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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

In other news and kadyrov apparently is having a crisis of the kidneys. People are claiming that he has been poisoned. As the kidneys backup once the liver starts to fail it could be other things.

With this poisoning we could see a reconcentration of power however this may not be by Putin exactly but by other elements in the Russian government who are trying to solidify their grasp on the future post Putin Russia.

My impression is that the FSB's poisoning methods tend to be a bit more decisive, so I'm not sure how officially sanctioned this was. I imagine he has no shortage of enemies though.

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the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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steinrokkan posted:

Why would FSB want to kill Kadyrov, though. He is an important state asset. Anyway, I'm afraid the sources reporting the supposed poisoning are dubious at best

A few weeks ago he was talking about wanting to form his own PMC, so I guess it's conceivable Moscow thought he was getting too big for his britches? But this again seems like it would more likely point to a rival rather than his boss (assuming the whole thing isn't made up.)

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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steinrokkan posted:

I mean he already has a personal PMC in all but name, in the form of Chechen forces, and it's even funded by Russian budget. Yes, if he has enemies trying to kill him, I think it's safe to say they aren't working for Putin.

The statement he made specifically talks about wanting to compete with Wagner, while in the same breath effusively praising Wagner's results. Which, from a :tinfoil: perspective, could be interpreted as him being aware he was talking about a dangerous subject and trying to tread carefully.

All just rampant speculation though, nothing to do now except wait and see.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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EDIT: hadn't seen IK post yet

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Turtle Watch posted:

Even in 2014, before Maidan roughly 70 percent of Crimea was ethnically Russian, and the vast majority of them sided with Russia over Ukraine repeatedly as in the 1991 referendum, the 1992 election, the 1994 Declaration of Independence, the Orange revolution, Maidan and 2014- on.

What group of them are designated as colonists? All of them? Those who arrived after annexation in 2014? those who were born after Crimea was transferred to Ukraine in 1954? By what practical or ethical mechanism could you do any of that against the popular will of the majority of Crimea?

Technically both Ukrainians and Russians are colonizers.

In all the elections cited that did not have Russian boots on the ground Crimea ultimately compromised with Ukrainian rule, despite its obvious cultural and political yearnings towards Russia. Presumably, this is a reflection of the pragmatic reality that Crimea is dependent on Ukraine as a matter of geography.

Personally I'm all for Crimean self-determination, but they can't self-determine access to Ukraine's water.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Propping up Ukraine has so impoverished the UK that they are reduced to eating British food.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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It's always been true that Bakhmut is a better fortified stronghold than the terrain behind Bakhmut. If Russia has enough strength to force Ukraine back from Bakhmut, then it also has enough strength to force Ukraine back from the less-defensible lines behind Bakhmut. So Ukraine's options are either 1) hold Bakhmut, 2) destroy enough of Russia's forces at Bakhmut that they cannot effectively advance further, or 3) get pushed back to Slovyansk and watch another small city get turned to rubble.

When you're looking at a map of Ukraine playing armchair general, option #3 seems a lot more palatable than it does when you're sitting in the presidential office knowing that you have to answer to the people. The truth in the "analysts'" statements is that from a military perspective Ukraine can afford to fall back and let Russia exhaust itself faster over the greater distance. The truth in Zelensky's statement is that from a human perspective, Bakhmut is the best place to blunt the Russian advance before it overruns and destroys hundreds of thousands of additional homes.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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KirbyKhan posted:

Peace is good, war is bad

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Logically, then, Stalin was history's greatest monster for choosing to resist the Nazi invasion, and millions of Soviet deaths can be lain directly at his feet for his refusal to negotiate like a sensible person.

The Socialist Republic of Vietnam is a tragic monument to the bloodthirstiness of the North Vietnamese government, who were obligated to surrender immediately to American intervention but foolishly chose to sacrifice their own people in a pointless war.

I'm glad we all agree that a country defending itself against invasion is an unconscionable act under all circumstances.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Some people prefer the warm familiar boot over the cold and impersonal machinery of capital. The promise of authoritarianism isn't that life will be easier, it's that life will make sense.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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My well-trained and well-equipped army lives in Canada, you wouldn't know them

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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zone posted:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1633606182190424070
The caveman Milchakov weighs in again saying that war crimes are cool and good if they save the lives of murderers and occupiers.

