(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Welcome to the current events thread for Russia's war with Ukraine. The focus here is on a practical discussion of news from the war with more nuance than Twitter permits. War is misery, and viewer discretion is advised. Beware of  content.code:1) Do not gratuitously share graphic violence or otherwise distressing imagery. If you have a reason to do so, do not embed it, and make sure to add the emoji and a content warning to each link.To clarify, a solid basis will need to at least make a case for one of newsworthiness, novelty, or educational value, from a current affairs perspective. Moreover, this rule does apply to any footage of PoWs or any other plausible war crimes, even when it's not evocative. 2) Do not use this thread for feuding with other goons. 3) Do not engage in Clancychat. We define it is any military particulars that need a lot of time or assumptions to be true. We have a fanfic thread going if you're into this, though. In general, don't be stupid. We're not interested in the Twitter meme of the week or someone's infatuation with Mortal Kombat. The thread doesn't offer anxiety counselling, either. code:Do not copy and paste walls of text longer than a few paragraphs, unless you wrote them – quote specific parts. If you're referencing a video, mention specific timestamps. Link to external content that you're discussing, if it's not mentioned earlier in the thread. If rules stop you from linking it, don't discuss it here at lengths, preferably at all. I recommend against making pure joke posts without workshopping them. For instance, don't rely on American TV references for your jokes, as I don't know any. code:DeepL Translator works better than Google Translate. We are running a donation drive for Ukraine, awarding the Ghost of Kyiv tag for participation.  We have a non-war thread with very chill rules. Thread history – the first thread, the second thread, and the third thread. Dubiously reliable Twitters – @CanadianUkrain1, @EuromaidanPR, @Flash_news_ua, @jmvasquez1974, @kamilkazani, @nexta_tv, @samramani2, @sumlenny, @TpyxaNews, @TrentTelenko code:Silver2195 posted:It will end by "Friday," i.e., within 18 months. Silver2195 posted:Yes. The war will end (or at least be "re-frozen") before November 10, 2023. Keisari posted:It is done. This is the beginning of the end of this imperial misadventure. code:Posting sanctions: PegLegActual (socials); Willo567, Grouchio, and Kraftwerk (anxiety) Somebody fucked around with this message at 05:37 on Jun 28, 2023 |
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Mar 31, 2023 18:07
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First 
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Mar 31, 2023 18:08
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cinci zoo sniper posted:First Something is a little goofy about the link from the old thread --- throws an error for me. (Maybe the action=stick in the URL?)
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Mar 31, 2023 18:11
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OddObserver posted:Something is a little goofy about the link from the old thread --- throws an error for me. (Maybe the action=stick in the URL?) Should link to showthread.php instead of postings.php, like this: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4028717
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Mar 31, 2023 18:14
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Welp, one thread done, onto the second
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Mar 31, 2023 18:14
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Первый этаж второй класс 
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Mar 31, 2023 18:16
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OddObserver posted:Something is a little goofy about the link from the old thread --- throws an error for me. (Maybe the action=stick in the URL?) ringu0 posted:Should link to showthread.php instead of postings.php, like this: My bad indeed, I've asked admins to edit the archived link. Tab confusion.  Fake edit: it's good now
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Mar 31, 2023 18:16
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AtomikKrab posted:Welp, one thread done, onto the second Actually I do believe this is the 3rd. Rules post is much more concise thanks cinci.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:21
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Does graphic violence just mean if you can see people being hurt/killed, or does it include "tank gets blown up (can't see anyone though)" or "aftermath of helicopter that's shot down"?
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Mar 31, 2023 18:21
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New thread! Here's hoping Russia goes home before we need another.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:24
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Lol at the posting sanctions section, that got a good chuckle out of me
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Mar 31, 2023 18:30
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Cicero posted:Does graphic violence just mean if you can see people being hurt/killed, or does it include "tank gets blown up (can't see anyone though)" or "aftermath of helicopter that's shot down"? My two cents; for the tank blowing up, there's a chance people are in it, and explosions can be triggering, so anything active like that where people might be getting hurt or killed should have warnings. Previously destroyed equipment should be fine as long as one has checked that there's no bodies anywhere in the clip.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:30
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damnit who let galeev into the tweep list i mean, granted, "dubious tweep" is an apt descriptor, but
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Mar 31, 2023 18:30
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So going back to a topic from the previous thread: "COPENHAGEN, March 24 (Reuters) - Air force commanders from Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark said on Friday they have signed a letter of intent to create a unified Nordic air defence aimed at countering the rising threat from Russia." How does the fact that Sweden will be the only one not currently in NATO affect this?
