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Seth Pecksniff posted:If that's the case this is going to be absolutely ugly Not entirely certain it will be, but maybe, yeah. The big thing is whether or not Rogers and other similar folks get walked over and can't retaliate, whether Mccarthy can keep the establishment in line to keep his career advancing in spite of it loving over the establishment in favor of an increasingly dangerous and predatory (and in the case of LGBT minorities outright genocidal) wing of his party that are completely bonkers, and how lunatic the right wingers are going to be (this is almost certainly a "very loving crazy" fwiw). From the current looks of it Mccarthy's forward movement in his career might be done after this term however, barring nothing changing. And good riddance, given he's one of the reasons why the GOP keeps doubling down into bigotry and Fox News type batshit insanity. Dude made his bargain with these lunatics way back when and now he's paying for it. Also, selling your own members out to keep a sliver of power when the other side is made up of anti american nutbags and viciously genocidal christian nutbags is not a good look on any side. So who knows what things are like behind closed doors at the moment. The desire to keep getting more power (which is really the only thing binding the GOP together at this point) might overcome all of that and let this get sweeped under the table though. Archonex fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Jan 7, 2023 |
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Jan 7, 2023 15:42
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The rules fight is currently set to potentially be an even bigger shitshow than the Speaker race. So long as Kevin was promising crazy poo poo, there was a good chance the rest of the party would save him from the crazier rules. However if he's giving away people's chairmanships, the rule where 1 member can call for his ouster is going to be set in stone. Which then snowballs from there as everyone scrambles to get their specific bribe codified into the rules instead of just being a pinky promise with Kevin.
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Jan 7, 2023 15:55
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Archonex posted:Not entirely certain it will be, but maybe, yeah. The big thing is whether or not Rogers and other similar folks get walked over and can't retaliate, whether Mccarthy can keep the establishment in line to keep his career advancing in spite of it loving over the establishment in favor of an increasingly dangerous and predatory (and in the case of LGBT minorities outright genocidal) wing of his party that are completely bonkers, and how lunatic the right wingers are going to be (this is almost certainly a "very loving crazy" fwiw). This is what I'm trying to figure out: HOW is he keeping the rest in line? What's the benefit to supporting McCarthy for the "true" Republicans? I'd say it's "party over politics" but McCarthy has made it really loving clear that it's not about what's best for the party (which would have been stepping aside over the holidays and allowing a compromise speaker get approved on the first ballot), it's about what's best for him. I'd say it's McCarthy controlling chairships and such, but he's made it VERY clear that you get ahead in the McCarthy regime by opposing him. Are they looking ahead to the next term, or to the term after that, hoping that Republicans get a big enough majority that the true party members get their just reward? Seems hopeful given that a decent (and possibly growing) number of Republicans support "No governance is better than some governance". Do they fear McCarthy's campaign chest would be used against them? Is there anyone that's figured this out?
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Jan 7, 2023 16:08
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Most of the party is cooperating with their supposed allies because they're mature adults who know that's how you get ahead in life most of the time, and they want that norm to return. The rest are sociopaths busily collapsing the prisoners dilemma of our society because they're shortsighted, malicious, ignorant idiots. Unfortunately once the dilemma starts collapsing that's the winning strategy unless the collapsers are punished.
