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My home league started our own goddam podcast so that we could get drunk and trash talk more, and make sure the people who moved away still get to hear how bad they suck. I love what absolute animals we’ve become. In conclusion Quiet Feet posted:Fantasy football is a mental disorder that runs from September to December. Like seasonal depression but dumber.
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May 6, 2023 15:22
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 06:35 |
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Yeah the drop off for Chubb when Watson came back is really stark. Who knows if that will continue or if they will return to giving one of the best backs in the league the ball again but it is concerning. Also I wouldn’t sweat missing out on Everett too much. You have several picks that could be used on a rookie TE in a good class if you’re so inclined.
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May 6, 2023 20:32
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Silly Burrito posted:Kamara will also be sharing touches with Jamaal Williams and the new rookie even when the suspension is over. Yeah Kamara's arrow is pointing straight down imo. He was like the only functioning RB on the Saints last year and yet his usage got worse and worse as the season went on. Using my favorite website ever you can see that Taysom Hill was their goal line back, getting more attempts and having more success inside the 10. It also indicates Kamara got one target inside the 10 all year so he wasn't getting used that way either. The explanation may just be that Dennis Allen sucks but whatever the case, Kamara was not getting high value touches. All his work was between the 20s. And now they've added Jamaal "platonic ideal of a goal line back" Williams and a 3rd round rookie. Plus the whole suspension fear. I would want no part of him in dynasty and not really even redraft. They aren't acting like he's a big part of their future plans. Sataere posted:Pacheco has limited value to you. Yes, he's a second year back, but by the time you are competing for a championship, he'll be a 4th or 5th year back and the odds of him being one of your top three backs is negligible. He'll be depth on your championship team. Draft picks are where you will get young talent that can break out or leverage into elite players. Pacheco was also a 7th round draft pick and these guys get thrown in the dumpster all the time. I do like him as long as his value isn't getting blown out of proportion. But a guy like him is a couple bad games from being out of the league so buyer beware. AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:If he cant do it with a football why would I do it in fantasy? lol 
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May 9, 2023 22:28
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Dak should be a low end starter but Fat Mike replaced his aggressive passing OC with Brian Schottenheimer and has been talking non stop about how he wants to run the rock like it’s 1985 so his ceiling may not be anything to write home about. I swear I don’t hate all players in fantasy! Just seems like all the guys I am bearish on have been coming up ITT.
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May 10, 2023 15:49
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https://twitter.com/BadBoyOfScoops/status/1656998174991568898 I wonder what RB's fantasy value he is going to end up ruining. Also grats to all Mattison dynasty managers, I guess
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May 12, 2023 19:48
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:I'm up to pick in my rookie dynasty draft, late 4th round. Maybe I'll grab uh, DeWayne McBride? Doesn’t seem like the worst bet! Especially at that stage of a draft
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May 12, 2023 20:06
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I still think there’s a high probability they bring Zeke back on a cheap rear end deal after absolutely no other team shows interest. He’s washed but Jerry is not a logical man.
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May 13, 2023 02:28
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Is the 1.01 going to take Richardson? But yeah if Bijan falls to you, take him and log off Why the gently caress was someone so desperate to get 2023 Kamara lmao
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May 21, 2023 19:42
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I'm definitely eager to target Lamar come redraft league season later this fall. I'm sure he'll be a hot target but still below the top tier guys
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May 24, 2023 19:17
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Sataere posted:I lean Akers, even though I have little trust in him. He finished the season strong and has no real competition. McVay likes to run the football. Agree with all of this. Although it depends on the pick you have to give up for Akers and who else would be available around there in your league format. Like in a normal 12 team league I would want to keep any of those options at their 2022 ADP. But if Akers can be had for a later round pick then I think he's a good flier Dicking around on Fantasypros looks like Akers is currently a 5th or 6th round ADP? Not accounting for keepers or anything obviously. That's tough, in that range if he's a total bust it still hurts. AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:Anyone have any thoughts on James Robinson in PPR dynasty? I have him in a Best Ball league and need to cut down some players so I have room for the players I draft. I'm a little thin at RB so I'm inclined to try to keep him, but he's competing with Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris, and Ty Montgomery for playing time behind Rhamondre so he could end up doing nothing all year. tbh I think the most likely outcome is he gets cut unless he tears up training camp, he's redundant to what they have
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May 30, 2023 17:43
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Docjowles posted:tbh I think the most likely outcome is he gets cut unless he tears up training camp, he's redundant to what they have James Robinson did indeed just get cut lol
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Jun 12, 2023 22:36
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Spoeank posted:Ezekiel Elliott, Baltimore Ravens This would at least be one of the less cursed landing spots. Not like they are going to give him a big share of Lamar’s carries. Whereas if he goes to, say, Dallas he will massively grief Pollard because of Jerry’s huge boner for him.
