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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

HallelujahLee posted:

it really is all just iraq again

For whom?

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mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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NAFO Proudboy

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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No evidence of a dirty bomb? poo poo, now the US is going to have to invade out of a sense of nostalgia.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Cold take: it’s gonna get cold and slow and then the narrative will be truly unbearable leading up to the spring offensives.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Hadlock posted:

Agree, if Ukraine doesn't get a toehold on Kherson before first snows this fall, it's going to be much harder to take the city after the Russians have had six months of winter to dig in

I don't know how cold it gets there, but I'd imagine it's pretty miserable come January

March of next year will be brutal

Even if Russia withdraws to the other bank and cedes Kherson city, likely gonna be a lot of sitting around staring at one another across obnoxious natural and manmade onstacles and firing artillery.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Majorian posted:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1588345283477266434

Oooh, love that confidence...from a government that isn't Ukraine's, and has some rather perverse incentives wrapped up in all of this!

Quite the turn from when Ukraine was posting rah rah Kherson hype updates and the US was like "Hey, sometimes, Ukraine surprises you, so I guess we'll see, but I don't know if I'd call this a 'counteroffensive' per se..., but the operations are deliberate and calculated"

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

Al-Saqr posted:

https://twitter.com/azgeopolitics/status/1588478706519277568?s=46&t=wntg1GJ2ZfslOFGtSg3zNg

absolutely stunning illustration of the sheer scale of the air bridge nato is doing to keep Ukraine in the fight.

Wow, stunning. Let's look at some flights into Rzeszow from today!

The AZgeopolitics account is counting on people ignorant of the fact that the majority of flights into and out of Rzeszow Jasionka Airport are commercial airliners like RyanAIR and LOT air and other commercial people and cargo movers land and take off from Rzeszow, Poland.



No one is supporting Ukraine with as many flights of supplies as depicted by the AZ account; that's one of Zelensky's frustrations!

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Raskolnikov38 posted:

you’re comparing apples to oranges lol. the tweet image is flights over the period of a month not a day or two

I know what a month is. AZgeololitics is assuming its readers are too ignorant to know Reszow hosts civil flights. That’s why their unsourced chart includes a month’s worth of civil aviation.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Al-Saqr posted:

why are you mad? shouldn’t you be happy Ukraine is getting a big air armada of weapons?

I’m just slightly surprised people can’t look at a map of civil air traffic to include flights from non-NATO countries and then figure out the account is trying to dupe them.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Raskolnikov38 posted:

is it civil air traffic though? given the tweet says NATO flights and is over a month why can’t the lines be military flights only

One of the clues that AZgeopolitics is bullshitting its readers is that this plot of “NATO flights” includes flights from non-NATO civil airports on the map.


And then even if AZGeopolitics didn’t include those flights, an honest broker would need yo normalize for flights to Reszow prior to conflict.

They’re providing an image with zero source evidence and with glaring errors on the map and assuming their readers either won’t understand or won’t care.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Zerg Mans posted:

is this the same team that figured out that Ukraine actually shot down MH17 lol

No. That was a different antisemitic conspiracy theorist.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

The most modernized versions of HAWKs were essentially contemporaneous with the late 80s S-300s Ukraine has.

But they originate from way back when, and most countries that still used them phased them out in the early 2000s.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost
Upgraded HAWKs are still fine, like what the ROK has, but depending on what version and how well kept, the oldest ones out there are really old. Iran still uses them and does their own engineered upgrades, which is kinda neat.

Missile go pew
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz8GHKqW80c&t=161s

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost
The US has said pretty bluntly that:

1. Those tanks sitting in a lot in the desert would cost a shitload to refit
2. The US has no desire to send a bunch of maintenance intensive Abrams to Ukraine and then have to foot the bill for repairing them and supplying parts, fuel, ammo, etc.

Abrams are expensive to run, and the US doesn't really want to foot that bill so far.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

HiroProtagonist posted:

its less a matter of "could" rather than "won't"

yes

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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CongoJack posted:

Even one video of a lucky hit or an abandoned vehicle getting destroyed would look really bad.

I don't know why anyone would think that. Several US Abrams were destroyed in Iraq, more damaged. Often friendly fire.

Tanks getting blown up in modern warfare, against ATGMs, is just expected.