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Jan 7, 2023 16:23
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Pendragon posted:This is what I'm trying to figure out: HOW is he keeping the rest in line? What's the benefit to supporting McCarthy for the "true" Republicans? I'm not certain, but just for starters I'd check the party donors and where the money is going. If McCarthy is like Pelosi and has direct control of the purse strings (or just influence over it) then he has a certain amount of carte blanche to abuse his power so long as the donors back him up. And they will, obviously, since there's a lot of multi millionaire and billionaire anti-US types that are mad they can't disregard regulations/labor laws/civil rights/not hurt minorities/whatever that donate in large sums to the GOP. Groups like the Federalist society are somewhat infamous for being lovely bad actors that try to sabotage things. In fact, that example is notable since once of their VP's is a chairman or something like that for the Heritage Foundation, an equally infamous christian hate group that is one of about three or four primary writers of legislation that targets minorities (transgender people as of late, since they can't go after gay people anymore or black people before that) to get the vote out for Republican politicians. However, another thing to consider is that a good chunk of the donor class for the GOP is all in on the crazy train too, seeing anything past 1950's civil repression as being too loving "woke" for their liking. Or sometimes they (Like Peter Thiel.) are just straight up anti-democratic and want an autocracy or something crazy like that. So it's a good place to check first, though i'm not certain what the current sites are that try to track all the above and especially below board money that goes into the Republicans. Edit: In addition to that the establishment GOP is scared shitless of Fox News and other right wing fake news outlets similar to them, since they're a key part of them maintaining their dominance over the narratives that keep their base in line in voting. So there's an element of fear of bucking the status quo of lies and exploitation on that end too by pushing back against the crazy for fear of being the next person to be made an example of by losing your seat come the next election. Of course, this is a stupid thing to fear, since you can't reason with a mob of rabid regressive reactionaries. They'll always sight down on a target to escalate onto until someone beats them into submission by force (be it political, social, or physical), and no matter how hard you try even allies of them (be it through genuine maliciousness towards others or opportunism) can be targeted with the right media impetus to justify it. Hell, McCarthy barely even criticized Trump for most of his term or the radical republican extremists overtaking the party bit by bit and look what's happening to him now. His "crime" is mostly just being in power when there was an expectation of the government getting rid of all of the dirty (insert racist/bigoted/phobic slur here) only for it to obviously not happen since whatever batshit insane conspiracy theory tier horseshit from the far right that spawned this expectation can't be addressed without genocide or crimes against the people occurring since the far right's complaints aren't things that actually exist in reality. Archonex fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Jan 7, 2023 |
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Jan 7, 2023 16:38
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Pendragon posted:This is what I'm trying to figure out: HOW is he keeping the rest in line? What's the benefit to supporting McCarthy for the "true" Republicans? The distance between the leftmost Republican and a Freedom Kook is, generally speaking, not all that far. Philosophically, they may disagree as to whether certain bits of gamesmanship or priorities are a good idea or not, but in terms of the time-honored Republican mantra (More Money For Us, gently caress You), they are wholly on board. There is also a sense that even for many of the Kooks, their brave patriotic stands for FREEDOM FROM TYRANNY and TRUE CONSERVATISM are performative bullshit. That they're going balls-to-the-wall for debt default and Hunter's laptop and investigating Dr. Fauci's ties to al-Qaeda and SPECTRE not so much because they're wholehearted true believers in QAnon and the John Birch Society and whatnot, but because catering to the masses who are and who have been trained to believe all of that by forty years of mass media bombardment is a very successful election strategy for them. I mean, look at Matt Gaetz, if you can stand to. Do you buy the idea that he truly believes in ANYTHING, other than "more money for me" and "I would like my pee-pee fondled right about now" and "where's the alcohol?" Look at the pile of Kooks who stood bravely for America and God and apple pie right up until the moment that their price was met, then folded like a cheap suit, Gaetz included. (All the while, Trumpoids were on social media howling at the Chip Roy types who folded first, screaming HOLD THE LINE at them and declaring that McCarthy's election means civil war because he's bought and paid for by the Uniparty. "Uniparty," in this context, means anything in which non-Turner Diaries Book Club folk have any say.) But for the rank and file, they, too are painfully aware that their jobs depend on placating the base. They have seen many of their established colleagues insert reason and principle into their decisions and subsequently get primaried out by a gun-toting hog farmer. And if they're weighing getting screwed by McCarthy's backroom deals with loudmouths versus setting their careers on fire and joining up with political opponents, watch as nearly every one of them decides that putting up with the loudmouths and the unfairness of it all is the lesser evil. Some will protest for a bit. Tony Gonzales, for example, already has, and some others will follow. But it won't last, because they know they're better off putting up with bad Republican deals than in bucking more than feebly against the movement.
