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Biggest disappointment of 2023?
The Dallas Cowboys (gently caress 'em)
The New York Giants
The Philadephia Eagles
The Washington Washingtons
Myself for watching NFC East Clownball
View Results
 
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Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

BiggerBoat posted:

The weird cult of personality around Dak in this thread is strange.

He's fine, has some talent and may be better than the results we've seen on the field if one wants to look for excuses for him but, again, no GM in this entire god damned league would take him over Jalen Hurts right now and that's a loving fact. I doubt that if Dallas fans were really being honest that they wouldn't take him too and agree. I can't think of one GM in the league that would replace Jalen with Dak, even if they were the same age.

You guys want us to admit that Prescott is good? I think he's quite good, and probably better than his record, but some of you need a reality check here and should remind yourselves who went toe to toe with the best QB in the game last year in the Super Bowl and look at who's getting better every year with no real ceiling in sight. If Jalen has hit his top tier, as of right now, and plays to the baseline he put up last year then it's no contest.

I look forward to the Eagles running roughshod over Dallas this year while we await all the reasons it's not Prescott's fault. Dallas might have a top 2 or 3 defense this year, which can win a lot of games though so we'll see.

I see the same fan base that crowned Carson Wentz after he got outplayed by Nick Foles is giving out new crowns.

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Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Doltos posted:

Deuce is a top tier athlete that's obviously an extremely good runner but will probably never see a blocking down in his life because cmon

It would be a true test of "low man wins".

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Jerry will always be a bastard for keeping Jimmy Johnson out of the ring of honor seemingly over his dead body.

He's still not half as bad as the worst failsons and rich dick owners. But, definitely a grade A rear end in a top hat.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Clearly, whatever power sharing agreement they've arranged behind the scenes is working to limit grandpa's bad days from harming the team.

Jerry may have a buffoonish public persona, but the Cowboys org seems very well run. In the East, only the Eagles have been comparably managed, and a big part of that success seems to rely on Howie being a sharp gambler.

E: And, I view the Trey Lance trade being a response to the kind of sharp bets the Eagles have been making.

Ayudo fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Aug 30, 2023

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Sad to hear that only the Eagles had to compete on a lovely field. Tough break.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
The line for the Cowboys bandwagon starts here.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Giants in danger of being relegated to the NFC South

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Dallas might not lose a game

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Mr. Nice! posted:

It's true, though. Dak can't win if he gets down by 10 in the second. If you look at Dak's history he has essentially no wins at all where he was down by 10 in the second. It might be specifically down 10 at the half. I can't remember for sure, but basically Dak cannot play from behind. If the cowboys go down early, they're hosed.

What is the baseline win rate for all teams that fall behind by 10 at the half?

I'll take my answer offline thanks!

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Diqnol posted:

Exhibit B: Peyton Manning.

Peyton Manning was 3-6 in the post season going into his age 30 season.

Where he went 4-0 in the post season and won it all.

Dak is 30.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

euphronius posted:

If Dak turns into a better QB then he will be better

Yes good point

Sorry, I'll dumb it down for you.

The narrative around Peyton Manning prior to 2007 was that he couldn't play in the post season. No one regards him that way anymore, but plenty of people were ready to close the book on him before he was 30.

I'm not saying Dak is Peyton Manning. I'm saying that players can improve their post season success well into their careers. Even after we've all decided what we know they can't.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Doltos posted:

For a bit defense didnt matter and the last two winners didn't have the greatest but defense still matters

Those Eli helmed Superbowl teams proving that you don't even have to be particularly good on either side of the ball!

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Mind_Taker posted:

Ron Rivera is a huge coward for not going for 2 at the end.

I get why coaches chicken out on winning the game outright, but it seems like going for the win is an obviously better bet than overtime when we're just talking two-yards at the goal line.

The Eagles could go for two after every touchdown and likely succeed 75% of the time.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Isn't the broadcast on a tape delay? That's probably the easiest way for "machine learning" to identify pressure in real time.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
What happens when a team that only plays in blowouts meets a team that only plays in weird games.

https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status/1713957312065618033?s=20

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
It was close, but the Cowboys remain America's team.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Quiet Feet posted:

Just to be sure, we're talking about the Dallas Cowboys football team and not bathroom bjs, right?.

We're all just looking for our glory hole days.