The US just really doesn't want to deal with the headache of probably escalation of giving out Abrams, then having to maintain them and having to deal with the Ukrainians not knowing how or having the logistical support or spare parts to maintain them. And if they started breaking down, then Ukraine would probably start to say as much in the media and so on. Comparatively many more T-72 spare parts sitting around in Ukraine.

There are a number of capabilities that wouldn't likely be a money problem that the US just chooses no to give. Like fighter jets and ATACMS and Abrams and so on.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

Wow, US doesn’t do weapons inspections, monsters. Now they inspect weapons to combat proliferation and it’s escalation!

I guess the US will have to subcontract out weapons inspection to some respectable PMC or something.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

AnimeIsTrash posted:

who are you even arguing with

I was not being serious, so no one.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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HiroProtagonist posted:

Don't quote me

I'll try not to

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Calibanibal posted:

we need more witches to curse Putin.

Busy cursing Brady

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Breakfast All Day posted:

trying to make a map of what provinces were added to germany when but my computer keeps running out of ram

lmao

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Train post.

https://twitter.com/akamyshin/status/1588940542817488896?s=46&t=wRQHq9J9MH66pmNp8LJSGw

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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speng31b posted:

lol didn't the pope back down and say it was moral to arm and support Ukraine

Sorta.

He said it was moral to arm Ukraine if you did so from the motivation of defending sovereignty and that Russia is invading and killing civilians, and it is fine to defend yourself and help others defend themselves from attack.

He said it was immoral to arm Ukraine if you were doing so with the motivation to just to offload old weapons or to engage in war profiteering.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

sum posted:

I love how these posts have the tone of someone calling in to sports radio to say that the Bills are frauds who are just going to choke in the playoffs again

It's a shame Armchair Anime Wife Guy logged off. His takes were incredibly stupid and uninformed, but often in an amusingly dumb and self-contradictory way. And he did the RWA thing of talking about rah rah Russian army, and then would take a break to wax episodic about reactionary right-wing dreams of his own country and desired way of government.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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crepeface posted:

in what way?

*gestures at the special military operation in general*

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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At this point, it seems likely that father wear and tear has knocked out more HIMARS launchers than Russian targeting, and Russian forces have yet to post one image or video of HIMARS getting hit, though a few decoys have been hit and some trucks were mislabeled as HIMARS.

However, no real accounting for how many GMLRS have been or have not been destroyed in warehouses left of launch. The launchers individually matter less than the ammo supply and rate of resupply.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Ardennes posted:

The only MREs that ever looked good were the European ones. I would take a Russian MRE over an American one though, it is just basically random food from a grocery store.

MREs aren’t great but they’re “fine” and usually have a couple items that are a mix of good enough and fast/easy to eat.

but even in the field, if you’re not a light or highly mobile unit, probably getting 2 hot meals a day as FF described and an MRE for lunch or midnight meal.

Maybe it’s better now but Marine hot food was truly awful and an officially lower grade than army food.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost
eggs rule. Just a top tier food.

Boil em, fry em, drop em in a soup

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

Gulping Again posted:

I thought the secret to perfect scrambled eggs was never stop stirring

That's about 60% of Gordon Ramsey's advice.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost
This is a pretty decent read of the air war thus far in Ukraine. It starts with a rundown of how tactics changed over time, and the EXSUM is 1-2 pages of bulletized items in a pretty reasonable format. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence

It's written from a pro-arming Ukraine standpoint, but they don't really talk about that until the conclusion, so most of the discussion is free of rah rah posturing, and they keep the recommendations for the end of the paper rather than putting suggestions inside the analysis. They don't say "The Ghost of Kyiv is not real" in those exact words, but they say the Ghost of Kyiv is not real...

Executive Summary posted:

Executive Summary
• Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) conducted significantly more extensive fixed-wing strike
operations during the first days of the invasion than has been previously documented,
while Ukrainian ground-based air-defence (GBAD) capabilities were suppressed by
initial attacks.
• During this period, Ukrainian fighter aircraft inflicted some losses on VKS aircraft
but also took serious casualties due to being totally technologically outmatched and
badly outnumbered.
• Russian fighters have remained highly effective and lethal against Ukrainian aircraft
near the frontlines throughout the war, especially the Su-35S with the R-77-1 long-range
missile and, in recent months, the Mig-31BM with the R-37 very long-range missile.
• From early March, the VKS lost the ability to operate in Ukrainian-controlled airspace
except at very low altitudes due to its inability to reliably suppress or destroy increasingly
effective, well-dispersed and mobile Ukrainian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems.
• Russian GBAD has also been highly effective since March, especially the longrange S-400 SAM system supported by the 48Ya6 ‘Podlet-K1’ all-altitude long-range
surveillance radar system.
• Numerous man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS) provided to Ukrainian troops
and later mobile air-defence teams meant that low-altitude Russian fixed-wing and
rotary penetrating sorties beyond the frontlines proved to be prohibitively costly during
March, and ceased by April 2022.
• Throughout the war, most Russian airstrikes have been against pre-designated targets
with unguided bombs and rockets. The Su-34 fleet has regularly also fired standoff
missiles such as the Kh-29 and Kh-59 against fixed targets, and Su-30SM and Su-35S
fighters have regularly fired Kh-31P and Kh-58 anti-radiation missiles to suppress and
target Ukrainian SAM radars.
• Without air superiority, Russia’s attempts at strategic air attack have been limited to
expensive cruise and ballistic missile barrages at a much more limited scale. These failed
to achieve strategically decisive damage during the first seven months of the invasion.
However, the latest iteration is a more focused and sustainable bombardment of the
Ukrainian electricity grid, blending hundreds of cheap Iranian-supplied Shahed-136
loitering munitions against substations with continued use of cruise and ballistic missiles
against larger targets.
• The West must avoid complacency about the need to urgently bolster Ukrainian airdefence capacity. It is purely thanks to its failure to destroy Ukraine’s mobile SAM systems
that Russia remains unable to effectively employ the potentially heavy and efficient aerial
firepower of its fixed-wing bomber and multi-role fighter fleets to bombard Ukrainian
strategic targets and frontline positions from medium altitude, as it did in Syria.
The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
Bronk with Reynolds and Watling
• It follows that if Ukrainian SAMs are not resupplied with ammunition, and ultimately
augmented and replaced with Western equivalents over time, the VKS will regain the
ability to pose a major threat.
• In the short term, Ukraine also needs large numbers of additional MANPADS and radarguided anti-aircraft guns, such as the Gepard, to sustain and increase its ability to
intercept the Shahed-136s and protect its remaining power infrastructure and repairs
to damaged facilities.
• In the medium term, Ukraine needs cost-effective ways to defend itself against the
Shahed-136. One option could be compact radar and/or laser ranging and sighting
systems to allow numerous existing anti-aircraft guns to be much more accurate and
effective against them.
• The Ukrainian Air Force fighter force needs modern Western fighters and missiles to
sustainably counter the VKS. Russian pilots have been cautious throughout the war, so
even a small number of Western fighters could have a major deterrent effect.
• Any Western fighter supplied in the short–medium term needs to be capable of
dispersed operations using mobile maintenance equipment and small support teams,
and flying from relatively rough runways, to avoid being neutralised by Russian longrange missile strikes.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Pierogis. Fried potato pancakes.

"Aren't Pierogis Polish though and haven't like 60+ groups discovered frying potatoes?"

Look, if there's a regional food that everyone argues about who made it or whose is the real deal, it's probably pretty damned good, regardless of whoever first did it.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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gradenko_2000 posted:

If we begin from the premise that Russia called it wrong and started a war that they now realize they cannot win, it is a good thing if they decide to stop throwing good money after bad.

Yeah. But I bet they try to hold out for spring and recommit and see if they can achieve something next year.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Lostconfused posted:

I guess the Kerch bridge bombing was more effective than it appeared.

It is pretty jacked up and has far less capacity now. Russia has been shipping trains via ferry (which to be fair is how it was done before the bridge existed, but clearly less efficient than full up truck traffic and heavy rail).

Supposed to be fixed by July next year.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Turns out precision weapons that aren’t effectively targeted seem to do bad things to bridges compared with artillery units 80 years ago facing counter-fire.

Hell, destroying bridges proved hard for the USAF up through the end of the 1970s and led to specific requirements for more precise weaponry.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Frosted Flake posted:

Deciding on half of what was asked was worse than either leaving or committing the unpalatable amount required for a good result.

I’ve no faith that many more Western troops into Afghanistan for more time would have been a “good result.”