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Jan 7, 2023 17:00
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Thanks for the perspectives. This has been puzzling me.Archonex posted:Edit: In addition to that the establishment GOP is scared shitless of Fox News and other right wing fake news outlets similar to them, since they're a key part of them maintaining their dominance over the narratives that keep their base in line in voting. So there's an element of fear of bucking the status quo of lies and exploitation on that end too by pushing back against the crazy for fear of being the next person to be made an example of by losing your seat come the next election. While this far no doubt exists among Republicans, it doesn’t seem to be affecting support for McCarthy. If all Republicans truly feared Fox News, they wouldn’t have nominated McCarthy to begin with since he’s the epitome of the swamp (despite kissing Trump’s ring, great example of how a mob isn’t reasonable as you point out). Maybe a combination of McCarthy’s “NO IT’S MY TURN MAKE ME THE SPEAKER” and trying to appease the mob?
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Jan 7, 2023 17:05
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Pendragon posted:Thanks for the perspectives. This has been puzzling me. Thing is, McCarthy isn't being attacked because of the "swamp". He's being attacked because he's an obstacle to an even more right wing and extremist group's desire for more power; whom have noticed that the unstable vicissitudes of the base's batshit insanity has swung around to giving them a casus belli to take a swing at the party for their own gain. Or to put it in a more clear way, the crazies amongst the base have arbitrarily decided that McCarthy must suffer for his "failures" (which don't really exist, again, since what incites them is all made up bullshit that they wanted him and those like him to do to those in a weaker position than them). That he does not submit to their will (Which basically just boils down to "suffer and die". So i'm not really faulting him for this since there's no bottom to debasing himself that would appease most of those types) means to them that he's bought and paid for by [insert boogieman of the week here], a traitor, etc, etc. This is the perfect situation for anyone, politician or donor, to try and force the party into even further right leaning extremism by being spoilers for the party establishment's agenda, which would cease* in exchange for concessions to go further to the right or embolden the capabilities of the suicide caucus types as they've negotiated for. In fact, McCarthy's corruption in favor of extremist right wingers is part of why he enjoyed a relative lack of criticism as speaker. It's just that now an even worse group has decided he's outlived his usefulness to them now that they have enough members to force the party even further to the right towards (given the actions of states like Florida and Texas quite possibly murderous) extremism. Turns out that trusting a bunch of extremists in a party of shifty motherfuckers overall is a bad play! As for the establishment? Well, they're the ones getting hosed over. It remains to be seen if they'll just roll over and take this or not. Roger's reaction, if largely held, suggests no. However the whole con the GOP pushes on the base is liable to fall apart if the party splits too openly, so maybe this will just get swept under the rug. TL;DR: Stop assuming that the Republicans are ever arguing in good faith and take a more cynical realpolitik look to it and the whole scenario makes a frightening amount of sense. * Note that this is hilariously unlikely. If there's one thing you can count on with the Republicans it's that they'll plant a knife in your back at the slightest chance to gently caress you over. Archonex fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Jan 7, 2023 |
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Jan 7, 2023 17:09
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Pendragon posted:While this far no doubt exists among Republicans, it doesn’t seem to be affecting support for McCarthy. If all Republicans truly feared Fox News, they wouldn’t have nominated McCarthy to begin with since he’s the epitome of the swamp (despite kissing Trump’s ring, great example of how a mob isn’t reasonable as you point out). Maybe a combination of McCarthy’s “NO IT’S MY TURN MAKE ME THE SPEAKER” and trying to appease the mob? Major Fox News figures, with Tucker Carlson as the exception, have been calling this Speaker fight out as nonsense and saying, guys, McCarthy is more than good enough, he'll fight for what we want, there's no one you can nominate who can get more than 20 votes, shut up and elect him already? TRUMP gave McCarthy a mid-clusterfuck endorsement. Marge was on the phone trying to get Rosendale to listen to Trump personally on the phone during last night's shitstorm. Part of it is that McCarthy is greedy and masochistic enough to want the job, and few others would want to even get near it under these circumstances. Right-wing media is not in total lockstep; it has its splinters. The right-wing cycle (step further to the right, scream loudly, repeat) can happen at different speeds. Outlets like Newsmax and OANN, blogs, websites, social media clusters, talk radio C-listers break with the Fox empire because there are hordes of people out there who don't want gradual change in a conservative direction; they want power and money and influence and control, they want it NOW, they're being told that it should be theirs NOW, they're entitled to it NOW, and they're viewing anyone who's not giving it to them now, left or center or right, as the problem. The craziest are also generally the loudest in any social situation. There aren't nearly as many full-blown Dominionists and overt white supremacists and when-do-we-get-to-use-the-guns wackaloons as they think there are, but the Internet makes it easy for them to find each other and believe in the illusion of their collective strength. The 'mainstream' right knows this, and views the ultra-right as useful idiots to be farmed and utilized. The problem comes, as has been creeping along for decades, when the useful idiots start actually seizing positions of power and declaring the old guard the enemy.