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Jun 16, 2023 18:21
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I keep swinging and missing in my keeper league. Best I can do this year is Rhamondre for a 7th (probably gonna be this) or Hurts for a 4th (single QB league, doesn't seem worth). I'm insanely jealous of the guy who can keep Chase for a mid round pick for several more years. "Free early first round pick every year" is a goddam cheat code Seems unlikely to be a dude like that this year unless literally everyone is wrong about one of the rookies. Which certainly happens! Bijan doesn't count as he's already a locked in first rounder
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Jul 6, 2023 20:48
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Yeah exactly. Gibbs is a solid bet this year but you don't get promising rookies for free anymore. He's gonna be like second or third round ADP I think. Not the absurd value you got from rookie Chase or JJ where you're keeping a top 5 pick for 5 years at minimal cost
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Jul 6, 2023 22:01
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Pain of Mind posted:Those both sound pretty good to me, though Hurts might lose value in an 8 or 10 team league or something. 12 team league for what it's worth, every team gets 1 keeper. Looking at last year's draft I can't imagine any other QB will be kept, most of the big guys either went very early or the team has another stellar keeper option like mid round Garrett Wilson. I wasn't thinking about Hurts at all really, going to have to reconsider that. Got a long time til I have to submit my keepers so it'll be interesting to see what home league ADPs look like next month vs best ball sickos drafting in June
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Jul 7, 2023 18:04
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Pain of Mind posted:Seems awfully high tech, we just use a sand hourglass from some kids game. My big home league still drafts in person and we use an app to track picks. But lmao I love this, we are always looking for stupid punishments to incorporate into draft day. “Forced to turn a huge novelty hourglass between every pick for a round” is right up our alley.
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Jul 11, 2023 06:41
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Cat Hassler posted:A dumbass in my bar league showed up for the live draft at the bar having done mushrooms beforehand We always force our Dave to take Justin Tucker after he loses touch with reality, then auto draft the rest of the way. He inevitably passes out in like the 5th round after intentionally drafting all Dallas Cowboys. He has won the payout for highest regular season total multiple times
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Jul 11, 2023 08:48
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A little surprised to see JSN fell into the 2nd in a rookie draft. Were people so thirsty for QBs they were taking like Stetson Bennett?
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Jul 12, 2023 15:46
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Yeah I feel like keeper translates fine to auction, just keep adding $10 or something to the price every year
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Jul 12, 2023 20:02
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Not sure what to make of Hopkins on the Titans. Like he’s instantly their WR1 by a million miles but if he’s getting 5 Ryan Tannehilll or Will Levis targets per game do I even care.
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Jul 16, 2023 20:32
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If you replace Levis with Willis it’s not meaningfully better they both suck rear end
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Jul 16, 2023 20:51
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I don’t follow Chris Harris anymore for fantasy rankings but I guarantee he has Nuk several rounds ahead of ADP. Dude is so horny for old / injured / suspended / holdout / used-to-be players. Personally I want no part of Hopkins unless he is free falling in my draft like 2+ rounds. He’s still an incredible player but his ceiling is mega capped on the Titans. I’ve spent a lot of years taking boring vets for their floor and it turns out nobody cares if you’re the third best team. I need upside.
