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Femtosecond posted:Why is GOOG being crucified today? https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-ai-chatbot-bard-offers-inaccurate-information-company-ad-2023-02-08/ The launched a big PR effort on how they were gonna crush ChatGPT and then people noticed that the AI generated content in their own ad was straight up wrong. I mean ChatGPT does that poo poo too and all this new AI bubble kicked off by ChatGPT is over hyped, but it's really loving embarrassing nobody even fact checked their own advertisement.
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Feb 8, 2023 21:37
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Toalpaz posted:
I was loving around with Fidelity's (non-garbage) bond stuff and their commission is $1 per bond ($1000 face value) so that's probably the same here. One thing about the secondary bond market is that it is a back alley chop shop compared to equities. Liquidity and execution obligations are way, way less compared to NMS stocks, and bond traders will gently caress you if given the chance. Even relatively upfront commission of $1 a bond can absolutely tank your yield if you're buying short dated bonds. For example, a bond quoted at 5.5% only has about $4-5 of interest per month per $1000. If you buy something that matures in 2 or 3 months you'd be losing 6-10% of your profits paying the commission. Edit: obviously the flip side to this is the commission is a lot cheaper if you buy long dated issues but then you'll get hosed by J Po raising rates if you even need to sell it before maturity. Plus it makes your portfolio look super sad because everything gets marked to thin liquidy markets. mrmcd fucked around with this message at 04:38 on Feb 10, 2023 |
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Feb 10, 2023 04:34
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If you've got an emergency fund parked in a savings account a thing you can do to squeeze a little more interest out of it is to put that money in brokered CDs. 1 - 3 month CDs are paying about 100-125 bps more than internet banks high yield savings accounts, and are also FDIC insured. Plus you don't need to keep opening and closing new accounts to rate chase and you can say funny poo poo like "this month my money is parked at the Northern Indiana Community Bank of Corn, and the Mizubashi Japanese Industrial New York Financing Bank" But yeah save investments are otherwise boring as poo poo.
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Feb 10, 2023 05:12
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So... Short any company that airs an ad with Larry David in the next 3 hours?
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Feb 13, 2023 00:02
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Hoo baby, a lot of Commercial Real Estate companies waited until 1:01 PST to send out some harsh news today Is the news "Oh wow hehe uh turns out this poo poo is harder than it looks when money isn't free"?
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Mar 2, 2023 22:23
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Hadlock posted:Are VWALX dividends not taxed as well? Looks like 2-3% annual dividend return Aiui interest from muni bonds have some special tax exempt treatment as a way of basically giving a federal subsidy to localities that want to borrow money for schools, roads, whatever. This basically lowers the interest rate on those bonds because a lower tax free yield is equivalent to a higher taxable yield. Then you have various muni bond funds and money market products with pass through taxes to let people take advantage of that tax treatment without having to go out and shop for a basket of munis manually. Obviously there's no point in these products in a tax advantaged account like an IRA or 401k where interest payments aren't taxed. The target market is high net worth high income individuals with money in taxable accounts that want a safe-ish income stream and can take advantage of the tax benefits.
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Mar 10, 2023 16:55
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FistEnergy posted:If I was looking for discounted stocks during a period of bank failures/weakness I don't think I would pick SoFi because I could see the same thing happening to them. Good luck though! SoFi seems to be a more normal retail bank, take deposits, make loans, issue credit and debit cards. They are just online only with lots of apps and targeting people who know what TikTok is.
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Mar 11, 2023 17:02
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Also rumor among VC people I know is FRC is next to die if the svb contagion isn't contained next week.
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Mar 11, 2023 23:15
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https://twitter.com/ben__rickert/status/1634731804652609536 Whelp, lol.
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Mar 12, 2023 03:00
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 *Pounding table* Bail out! Bail out! Bail out!
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Mar 12, 2023 04:03
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laxbro posted:I sent my kid to the FDIC daycare for a while. They have one of the nicest Federal buildings I’ve been in. Even has a swimming pool. 
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Mar 12, 2023 15:23
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/stevehouf/status/1635048569379127296 hell yeah a TARP sequel.
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Mar 12, 2023 23:55
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 Do not fret, for the NY Times is already hard at work selling Tech TARP to the American people.