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Mar 31, 2023 18:32
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HonorableTB posted:Lol at the posting sanctions section, that got a good chuckle out of me I'd be anxious too if every ballistic nuke of every arsenal on earth was aimed at my balls every Tuesday
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Mar 31, 2023 18:33
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Cicero posted:Does graphic violence just mean if you can see people being hurt/killed, or does it include "tank gets blown up (can't see anyone though)" or "aftermath of helicopter that's shot down"? This would be my interpretation of “graphic for a war thread”, meaning any obvious death, including your tank example, as well as directly visible humans getting clearly hurt. Clearly is a “zoomed in” vs “zoomed out” difference, but I do explicitly reserve the executive privilege to simply find weird gotchas or whatever as off limits. Aftermath scenes fall under “distressing” if there are corpses or like lots of gore in plain sight. Also, if it's you know, just like a massive fire or tons of screaming, or other conventionally unsettling stuff. In the context of the site-wide rules, there have been further conversations and we have more clarity now. You should feel safe about not blindly copping a haymaker for as long as your post looks like a thoughtful effort to contribute to the subject of the thread, rather than, e.g., some bloodthirsty objectification. I'll link to this post in the OP.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:33
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Jumping on the "post things that got a bit lost at the end of the last thread" bandwagon:quote:-At the close of this month (March), 4,000+ soldiers done with training in Germany, and 1x M2 Bradley Brigade and 1x Stryker brigade will be done with combined arms training and be returned to Ukraine. Just in time for a summer offensive. These things are going to go through the Russian lines like a hot knife through butter that's been rotting in a warehouse for 30 years.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:38
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Jesus christ it's been over a year and this is the third loving thread! This sucks Remember when we were innocently trying to read the osint data and piles of bad analysts trying to understand if it's a big preparation for a long bloody war or if it's just putin being a gopnik doing the coward aggro pretend thing Come on Ukraine do the counteroffensive so we don't need a fourth
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Mar 31, 2023 18:45
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We at day 3 yet?
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Mar 31, 2023 18:47
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Moon Slayer posted:Jumping on the "post things that got a bit lost at the end of the last thread" bandwagon: The results of that will quickly show if Ukraine has a realistic chance in 2023 of making large gains like during the Kharkiv offensive or only slow slugging offensives like in Kherson.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:50
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Cocaine Bear posted:We at day 3 yet? We're at day 400 of the three day war.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:51
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I don't mean to be a downer, but I think even a successful offensive doesn't end this war. I think this goes into 2024 at least. I hesitate to guess much beyond 12 months, but I don't see a clear path to destroying enough Russian combat power to liberate the Donbass this year. Maybe I'm wrong! I hope I am. For context, while it's easy to mock Russia for deploying T-52s--and believe me, I contribute to that mockery--there are very real things they could do--or be doing--to regenerate combat power. They're trying to run their industry on a war-time footing, but we don't (yet) see North Korea-levels of industrial mobilization. Could Russia do so? Maybe - as an authoritarian regime, Russia is quite effective, and they have not yet fully militarized.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:52
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The whole point of sanctions, though, is to make it difficult to impossible for them to replace a lot of stuff even if they do "fully militarize" their industry. You can convert all the Aeroflot factories to make kalibr missiles you want, it's not going to do any good when you can't get a single semiconductor.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:55
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:damnit who let galeev into the tweep list I'm taking terminology suggestions for the shitlist if you have any. Unless you're a Galeev stan  Orthanc6 posted:Actually I do believe this is the 3rd. Almost literally 5 times shorter, from 2.2k words to 560 (+-, didn't care to tear out bbcode before word counter). Tevery Best posted:New thread! Here's hoping Russia goes home before we need another. Afraid it's not looking that conclusive for our toxxers yet. Moon Slayer posted:Jumping on the "post things that got a bit lost at the end of the last thread" bandwagon: Finger's crossed the counteroffensive is as smooth as you say, but cope triangles or not, Russia has had a lot of time to prepare fortifications in the more important areas of it. Definitely a summer to watch though. Somaen posted:Jesus christ it's been over a year and this is the third loving thread! It really was a simpler time when the thread was laughing about bad comedian #374 yelling with a fake leg in hand.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:55
