(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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saratoga posted:The way they're mixing in more and more barely trained or equipped troops along not just quiet areas but really active areas of the front makes me wonder how well the army as a whole will be able to function under attack. Seems like a lot of those guys are going to melt away when a couple tanks roll towards their trench, or if they don't, they're not going to have the equipment to do much about it anyway. That is going to put even more strain on the limited number of professional troops still available to contain and counterattack. Actually, if people don't mind explaining to muggins here : As someone who's been broadly following the conflict but hasn't been checking day-by-day for a couple of months, how's that counter-offensive looking in general? I know Bakhmut has been hell, but I don't have an appreciation of if that's localized or if it's affected Ukrainian reserves. The general flow of "let Russia exhaust themselves, then giant offensive" seems to be working but I don't know about its long-term viability.
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2023 19:21 |
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# ¿ May 17, 2024 17:04 |
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OAquinas posted:It's not a dramatic Kharkiv Mk II--so far. They've ratcheted up the tempo of their deep attacks with HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles, and have been chewing the hell out of rus logistics. No major troop incursions yet; this may change soon since Zelenskyy has officially said "it's on" a day or two back. Safe to say they're weighing options and seeing where the soft/vulnerable spots are. It's also possible they're giving russia time to redeploy units to Belgorod and other russian territories to deal with the "independent people's liberation front" groups--the fewer men and materiel in theatre the better. Is there some vague idea of how they're doing in terms of manpower, morale, ammunition/logistics, etc.? I know that they're under strong incentives to pull an Alex Jones, i.e. they're the best and the strongest and will never give up but only if you keep funding me please give me monies. But do we have some vague idea of what's going on beneath that?
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2023 19:51 |
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beer_war posted:Mike Kofman talks about the counteroffensive in the latest War on the Rocks Podcast: https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/ukraines-offensive-and-its-meaning-for-the-war/ O a nice big audio-summary seems like just the thing to catch me up on it. And bonus, no one has to scroll by someone explaining things in the middle of a news thread. Thanks a mill.
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2023 20:06 |
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“2nd best army in Ukraine” is a pretty great low key burn.
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# ¿ Jun 3, 2023 18:11 |
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I’m assuming every military is paying attention and keeping copious notes. The US was intensely watching Donbas in 14, so no way they aren’t keeping track of how their fancy toys are working in practice.
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# ¿ Jun 4, 2023 02:31 |
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I mean they don’t call it the Normal Hornet.
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# ¿ Jun 6, 2023 02:23 |
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MikeC posted:1) Lack of panicked Russian posting on telegram that are located deeper and deeper behind the front lines on an hourly basis like what happened in Kharkiv shortly after that op kicked off. That's not evidence. That's you just saying poo poo.
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# ¿ Jun 10, 2023 17:32 |
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Chalks posted:The southern axis is very well fortified and the Russians have had a long time to plan the defence of this obvious weak point. The Kharkiv counter offensive was remarkable, made possible by a complete failure of Russian planning catching them by surprise. That is not the case here. Sure, that's a short but fair summary of some of the difficulties the counter-offensive is and will be facing. It also has gently caress all support for MikeC's empty speculation because he just authoritatively said some poo poo like your drunk uncle, which is what he always does.
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# ¿ Jun 10, 2023 18:40 |
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MikeC posted:I agree and have said as much in the past (no one has classified knowledge here) but the lack of Russian whinge on telegram is pretty strong circumstantial evidence unless the Russians have fixed their issues on this file. This is called a spurious correlation. And your sample size is 1. Two things happened at the same time, and now you're arguing that because 1 isn't happening the other can't be. That's just not how evidence works. Saying "X indicates Y" does not mean it does, and even if it did your premises don't follow each other.
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# ¿ Jun 10, 2023 20:19 |
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alex314 posted:AT-16 Scallion has a range of 10-12 km. Manpads top out at 7km. Also getting a lock that far away for IR missile would be unlikely. I'm sorry but... like a green onion? I googled it quick and that doesn't seem to be a typo. I'm just kind of surprised by that name. If they make a smaller one, would it be called the CHIVE?
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# ¿ Jun 12, 2023 17:45 |
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Learn something every day. Cool. Thanks, folks.
