Climate Change: There are no jobs on a dead planet

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Climate Change: There are no jobs on a dead planet

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

road potato posted:

Do you think there's enough interest in discussing these kind of topics for there to be an urban design/housing/infrastructure thread? I've done some reading inspired by stuff discussed in this thread and I don't know if there's enough interest to make its own thread?

Speaking of posts, would anybody be interested in a probability/decision making under uncertainty thread? Massively relevant to climate change but also rona, etc. Most people, shockingly even in these forums, are terrible at thinking this way.

# ¿ Jan 9, 2022 17:25

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 17, 2024 21:27

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Kaal posted:

According to this website, it seems like something that's fairly feasible. They recommended 200 AH of batteries, a 2000 Watts power inverter, and 400 Watts of Solar Panels to run an induction cooktop. It's about $800 worth of equipment, plus the cooktop.

https://www.thewaywardhome.com/induction-cooktop-for-a-van/

It really seems like this is more trouble than its worth, especially in the winter. We are talking about some fairly low carbon emissions. Propane camping stoves work really well, they seem pretty easy to deal with to me. Personally, I prefer kerosene, but propane is pretty hard to gently caress up.

# ¿ Feb 9, 2022 22:19

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Potato Salad posted:

For the sake of heaven, mods, please do we have to play the game where Thug gets to pretend like they doesn't know exactly what game they are playing with this ceremoniously parsimonious, endless, deliberate misreading of every single post?

Welcome to D&D!

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 22:10

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Thug Lessons posted:

I'd love to see who in the climate community you're talking about that really does think the whole thing is a gigantic underestimate, because as I've said, I have literally never heard it.

You seem to have not heard of a lot of things with recent climate science. I'm not going to dox myself, but former colleagues of mine in climate science and related fields tend to think we are underestimating rapidity and magnitude of changes. We also fairly consistently have underestimated climate change, because the shorter-term feedbacks have been overwhelmingly positive, leading to a tendency to systematically under-estimate.

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 23:13

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Thug Lessons posted:

I've got a better idea. Before you dismiss scientific reports, why don't you dig into them and come up with reasons why it's wrong? Why is it other people's responsibility to come up with in-depth debunks of flippant statements you make against the credibility of specific reports and climate science generally?

This is all "common knowledge" stuff. Everyone else is aware that IPCC and other projections have underestimated change, so I think the onus is on you here to make an effort to educate yourself. We can dig up the reports, but its not worth it when you will move the goalposts, rendering that work pointless. This thread would be a lot better if it wasn't just arguing against crypto-denialism.

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 23:31

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Thug Lessons posted:

Okay, so, your unnamed climate colleagues. Could you, without doxxing yourself, link to some papers, articles, editorials, etc. that they or people they agree with have written that explicate these views? Why do the scientists I've cite disagree with them? What percent of climate scientists agree with them? Why, if they're right, do they fail to make headway within the IPCC or the broader climate climate community, like the people making models? Doesn't this last fact indicate that, in fact, people who feel this way are in the minority? I guess these are rhetorical questions that will go unanswered because "everyone already knows" and I should "educate myself" but, well, I will continue to believe the IPCC and prominent climate scientists over your unnamed colleagues and "common knowledge".

No, because you can do that yourself easily. You are extremely tiresome.

edit: I'll help you out here.
https://lmgtfy.app/?q=climate+change+underestimated+ipcc

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 23:48

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Thug Lessons posted:

So which is it? Are your views based on reasoned evidence from colleagues who work in climate, or are they based on Google searches that turn up results to op-eds like the one I linked above and was savaged when reviewed by actual climate scientists? Is it really that much to ask that you produce a single piece of data to support your views, rather than lmgtfy links and assertions that it's "common knowledge" (despite me linking extensive examples of climate scientists disagreeing with it)?

Both. mother of christ you are annoying. Some op-eds are bad, some are not. Try google scholar:

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=es&as_sdt=0%2C48&q=climate+change+underestimated+feedbacks&btnG=

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Feb 15, 2022

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 23:56

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Conspiratiorist posted:

It's been going on for years.

Can't we just thread ban TL already?

It would be a much better place. There's a lot to discuss about CC and adaptations, and it sucks that this thread is basically devoted to continually pushing back against denialist garbage.

