full-on story, just four short paragraphs.

# ¿ Oct 14, 2022 00:38

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 14, 2022 05:21

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Koos Group posted:

No offense taken. To make my perspective clear, I believe that Crimea should be part of Russia on the basis of self-determination. I also believe the annexation was a magnificent move on Russia's part due to it being bloodless, which is often not the case in conflicts resulting from badly drawn borders (cf. Kurdistan or the Yugoslav republics). However, this was not due to any noble intentions of Russia, as has been made abundantly clear by the conflict this thread is about. They engaged in a land grab with no regard for the democratic will of the regions involved, and caused inconceivable human suffering in the process. It retroactively showed that their actions in Crimea were only part of raw imperial ambition, and has more than undone any good they accomplished.

The hypothetical of how else Russia might have gained self-determination for Ukrainian territories that needed it (of which I'm not convinced there were any other than Crimea) without going against Ukraine's will and violating international law is interesting to me because of its implications about national sovereignty, international bargaining and regional politics, but ultimately has no bearing on whether the current conflict is wrong or could have been avoided.

Self-determination is not a valid reason. That is what the Confederate States tried in 1861. Lincoln correctly saw that it could not be allowed to stand, or states would vote themselves in or out of the union whenever it was convenient, and thus the nation as a whole would be destroyed. Similarly, the breakaway Ukrainian areas need the agreement of the Ukrainian government before they can be recognized as independent.

Secession has to be a mutual agreement. Crimea should be Ukrainian because by international law, that is the nation it belongs to.

# ¿ Oct 14, 2022 20:33

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Koos Group posted:

You're correct that with how international law is currently interpreted, Ukraine would be justified in retaking Crimea. But self-determination would absolutely have something to do with it because Crimea's would be violated, and self-determination is also a guiding principle in international law as well as, more importantly, an arguable human right or consequence of human rights.

True as well, but what I'm saying is that Ukraine's claim to it is illegitimate also. So it comes down to which principle one prioritizes more highly.

At this point, "self-determination" in Crimea is meaningless because of the ethnic cleansing that Russia has been doing. People who wanted to stay with Ukraine have been removed, while Russian sympathizers have been moved in.

Arguing in favor of Crimean self-determination now just makes you another Russian propagandist. It is the only argument in Russia's favor, and it has been deliberately tainted by Russian actions.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Oct 15, 2022 01:05

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 16, 2022 05:23

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Chalks posted:

The reason these weapons are held back isn't out of some sense of parity. It's in order to prevent Russia from taking certain escalatory actions that the west really wants to prevent and its not just the "we're worried that Russia will escalate if we do X" side of things that's stated as the official reason, but also because this poo poo cuts both ways. Russia knows that the west is holding back ATACMS, aircraft, tanks etc and they know Ukrainian forces aren't going to cross the border into Russia proper at the behest of the west, but they know all that stuff is theoretically possible and being held over them to prevent them from doing anything insane. Not arguing that more shouldn't be being done, but there are clear reasons to boil the frog.

Also, lets not overstate the significance of this. Russia has always had long range strike capabilities. Sure, now after they've performed over 2000 strikes against Ukraine they're running low, but lets not pretend that Russia getting these will change things dramatically.

The main issue with ATACMs, as I understand it, is that they're out of production and its successor isn't going to be available until 2024.

The US is keeping what remains for its own needs and just doesn't have a lot to supply to Ukraine.

# ¿ Oct 16, 2022 18:23

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 17, 2022 05:23

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 18, 2022 05:23

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

cinci zoo sniper posted:

With a polite tinfoil warning, there�s may be a faint smell of an anticipated �gesture of goodwill� in Kherson area, on the right bank of Dnipro.

1) exhibit A

https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1582428383438217217

The guy is the recently appointed official boss general for the war, and he�s droning on about �NATO pushing Kyiv to prepare for carpet bombing of Kherson area with rockets, including Kakhovka dam and the city of Kherson, inflicting massive infrastructure damage and civilian casualties�.

2) exhibit B

https://twitter.com/sotnikov_d/status/1582425930189787136

Some Russian MPs may have released vague rumours about the upper house of the parliament possibly discussing introduction of martial law as early as tomorrow.

Both of those things could not mean anything practical in the end, but they combine well. Especially the general�s speech, the delivery of it is not something that�s supposed to end with �and that�s why we�re launching a massive counteroffensive�, though I�m admittedly too lazy to track down the full TV piece in the instant.

Further supporting evidence:

https://t-me.translate.goog/suspilnekherson?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

quote:

The Russian military transported the collaborators with their relatives and their families to Henichesk and Crimea and plan to take out the museum exhibits.

https://t-me.translate.goog/suspilnekherson?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

quote:

Public Kherson
The military of the Russian Federation is taking household appliances, products, hygiene products, and personal underwear from the residents of the Kherson region. Their actions testify to the preparation for another "gesture of goodwill" � the "Yellow Ribbon" Civil Resistance Movement.