Useful idiots: Russia is waging the most benevolent and civilized war in history, and is only liberating Russians who yearn to be free of the Ukrainian yoke
Russian nationalists: Actually no we're basically all war criminals and everyone in the occupied territory wants us gone

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Tarkus posted:

Sounds like no one is getting ammo. Good.

I'm told that negotiations make peace rather than weapons, so the fewer weapons make their way to the Russian front lines objectively the more peace we'll have.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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On the one hand, the whole point of wargames is to expose potential weaknesses and measure your ability to deal with unforeseen issues, so you want to model a certain amount of bullshit from your opfor; no one needs to analyze the best case scenario. There's a limited amount you can learn from outright impossible hypotheticals, though, so you still need to keep it somewhat plausible.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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zone posted:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1634573725193449472
Latest entry in department of strange Russian fires:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1634574134918230019
Cigarette mismanagement occurred in occupied Mariupol airport

It's hard to tell how many fires are sabotage as opposed to run of the mill industrial accidents, but TV offices are not normally known for spontaneous fires AFAIK

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Strategic Tea posted:

Unwrapping my shiny new howitzer only to reveal a manufacturer's label - 'warning - not for use in wars' :grin:

Gentlemen, you can't fight with these! This is the war materiel department!

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Tarquinn posted:

They're actually not. :confused:

Edit: You might be thinking of 'the' and 'that'.

Germans seem pretty happy to just use Das interchangeably where English speakers would say either "this" or "that", even though separate words for them do exist when they care to make the distinction.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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freelop posted:

Pooh will probably push some peace plan that lets Russia keep territory they stole, Zelensky will reject it and Pooh will decry how he tried to push for peace but the war mongering west are pushing too hard to continue the war.

Or it's a heads up that China is planning on retaking those areas they renamed in Russia recently

I think they're probably keeping their options open with carrots and sticks for both sides. It would be very convenient to China if the war ended and also a big feather for their cap if they got to play peacemaker, and the exact shape of the peace is probably a secondary consideration.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Tai posted:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1634987464267022336

Living rent free. As cringe as nafo is, it sure as poo poo gets under pro invasion peoples skin.

So if NAFO is hurting Ukraine are the pro-Russian shills happy about NAFO for doing God's work, then? :thunk:

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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if I sincerely believed that a country was held hostage by neo-Nazis with their hands on all the levers of power such that dismantling chunks of that country was the only way to rehabilitate it, I would probably argue that the neo-Nazis were doing more damage to the country's cause than a bunch of low effort trolls spamming doge memes

but that's just me

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Toxic Mental posted:

Isn't that the guy who was a failed sex tourist and so he stayed in the country to try and get his incel revenge on Ukranian women by chain smoking and heavily drinking and being really fat? lol

You forgot the part where he bravely decided to stay despite being on very real SBU and NATO kill lists.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Is anyone other than the Mail stating it was a crash? Other outlets are using more circumspect language and saying a Russian fighter "forced down" the drone, which could be read as a physical collision, but this is the first report confirming a collision.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Dandywalken posted:

200k vs 120k casualties doesnt sound as one-sided as people are acting it is.

Nobody said it's been one-sided the entire war. It was 1:1 for a good while because Russia got the jump on Ukraine

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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OctaMurk posted:

I think its the other way around.

In the first months of the war, the Russians got stuck in the mud, had miles-long traffic jams, entire battalions getting trapped and destroyed to the last man.

Now, the Ukrainians are being massively outshot in artillery without the opportunity to outmaneuver the Russians like they've had before, and Western artillery production hasnt increased enough to close the gap.

Not really, no. Russia hasn't been able to reestablish complete artillery dominance since HIMARS was deployed; they have a clear edge, but what you describe was still a fairly early phase of the invasion, between the retreat from Kyiv and the Kharkiv offensive.

Last fall there were estimates that both sides were probably somewhere around 100k casualties pretty close to each other. If that was reasonably accurate then
120k vs. 200k now would mean that it's literally been 5:1 since then.

Of course, all these estimates might as well be written on toilet paper; who knows if we'll ever have a clear and accurate picture of casualties on each side.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Jesus, that's some insane victim blaming game.

"What kind of barbaric civilization would let their women get shot on the battlefield by invaders? It's a good thing those culturally superior invaders are there to shoot them."

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Tai posted:

lol he'll 100% get arrested in most EU countries. Russia isn't going to nuke anyone in the EU or NATO/NATO friends.

Realistically anywhere that would arrest him would simply deny him entry if he tried to go, which he wouldn't. There's no scenario where someone sets up a state visit and then slaps the cuffs on.

