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Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



saratoga posted:

The way they're mixing in more and more barely trained or equipped troops along not just quiet areas but really active areas of the front makes me wonder how well the army as a whole will be able to function under attack. Seems like a lot of those guys are going to melt away when a couple tanks roll towards their trench, or if they don't, they're not going to have the equipment to do much about it anyway. That is going to put even more strain on the limited number of professional troops still available to contain and counterattack.

Actually, if people don't mind explaining to muggins here :

As someone who's been broadly following the conflict but hasn't been checking day-by-day for a couple of months, how's that counter-offensive looking in general? I know Bakhmut has been hell, but I don't have an appreciation of if that's localized or if it's affected Ukrainian reserves. The general flow of "let Russia exhaust themselves, then giant offensive" seems to be working but I don't know about its long-term viability.

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Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



OAquinas posted:

It's not a dramatic Kharkiv Mk II--so far. They've ratcheted up the tempo of their deep attacks with HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles, and have been chewing the hell out of rus logistics. No major troop incursions yet; this may change soon since Zelenskyy has officially said "it's on" a day or two back. Safe to say they're weighing options and seeing where the soft/vulnerable spots are. It's also possible they're giving russia time to redeploy units to Belgorod and other russian territories to deal with the "independent people's liberation front" groups--the fewer men and materiel in theatre the better.

That said, russia's got a fuckton of mobiks manning the front, so there really isn't any area virtually undefended (like Kharkiv was). That said, the mettle of the mobik forces has yet to be tested with a full on assault.


Basically, it's status quo. For now. Much like Betelgeuse going supernova, action could happen any day now.

Is there some vague idea of how they're doing in terms of manpower, morale, ammunition/logistics, etc.? I know that they're under strong incentives to pull an Alex Jones, i.e. they're the best and the strongest and will never give up but only if you keep funding me please give me monies. But do we have some vague idea of what's going on beneath that?

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



beer_war posted:

Mike Kofman talks about the counteroffensive in the latest War on the Rocks Podcast: https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/ukraines-offensive-and-its-meaning-for-the-war/

tl;dl: He's cautiously optimistic, but temper your expectations.

O a nice big audio-summary seems like just the thing to catch me up on it. And bonus, no one has to scroll by someone explaining things in the middle of a news thread.

Thanks a mill.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



“2nd best army in Ukraine” is a pretty great low key burn.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



I’m assuming every military is paying attention and keeping copious notes. The US was intensely watching Donbas in 14, so no way they aren’t keeping track of how their fancy toys are working in practice.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



I mean they don’t call it the Normal Hornet.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



MikeC posted:

1) Lack of panicked Russian posting on telegram that are located deeper and deeper behind the front lines on an hourly basis like what happened in Kharkiv shortly after that op kicked off.

2) The fact that the Kharkiv offensive was the only case in over a year of fighting that had the Ukrainians actually defeat Russian forces and capture large amounts of territory. Every other instance of major liberation of territory has come from the Russians withdrawing largely on their own terms (Kyiv pocket and other northern Oblasts in April 22, Kherson after 2 months of fighting and Russians withdrawing across the Dnipro with no mass surrender).

Both cases had Russians under severe supply constraints on over extended positions. This time around they have had 8 months of preparation in the south. I don't know why anyone who has looked into the conflict with any depth would expect another Kharkiv like success unless you thought Western tanks and vehicles were wonder weapons.

That's not evidence. That's you just saying poo poo.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Chalks posted:

The southern axis is very well fortified and the Russians have had a long time to plan the defence of this obvious weak point. The Kharkiv counter offensive was remarkable, made possible by a complete failure of Russian planning catching them by surprise. That is not the case here.

Sure, that's a short but fair summary of some of the difficulties the counter-offensive is and will be facing.

It also has gently caress all support for MikeC's empty speculation because he just authoritatively said some poo poo like your drunk uncle, which is what he always does.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



MikeC posted:

I agree and have said as much in the past (no one has classified knowledge here) but the lack of Russian whinge on telegram is pretty strong circumstantial evidence unless the Russians have fixed their issues on this file.

The stuff coming out of the Kharkiv fight and the subsequent Kherson were pretty decent indicators of how bad things were or were not going. Even the Ukrainians were leaking the pace of their advance by social media images. So far, pretty quiet on both ends.

This is called a spurious correlation. And your sample size is 1. Two things happened at the same time, and now you're arguing that because 1 isn't happening the other can't be.

That's just not how evidence works. Saying "X indicates Y" does not mean it does, and even if it did your premises don't follow each other.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



alex314 posted:

AT-16 Scallion has a range of 10-12 km. Manpads top out at 7km. Also getting a lock that far away for IR missile would be unlikely.
You would need something like SA-15 (Tor) and those systems are needed to also down cruise missiles.