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Jan 7, 2023 17:25
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Pendragon posted:Thanks for the perspectives. This has been puzzling me. If absolutely anyone other than McCarthy wanted the job, or if there were much more than tactical differences between the wings of the party, there might have been a purity fight. However McCarthy is the only person stupid enough to want to deal the the headache of trying to lead a bare majority Republican caucus. The main issues that McCarthy had with this vote is that he's a dumbfuck who was far too clear that he was desperate to be Speaker. The clearer he made it that he wanted to be speaker like a tweaker would fancy a little ice, the more people started pulling knives and making demands. There are obviously other reasons to not want to be lead by such a cowardly, lying rear end, but his original sin was presenting as an easy mark to a group of congenital bullies and grifters. Especially since the narrow margin meant that only a couple dickheads could hold everything up, which makes the Speakership a prime hostage target.
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Jan 7, 2023 17:31
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Gyges posted:The rules fight is currently set to potentially be an even bigger shitshow than the Speaker race. So long as Kevin was promising crazy poo poo, there was a good chance the rest of the party would save him from the crazier rules. However if he's giving away people's chairmanships, the rule where 1 member can call for his ouster is going to be set in stone. Which then snowballs from there as everyone scrambles to get their specific bribe codified into the rules instead of just being a pinky promise with Kevin. Does this also include democrats? E.G: A democrat being able to call for his ousting? Or is it exclusive to republicans? Can't figure that would be very fair if it was an option reserved souly for republicans.
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Jan 7, 2023 17:32
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Cumdog Millionaire posted:Does this also include democrats? E.G: A democrat being able to call for his ousting? Calls for McCarthy's head will be limited to Republicans in the rules. There are ways for a full majority to call for a vote, but that would include way more Republicans teaming up with Democrats than are necessary to call a vote on their own.
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Jan 7, 2023 17:36
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Gyges posted:The rules fight is currently set to potentially be an even bigger shitshow than the Speaker race. So long as Kevin was promising crazy poo poo, there was a good chance the rest of the party would save him from the crazier rules. However if he's giving away people's chairmanships, the rule where 1 member can call for his ouster is going to be set in stone. Which then snowballs from there as everyone scrambles to get their specific bribe codified into the rules instead of just being a pinky promise with Kevin. quote:Matt Gaetz says he finally flipped his vote to “present” on the House speaker vote after Kevin McCarthy caved to every one of his demands. Source If Matt Gaetz ran out of poo poo to ask for I have to think it's very plausible there's a chairmanship with his name on it, just above someone else's scribbled out name.
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Jan 7, 2023 19:35
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Cabbit posted:Source Man, can you even imagine what a full vote would cost then? Kevin is the worst negotiator.
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Jan 7, 2023 19:46
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Jesus Christ, Kevin. You gave Gaetz everything he could possibly think of? The gently caress's wrong with you? Please somebody end the page program before it's too late. Also check what's up with our new $50 million line in the budget for booze and hookers.
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Jan 7, 2023 19:52
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Gaetz finally getting ready to head a commission about the size of Hunter's penis and why the Jan 6th insurrection was actually totally cool and legal
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Jan 7, 2023 19:56
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CNN posted:Asked why he reversed course on McCarthy, Gaetz said, “I ran out of things I could even imagine to ask for.”
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Jan 7, 2023 19:58
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Madkal posted:Gaetz finally getting ready to head a commission about the size of Hunter's penis and why the Jan 6th instruction was actually totally cool and legal n "Thankfully" contempt of congress is just a slap on the wrist so it'll be funny when none of his subpoenas are honored. Or Gym Jordan's, I guess, since he'll be Judiciary.
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Jan 7, 2023 19:58
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Imagine caving to a degenerate acolyte of chaos so hard they can't even think of any new way for you to debase yourself. Now imagine that all of that, everything you gave up, didn't even get you his vote. No, instead he voted Present.