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So routine spring conscription is happening in Russia now: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-routine-spring-conscription-tass-agency-2023-03-30/ So as I understand it these conscripts will need training, can't legally be sent into combat (ex Bakhmut), but can be pressured into joining as contract soldiers? Have conscripts been deployed in annexed regions already (ex: performing security or building fortifications)? My feeling is that the war will probably last for a few more years, so good luck toxxers.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:57
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Moon Slayer posted:The whole point of sanctions, though, is to make it difficult to impossible for them to replace a lot of stuff even if they do "fully militarize" their industry. You can convert all the Aeroflot factories to make kalibr missiles you want, it's not going to do any good when you can't get a single semiconductor. I think the sanctions enforcement at the moment is really not up to scrap for stopping Russia from getting, e.g., the semiconductors. Bloomberg did run a few nice pieces on this recently. WarpedLichen posted:So routine spring conscription is happening in Russia now: Yes on everything except the latter-ish, in that they've been “deployed” to Crimea as part of daily business of the occupation government there, including running the local conscription there, but if we narrow this to the "special military operation territory" then no, not yet, systemically. There've been one-off scenarios, but the fedelra government did actually get quite bothered to prosecute them correctly (eventually).
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Mar 31, 2023 19:04
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A good vid covering two kidnapped Ukrainian girls tracked down by a Ukrainian journalist and rescued, english subtitles, nothing violent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPyWA9ZK4Qs&t=1170s Stealing children. 
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Mar 31, 2023 19:56
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Just Another Lurker posted:A good vid covering two kidnapped Ukrainian girls tracked down by a Ukrainian journalist and rescued, english subtitles, nothing violent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPyWA9ZK4Qs&t=1170s About lost my mind the other day hearing public radio describe it as "deportation of children." The word is KIDNAPPING.
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Mar 31, 2023 19:58
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DTurtle posted:It’s interesting to see all this stuff coming together right now. Just last week 18 German Leopard 2 tanks and 40 Marder IFVs were handed over (so a mechanized battalion). It really seems like any time now a Ukrainian offensive using massed Western equipment can be attempted. As a counterpoint these are probably newer recruits using battle systems that haven’t been used by Ukraine before and may not be available in great enough numbers to make a noticeable difference, so the ability of Russia to withstand an offensive is likely to be the real deciding factor.
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Mar 31, 2023 19:59
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1641829147050758144?cxt=HHwWgMC-vaK6-cgtAAAA Ukrainian air force confirms use of JDAMs. So I think this started because Russian air force has been conducting more attacks using glide bombs as well. I wonder if this is both sides figuring out ways to exploit ground based air defense or if I'm reading too much into it.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:03
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Ynglaur posted:I don't mean to be a downer, but I think even a successful offensive doesn't end this war. I think this goes into 2024 at least. I hesitate to guess much beyond 12 months, but I don't see a clear path to destroying enough Russian combat power to liberate the Donbass this year. Maybe I'm wrong! I hope I am. Well you have Ukrainians getting modern equipment at the moment, which we have seen what this equipment does against what Russia is fielding in the first Iraq War. Granted anti-tank weaponry is more advanced than it was in 1991 but it is unknown really how much Russia has available at this point. The guns on a Leo2 should be able to outrange a T55 and even a Bradley or Striker should be able to engage at a farther effective range than most of what Russian is fielding with better optics and range finding accuracy. This is the main Russian problem is they have been losing resources that are not able to be replaced since the conflict started. It's easy to toss 100 cruise missiles a day into the country when you have a couple thousand. When you get down to only having a couple dozen you lose a lot of your capability. Same with tanks when you have hundreds it is easy to toss them out. They have lost enough of their best stuff that they are now looking at mothballed obsolete stuff to try and shore up the holes that are created moving what they have to replace what they lost. The biggest issue Russia has is they have been utterly reliant upon outside sources for their equipment for quite some time. They do not have domestic sources for much of what they would require to go on a proper war footing and mobilization. They are stuck in a situation where their options are to try and run out the clock to see if NATO decides to give up on Ukraine which I don't see happening any time soon or Daddy China decides to take pity on them and actively aides them. I don't see China provoking the ire of the West anymore than they already have by doing so. They are going to toe the line but they have every reason in the world to let Russia collapse so they can try to make it a full puppet. I don't see Russia leaving by choice at this point. I do think there is a scenario where they have a big enough loss that they are forced to abandon large parts of the country, but they aren't going to make it easy.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:14