I'm sorry but... like a green onion? I googled it quick and that doesn't seem to be a typo. I'm just kind of surprised by that name.

If they make a smaller one, would it be called the CHIVE?

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Learn something every day. Cool.

Thanks, folks.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Nenonen posted:

USA is secretly panslavic :911:

And the UK and Australia and France and Liberia and Cuba and Paraguay and Luxembourg and Cambodia and Panama and Norway and the Dominican Republic and…

Red, white and blue is a very popular color scheme.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Having a giant internal fight in between different halves of your armed forces in the opening stages of an active counter-offensive seems… less than ideal.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Just apropos of nothing : when was the last time we had proof of life on Putin? I.e. him doing a thing we can be sure happened, not a released statement or a generic video or whatever.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Shogeton posted:

Have we considered the possibility that Lukashenko is a master-statesman filled with Solomonic wisdom?

I bet he’d cut a baby in half given a chance.

So I guess kinda?

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



So just to confirm, we still haven’t actually seen Putin?

Does anybody else feel like that’s weird?

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Fidelitious posted:

At the beginning sure, but mercenaries that change sides after having already signed would tend to not get a lot of future business.

Could I introduce you to my friend, Mr. 30 Years War? I think he has some important information for you.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



alex314 posted:

That's why you pay your mercs on time, or else they start to "live off land"...

Also it's different when merc outfit is tied closely to specific country or country bloc.

It was (nominally) a religious civil war. Dudes were switching all day e'rry day with their immortal souls.

But, as stated, not relevant since Wagner aren't actually mercenaries.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Boris Galerkin posted:

Eh it’s not any worse than

Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth

or

Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford

E: Seems to just be a Thing that they do :shrug:. The only weird thing imo is the UK using a living person’s name (well, living at the time) instead of someone dead and historical.

E2: On closer reading the Queen Elizabeth class/vessel was named after a much earlier Queen Elizabeth. Still sounds weird though since it’s easily confused for with the Queen Elizabeth that was still alive at the time they were named. EITHER WAY there is also a second UK aircraft carrier named the HMS Prince of Wales and well that dude is also still very much alive.

Were you just surprised that there had been another Queen Elizabeth before Elizabath II.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Elyv posted:

if someone were to make a myanmar/SEA thread I would love to lurk it as well because I know almost nothing about that conflict and don't know where to easily find more other than the occasional news story

Extreme same.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Telsa Cola posted:

Archaeological surveyor.

UXO removal in the states is generally done federally and because of this they are generally legally required to have an archaeological consultant on hand as the removal is 90% of the time ground disturbing and has a chance to impact cultural resources. The project area has to be surveyed before they do any digging, heavy equipment moving, etc.

Sometimes you have EOD folks with you who check everything out/clear a path, sometimes they just give you a ppt that's "Don't pick up or kick metal poo poo" and let you loose.

I think I've walked up on 1 UXO per year worked. My favorite so far is the shell we found full of mustard gas.

It’s off-topic, but I would love to read as many words as you care to write about your job.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Saladman posted:

Which of those sides is clearly on the verge of collapse though? Economically Turkey is in a much, much worse state than Russia. The Turkish economy is an absolute dumpster fire, with Erdogan squeezing on lighter fluid, and they ran out of net foreign reserves recently. The Turkish lira is guaranteed to lose an additional 50-80% in the next two years, and it's already lost 80% in the past three years. If they had pegged their currency to the Euro before, they would be staring at a complete currency collapse like Lebanon did in 2019 because they maintained their USD peg way too long. Instead a slide of 95% over five years is probably just not-catastrophic-enough to result in a de facto euro-ization/dollarization of the economy. Already property in Turkey - even sold between Turkish residents - is *publicly* priced and sold in foreign currencies, and it has been for some time. (At least since 2021, but possibly way before this, I don't know.)

Erdogan needs to stay on the good side of both Russia and Europe, or rather continue his current line straddling of having both sides dislike, but not hate, him.

The two sides are Russia compared to NATO, I believe. And I think they don’t mean specifically economics.

They’re saying that Russia’s increased downward trend is making Turkey’s straddling more complicated, and this would be them kind of searching for new footing/balance to continue the metaphor. If you’re balancing on top of two piles, and one starts collapsing, you have to be ready to move your weight.

Hopefully I’m not putting too many words in another poster’s mouth.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Telsa Cola posted:

I used a "hand held" one last year for several projects and the are indeed exhausting as gently caress to use. It's a neat technology but there are a lot of caveats to using GPR effectively, primarily to the condition/type of ground you are using it on. Definitely a good tool to consider though.

Exhausting as in “tedious and methodical”, “stressful”, “requiring great mental strain”, “physically taxing” or…? Like would you describe it as “exhausting” in general, even if it wasn’t UXO and just a bunch of potsherds?

