(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Jesus christ it's been over a year and this is the third loving thread! This sucks Remember when we were innocently trying to read the osint data and piles of bad analysts trying to understand if it's a big preparation for a long bloody war or if it's just putin being a gopnik doing the coward aggro pretend thing Come on Ukraine do the counteroffensive so we don't need a fourth
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Mar 31, 2023 18:45
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This is another version of the same "African countries are going to adopt the African dinar and overthrow western imperialism", "russian and iran are going to stop using the dollar thus destroying America forever", "Russia and China are going to become allies destroying NATO finally", etc. It's been in the russian political folklore for decades and is wishful thinking with no understanding of economics
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Apr 1, 2023 11:23
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Finland has some nerve to expand NATO all the way to Petersburg. The securities have never been as concerned as this. Time to gently caress up Kazakhstan for this shameless display of backyard meddling
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Apr 4, 2023 15:22
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Folks "Ukrainians at the isthmus of crimea" is a scenario where Ukraine broke the front and took back most of the south with a significant destruction of russian defenses. The political and military implications of that are broad, it's questionable if any mobiks would be willing to stay in Crimea at that point to get hosed up further with no supplies and die instead of getting the gently caress out while the bridge is still there
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Apr 6, 2023 09:16
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Nix Panicus posted:Whatever you need to tell yourself. But the fact remains the Russians took Crimea in a week with no resistance and held it for nine years with no problems. Plus the older Crimeans will remember the time Ukraine couped their autonomous government and deposed their president and everyone will remember that Ukraine took its frustrations out on the civilian populace through withholding water. In general they appear to prefer Russian rule. Crimea isnt going to greet the invading Ukrainians as liberators, should they even get that far. Some hard truths that are consistently opposite to reality getting dropped by the "russia is never going to invade anybody also america did 9/11" guy (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 7, 2023 07:34
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Do journalists get in trouble for looking at supposedly leaked secret documentsCharliegrs posted:Was Medvedev such a whackjob when he was the "president" of Russia? Like I don't remember him saying anything particularly controversial at the time but maybe he did and it just flew under the radar. Did he go down the same pandemic isolation rabbit hole that Putin did and it broke his brain? The worst thing he did was the Georgian war which was pretty bad, but he was coherent and fairly charismatic as a president, modern and willing to discuss ideas with the opposition, people were putting in a lot of hope that he would lead the country away from the growing repressiveness of Putin to a more democratic state after decent economic growth and stability were achieved. He did some independent actions trying to align with the West like not going against the Libya intervention and that turned him against the security wing and lead him to being replaced and then sidelined. He really went off the deep end in the last couple of years apparently not finding a place for himself without any competence to be useful for the regime
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Apr 8, 2023 21:56
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:You would think they learned their lesson after Snowdon but no. The number of special forces in Ukraine and the number of tanks donated need a "0" added at the end but the number of US personnel (and contractors and temps and interns) with access to "sorta-secret" documents needs at least a "0" less at the end. Given the content of the stuff leaked this also does not seem the lowest/lower level of clearance to me, at least not what I would put in those levels. This is what makes it suspicious to me, if it's a fairly accurate summary with secret information for high brass with some pessimistic evaluations and info on snooping on allies, why does some low level guy have it? We'll probably not find out but it's still possible this is a controlled leak for some expectation management and public disinfo.
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Apr 13, 2023 09:18
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Popete posted:A Korean airliner was shot down by a Soviet fighter during the height of the Cold War and it didn't result in nuclear war. There has been a number of incidents Hainan Island Incident over the years and it's never resulted in much of anything. South Korea is not a NATO member Not saying this would've triggered it if they were, but there's a reason South Korea couldn't start nuclear war even if they wanted to A better example I guess is mh17
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Apr 13, 2023 20:08
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What else is it going to take to designate them a terrorist org and bomb their poo poo worldwide? Osechkin and gulagu.net still doing fantastic work btw
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Apr 17, 2023 14:08
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:. mediazona produces some good work, but is probably the most biased of the russian publications. i should read doxa for extremely zoomer content, but they definitely have no english coverage, and again, i am lazy ...biased towards what? Not imprisoning people? To contribute, the insider does great osint and publishes opinion pieces and analysis by russian experts and dissidents in both russian and english Somaen fucked around with this message at 12:06 on Apr 18, 2023 |
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Apr 18, 2023 12:04
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:bias can fall on either side; that's a normal thing in media analysis. it's the same thing you'd use to describe fox news or mother jones in relation to, say reuters What sides are there? What's the bias to? Comparing mediazona, a small outlet focused on humans rights, to fox news, a major news network, is not correct
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Apr 18, 2023 18:42
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I'm not asking for US based generalities, I'm asking about that particular outlet in the context of russian politics. It's not a general news site like mother jones or fox, it's a media outlet that covers russian prisoners rights and the stuff related to it (Wagner prisoners, political cases, people that are being persecuted by the state). I don't see a difference in tone compared to holod, so I'm interested in what Qtotonibudinibudet is seeing that I'm not, not to say they aren't clearly liberal and against the war and political repressions
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Apr 18, 2023 20:48
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They're losing their worst, while we're losing our best. Forum war is hell...