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Jan 7, 2023 20:02
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Gyges posted:Imagine caving to a degenerate acolyte of chaos so hard they can't even think of any new way for you to debase yourself. Now imagine that all of that, everything you gave up, didn't even get you his vote. No, instead he voted Present. And now imagine all of the unlimited power he has over you personally and professionally for the rest of his and your careers, whichever one ends first.
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Jan 7, 2023 20:04
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Honestly, the establishment R's should just stonewall and go back on any agreement with Gaetz now that the speaker is decided. The guy is as slimey as they come and will absolutely not honor any agreements that require him to do something so there's no real reason to think that he isn't the Republican equivalent of a Manchin or Sinema. This would also be the most hilarious outcome too since Gaetz is way overdue in getting screwed over for his bullshit. Dude would tantrum hard. Archonex fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Jan 7, 2023 |
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Jan 7, 2023 20:28
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Torrannor posted:There's still absolutely nothing the nutters can do to stop and actual majority of the House to vote in a clear debt ceiling increase. That would necessitate finding 6 non-insane Republicans willing to vote against the rest of their party with all the Democrats. This shitshow has been amazing to watch, and I don't care about all the performative investigations and poo poo they were gonna do anyway, but unless someone can explain something I'm missing it seems like the most consequential outcome of all this is that the crazy wing of the party potentially has much, much more influence on the one thing the house still actually has to do with real consequences. Which seems pretty bad. I suppose that'll be something that becomes more obvious when the rules package gets decided? McCarthy could just not follow through on his promises or the other Republicans could reject some of the insane stuff with the help of some Democrats, but if Gaetz actually gets what he seems to want, particularly the ability to plunge the house right back into this chaos at his whim, it seems like he might be able to enforce some of the crazy deals he surely got out of McCarthy.
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Jan 7, 2023 20:33
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If anyone's curious, here are the raw text and an analysis of what's currently pending for house rules. There's still a ton to finalize and they need formally introduced but you can see what were in for Monday.
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Jan 7, 2023 20:39
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Archonex posted:Honestly, the establishment R's should just stonewall and go back on any agreement with Gaetz now that the speaker is decided. The guy is as slimey as they come and will absolutely not honor any agreements that require him to do something so there's no real reason to think that he isn't the Republican equivalent of a Manchin or Sinema. Isn’t one of the new rules that one person can call a new vote for speaker? If they start going back on deals won’t they just wind up where they started lol
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Jan 7, 2023 20:50
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roffles posted:Isn’t one of the new rules that one person can call a new vote for speaker? If they start going back on deals won’t they just wind up where they started lol Presumably this would be another thing they just axe?
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Jan 7, 2023 20:54
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parthenocarpy posted:Presumably this would be another thing they just axe? Have they even got these rules set in stone yet because lol at that going through in a party as power hungry as the Republicans. The debt ceiling stuff is legit terrifying though given how crazy the Republicans are nowadays. We know what happens when a country defaults on it's debt due to historical examples and it's loving ugly. Like, depending on how bad things go it's "you're better off emigrating than waiting for the country and your life in it to recover" levels of ugly. Just as a recent example that I can recall: Mexico did it and it put them into a massive slump that they're still feeling the effects of. For America to do that it'd be even worse. We're looking at the collapse of the global economy in the short term, the extremely likely possibility that the US dollar is no longer considered a primary standard of currency and trade (which means losing all the privileges that the US takes for granted that come with it), and generally just utter chaos and at the absolute worst possibly great depression levels of goods being unaffordable leading to potential starvation depending on how bad the whole situation is handled and what sort of rebound happens. It'd be like Brexit but on steroids, only with all the stops that would keep the economy from going into the shitter on a historic level yanked out by financial interests fleeing overseas with their monetary assets. Which means that feckless monsters like Gaetz are of course going to try and rip the country to shreds because of their insane and bigoted views. Archonex fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Jan 7, 2023 |
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Jan 7, 2023 20:57
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The only winner here is five guys. Went for the first time in years after seeing them boxes
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Jan 7, 2023 21:01
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parthenocarpy posted:Presumably this would be another thing they just axe? I guess my assumption is that they wouldn’t have the votes to make any significant changes without triggering another voting deadlock given how crazy things have gotten.