GPR is one of those things I always wanted to gently caress around with. I’m like a three year old with bulldozers.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Cpt_Obvious posted:

I don't think you can compare the first and only use of nuclear weapons in human history with conventional terror bombing campaigns. The latter of which has never worked to force a surrender and usually does the opposite.

Well neither has the former.

This is one of those topics where if you think you have something cogent to say you either 1) are a very qualified specialist or 2)wrong and you should not say anything.

Not picking on you, Cpt_Obvious, you were just the closest person to quote : if you (general "you" ; "one") are trying to make a strong causative claim about the effects of the nuclear bombs on WWII, you are probably already wrong and should stop talking.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Vaginaface posted:

The Russian food I wish was more common in the states is "chips fish". It's like fish jerky and it's good as hell. Fish must be feminine or UnAmerican or something I don't know.

Does anyone have recommendations on podcasts/books for someone wanting to deep dive Kurdish history, culture, and current geopolitics?

I’d point to most of the US being terminally landlocked.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



MikeC posted:

Blowing up the school is unlawful though, hence it is murder. Using weapons to fight a war isn't unlawful though. The standard you set for yourself was war crimes. The UN does allow even direct strikes against civilians as long it is not excessive in relation to the concrete and direct overall military advantage anticipated.

So your previous post was inaccurate? You do not personally draw the line at "war crimes" then? Unitary munitions also have duds that will go on to "kill indiscriminately for decades after they're used" so are those also unacceptable to you?

Pretending you only understand the most robotic and legalistic definition of a word is not a good look.

VitalSigns clearly means murder in the very common sense of "to cause the death of a person in an amoral manner". If I told you my mom got stabbed to death on a cruise ship you wouldn't reference naval maps to see whether or not she was in international waters at the time. And if it was instead an accident it'd still be perfectly normal to say the captain "murdered" her through negligence.

I don't particularly agree with VitalSigns*, but that whole schtick is absolutely bullshit rhetoric and brings everything down.

*although I don't disagree over-much either

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Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Yo that was a hell of a post, hoss.

Thanks.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Nenonen posted:

It would be funny if Russia ran out of mines that were stored adequately and only the preliminary line was fully mined, which lead into them rushing reserves to fill the holes in the first line. But my honest take is that it's a gamble to make that very first line the main defence line because there is time to do so and because giving ground is politically unviable even when it's militarily recommendable. In any case, it's very polite to bring the attritional fight closer to Ukraine's starting positions.

Comedy prediction : they rushed the soldiers’ train too much and they literally can’t defend in depth. No one on the ground really knows how.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Moon Slayer posted:

Put this post up on the big board of incredibly wrong takes along with Grover's Iraq predictions and the guy in the previous thread who thought modern amphibious assaults involved a thousand guys piling into hundreds of inflatable zodiacs and driving them up onto the beach.

I’m gonna need more info on that last one.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Soldiers are famous for their sobriety and good judgement.

That's definitely the stereotype.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



BougieBitch posted:

Look, I'm not saying I doubt that SOLDIERS use uppers, and certainly it is understandable why it would be in the best interest of Russia for people to be using uppers even if it is just something as basic as coffee or caffeine pills, but what I'm moreso getting at is that those sorts of things are a LUXURY, and the people on the front being the "disposables" doesn't track with them having extensive access to performance-enhancing drugs. Do we really think that the same people who are getting so stiffed that they have to fundraise to buy their own boots is getting a continuous supply of pharma enhancement from Moscow?

Basically, why do we think that the circles of "mobiks", "front line", and "amphetamines" would have the greatest overlap in a circumstance where we know that Russia has great supply issues? It seems like Occam's razor to me to assume instead that Ukraine has deliberately or accidentally conflated the symptoms of PTSD or sleep dep with drug use and withdrawal, and while I don't doubt that they would find some amount of drugs in the possession of some of the people they capture I think the way that clause is structured in that article might be part of the whole "Russians are orcs" line of thought where you dehumanize them so that you can tolerate having to kill them. If nothing else, can we at least agree that characterizing drug use as unique to the "disposable" caste of the Russian military is probably not accurate, and the use rate is probably equal or greater farther up the chain as you get to the guys manning artillery or whatever?

Once again, evidence must be wrong because it doesn’t fit with the assumptions of a random dude.

Amazing.

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Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



So you aren’t even talking about this specific piece of news then?

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Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



I’m assuming this would be a good time with the relative advantage in night vision? It’s sundown in Kyiv as I type this, or so sayeth a quick search.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Absurd Alhazred posted:

That sounds like the various National Guards in the US.