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# ¿ Jun 12, 2023 18:04 |
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Nenonen posted:USA is secretly panslavic And the UK and Australia and France and Liberia and Cuba and Paraguay and Luxembourg and Cambodia and Panama and Norway and the Dominican Republic and… Red, white and blue is a very popular color scheme.
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# ¿ Jun 20, 2023 17:50 |
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Having a giant internal fight in between different halves of your armed forces in the opening stages of an active counter-offensive seems… less than ideal.
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# ¿ Jun 23, 2023 21:30 |
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Just apropos of nothing : when was the last time we had proof of life on Putin? I.e. him doing a thing we can be sure happened, not a released statement or a generic video or whatever.
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# ¿ Jun 24, 2023 03:29 |
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Shogeton posted:Have we considered the possibility that Lukashenko is a master-statesman filled with Solomonic wisdom? I bet he’d cut a baby in half given a chance. So I guess kinda?
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# ¿ Jun 24, 2023 19:05 |
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So just to confirm, we still haven’t actually seen Putin? Does anybody else feel like that’s weird?
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# ¿ Jun 24, 2023 21:38 |
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Fidelitious posted:At the beginning sure, but mercenaries that change sides after having already signed would tend to not get a lot of future business. Could I introduce you to my friend, Mr. 30 Years War? I think he has some important information for you.
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# ¿ Jun 27, 2023 14:30 |
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alex314 posted:That's why you pay your mercs on time, or else they start to "live off land"... It was (nominally) a religious civil war. Dudes were switching all day e'rry day with their immortal souls. But, as stated, not relevant since Wagner aren't actually mercenaries.
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# ¿ Jun 27, 2023 14:49 |
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Boris Galerkin posted:Eh it’s not any worse than Were you just surprised that there had been another Queen Elizabeth before Elizabath II.
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# ¿ Jun 28, 2023 23:28 |
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Elyv posted:if someone were to make a myanmar/SEA thread I would love to lurk it as well because I know almost nothing about that conflict and don't know where to easily find more other than the occasional news story Extreme same.
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# ¿ Jul 1, 2023 04:22 |
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Telsa Cola posted:Archaeological surveyor. It’s off-topic, but I would love to read as many words as you care to write about your job.
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# ¿ Jul 8, 2023 19:28 |
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Saladman posted:Which of those sides is clearly on the verge of collapse though? Economically Turkey is in a much, much worse state than Russia. The Turkish economy is an absolute dumpster fire, with Erdogan squeezing on lighter fluid, and they ran out of net foreign reserves recently. The Turkish lira is guaranteed to lose an additional 50-80% in the next two years, and it's already lost 80% in the past three years. If they had pegged their currency to the Euro before, they would be staring at a complete currency collapse like Lebanon did in 2019 because they maintained their USD peg way too long. Instead a slide of 95% over five years is probably just not-catastrophic-enough to result in a de facto euro-ization/dollarization of the economy. Already property in Turkey - even sold between Turkish residents - is *publicly* priced and sold in foreign currencies, and it has been for some time. (At least since 2021, but possibly way before this, I don't know.) The two sides are Russia compared to NATO, I believe. And I think they don’t mean specifically economics. They’re saying that Russia’s increased downward trend is making Turkey’s straddling more complicated, and this would be them kind of searching for new footing/balance to continue the metaphor. If you’re balancing on top of two piles, and one starts collapsing, you have to be ready to move your weight. Hopefully I’m not putting too many words in another poster’s mouth.
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# ¿ Jul 8, 2023 23:07 |
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Telsa Cola posted:I used a "hand held" one last year for several projects and the are indeed exhausting as gently caress to use. It's a neat technology but there are a lot of caveats to using GPR effectively, primarily to the condition/type of ground you are using it on. Definitely a good tool to consider though. Exhausting as in “tedious and methodical”, “stressful”, “requiring great mental strain”, “physically taxing” or…? Like would you describe it as “exhausting” in general, even if it wasn’t UXO and just a bunch of potsherds? GPR is one of those things I always wanted to gently caress around with. I’m like a three year old with bulldozers.