Cutting and leaving (or never occupying in the forst place) would have been preferable to inertia muddling along, yeah.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Frosted Flake posted:

What kills me is the entire western media was saying London and DC demanded Ukraine take Kherson before winter, it was do or die for Kiev,

That’s not true. I’m not sure where you are getting that idea. In fact, the US gov has been messaging pretty plainly that high risk moves by Ukraine are absolutely not required to maintain support and may be detrimental.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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speng31b posted:

did you miss the whole news report about "US advises taking Kherson is prerequisite for negotiation?"

There is a big difference between stating the fact that holding Kherson strengthens the holder’s negotiating position and demanding that Ukraine take Kherson before winter as it’s “do or die” for them.

The US position, since months ago when US was publicly downplaying Kherson and suggesting its capture is unnecessary, consistently been that Ukraine has support for months/years and does not have to show its homework ASAP to maintain support.

It’s been a talking point ITT that the Ukrainians are foolishly attacking and pushing back Russian forces in order to get media buzz for the west, but that isn’t really required for US support. Might be required for some other countries, I don’t know.

Look at what I said was plainly untrue:

Frosted Flake posted:

What kills me is the entire western media was saying London and DC demanded Ukraine take Kherson before winter, it was do or die for Kiev, and Russia gave it up without a fight.

The other reason it’s not true: Russia did not give it up without a fight. For a couple months they’ve been in a fight for control of Kherson and its supply lines. Russia lost that artillery and logistical battle, so they’re apparently not choosing to stick around for more or a close combat battle.

Russia has an opportunity to deliberately withdraw and preserve forces instead of losing in a more haphazard way later by being emotional about it.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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speng31b posted:

im not going to get into it over whether the US saying "taking Kherson is a prerequisite for negotiations"

When did the US say that? I guess I did miss this statement by the US government.

Google is failing me, can’t find any such statement.

mlmp08 has issued a correction as of 16:07 on Nov 10, 2022

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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speng31b posted:

US saying "taking Kherson is a prerequisite for negotiations"

Tried searching for that quote, but no luck finding it in the news or US statements.

This is the closest I could find, which is not a US state dept rep, but a pretty high ranking guy:

quote:

Milley said it’s possible the Russians will use the retreat to reset their troops for a spring offensive, but “there’s also an opportunity here, a window of opportunity for negotiation.”

But for negotiations to have a chance, both Russia and Ukraine would have to reach a “mutual recognition” that a military victory “is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means,” Milley said, citing the end of World War I as an example.

Is this what you are talking about? I assume not, because it says something completely different from your quote.

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mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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lmao the source of the article in your link is a Ukrainian newspaper, who has a vested interest in defending the wisdom of the Kherson offensive and its costs. It's so lacking in context, even then. https://english.nv.ua/nation/us-and-nato-see-peace-talks-between-ukraine-and-russia-only-if-ukraine-liberates-kherson-50282205.html

quote:

The message the United States is sending Ukraine through Brussels is that if and when Kherson is regained, then negotiations can be started.

Once Kherson is liberated, Ukraine could join the negotiations from a position of strength, the newspaper wrote.

...

Previously, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Putin is not offering Ukraine peace talks, but instead “surrender on their terms.”

For example, in this quote, it doesn't specify whether this alleged communication was meant to impart that the west would refuse to accept negotiations without Kherson (IMO, they would), or whether this is a judgment that Russia would be unwilling to negotiate if they still held Kherson throughout the winter into next spring offensive season. It also highlights that Zelenskyy said Russia refused to negotiate.

This is not close to evidence that the US and UK demanded that Ukraine take Kherson before winter, or it's do or die for them. Especially when the claim was that "the entire western media" was reporting this, and now the evidence is a stub article of less than 200 words in a Ukrainian news site. The Ukrainian article points back at an Italian report, but that Italian report is behind a paywall.

But here is what you can see without paywall in the Italian article:
"Confidential relations between Washington and Brussels identify a short-term negotiation window: reach the banks of the Dnipro and push for a ceasefire from a position of strength"

This does not show a demand from Washington and Brussels that Ukraine is ordered to take Kherson, it's an assessment that holding Kherson could open up the opportunity to convince Russia to enact a ceasefire.

If this is the evidence reported by the entire western media that the west won't tolerate negotations of any sort without taking Kherson, oh boy

Edit: I see you figured some of this out yourself, so sorry for responding after you went and found the source of the quotes.

I think now we can both see it's nothing close to demands from the west that Ukraine not be allowed to negotiate without achieving western military goals.

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