I was about to say, "The National Guard can only be used domestic-," but then I just gave the longest and loudest sigh of my life.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



daslog posted:

No, I don't want Ukraine to lose, and quite frankly I find your insinuations disgusting. Is it really so hard to understand that our elected leaders in the US have lost our trust when it comes to foreign conflicts? The public was told that the Iraq war would practically pay for itself and 2.4 trillion dollars later we figured out that was a lie. Afghanistan was supposed to be a quick operation, 2.2 trillion dollars and 20 years later we achieved nothing (except offing Laden).

There are always people out there like yourself who will viciously attack anyone that disagrees with them. I know it sounds crazy, but some of us do actually care what kind of country we are leaving for our grandchildren. Our debt is spiraling out of control because the same people that demand we fund all these foreign conflicts also demand endless tax cuts for the wealthy. I can only shake my head at the people that think these people will not demand a large increase in the defense budget.

So yes, I'm willing to support the war, but I'm no longer willing to watch the country go further into debt on yet another foreign conflict while the foundation of our government continues to crumble. Judging from that CNN poll, I'm not alone. If we want to fund the Ukrainians I can live with it, we just have to pay for it.

You desperately need to actually learn stuff that isn’t Schoolhouse Rock-level.

I don’t think anyone actually disagrees with your positions per se, you’re just basing them off a bunch of things that are objectively not true. Like, every time you talk about debt you just make it more clear you don’t actually know how that works, at all. That’s not how national debt works! It isn’t! There is no debate, you don’t know what national debt is.

Why do you keep bringing up OIF???? It’s not analogous at all. The cost, the goals, the diplomatic situation, who is fighting are all different. Why don’t I just bring up the Second Boer War? It’s exactly as relevant.

People are responding negatively because you sound like a well-meaning tween who learned all their politics from overheard snippets of their parents watching Fox News. It’s a very frustrating conversation to have.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



War is economically great in the sense that it makes absolute poo poo tons of people do lots of stuff like make all the support infrastructure for the people actually fighting. Unless it’s safely on another continent though, it has a strong tendency to still be a net negative with all the death and explosions and destruction. The US is in a relatively rare position of usually exporting all its violence with minimal domestic reprisals.

In theory you could do the exact same thing but with cancer research or an actual good, but I’ve been informed that’s socialism and bad.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Using high explosives on cancer cells is a neglected avenue of research, I gotta admit.

Is there any cancer anymore? Then we have technically cured it.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



If you know you don’t know something, why are you writing multiple paragraphs instead of learning.

I’m serious.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



GhostofJohnMuir posted:

i happen to be watching an old bbc docuseries on ww1, and one major component of trench warfare seems to be missing in the modern analogy to ukraine's southern front, namely the effective use of immediate counter attacks to reclaim any ground seized. the heavily fortified approach to the trenches and devastating artillery fire i think live on most in the common imagination, but what's really striking to me is the way that any temporary gains by either the allies or central powers on the western front are consistently reversed by an immediate heavy local counter attack before adequate reserves have the opportunity to come up. maybe it's skewed by my news sources, but this doesn't really seem to be a feature in many of the battles in this war, probably because lines of communication and supply are so much more robust then they were a century ago

i have no idea what the ratio of casualties is, or the depths of either sides reserves, so it's impossible to say how sustainable the fight is, but if they actually manage to hold the ground they do take it's at least a slight step up from the grind of ww1

Saratoga covered one part of the answer (force density), so I’ll cover the other : transportation and communication logistics, and the lack there of.

In WWI all your logistics have to come in via train. And once you cross over No Man’s Land, you’re by your enemies big logistics hub (it’s their trench network), meanwhile all your bullets and bombs and bandages and bully beef are on the other side of No Man’s Land. The Mordor covered in razorwire and shellholes and the ghosts of your friends, a thing designed to be really hard to get across. So the enemy has supplies coming out of the nose to counter-attack with, while you have whatever spares you have after taking the trench. Remember how this is after you crossed the Land of Death and fought a lot of dudes already?

This is exacerbated because there isn’t a good way to talk to your superiors back in your trench. Radios exist, but they’re still crude enough that you’re just blasting out your secret military commands and hoping nobody else is listening. The Russians tried that at the beginning and got absolutely wrecked because it’s very dumb. Your other options are : 1) a telephone, which involves some poor bastard carrying a spool of telephone cable and carefully running it behind him and them both surviving aforementioned Razor-Mordor-Hell ; or 2) dudes running with notes, again through an incredibly deadly and much, much bigger than you think field. Meanwhile the enemy is right next to all the other enemy for that counter attack. So you don’t know if help is coming, and your bosses don’t know if you’re alive or dead.

The Bite and Hold tactic of the later, more successful part of WWI was all about trying to counteract these problems and get better at resisting counter attacks.



Instant communication, tanks, trucks. (Plus other stuff, I’m not trying to be exhaustive.)

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Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



I'm absolutely ashamed this is even a discussion.

It's genocide denial.

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