# ¿ Oct 18, 2022 21:30

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Young Freud posted:

Does this mean Russia is letting their imported administrators and collaborators swing in the wind while the military bails out of Kherson?

No, it's been reported numerous times that they're being evacuated to Crimea.

# ¿ Oct 18, 2022 21:57

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Phlegmish posted:

I guess you guys are right, though I was expecting the usual 'Ukrainian nazis have broken through our lines and captured villages X, Y and Z' first. What we're hearing from the Russians now just makes it seem like they're retreating before the Ukrainians have even started attacking.

It may also be that the fighting is largely a stalemate, but the Russians are counting their bullets and shells and fuel and realizing that they're about done. They're getting some supplies across the river, but nowhere near enough to sustain combat - so getting out while they can is the call.

# ¿ Oct 18, 2022 22:25

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 19, 2022 05:26

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

https://t-me.translate.goog/suspilnekherson?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

quote:

"The Russians are preparing to fire at Kherson, they are digging fortifications in the Chaplynka area for barrel artillery," Kim, the head of the Mykolayiv OVA, commented on the evacuation notices received by the residents of Kherson.

https://t-me.translate.goog/suspilnekherson?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

quote:

"This is what the evacuation looks like. There are not very many people and I don't think they have an understanding of where and how far they are going," said First Deputy Chairman of the Kherson Regional Council Yuriy Sobolevskyi.

# ¿ Oct 19, 2022 14:23

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 20, 2022 05:28

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Ynglaur posted:

I had assumed the effects would last longer. What you describe makes me wonder what benefit at all would Russia gain from destroying the dam.

It kills two power plants - the nuclear plant and the hydro plant in the dam. Plus Ukraine loses all the water for irrigation.

Russia gains nothing. It causes pain to Ukrainians. That's the only point.

# ¿ Oct 21, 2022 04:43

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 21, 2022 05:31

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 22, 2022 05:31

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Oct 23, 2022 05:33

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

FishBulbia posted:

It's worth remembering that southern Ukraine doesn't ever get that cold. It's more comparable to Italy.

It certainly gets plenty cold in Kherson.

(source: https://weatherspark.com/y/97401/Average-Weather-in-Kherson-Ukraine-Year-Round)

quote:

Billings, Montana, United States (5,634 miles away); Continental, Ohio, United States (5,248 miles); and Northumberland, Pennsylvania, United States (5,003 miles) are the far-away foreign places with temperatures most similar to Kherson (view comparison).

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 17:35

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Bloody Pom posted:

I apologize if this is bordering on Clancychat or getting away from the topic at hand, but surely there must be a breaking point to this. If Erdogan keeps pushing back against the alliance's wishes in this manner, how likely would it be that they eventually just decide it's not worth the trouble and leave Turkey to the wolves? The only real reason I can find for keeping them around is their control of the Bosporus.

NATO is not going to ditch Turkey, for any reason. Not only is there no mechanism I'm aware of in the NATO charter for doing such a thing, Turkey has enormous strategic importance such that they will put up with almost anything from them. Turkey will still be a NATO member long after Erdogan is dead.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2022 04:58

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Alan Smithee posted:

So whose idea was it to give every individual NATO country veto power?

If Estonia gets invaded and half the members just say, "well, we didn't like them anyway," you don't have much of an alliance.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2022 05:27

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

RockWhisperer posted:

It does flow North to South like everybody else is saying. The reasoning for referring to areas as left or right bank is really a matter of convention. For any population living near a major river, it is common to use the river as a general reference for location, especially in a rural setting where there's few landmarks. I have referenced places as left or right bank myself when I lived near a major river for a number of years. I'm not 100% sure why, but the left and right bank are always based on when you are looking downstream. This is true in Europe and North America.

I'd like to guess it's because people historically travelled downstream more before rivers were commonly dammed.

Rivers also meander around and saying N/E/S/W bank changes which side you're referring to depending on where you are. L/R bank is invariant over the entire length of the river.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 19:23

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Outside Kherson, abandoned clothes, food and ammunition are signs of a hasty Russian withdrawal.

quote:

BLAHODATNE, Ukraine � In the villages west of Kherson, there were signs of a hasty Russian retreat and faltering efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance on Friday.

Ukrainian soldiers explored one abandoned Russian base, in a warehouse in the village of Blahodatne, poking through heaps of clothes, books and canned goods.

Russian military uniforms were crumpled in a heap on the floor of a sleeping area. The beds had been left rumpled. Clothes dried on a clothesline.

Nearby, a warehouse was packed with green wooden boxes of hundreds of rounds of abandoned Russian mortar ammunition. Some shells had been laid out on the warehouse floor, the detonators already screwed into the explosives, prepared to be fired quickly.