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 20:07

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Demons Under Every Rock: The Ever-Expanding Definition of Climate Denial

By Nordhaus, lmao. The guy with the massive galaxy brain who thinks climate change isn't a big deal because of the time value of money.

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 22:11

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

He does think it's a big deal. That literally the whole point of the entire organization. To find a breakthrough that leads to faster decarbonization.

And BP did the "calculate your carbon footprint" campaign out of genuine concern for the climate. Funny how all of their positions just so happen to be good for the people they get their funding from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Institute#Reception

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Feb 16, 2022

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 22:21

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Kalli posted:

Seeing the synopsis for the episode pop up on twitter did give me a laugh earlier, so maybe it's worth a listen

"Alarmism." Always my favorite. If you aren't alarmed you are either misinformed or dishonest.

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 22:58

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

It comes across as a form of gaslighting: post in an "adult in the room" tone, use big words, cherrypick evidence you like and ignore or dismiss the stuff you don't like, etc. all the while claiming that it's actually your opponent who is anti-science.

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 18:46

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Harold Fjord posted:

No. He's on the same page with us. Though I understand the mix up as it has also happened to me

Thats what I get for posting on no sleep. Thorns, thugs, very similar.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 00:11

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Eddy-Baby posted:

In the US, the present government was elected on a platform of tackling climate change. The net zero goal by 2050 is shared by the UK. Obviously, they will fail at these goals, but they have made the commitments, so your task is not so much to change government policy in the strategic sense but to foster outrage at the vast gap between those declared policies and reality. You have allies in this; anyone who voted for climate reasons is a potential supporter. The scientists, the UN, are now unequivocally supporting you. Look at this nerd, maybe there is a way to help him and his group get the message out. Civil resistance and disobedience is the best you can do within the sphere of nonviolence.

The Biden administration has literally opened up more drilling. They are not making these promises in good faith.

# ¿ Apr 11, 2022 15:17

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Electric Wrigglies posted:

Probably one of the most effective is mandatory superannuation combined with it being portable like it is in Australia. Voting with your life savings does change behaviors!

I work in private sector and the big super funds absolutely do challenge and validate measures towards climate, people trafficking, etc if they have got money invested in you. As they are also some of the cheapest sources of capital, it means that companies do go along with the compliance costs that come with this. As both the super fund and the business are after outcomes rather than funding a cottage industry, the compliance activities tends to be sufficient rather than needlessly laborious.

Saying that, I take a dim view on anyone that argues against voting. Literally spent more effort than it takes to vote (in a sensible place with straight forward voting like Aus) on arguing against it. And even in Australia you don't have to vote. You are quite legally entitled to show up, get your name marked off the election roll, receive you ballot paper and put it in the box unmarked - job done.

Revolutions don't have predictable results. Libya is enjoying a revolution right now. Having the time of its life now that it finally played the secret card that wins at solving problems.

I'm not going to say "don't vote," but there is zero chance that the current liberal capitalist system will effectively fight climate change. The scale of changes that need to be done are so enormous that it just about constitutes a revolution in itself - a total change of how we produce, our productive relations, and our lives. The whole "voting" thing isn't going great right now, and it won't improve. Rolling the dice on a revolution is something that makes sense at this point.

# ¿ Jul 7, 2022 16:05

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

CommieGIR posted:

Barring something more major happening, betting on a revolution is as unlikely as capitalism saving us from itself.

Major things are happening on the political front, but the outcome looks to be more along the lines of fascism. There's good signs of rapidly increasing worker solidarity though. A left revolution is something that would only happen on a longer horizon, probably after things have effectively balkanized. Still, the drop in production from that kind of chaos could be counted as a Pyrrhic victory.

# ¿ Jul 7, 2022 16:24

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

So basically rich farmers don't give a gently caress and would rather act like children while loving over children than pay a bit more for alternatives.

Rich farmers are just the whiniest bitches the world over, even by rich people standards. The worst, however, are ranchers who feel entitled to overgraze on public land for free.

# ¿ Jul 13, 2022 00:42

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Sharkie posted:

SUVs didn't exist in 1776 but otherwise

The SUV has always existed in the American heart.