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Jul 20, 2023 07:18
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Bellmaker posted:https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38037217/saquon-barkley-mulls-sitting-season-says-to This reminds me I also drafted Bell the time he sat out an entire year on Harris' advice  Nobody but myself to blame for actually pulling the trigger, and to be fair I think basically everyone on earth thought he would play eventually, but that was a good lesson in risk analysiskiimo posted:So much for Pacheco's PUP list. Not sure what Reid was hoping to accomplish there. Pacheco out there running around like a madman per usual gave best ball sickos a heart attack I'm sure 
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Jul 20, 2023 16:17
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Judgy Fucker posted:Hi fantasy football thread, I do not follow the NFL at all (college guy) but I’m tired of being the only person in my social circle who doesn’t play fantasy football so I’m diving in this year. I see a bunch of resources in the OP, I will take a look at those but wanted to ask: Huh, that's a fun one. Probably... understand the rules of your league and the site you're using. I think that's the biggest thing that changes what players are even good. There are settings that dramatically change the value of players. Like can you start 1 or 2 QBs (often called Superflex)? In Superflex QB is insanely important. Is it 0, 0.5, or 1 point per reception (PPR)? PPR can really boost guys who might not be total alpha studs but catch a billion 5 yard checkdowns. How and when do waivers work (this is when you drop and add new players during the season)? Understanding this stuff will help you avoid really big mistakes. Find some rankings you like and just use that starting out. Don't blindly follow them though. Like if you're up and the highest ranked player is an RB but your first 2 picks were also RBs you should probably take another position. Also "average draft position" (ADP) is a thing. It's a measure of where each player is picked on average across all drafts. Patrick Mahomes will have an earlier ADP than Baker Mayfield. "Reaching" for guys way earlier than their ADP is usually bad because you could have picked a more valuable player and likely still gotten that guy the next round. Getting guys who "fall" way later than their ADP can be good value. An example would be last year's Seahawks. Everyone thought they would suck rear end so they kept falling and falling. When they turned out to actually be quite good, anyone who gambled on their players in a late round looked brilliant. Guys in your draft app will probably be sorted by ADP so you don't need to go out of your way to find this. Do not take a kicker or defense until the final 2 rounds. We are always wrong about what defenses will be good and you can usually just "stream" the position by adding someone playing vs a poo poo team that week. It's supposed to be fun! Don't overthink it (unless you find that fun, like most of the degens in this thread). Draft players you like. Do trades. Talk mad poo poo. kiimo posted:Draft Kelce be aware that kiimo's mission in life (I hesitate to call it a posting gimmick since he's 100% sincere) is hyping all chiefs players all the time. Even guys who are probably not going to make the roster. But... he's not wrong here Ayudo posted:1. Draft for upside and ignore downside More or less agree as long as you aren't taking insane risks on every pick. You gotta take swings, nobody will ever care that you came in fourth with a bunch of boring safe dudes. If you aren't first you're last. The later you get in the draft the truer this gets. Late rounds are for "this guy probably won't do poo poo but if he does he's a league winner". If he fails who cares he was your 15th round pick dump him on waivers vvv all of this is good stuff Docjowles fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Jul 20, 2023 |
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Jul 20, 2023 19:39
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Silly Burrito posted:Why go to McDonald’s we have McDonald’s at home lol Andrews is getting hyped this year and hell I like him too. But he’s only actually done the Kelce season one time. Kelce does it every god drat year.