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Mar 13, 2023 01:59
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Here's the loving thing that was going to save the world, probably. Lol it's an app connected subscription garbage can
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Mar 13, 2023 02:05
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Picked up a small position in SCHW. Pulled their call reports, and at the end of last quarter between 25% and 35% of their deposits were covered by available for sale (marked to market) securities in all of their banks. Plus they have a much broader customer base, generally bigger balance sheets, (I'm guessing) lots of flexibility in where withdrawals come from with their multibank sweeping model. Seems the panic selling of all banks makes it a good bargain, even if earnings do take a hit for a quarter. The discount is already so deep compared to a week ago a rough quarter or two might as well be priced in. I'm also a huge idiot though so feel free to tell me why I'm wrong.
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Mar 13, 2023 16:08
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Bremen posted:Judging by the fact that treasury bill yields are down like a whole percent in the last five days, I'm guessing for a lot of people the answer was there. Money market funds too, probably. (Which is mostly just t-bills and repo trades collateralized by t-bills, if I'm correctly understanding how they work)
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Mar 13, 2023 22:35
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Bremen posted:Judging by the fact that treasury bill yields are down like a whole percent in the last five days, I'm guessing for a lot of people the answer was there. I have some extra cash to roll over, and Fidelity just posted the new t-bill auctions. The expected yield of the 4 week bill dropped 25 bps in the like 3 minutes I took me to read over the table and click "preview order". A 4 week bill is now paying like ~5 bps more than SPAXX lol.
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Mar 14, 2023 18:09
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Yeah there's some 3mo brokered CDs touching 5% so I've been putting in bids on those for new issues. I don't wanna do a full year lockup for personal reasons and brokered CDs carry more interest rate risk because you can only sell them into a very very thin secondary market if you need the cash before maturity.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:36
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pmchem posted:also lol sucks to be this guy My friend ran into a similar issue with puts on a Russian index ETF. Fortunately he sold some of the position (because me and another friend yelled at him to take some profits off the table) before the symbol halted, never to resume. So he only lost about half the profits and still came out ahead, but ate about $30k when they expired.
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Mar 14, 2023 22:38
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:wait, walk me through this because i don't trade options. did robin hood allow someone to set up a put without owning the underlying shares, presumably paying the associated premiums, but won't let them exercise the option? is trading in sbny completely halted or could they offer to pay someone pennies on the dollar for the necessary shares to exercise the option? Every broker will let you do that if you're buying options. The standard contract clearly states you have to hold the underlying security to exercise. It's just that in most circumstances people don't bother, you just sell the option because as the expiration date approaches the trading price approaches the intrinsic value. Options market makers are happy to buy an almost expired in the money option (with a small discount for their trouble) and exercise it, so there's always a bid. The other thing some brokers will do is if you tell them to exercise they will just automatically buy the stock at market price for delivery. This is really just a convenience service for their customers but it doesn't work if the symbol isn't trading. They can't just take another customer's shares and deliver them, hoping to backfill the debt later if it ever trades again. One of the underappreciated risks of shorting a stock is you can be too correct and not be able to unwind your position and take profits.
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Mar 14, 2023 22:48
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pmchem posted:what broker? I don't know exactly, it might've been RH though. I don't think like, Fidelity or Schwab would be any different here though. They might be nicer in explaining why. The OCC will declare a cash settlement for when shares are cancelled, like in an acquisition or at the end of bankruptcy. That takes some time though and doesn't help you if your contracts are expiring on Friday.
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Mar 14, 2023 22:53
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OCC published this memo for SBNY: https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=52110 Aiui: 1) There's no restrictions on settling contracts 2) However NSCC has stopped settlements for this stock so OCC isn't going to be a central clearing house for this. If a broker needs to exercise a contract you have to: - Ask OCC who their counterparty is. - Contact that broker and settle the contract, which means swapping stock for cash. None of this works if you don't actually hold the stock though, which this angry Twitter person does not.
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Mar 14, 2023 23:07
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Sold my SCHW shares when my position hit +20%, overall easy money for 2 days. Now that means they will go another +30% or become a memestonk because I took my profits and didn't get greedy.
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Mar 15, 2023 18:21
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Jows posted:I remember Citigroup trading for like $1.xx after 2008. They did a big reverse split and haven't really done much since then. I thought about buying some then, I'm glad I did not. I thought you were exaggerating but nope it really has been mostly flat for 15 years.
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Mar 16, 2023 05:12
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Unrelated to any value analysis my wife recently interviewed for a job at Citi. After completing a hypothetical case study the hiring manager called her back and told her she was too qualified to work there and would just be miserable and unmotivated. I can't imagine wtf their corporate culture must be like if that's just a normal acceptable thing to tell job candidates.