# ¿ Jul 18, 2022 02:23

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

How are u posted:

What do you mean by assurance, and what would that look like to you?

Accountability that it actually will happen, I would guess.

# ¿ Aug 9, 2022 15:25

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

MightyBigMinus posted:

unless you count waste-heat, which you should

No you shouldn't lol, that's not relevant for the climate as a whole. The amount of energy is many orders of magnitude smaller than what matters on a global scale. Local effects on water temp, sure, but that's it.

This is just like the climate change deniers who think the world is getting warmer because there's more geothermal heat.

# ¿ Aug 14, 2022 15:34

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Have the Germans finally decided to stop punching themselves in the balls?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2022 18:45

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Failed Imagineer posted:

This will be a sea-change in the German porn industry.

But anyway, I really hope this is the case

They're really going to eat poo poo if they walk this back. :metis:

# ¿ Aug 17, 2022 15:16

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Eric Cantonese posted:

So we're basically doomed unless we somehow get enlightened dictatorships installed all around the world.

Unironically, capitalism needs to end. There is no hope for a meaningful solution under capitalist liberal democracies, because it would be against the interests of the capitalist class. Simple as.

# ¿ Aug 17, 2022 15:37

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

TheBlackVegetable posted:

Is anyone else just of the assumption that the world governments generally know and accept it's all going to go down, billions are going to die, and we can't fix it within the system or hope to change the system itself - so the actions they do take are with the goal of just persevering something, anything, with themselves still in some position of power?

Sure, we're falling without a parachute or backup, but if we brace ourselves just right and aim at just the right angle and get real drat lucky, maybe we won't smash every single bone in our body, and maybe we'll rupture just one lung and maybe come out of this just quadriplegic instead of a sticky red stain on the ground?

I think they know on some level, like many people here do, but there's a lot of cognitive dissonance going on.

# ¿ Aug 18, 2022 14:30

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

How are u posted:

Am I just reading your posts wrong or were you implying that the only enforcement mechanism you can envision involves violence?

Any solution that isn't personal responsibility implies the threat of violence or loss of freedom.

# ¿ Aug 19, 2022 23:49

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Enjoy posted:

There will be no revolution. Revolutions require self-discipline and the acceptance of privation. Leftists are mostly unable to even give up paying for sentient beings to be bred, tortured and killed in greenhouse gas factories. How can such people be expected to win a revolution?

Just because people don't share your moral framework doesn't mean they can't be effective leftists. (I'm vegan FWIW)

# ¿ Aug 20, 2022 00:06

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Industrial meat production has been a disaster, no argument. Meat is too important of a part of too many cultures to go away completely. Instead, we should aim for de-industrializing meat production, with meat going back to its former place throughout agricultural history of being a very small part of people's diet.

With the price of beef going through the loving roof as conditions degrade, people's meat consumption will naturally slow down. It would be a lot better to get ahead of further damage by forcing the meat industry to pay for their negative externalities, but lol that won't ever happen.

# ¿ Aug 21, 2022 17:15

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

HookedOnChthonics posted:

There are some applications where I think we�re completely already �there� in terms of having easy 1:1 replacements that would satisfy most meat-eaters�Sweet Earth�s chicken products, Field Roast sausage and chorizo, Gardein fried fish filets, crab cakes, and chicken nuggets, Beyond burgers, sausages, and jerky�if someone handed you a loaded sandwich containing these rather than meat at a cookout, it�s possible that you would notice if you�re paying attention but any objection would be patently ridiculous, they�re just as good. Nowadays you can go 100% vegan and still be a tendies-and-burgs goblin person, it rules.

I'm more of a tendies-and-burgs goblin person now than I was when I ate meat. Typical burger meat, processed chicken, etc, is low quality and just does not taste good to me, but the processed fake meats all taste pretty good.

Pro-tip: Try pizza with cashew "ricotta" or "mozarella", which you can make at home very easily. It makes you feel a lot less gross than regular pizza, and lets other good ingredients shine through better.

But yeah, I totally agree that veganism for everyone is completely unrealistic and dumb, but industrial production of low-quality meat could be taken up by Beyond Beef & friends. I think most people would prefer it if they didn't know they are supposed to hate it because its gay vegan food.