E: what is a ring of honor if not a glory hole?

https://twitter.com/GehlkenNFL/status/1717213945298104344?t=KJhJbZR7dneiZBaMLAwnlw&s=19

Ayudo fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Oct 25, 2023

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Doltos posted:

I love stats because this motherfucker just hit us with an adjusted for era and then put this statline:
as flowerly as possible

DVOA says Aikman was good, actually.

https://x.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1673700240917151744?s=20

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

biceps crimes posted:

The only thing wrong with the Cowboys is Jerry Jones

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Sam Williams as punt gunner is wild to see. Now if he could just break out on the DLine.

https://twitter.com/GehlkenNFL/status/1719020826421280913?s=20

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

MD2020 posted:

The second Eagles/Cowboys game is on SNF, so NBC probably didn't want the same game in the span of like 5 weeks.

poo poo, Eagles/Cowboys is the only NFC East matchup fit for SNF.

Every other combination is Thursday night football.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

I never understand how the Cowboys seem to routinely let a weak backup tackle get bullied all game long. I'll never forget Adrian Clayborn's six sack game against Chaz Green.

I get Steele is a starter and Green wasn't, but Steele probably shouldn't be a starter.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Cowboys have been in multiple blowouts, and Mike never sits his starters before the 4th quarter. Hell, they were sending the starting Dline back in one week when the other team dared cross the 50.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

blarzgh posted:


So weird

So, Dak's first MVP season will be this year.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

blarzgh posted:

Unlikely as long as Mahomes has at least one arm (left or right, he could probably do with either.)

I was curious what it would take for Dak to win MVP, and just looking back to 2018, it generally takes four things:

Win 12 or more games and be within 1 win of the best record,
Score 500 or more points,
Win your division and,
Secure the 1 seed in your conference.

The only exception was Rodgers in '21, where Tampa scored 500+ points, but GB held the top seed with only 450 points.

Hurts should really be considered the front runner given their inside track to the 1 seed and record, not Mahomes. Dak could still do it though!

Ayudo fucked around with this message at 20:14 on Nov 13, 2023

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

MrMojok posted:

Although, I have no earthly idea how they tabulate this.

ESPN staffers analyzing every single pass thrown by every QB in every game?

Yeah, QBR is derived from the play by play data and run through whatever EPA and WP formula ESPN uses.

As I understand it, the QB's EPA is down weighted on plays where his team's win probability meets a garbage time threshold.

The newer QBR is probably fine as an additional measuring stick for QB efficiency, but it will inherently measure some things outside the QB's control.

Like throwing an interception will logically result in negative EPA, but the defense returning it for six is mostly random chance. QBR will grade the unlucky QB more harshly in that instance.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Most Valuable Prescott

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Jimmy Johnson to the ring of honor. Our long national nightmare is finally over!

https://twitter.com/clarencehilljr/status/1726296437628269005?t=Sv9Os_PWs1mqXdQwj0RhjQ&s=19

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Dak's MVP campaign rolls on.

Dallas still America's team.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

MrMojok posted:

You have got to be kidding me.

How carved can this turkey get?

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
I think Hurts should be the odds on favorite at this point. Interesting tweet on the disconnect between EPA and MVP odds this year, but that's probably attributable to the disconnect between points for and wins.

The Eagles are 7th in points for (sandwiched between the Lions, Bills, and Chargers), but have the most wins on the season.

https://twitter.com/KevinCole___/status/1729137267862610383?s=20

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

blarzgh posted:

I'm not a gambler, but I think taking Purdy at +1500 is a great play; if SF beats Philly, the odds flip and you can cash out maybe

Yeah, I can see the MVP voters talking themselves into Purdy if they can get the one seed.

Niners remaining schedule is PHI, SEA, ARI, BAL, WAS, LAR. That's not exactly a murderers row of teams outside of PHI and BAL. Purdy may just have it if he can win in philly. No small feat.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
This is the best the Cowboy's rushing game has looked all year.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

blarzgh posted:

I'm a Gilmore Girl

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

blarzgh posted:

Most

Valuable

Prescott

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
These Cowboys gently caress.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
You need to take a couple of shellackings to round into playoff shape. Almost there Eagles.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Dak has had a long road from Sulphur, LA, to MSU, to MVP front runner.

Whatever goes on the rest of the season, I'll be happy to see the "Dak is Kirk Cousins" narrative finally die.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Dak has the best CPOE (chicken parm over expected) since Manning.

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Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
Eagles might not win another game.

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