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Small White Dragon posted:So going back to a topic from the previous thread: Swede here: it has zero effect. All countries involved have a lot of cooperation already and there are specific Nordic frameworks for mutual defense (such as Nordefco) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Defence_Cooperation Also Sweden is as close to a Nato member as you can be without being an official member.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:28
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Tank on tank is largely irrelevant. If I had to bet they're gonna expend the Leos etc the way both sides' tanks are expended in this war, ie being blown up by ATGMs and mines etc / stuck in terrain and blown up by a drone drop, they're going to best case scenario regain some degree of territory but it won't be decisive, and then they'll have to look long and hard at their economic malaise and remaining willing manpower, downgrade their expectations regarding their ability to regain the lost territory accordingly, and negotiate the best security guarantee they can secure in exchange for de facto acceptance of the de facto line of control.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:28
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Small White Dragon posted:So going back to a topic from the previous thread: According to the Finnish Broadcasting Company (links to a news article in Finnish, sorry), quoting an air force commander, the "foreign press" has gone a bit over-board with what they actually agreed to. Following translation is by the undersigned and flaws attributable to me alone, Juha Pekka Keränen posted:The goal is to plan how the four countries could utilize their air forces effectively together in all situations. There is no necessity for an organizational change where all the air forces [of the respective countries] are unified under a single command. In practice, Finland and Sweden have coördinated with our respective defense plans to some degree for a good while now, and hopefully our best and brightest boys and girls will remember that when negotiating with NATO about our local needs and particulars. Ultimately Finland's official stance is that we want our "cousin" Sweden in the military alliance too, and presumably that is also in NATO's interests as well since Sweden fills a gap in the defense of the Baltic sea region.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:32
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El Jeffe posted:About lost my mind the other day hearing public radio describe it as "deportation of children." The word is KIDNAPPING. State-sanctioned kidnapping for the purposes of genocide. A crime so bad I would not have thought of it if I was writing a cartoonishly-evil character. Russia shouldn't be allowed to participate in anything, at all, until every child is returned home. Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Mar 31, 2023 |
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Mar 31, 2023 20:43
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https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1641852678106906630
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Mar 31, 2023 20:53
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Moon Slayer posted:The whole point of sanctions, though, is to make it difficult to impossible for them to replace a lot of stuff even if they do "fully militarize" their industry. You can convert all the Aeroflot factories to make kalibr missiles you want, it's not going to do any good when you can't get a single semiconductor. Oh, absolutely! Sanctions should help prevent that very thing. That said, over time Russia may be able to improve its own semiconductors enough for certain military equipment, or they may be able to procure just enough from gray market or sanctions-dodging entities, or any number of things. Sanctions enforcement is a non-trivial problem, especially when countries such as China--who doesn't want a weak Russia, but does want a distracted West--share a massive land border with Russia.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:54
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Ynglaur posted:That said, over time Russia may be able to improve
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Mar 31, 2023 21:04
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Pablo Bluth posted:Wouldn't that requiring fixing all the corruption and other endemic mismanagement that defines the way Putin runs Russia? They don't need to reinvent their statehood to make sure some factories work well. Corruption endemic in that the state has no regard for the common man, rather than that auditors or accountants in Russia are somehow more blind than those elsewhere. Now, inventing Russian ASML on an empty spot is going to be a rather tall order, but there are practical gains that can and are made, e.g., Russia's efforts to withstand the sanctions.
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Mar 31, 2023 21:18
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Realistically just keeping what semiconductor equipment is already working supplied and maintained is going to be tricky once cut off from international suppliers (which are mostly in the US, EU and Japan). Combined with the timescale for developing and then ramping new capacity (years in ideal scenarios), essentially all semiconductors they can't already make are going to have been smuggled in from other countries.
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Mar 31, 2023 21:27
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