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Apr 21, 2023 06:50
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The joke about NATO not having showed up was no joke
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Apr 22, 2023 12:33
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Kikas posted:
Ukraine has been bombing Belgorod and sending drones deep into Russia. Just because there has been nothing spectacular yet doesn't mean that something is off limits or that there's one weird trick to unlock the russians super sayian mode by crossing some nebulous red line
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Apr 24, 2023 18:12
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fatherboxx posted:The figure for civilian casualties on Russian soil from Ukrainian strikes so far that I've seen recently is about 30 people. With that Russian fighter plane that rammed an apartment building in Yeisk on its own resulting in 16 dead civilians even Russian media is unable to whip up a rally for defense argument - the broad terror attack to win with the Ukrainian population at home would change that. But who is suggesting terror attacks on civilians? What has been happening is airfield and fuel base bombings, I don't understand why is the article being interpreted as Biden talking Ukraine out of bombing tourists on the red square, instead of talking them out of trying to bomb more military hard to reach stuff Mr. Apollo posted:I've seen a few articles, that are speculating that a counteroffensive may have begun. The biggest indicator they all point to is the sudden silence on social media especially on the southern front. Counteroffensive as in probing, no mechanised movement until the mud dries probably?
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Apr 24, 2023 18:36
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Young Freud posted:We know that the Ukrainians have used the Rasputina to keep the Russians on vulnerable roads, Please just say mud season There's no reason to use the local words for the same concepts that exist in English as if they're mysterious oriental phenomena (same for dezinformaciya, maskirovka, blat, pizdesh, naebalovo)
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Apr 25, 2023 06:04
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:someone's gonna be real mad if they ever start reading contemporary informal russian and seeing how many english loanwords are in use for things that could reasonably use a word of russian origin what makes you think i'm not mad all the time
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Apr 25, 2023 19:14
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Loanwords are fine when your phone recognizes them, but if it's replacing rasputitsa to Rasputina then it's trying to tell you something Did all you people miss the post had "rasputina" in it
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Apr 25, 2023 21:46
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spankmeister posted:просто кринж бро погодите погодите, я пропустил это *кхе кхе* включи свой монитор
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Apr 25, 2023 21:53
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Just Another Lurker posted:Thought that was just a chemical plant with a pile of decommissioned SS-24 missiles and tons of solid rocket fuel? That's probably the way it is publicized to play it down, similarly to how some places before earlier in the war were "fireworks storages". Good stuff getting hit is demoralising and there's no upside to admitting if a military facility got hit. Unfortunately with mass rocket attacks and storages saturated with new, good equipment being prepared for an attack, something is likely to get hit
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May 1, 2023 18:37
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fatherboxx posted:Arestovich is a known (entertaining) bullshit artist and was one even when he was an official and the account you are quoting is usually even worse He's a hunk and he can psyops and esoteric-NLP-bullshit me all night any night (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 2, 2023 21:58
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Willo567 posted:How does any of this help Ukraine? It's just going to make Russia take it out on innocent Ukranians more, not to mention make allies more hesitant to give fighter jets and long range missiles Time for Putin to awaken his final form. The red square... has been crossed fatherboxx posted:Umm holy poo poo This is loving insane lmao
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May 3, 2023 13:33
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Ukraine has everything to gain from such a spectacular own of the bunker gnome's headquarters Russia has nothing to gain by being embarrassed like this
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May 3, 2023 13:40
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Keisari posted:I'm finding the theory that they once again bombed themselves most convincing. Russia has a long tradition of bombing themselves to produce a pretext for something, and even in this war it is them who have pulled of one crazy stunt after another. What is the pretext for that couldn't be achieved another way? Mobilisations, bombing of Kiev, failed offensives are all achievable with some correct framing on television, there are no democratic institutions to put a break on anything If it was drumming up support for the war, something along the lines of "Ukrainians are bombing orphanages and then crucifying the survivors" would have more effect than "help we are totally hosed and helpless" Not saying it's not but false flag making GBS threads your pants is something new
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May 4, 2023 09:34
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Paladinus posted:Case in point. It was all literally just trolling by Russian white nationalists on twitch. Yeah saw this and doesn't look good. Dude, you get invited to PACE and other institutions, vet the poo poo you read out loud
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May 4, 2023 12:26
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You probably want to edit it out before someone obsessively following the war thread complains that they had to see some images of the extremely brutal war, instead of instances of the libs getting owned On topic, that's truly remarkable, Wagner making a retreat soon? quote:He is mad. Prizohin has bitched about ammo shortage before however there seems to be a shortage of ammo across the Russian army if telegram posts are to be believed. So he thinks he is getting blue balled by the Russian MoD where there is a strong possibility that there isn't enough ammo to go around or at least get to where it is needed. He was complaining about ammo shortages at the start of the year angrily ( his troops were making videos calling Gerasimov fa*got), then toned it down, now this. He seems like he has nothing to lose anymore, he's done , either the Ukrainians or the russian army get him Somaen fucked around with this message at 06:22 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 05:33