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# ¿ Jul 10, 2023 02:52 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I don't think you can compare the first and only use of nuclear weapons in human history with conventional terror bombing campaigns. The latter of which has never worked to force a surrender and usually does the opposite. Well neither has the former. This is one of those topics where if you think you have something cogent to say you either 1) are a very qualified specialist or 2)wrong and you should not say anything. Not picking on you, Cpt_Obvious, you were just the closest person to quote : if you (general "you" ; "one") are trying to make a strong causative claim about the effects of the nuclear bombs on WWII, you are probably already wrong and should stop talking.
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# ¿ Jul 10, 2023 18:14 |
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Vaginaface posted:The Russian food I wish was more common in the states is "chips fish". It's like fish jerky and it's good as hell. Fish must be feminine or UnAmerican or something I don't know. I’d point to most of the US being terminally landlocked.
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# ¿ Jul 11, 2023 02:18 |
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MikeC posted:Blowing up the school is unlawful though, hence it is murder. Using weapons to fight a war isn't unlawful though. The standard you set for yourself was war crimes. The UN does allow even direct strikes against civilians as long it is not excessive in relation to the concrete and direct overall military advantage anticipated. Pretending you only understand the most robotic and legalistic definition of a word is not a good look. VitalSigns clearly means murder in the very common sense of "to cause the death of a person in an amoral manner". If I told you my mom got stabbed to death on a cruise ship you wouldn't reference naval maps to see whether or not she was in international waters at the time. And if it was instead an accident it'd still be perfectly normal to say the captain "murdered" her through negligence. I don't particularly agree with VitalSigns*, but that whole schtick is absolutely bullshit rhetoric and brings everything down. *although I don't disagree over-much either (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ¿ Jul 11, 2023 06:14 |
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Yo that was a hell of a post, hoss. Thanks.
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# ¿ Jul 12, 2023 04:09 |
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Nenonen posted:It would be funny if Russia ran out of mines that were stored adequately and only the preliminary line was fully mined, which lead into them rushing reserves to fill the holes in the first line. But my honest take is that it's a gamble to make that very first line the main defence line because there is time to do so and because giving ground is politically unviable even when it's militarily recommendable. In any case, it's very polite to bring the attritional fight closer to Ukraine's starting positions. Comedy prediction : they rushed the soldiers’ train too much and they literally can’t defend in depth. No one on the ground really knows how.
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# ¿ Jul 12, 2023 22:08 |
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Moon Slayer posted:Put this post up on the big board of incredibly wrong takes along with Grover's Iraq predictions and the guy in the previous thread who thought modern amphibious assaults involved a thousand guys piling into hundreds of inflatable zodiacs and driving them up onto the beach. I’m gonna need more info on that last one.
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# ¿ Jul 12, 2023 22:28 |
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Soldiers are famous for their sobriety and good judgement. That's definitely the stereotype.
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# ¿ Jul 13, 2023 16:29 |
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BougieBitch posted:Look, I'm not saying I doubt that SOLDIERS use uppers, and certainly it is understandable why it would be in the best interest of Russia for people to be using uppers even if it is just something as basic as coffee or caffeine pills, but what I'm moreso getting at is that those sorts of things are a LUXURY, and the people on the front being the "disposables" doesn't track with them having extensive access to performance-enhancing drugs. Do we really think that the same people who are getting so stiffed that they have to fundraise to buy their own boots is getting a continuous supply of pharma enhancement from Moscow? Once again, evidence must be wrong because it doesn’t fit with the assumptions of a random dude. Amazing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ¿ Jul 13, 2023 16:43 |
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So you aren’t even talking about this specific piece of news then? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ¿ Jul 14, 2023 23:28 |
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I’m assuming this would be a good time with the relative advantage in night vision? It’s sundown in Kyiv as I type this, or so sayeth a quick search.
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# ¿ Jul 26, 2023 19:54 |
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Absurd Alhazred posted:That sounds like the various National Guards in the US. I was about to say, "The National Guard can only be used domestic-," but then I just gave the longest and loudest sigh of my life.