�They left in a hurry,� said Serhiy, a private who asked that only his first name be made public, according to Ukrainian military protocol. �They were preparing to shoot us with this ammunition, but they didn�t have time.�

Dmytro, another private, said, �They left without a fight.�

Through the day on Friday, Ukrainian military vehicles rolled past the village, moving eastward under a low, overcast sky along the main M14 highway, leading toward Kherson.

Remnants of the long battle for the city were seen on the road into villages reclaimed by Ukraine on Wednesday.

Along the highway, birch trees had been felled by artillery, telephone cables slumped onto the road and the metal guardrails were twisted and perforated with shrapnel. .

Occasional distant thuds from artillery were heard, possibly fired from Russian positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. But Ukrainian media officers said that fighting was still raging a few miles from the city of Kherson. It was not immediately possible to independently verify the claim.

To the west, in Blahodatne, a small cluster of brick houses surrounded by fields on the open steppe, residents said that the Russians had withdrawn quietly overnight Wednesday to Thursday.

�There was no fighting, they left peacefully,� Yevgenia Khaidayeva, 82, said of the Russian pullback from what had been a defensive line to the northwest of Kherson city, passing just outside Blahodatne.

On Friday, a man who residents said was a local schoolteacher drove a motorcycle festooned with two Ukrainian flags, which fluttered as he sped about the village roads, honking and cheering �Glory to Ukraine!�

Not everyone was in a buoyant mood. Vadim Slabodyanyuk, a school security guard, stood leaning on a bicycle and blankly watching the Ukrainian soldiers pass by in trucks.

His mother and his father had been killed in artillery shelling from the Ukrainian Army during fighting over the spring and summer, he said. �And I buried them both under shelling� in the local cemetery, he added. He said it was difficult to accept that his own country�s forces had fired into his village.

Locals described a sense of slumping morale in the Russians stationed in their village, going back months.

Maria Akimona, 73, a retired milkmaid, recalled that over the summer, a Russian soldier had told her that he had a 1-year-old son and that he had said, �I won�t see him taking his first steps.�

She added, �I asked him what he was doing here, and he said he didn�t understand.�

# ¿ Nov 12, 2022 00:58

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

mobby_6kl posted:

That can't possibly be it, can it? The moment we run out of soviet era junk, that's it, Putin gets to walk into Kyiv?

It's not feasible to train quickly, but nine month is a pretty long time, for example pilot training takes like 18 under normal conditions for example and could probably be shortened considerably. We've bought enough time to actually do a lot of the required training if it actually had been started. But so far I haven't seen anything to suggest that this actually happening.

I'm sure there are dozens of analysts with spreadsheets keeping track of what's available and how fast it's being used. Lots of countries want to get rid of their Soviet legacy hardware and this is a great opportunity for it.

They'll know when supplies are running out and they need to transition to something that's NATO standard.

# ¿ Nov 14, 2022 18:21

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

mobby_6kl posted:

Yeah I'm sure someone is keeping track, but by the time soviet stockpiles do run out, it would be too late to start training and setting up logistics. Which is why

The point of keeping track is knowing when they will run out, so that they can start training on other stuff at the appropriate time.

Assuming the people in charge of this stuff are incompetent and don't understand their jobs is sometimes right, but a bad way to bet.

# ¿ Nov 14, 2022 19:24

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

mobby_6kl posted:

Pilots were just an example of what I'd assume one of the more most training-intensive roles. Same would go for e.g. Patriot operators, ~~tankies~~ tankers? etc. Seems like that if there's any chance these skills would be needed, the right time to start would've been months ago.

The thing that prompted this discussion was an article about how Ukraine might need to start negotiating because they'll be running out of stuff. That seems like something that shouldn't be happening, because it gives Putin a clear path to "victory".

My take on the article was that it's standard WSJ clickbait. A lot of "maybe," "might," and "could" without any real substance.

# ¿ Nov 14, 2022 20:40

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Yeah, this feels like a slight-of-hand trick to draw attention away from elsewhere. The goal is probably to get Russia to bundle up a bunch of equipment and start shipping it west, so that it's not available when Ukraine attacks at Kam'yans'ke or someplace.

# ¿ Nov 14, 2022 22:08

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

FishBulbia posted:

I don't get why Russia would just stop even after losing anything unless there was a serious internal issue.

Most likely they'd stop when Ukrainian counterfire destroyed their guns.

# ¿ Nov 15, 2022 18:19

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Charliegrs posted:

So it could have been a S300 that Russia uses in the ground to ground role (which I believe are incredibly inaccurate as they weren't really designed for that) or a Ukrainian S300 that went off course trying to down a Russian missile. Which is not unheard of.

Ukraine will claim the former, Russia will claim the latter.

# ¿ Nov 15, 2022 20:33

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1592609073090138113

# ¿ Nov 15, 2022 21:14

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# ¿ May 13, 2024 16:59

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Kuleba is lobbying for F-15s and F-16s.

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1592615651344265216

# ¿ Nov 15, 2022 21:53

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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