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Jul 21, 2023 15:42
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Pain of Mind posted:I am not even sure if I would have Andrews in the top 5 TE. He’s the consensus #2 so you’re definitely out of step on that. But “experts” are also wrong all the time. Giving them the finger to draft your own favorite dudes and then being right is one of the joys of fantasy  Fantasypros has Pitts as TE5 and I don’t know how anyone can make themselves pull that lever again. Yeah draft for upside but the upside has to have some chance of manifesting.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:00
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I really enjoyed having Goedert last year (til he and Hurts both got injured at the end of the year and loving torpedoed my run). It was so nice to have a reliable ~10 points a week instead of my usual play of streaming some dipshit and hoping they don't give me a 0. I don't usually go in for mid round TEs but there was nobody else on the board in that range I liked so gave it a shot. I feel like he deserves some credit. edit AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:Engram was TEP TE5 last year even though the Jags needed half the season to get the worst layers of the Urban Meyer stink off. While technically true he was massively buoyed by one HUGE game against the Titans where he scored like half his points for the season. But hell, having that kind of ceiling is rare, so I get it. Docjowles fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Jul 21, 2023 |
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Jul 21, 2023 16:20
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Chernabog posted:IIRC Andrews started really well last year and then he fell of a cliff. I also had Hock in another league and he won me a couple of weeks with insane numbers but most other games he did nothing noteworthy. Yeah Andrews was red hot for the first ~third of the season, people were saying he might finally surpass Kelce as the TE1 (lol). He had a bunch of 20+ point PPR games. Then he was hurt for a while and when he finally got off the injury report, Lamar missed the rest of the year and all of their other players were dead too and the Ravens just generally ground to a halt. The upside case is everyone stays healthy and he plays like that again plus the new OC calls a more pass heavy offense. Will it happen that way? Who knows  For what it's worth Kelce's ADP on Underdog best ball is currently 6 to Andrews' 29. So if you feel like Andrews can have a Kelce season getting him in the third round and instead using your first on Diggs or Ekeler or AJ Brown or whatever is insanely good. But it's a huge IF edit: I'm excited that the fantasy thread is starting to pop off already 
Docjowles fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Jul 21, 2023 |
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Jul 21, 2023 17:09
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I'm highly suspicious Schultz is just a guy and is now on a poo poo team with a rookie QB. But he's going in double digit rounds so like whatever. The "security blanket for the rookie" narrative is there if you want it.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:14
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edit: lol of course after I post this glowing review the app is not working for me today. Guessing it's like 1 dude and his AWS instance crashed or something Last night I was looking for a resource to mock draft best ball cause I’m interested in messing around with it but don’t want to throw away money getting my feet wet. I found this “mock ball” app on Reddit and it kicks rear end. I think it would work fine for mocking normal redraft leagues on the shitter, too. https://apps.apple.com/us/app/mock-ball/id6450122996 I think there’s an android version too. I have no affiliation with it at all so hopefully it’s not a Russian virus or something but it seems fine. There’s no login and it didn’t ask for any special permissions or anything. Supposedly it keeps ADP up to date. It’s obviously not perfect cause it doesn’t mimic what real people will be doing, building stacks and correlating players. So if you have JJ and Hockenson you are going to have to reach for Cousins to finish your stack or he’ll get auto drafted. Whereas it’s pretty unlikely a human is going to snipe naked Kirk Cousins and you could wait. But on the macro level I love it. Really helpful for seeing what kinds of guys go in each phase and what it feels like to start heavy WR or RB or Kelce/Mahomes. I wish you could filter the player list by team in addition to position but otherwise I love this thing. Also useful for surfacing which guys I have zero opinion on yet. I keep getting to a range where all the Miami RBs are there and I’m like
Docjowles fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Jul 24, 2023 |
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Jul 23, 2023 18:15
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Cnidario posted:So I got Chase first round and Burrow fifth round last year, and am strongly tempted to draft both again for the weekly bong hit that is watching the two of them make sweet love each week. Talk me out of it, because it feels so wrong! I see no reason not to. They're both fantastic picks, high ceiling high floor. And the offense runs through them so if one goes off so does the other. One of the best stacks you could ask for.
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Jul 25, 2023 05:21
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Kittle also WENT OFF in the fantasy playoffs. Which is awesome, that's exactly what you want! The guy who won $2 million in Best Ball Mania last year had Kittle. But he was also just "fine" for the rest of the season. If you look at him next to like Juwan Johnson it's not that different. If you flipped his performances from weeks 1-3 with 15-17 no one would remember or care what he did in 2022. That ceiling is of course why you'd draft Kittle. Very few dudes can do that. But if he doesn't hit that nut outcome you've spent a lot of resources on similar production to a guy who was free on waivers. Last year he had 11 touchdowns, and his previous best was 6. That's likely to regress and I think that's why people aren't just smashing Kittle. I'm not saying he's a bad pick or anything just that there's a reason he's not right next to Kelce in the ranks. kiimo's chart is the TLDR of my post heh
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Jul 25, 2023 16:49
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One dude in my main league always makes a comedy pick in the last round to drop for a kicker later (at least I think it’s on purpose; he’s always blackout drunk by then so hard to say). Like Tebow or Kaepernick or some other weirdo who’s inexplicably in the ESPN player pool. So I look forward to being in the 0.001% of leagues where Old Man Graham is drafted
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Jul 25, 2023 23:41
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I'd take the trade. Unless everyone is keeping RBs and you are going to be forced to replace Etienne with someone way way worse. A 1-2 of Hill and DK is really nice, and you can invest that extra $10 in shoring RB back up
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Jul 26, 2023 17:55
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Holy crap that's wild heh, starting up to 6 WRs? At that point you're elated to have the WR3 on the Falcons cause at least he's technically running routes. Do you get PPR? That at least expands the pool of useful players.