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Mar 16, 2023 13:03
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I'm not a professional bank examiner or anything, but I feel like if FRC survives this week, it'll probably stay around as a going concern. That doesn't mean the equity won't have to be heavily diluted because this is absolutely the worst time you want to be raising capital as a bank. However, the BTFP is only giving banks a year of breathing room to sort out their balance sheet, and they might not have a choice. I wouldn't touch the stock unless you wanted to clench your rear end in a top hat real tight and trade the volatility.
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Mar 16, 2023 16:42
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pmchem posted:if you can say -- what job title or general type of position? this is an interesting anecdote this is a semi-public forum so I don't wanna burn any bridges by accident. I'll say it was an internal group that was focused on doing research and analysis about certain aspects of how the company operates, then presenting that research with recommendations to executive and other high level leadership audiences. It wasn't a client facing role or a retail branch position or anything like that. It's also nowhere near what I've done for a career so anything specific to the job I could be wrong about.
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Mar 16, 2023 19:43
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drk posted:Yellen did poorly in that clip, but what was she really going to say? Matt Levine pointed out this same issue of moral hazard from guaranteeing all deposits: Assume you have $100 in deposits and $10 in capital, and then do a dumb risky thing by betting all your bank's money on a coin flip. If you win, you get $110 return on your $10 capital and depositors are safe. If you lose, you lose $10 of capital, and the government loses $100 making depositors whole. When all banks have zero credit risk, the incentive is to attract as many deposits as possible and do insanely risky and dumb poo poo. At the same time it's clear now that our current deposit insurance regime is insufficient. Lots of depositors keep more than $250,000 of cash around, especially businesses that need it just for the course of their business, startups with 1-2 years runway, or companies that basically run shadow FBO accounts like all those Fintech payroll providers banking at svb. It's not a good outcome for society as a whole to expect every small and medium business owner to do a deep dive into the riskiness of a bank's capital structure against local and global economic trends. It's not their skill set, they won't do it, and will instead just bank at a megabank that carries an implicit tbtf government bailout promise. It really is getting caught between a rock and a hard place for bank regulators. Long term, regulators and Congress need to reexamine how depositors interact with the banking system in 2023. We need a better system to divide ordinary people and businesses who just need banking services-- because banking services that work well are good for society-- and people we expect to do sophisticated counterparty risk when entering into a creditor relationship with a bank. Right now we use a system of "has more or less than $250,000" which in retrospect is clearly not a good one. Unfortunately I don't have a lot of confidence that our current Congress even has the ability to do this kind of important yet intellectually difficult legislation, much less the willpower. mrmcd fucked around with this message at 10:53 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 10:51
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Red posted:Now to look at where SCHW is and take a big sip of coffee For once I managed to sell at the top.
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Mar 24, 2023 13:48
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Is BUD really taking a 4% haircut for no reason than dumb poo poo right wingers are mad they hired a trans person?
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Apr 13, 2023 16:21
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ranbo das posted:Which is exactly when they emerged from bankruptcy. That's the whole point, at the start of the pandemic things looked grim, they filed for bankruptcy. A year later car prices went wonky and they were able to emerge. Not just used car prices, but demand for rental cars (and rental car rates) went absolutely bonkers between summer 2020 through 2021. People were too afraid to fly anywhere but pretty much the entire Northeast had the idea of "Driving to Maine" for vacation and many places around NYC were quoting $100-$120 a day for a basic shitbox car that wasn't even vacuumed after the last renter.
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Apr 26, 2023 14:08
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One of the main things the Fed does as a central bank is set the price of money. The RRP is one of the main tools that have to do that, because when they let the RRP rate rise, it siphons money out of the parts of the banking system that are paying less than that. Similarly, if they want to lower the price of money, a low RRP rate pushes those dollars to go look for better returns elsewhere. This trickles down to interest rates for everything else in the economy. Central banking. Yay. Also, the list of RRP counterparties is published here: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties. It's mostly not banks, but money market funds. The idea of a) take customer deposits, then b) park them at the Fed RRP, and c) keep a spread for your trouble is called "Narrow Banking", and some people are actually trying to start a narrow bank, and the Fed keeps telling them no. The people at the Fed hate the idea of narrow banking for various reasons, but the main one being that a bank that lends deposits for businesses and mortgages and other economic investments is (usually) beneficial to society, while a bank that just sits on a dragon hoard of Fed deposits is not, and possible actively harmful in a banking confidence crisis because they would siphon all the deposits from other banks. Some Fed people have recently published papers that this is what's actually happening now with MMFs. The combination of the regional bank crisis and just generally lovely deposit rates from many banks is pushing people to withdraw deposits and put them in MMFs. The MMFs put them in t-bills but more and more in the RRP, if they inventory of t-bills isn't enough to beat the RRP rate. So these MMFs now have trillions of dollars payable on demand (sometimes you can even get a atm card and write checks!), with the cash parked at very short term, risk-free government facilities, and are essentially shadow narrow banks. The Fed hates narrow banks, have stumbled onto creating narrow banks in all but name, and aren't sure what to do about it. mrmcd fucked around with this message at 15:25 on May 1, 2023 |
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May 1, 2023 15:19
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Hadlock posted:How does one get in the business of starting banks? Probably a bad time to start one now, but there'll probably be demand for them here in about 18 months after the current crop has been absorbed, and getting a state banking license probably takes at least a year Hasn't there been, like, very few new banks opened since Dodd-Frank? I remember reading about the hilariously named Bird-in-Hand Bank that's an Amish bank and how it was the first bank to open since 2008 despite opening in 2013. Maybe that doesn't include credit unions though. I imagine the huge regulatory hurdles plus difficulty in building a branch network and depositor base that competes with megabanks make it not very attractive outside of a few specialty niches.