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Yeah agreed it seems like another internal play to make sure his troops are prioritised over the Russian army proper again. They've been doing that for half a year and it didn't work, this is desperation
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May 5, 2023 10:22
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Why don't they call each other instead of making tiktok videos This future sucks
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May 7, 2023 11:42
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Can't imagine Gerasimov and Shoigu are happy being called names and their authority and competence being questioned by the other Putin friend just for the morale of his troops. Mobiks also watch those extremely public videos
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May 7, 2023 12:27
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Sekenr posted:I am surprised Kazakhstan and Armenia even showed up. Here is a video of them walking to Alexandrovskiy garden. Luka is missing, not surprising he has knee problems. Also I am not seeng Pashinyan of Armenia and Tokayev of Kazakhstan looks like he wants to be out of the frame as much as possible. Putin made them attend the parade so that the Ukrainians don't bomb the red square and accidentally get the wrong president lol
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May 9, 2023 10:58
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Djarum posted:https://therecord.media/nato-ccdcoe-ukraine-iceland-ireland-japan Last year Hungary blocked Ukraine from joining using the excise that the Hungarian language is oppressed in Ukraine and then Orban went to Moscow and had that champagne photoshoot with Putin. This was either Feb or Jan 2022 I want to know what the hell kind of wrestling and dealmaking is going on besides the scenes
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May 22, 2023 09:29
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Oh poo poo we were warned that this was going to happen, the crazed Ukrs are invading Russia, which is Putin's red line and now nuclear was is about to begin. Farewell everyone 
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May 22, 2023 10:40
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It's a tongue in cheek way to present a military op with the same level of bullshit that russia was doing while creating the abominations of DNR/LNR and the other failed bandit republics
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May 22, 2023 16:25
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adebisi lives posted:While I wouldn't call Ukraine a fascist state, I wish they'd stop giving heavy weaponry to nazis They got that at the local military surplus store though? Also what about the rusych battalion
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May 23, 2023 20:19
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Nazi Jew Zelensky want to kill all the Jew -- very nice! (Borat) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 23, 2023 20:26
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It seems a bit more serious than a border incursion now, it's a city of 40k people
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Jun 3, 2023 12:53
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32 died, about a hundred have poisoning https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-65818840 I hope the contrnastoop goes well and the KGB regime is broken, there's pretty much no other way Russia can become a normal country(ies) where human life matters or there's a vision of the future instead of reliving pobeda and gagarin all the time
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Jun 10, 2023 09:04
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MikeC posted:Lol, I am glad I live rent free in your head. Going back to the start of the war, I haven't made a ton of predictions, but most them have been accurate. This is a pretty safe one too and in line with what guys like Kofman have been saying. Weren't you pushing mearsheimer and RUSSIA HAS SECURITY CONCERNS I went to double-check if you are that guy and yes you are, and you should reread your posts too for your wildly inaccurate predictions and understanding of the situation, your memory is failing you "Look pal, I might've said that the west is not going to support Ukraine because they'll freeze to death in the winter without russian gas so Ukraine needs to negotiate a deal with Russia... But I also said that counter attacking for Ukraine is going to be hard, so I got something right" Somaen fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Jun 10, 2023 |
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Jun 10, 2023 19:11
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 09:26 |
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Just a sample of the accurate predictions and extremely good grasp of the situationMikeC posted:Unless the Ukrainians end the war before November, this behaviour will probably continue as Putin will play the energy card to max and the EU will have to make decisions as to whether it will allow its citizens to suffer rolling blackouts and possibly freezing this winter vs coming to some sort of understanding with Putin to get the LNG following again. France earlier hit electricity prices of over 1000 Euros per megawatt hour from 70 Euros a year ago. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/german-power-rises-to-record-800-euros-in-latest-inflation-boost German companies are already halting production because electricity costs are too high https://www.ft.com/content/d0d46712-6234-4d24-bbed-924a00dd0ca9. Europe will likely have to collectively face a choice - continued support for Ukraine or a major economic downturn due to inflation and an energy crisis that may bring economic production to its knees. Edit: I don't think being wrong is bad, none of us can predict the future, but it's hilarious that someone calling themselves a Realist is just consistently wrong on predicting reality Somaen fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Jun 10, 2023 |
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Jun 10, 2023 20:29
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