Tai posted:

Rebuilding Donbas

lol. lmao

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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In exchange for arresting Putin, the ICC should also arrest both GWB and Obama just to balance things out. Can't get fairer than that.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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They warned us that if we didn't give Putin an off-ramp he would be forced to double down.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Power Khan posted:

There's the Superbonker 9000 though



Careful photographic analysis reveals that the "dogs" featured in this picture are likely to be nothing more than flat images on the hull featuring headshots of dogs superimposed over other figures and this vehicle is not in fact being crewed by small dogs. In this essay (1/91)..

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Chicken Butt posted:

What’s Meloni’s deal? US fascists loving love Putin, how did she come by her one good (anti-Putin) position?

I'm guessing there's an element of opportunism. She probably assesses that she's about as far right as the electorate will go and does not feel vulnerable to pro-Russian sentiment on either extreme, so she can score points with old school hawks and centrists without giving up ground on parts of her platform she cares about.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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TaurusTorus posted:

Also Russia should leave Ukraine.

Typical bloodthirsty GBS warmongering :lofty:

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Strategic Tea posted:

One sad lesson of this war is to never ever agree to nuclear disarmament under any circumstances.

My school had a politics day when I was like 17 and I remember being scoffed at by (IIRC) a speaker from the local Greens over the nuclear deterrent - 'do you really think anyone would ever try to invade us?'

I am told that this is Different and that obviously Russia would never try to invade any countries beyond Ukraine and thinking otherwise is being deliberately obtuse.

Mostly from the same people that said as of February last year obviously Russia would never try to invade Ukraine more broadly.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Neddy Seagoon posted:

Cope curtains really tie a trench together.

This one actually seems useful? Not going to disguise the fact that there's a trench or stop anything aimed at it, but if drones can't make out targets in the trench then dropping grenades blindly and hoping there's someone beneath them isn't going to do much.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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They say to keep your friends close and your enemies closer, so we're making sure NATO is as close as possible.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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GABA ghoul posted:

2029: America is officially abolished and all of the world rejoices

heh, looks like someone is huffing the AmeriKKKa propaganda pipe if you think they'll last that long :smug:

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Asterite34 posted:

Wasn't it in one of the previous threads we had someone post some highlights from the other side of the Great Firewall and it was just constant dunking on Russia, stuff like "if they summoned the Ghost of Zhukov to lead their army again, he'd see this and die again from embarrassment?"

The greatest shitposting country on earth posted:

-Ivan, you're mobilized
-but I don't have legs
-it's a partial mobilization

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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OctaMurk posted:

I think its good to post propaganda, its interesting and shows what they believe or are coping with. Russians With Attitude my favorite for this

They're not always wrong, either. The fog of war is dense and sometimes you need to look at what both sides are saying to get a clear picture of what's going on. It shouldn't be new or surprising to anyone that Russia continues to make incremental progress in Bakhmut.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Wow, whoever shot a rocket at this guy sucks real bad, I guess someone should try to do something about it. Thanks for the link.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Tai posted:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1648676387983695875

Russia needs to fire their entire propaganda team

So is the European economy cratering from inflation or not??? Make up your mind, people!

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Negostrike posted:

There's no "anti-americanism" in this. He just said the truth. NATO is just making this poo poo worse. The only way to end this war quickly is to have a negotiation and both Ukraine and Russia are gonna have to compromise and yes, Ukraine and sorry liberals like you will have to swallow their tears and concede at least Crimea. Cruel reality, isn't it.

Yeah, as much as one might hope for an end to imperialist aggression the sad fact remains that sometimes imperialism is gonna win. I don't think it's worth celebrating that even if it owns the libs, though.

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the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

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Negostrike posted:

Getting back to pre-war status quo is already a big compromise for them, if they want Donbas so much.

And it's one that they've repeatedly said they have no interest in making. Russia's current position is that surrendering the remainder of the annexed oblasts is the starting point for negotiation. Getting back to anything close to prewar status quo is going to take a certain amount of military persuasion.

I suspect the "best case" scenario at this point is a moderately successful Ukrainian offensive in the south followed by some territorial horse-trading once both sides are too exhausted to continue.

You could argue that trying to regain control of a few hundred km isn't worth the loss and devastation of additional fighting, but trading land for peace only works if you get a lasting peace out of it. This argument ultimately relies on the goodwill of Putin to not invade again, a position that historically has not worked out well for Ukraine.

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