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May 12, 2023 04:00
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Whole Foods or that insane grocery store in LA that had like $25 smoothies are the stores for conspicuously broadcasting your extra disposable income and class markers. Target's just, like, the slightly nicer version of Wal-Mart.
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Jun 4, 2023 02:59
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Boris Galerkin posted:Can someone explain to a dumb person (me) why the Yellow trucking company closed at like $0.71 on Friday, but is trading at $1.76 right this very moment even though they have declared bankruptcy and that they’re going to fire all 30,000 employees? I mean, without any employees how do stock traders expect them to actually do a business? Without doing any Googling my assumption is a combination of idiot memestonk reddit people and buying pressure from shorts closing their positions.
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Jul 31, 2023 23:17
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Fireside Nut posted:Sorry if these are silly questions but I’ve never traded options beyond simple buying calls/puts. If you sell calls/puts, you can just close them at any time like that? I figured you have to white knuckle it out until the expiration date. You gotta buy back the contract but yeah. An example would be say you sell a Put for $1 and then 3 weeks later buy the same Strike/Date for $0.20, making an $0.80 profit per share. Since you bought the same number of contracts as you sold your position is closed. At expiration (or early exercise) the OCC just nets out all the ITM contracts and sends instructions to brokers on where to send shares and money.
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Aug 6, 2023 02:22
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Baddog posted:Lot of uncallable 5%+ brokerable CDs out there right now, I've been picking up a few. Yeah that's basically getting a little more interest for giving the bank one way optionality. But sometimes those CDs aren't callable until after a certain date so you might wanna check that too. JPM has way more deposits than they need iirc so it's not surprising their bid for cash isn't very good.
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Aug 9, 2023 17:38
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Subvisual Haze posted:It occurs to me that between some lucky earnings trades and the much higher interest rates on t-bills and MMFs and such this year I might need to withhold some extra federal taxes from my paycheck to avoid an underpayment penalty on next year's taxes. Punished by success. That sounds like a bear to calculate. You can also just send estimated payments too. Technically you're SUPPOSED to send them quarterly for things like dividends and self employment, but in my experience as long as all your combined payments cover your tax burden come tax time they won't ding you.
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Aug 11, 2023 03:16
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Also (lol not tax advice not a qualified tax advisor) if you wanna do a quick and dirty tax estimate: - your most recent paystub should have the ytd total income and taxes withheld. - your brokerage should give you a ytd tally on dividend, interest, and capital gains. - add all those numbers (investment income + job income) to get your total income so far. - look up in the tax tables the tax amount for your filing status. - if the amount withheld by your job is less than that log on to the IRS website and send the difference as an estimated payment. Save the receipt for returns next year. This will likely overestimate what you owe because it assumes no discount for qualified dividends and ltgc. I'm sure actual tax pros are screaming at their computer screens right now but that's what I do and it works.
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Aug 11, 2023 03:26
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Specifically the share authorization vote was never voted down, it just never hit the minimum voting percentage to be valid, because memestonk idiots don't know how to vote proxy forms. But the corporate charter let them issue a bunch of preferred shares that can do all kinds of wild poo poo so they gave all the shareholders APE shares that automatically voted yes at 10x weight if you didn't vote. There were a bunch of lawsuits about it but the AMC board eventually won after throwing a few extra dollars at the common shareholders. A judge held it up for a few weeks on some obscure legal technicality which caused another stupid reddit conspiracy theory but it was never not gonna happen. The legal hold up was a small detail that they fixed in like an hour and just took a few weeks for the judge to formally stamp her approval on it.
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Aug 12, 2023 03:33
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