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# ¿ Jul 29, 2023 04:53 |
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daslog posted:No, I don't want Ukraine to lose, and quite frankly I find your insinuations disgusting. Is it really so hard to understand that our elected leaders in the US have lost our trust when it comes to foreign conflicts? The public was told that the Iraq war would practically pay for itself and 2.4 trillion dollars later we figured out that was a lie. Afghanistan was supposed to be a quick operation, 2.2 trillion dollars and 20 years later we achieved nothing (except offing Laden). You desperately need to actually learn stuff that isn’t Schoolhouse Rock-level. I don’t think anyone actually disagrees with your positions per se, you’re just basing them off a bunch of things that are objectively not true. Like, every time you talk about debt you just make it more clear you don’t actually know how that works, at all. That’s not how national debt works! It isn’t! There is no debate, you don’t know what national debt is. Why do you keep bringing up OIF???? It’s not analogous at all. The cost, the goals, the diplomatic situation, who is fighting are all different. Why don’t I just bring up the Second Boer War? It’s exactly as relevant. People are responding negatively because you sound like a well-meaning tween who learned all their politics from overheard snippets of their parents watching Fox News. It’s a very frustrating conversation to have.
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# ¿ Aug 9, 2023 00:47 |
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War is economically great in the sense that it makes absolute poo poo tons of people do lots of stuff like make all the support infrastructure for the people actually fighting. Unless it’s safely on another continent though, it has a strong tendency to still be a net negative with all the death and explosions and destruction. The US is in a relatively rare position of usually exporting all its violence with minimal domestic reprisals. In theory you could do the exact same thing but with cancer research or an actual good, but I’ve been informed that’s socialism and bad.
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# ¿ Aug 9, 2023 02:15 |
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Using high explosives on cancer cells is a neglected avenue of research, I gotta admit. Is there any cancer anymore? Then we have technically cured it.
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# ¿ Aug 9, 2023 02:33 |
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If you know you don’t know something, why are you writing multiple paragraphs instead of learning. I’m serious.
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# ¿ Aug 9, 2023 04:19 |
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i happen to be watching an old bbc docuseries on ww1, and one major component of trench warfare seems to be missing in the modern analogy to ukraine's southern front, namely the effective use of immediate counter attacks to reclaim any ground seized. the heavily fortified approach to the trenches and devastating artillery fire i think live on most in the common imagination, but what's really striking to me is the way that any temporary gains by either the allies or central powers on the western front are consistently reversed by an immediate heavy local counter attack before adequate reserves have the opportunity to come up. maybe it's skewed by my news sources, but this doesn't really seem to be a feature in many of the battles in this war, probably because lines of communication and supply are so much more robust then they were a century ago Saratoga covered one part of the answer (force density), so I’ll cover the other : transportation and communication logistics, and the lack there of. In WWI all your logistics have to come in via train. And once you cross over No Man’s Land, you’re by your enemies big logistics hub (it’s their trench network), meanwhile all your bullets and bombs and bandages and bully beef are on the other side of No Man’s Land. The Mordor covered in razorwire and shellholes and the ghosts of your friends, a thing designed to be really hard to get across. So the enemy has supplies coming out of the nose to counter-attack with, while you have whatever spares you have after taking the trench. Remember how this is after you crossed the Land of Death and fought a lot of dudes already? This is exacerbated because there isn’t a good way to talk to your superiors back in your trench. Radios exist, but they’re still crude enough that you’re just blasting out your secret military commands and hoping nobody else is listening. The Russians tried that at the beginning and got absolutely wrecked because it’s very dumb. Your other options are : 1) a telephone, which involves some poor bastard carrying a spool of telephone cable and carefully running it behind him and them both surviving aforementioned Razor-Mordor-Hell ; or 2) dudes running with notes, again through an incredibly deadly and much, much bigger than you think field. Meanwhile the enemy is right next to all the other enemy for that counter attack. So you don’t know if help is coming, and your bosses don’t know if you’re alive or dead. The Bite and Hold tactic of the later, more successful part of WWI was all about trying to counteract these problems and get better at resisting counter attacks. Instant communication, tanks, trucks. (Plus other stuff, I’m not trying to be exhaustive.)
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# ¿ Aug 17, 2023 03:47 |
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# ¿ May 17, 2024 17:04 |
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I'm absolutely ashamed this is even a discussion. It's genocide denial.
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# ¿ Aug 17, 2023 15:12 |