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Jan 7, 2023 21:11
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Archonex posted:Have they even got these rules set in stone yet because lol at that going through in a party as power hungry as the Republicans. I’m not worried. I do not have faith in republicans desire to do the right thing but I do have faith in their cowardice.
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Jan 7, 2023 21:17
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So the putin-friendly wing of the GOP jams up the house - whose assent is required for any further spending of us taxpayer dollars on ukraine - and relents, finally, after a russian agent secured the armed services gavel.
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Jan 7, 2023 21:31
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Uglycat posted:So the putin-friendly wing of the GOP jams up the house - whose assent is required for any further spending of us taxpayer dollars on ukraine - and relents, finally, after a russian agent secured the armed services gavel. Most of the US has been pretty solidly pro-Ukraine, and Gaetz has zero charisma, I think he's more likely to drive independent voters away by being loudly anti-Ukraine.
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Jan 7, 2023 22:07
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StumblyWumbly posted:That's a worst case possibility, but they just passed a budget in December with like $40b for Ukraine, plus I think the President has some leeway to fund Ukraine under his own power like lend-lease or whatever. It doesn't matter for Gaetz personally as he's in one of the safest red districts in the country.
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Jan 7, 2023 22:10
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Biden should give Matt Gaetz's new committee something to investigate by putting Hunter on the trillion dollar coin
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Jan 7, 2023 22:46
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Archonex posted:Have they even got these rules set in stone yet because lol at that going through in a party as power hungry as the Republicans. Well I think there are enough non-crazies in the GOP that realize the ramifications of the actions there. I think everyone knows that any nonsense on the debt ceiling is DOA in the Senate. Enough will blink and pass a clean bill at the final hour, that is if they still have a majority by that point frankly. They have a razor thin majority at the moment, with Santos almost certainly gone within months, so that number will be down to 4 likely. There is a non-zero chance that they lose 4 more members due to death, corruption or scandal in the next 24 months. They don't have the leeway to give everything to the crazies to alienate the rank and file or even worse make those in competitive districts look wildly out of touch and extreme. That being said I am almost certain they are going to pull some poo poo with government shutdowns/budgets because that doesn't effect the world economy as much and they always think they score points doing it. At the end of the day they are going to have to work with Democrats to get just about anything accomplished which in turn means their insane plans are never going to get off the ground outside of investigations and whatnot.
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Jan 7, 2023 22:53
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Seems like more of a reason to remove the natural born citizen clause, especially since we’re not so worried about The King sneaking his Royal Blood into the office anymore. maybe YOU'RE not, have you seen Chuck lately?
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Jan 7, 2023 23:02
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There is a close to 0% chance Santos gets removed.
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Jan 7, 2023 23:03
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Gyges posted:Calls for McCarthy's head will be limited to Republicans in the rules. There are ways for a full majority to call for a vote, but that would include way more Republicans teaming up with Democrats than are necessary to call a vote on their own. Given that congress is pretty much left to govern itself, is there anything stopping Republicans from saying "If Democrats want to vote, they have to do it by mail, and it has to be deposited by hand in a mailbox in bumfuck Alaska that gets pickups once a month"? Besides decorum and a desire to not be subject to the same rules when they lose the house, I mean.
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Jan 7, 2023 23:07
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koolkal posted:There is a close to 0% chance Santos gets removed. Yeah there's no way they're going to get rid of him for being a fraud. First off just about everyone in the Republican party is a fraud of some kind (Rubio lying about his parents, for example). Secondly if McCarthy didn't have the balls to remove the House Treason Caucus after 1/6, when he could've easily been rid of them and this stupid vote nonsense he's not going to remove Santos.
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Jan 7, 2023 23:07
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James Garfield posted:Biden should give Matt Gaetz's new committee something to investigate by putting Hunter's enormous dong on the trillion dollar coin
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Jan 7, 2023 23:08
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koolkal posted:There is a close to 0% chance Santos gets removed. I'm not saying it's likely, but at this point I'd be completely unsurprised if he faked his district residency, US citizenship, and/or not having murdered the original George Santos and stolen his identity
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Jan 7, 2023 23:11
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