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Jul 26, 2023 18:14
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Leperflesh posted:cool post Yeah all good stuff! I think there is a little more to say on your last point. Which is if you DO really like a guy and he's playing well in limited opportunities but not getting enough run as a starter, he could be a good stash. Maybe he'll win over the coach, or the guy ahead of him will get hurt. Then when every fantasy source is suddenly screaming  NUMBER ONE WAIVER PICKUP MUST ADD LEAGUE WINNER , he's already comfortably on your bench  Obviously most of the time it doesn't pan out and there's a reason the dude was not an early draft pick. But everyone is wrong about football all the time. Last year nobody wanted Josh Jacobs or any Seahawks. Jacobs won people their leagues, and everyone on Seattle massively outperformed their ADP. If you scooped them up at a huge discount cause you liked their talent even on a (supposedly) bad team, you were sitting pretty. I've also been guilty of dumping guys too early. It can take time for these breakouts to happen. If you add a guy and he doesn't instantly perform, but you really believe in him, give it some time.
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Jul 26, 2023 19:14
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Spoeank posted:My home league is collapsing 😢  This would be legit devastating to me. Over time our league has evolved from "uh hey anyone heard of this fantasy football thing?" to a core part of our friend group that we spend an inordinate amount of time (poo poo)talking about for half the year. Not in a hosed up way, we can drop kayfabe and people aren't seriously judging each other over loving fantasy. But we've really bonded over it and it's helped keep friendships intact as people move around and have kids and so on. Our in person draft party weekend is one of the events I most look forward to each year. Would suck to lose this shared thing we have.
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Jul 27, 2023 00:56
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kiimo posted:If I left my home league I'd 100% lose connection to a group of friends probably for life. Fantasy football ties us together and even sometimes manages to get us all together still even though it's dispersed to California, Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Missouri, Oregon and New York and added children. Our first draft the #1 pick was Jamal Anderson before he got over 2000 total yards and we did the draft by hand on paper. The one year I won the league my first two picks were Drew Brees and Marshawn Lynch (I do not remember in which order). I think I also had Aaron Hernandez  I’ve come in second several more times but never returned to the top of the mountain. A lesbian power couple has won like 50% of all league championships between them, it’s honestly embarrassing at this point (not because they’re women, please do not read that into my post, it would be embarrassing to be so massively owned by anybody). They talk IMMENSE amounts of poo poo and pull insane stunts to dunk on of the rest of us that would be at home on The League the tv show. It’s a huge part of the dynamic at this point as we try and fail to knock them off every year. Basically, yeah, you’d think I’d be better at this by now
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Jul 27, 2023 05:29
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I was really into Chig from the Titans as a later round TE flier this year until they signed Nuk. That was such a loving fantasy grenade. Blew up Chig's value. Blew up Treylon Burks' value. Blew up Hopkins' own value since I don't really want any part of the Titans situation. I guess it boosted Tannehill a bit in Superflex???
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Jul 27, 2023 16:27
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 06:35 |
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In this scenario, does the Hurts owner lose the ability to cheese Hurts' keeper timer by dropping and re-adding him because he's trading back and someone else could then snipe him? Sorry, there's a lot of moving parts in your post heh. If that is accurate I don't know if I would do it as the Hurts owner. I am very bearish on Hopkins' prospects on the Titans who I expect to suck rear end this year even with him. So he wouldn't be enough for me to forego another year of Hurts. Basically if I understand you correctly I think we value Hopkins very differently where you view him as a big trade chip and I'm like "whatever". Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, given the posts I just made about how Jacobs and Seahawks won people leagues last year 
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Jul 28, 2023 05:23
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