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Aug 21, 2022

# ¿ Aug 21, 2022 21:35

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Digamma-F-Wau posted:

Hasn't Bison farming been found to have the potential to have a less drastic effect on the environment than Cow farming in America, due to Bison being evolved to actually live here among other things? Finding a way to replace beef with bison in people's diets could be a way to go about things.

Yeah, bison do nowhere near the soil/vegetation damage that cows do grazing (although not much beef comes from open western rangeland anymore).

From what I hear, it hasn't caught on because bison are more dangerous than cows and ranchers are whiny entitled cowards.

# ¿ Aug 31, 2022 00:13

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

If you think that's bad wait till you hear about the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and this thing called the marine-ice sheet instability.

# ¿ Aug 31, 2022 14:41

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

smug n stuff posted:

The wildest claim: when you piss after consuming coke, not all of it is metabolized, and some gets into water sources, where it apparently is doing damage to some species of eels, shellfish, and sea urchins.

We're already killing them with microplastics and climate change. At least with the coke they're having a good time.

# ¿ Sep 15, 2022 22:21

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

blooddasbootcelery posted:

Government can do a lot to build climate resilient neighborhoods via land permits....

Government could do a lot of things, but they won't under our current political-economic system. It's been kind of a running theme dealing with this whole climate/ecological collapse issue.

# ¿ Oct 9, 2022 14:59

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

There's been a ton of progress in the last decade. I still think it's a hard sell to hit 1.5/2C but we've certainly avoided a mad max apocalyptic hellscape.

https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1585793168020316160?s=20&t=teOuauykH7ua7G48cxue0g

There has not "been a ton of progress in the past decade." A completely delusional statement. It's even contradicted by the UN report. CO2 output increased the whole time except for the brief blip during lockdowns.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/new-maps-of-ancient-warming-reveal-strong-response-to-carbon-dioxide/

Also some new work on paleoclimate CO2 sensitivity. Turns out it was higher than thought (~6.7 +- 2.5 C per doubling) during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum about 30Mya, which was probably triggered by magma infiltrating oil-bearing sediment. Among other things, it points to greater CO2 sensitivity at higher CO2, which is something we should probably keep in mind as we debate whether this is a big deal or if we are making progress (we aren't).

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Oct 28, 2022

# ¿ Oct 28, 2022 14:42

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Slow News Day posted:

Yeah I was wondering when this article was going to be posted in this thread.

Basically, Wallace-Wells is trying real hard to put a positive spin on what is an increasingly terrifying situation. The manner in which he is doing it is:

a) flawed: focuses too much on linear models, whereas the paleoclimate record is all about non-linear changes (brought on by so-called "tipping points"),
b) way too small in scope: no mention of glacier melts and only a passing mention � inside an image caption � of rising ocean temperatures, and,
c) human-centric: nothing about other species except when it relates directly to people, i.e. "threatening ocean biodiversity and affecting the protein supply for hundreds of millions of people", and a few plants that have been hyped up as "sustainable supercrops" which is utterly laughable

It also feels disjointed and self-contradictory. He first goes "yeah things are bad but they aren't as bad as our worst predictions!" and then he quotes a whole bunch of experts who are like "things are absolutely terrible and they are getting more terrible everyday". He goes "we have made progress!" and then he lists climate disaster after climate disaster and goes "I am alarmed and so should you be!"

There's really only one proper response to the above:

This is the liberal response to climate change. As it becomes increasingly horrifying, the objective reality can't be fully denied, but the subjective feeling of it can be. This must be done, otherwise the only answer is large, sweeping changes to politics and economic production and allocation - which is antithetical to the entire ideology of comfortable liberals. Meanwhile, nothing meaningful happens as the powerful continue to drive humanity and the planet off a cliff.

# ¿ Oct 28, 2022 16:59

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

The IPCC includes feedback effects in their estimates.

Any warming is or at least in the timescales we've done in it - under a Century - is going to be bad. The 1.5/2C threshold was designed in a way we thought this was the maximum ability for humanity to adjust.

It looks like we're probably going to miss that and it sucks yet that is quite far from the end of the world. If you live in a temperate climate not directly next to a large body of water, it might not matter much but if you are poor subsistence farmer with a home next to the ocean in tropical region things are going to definitely get dicey. How humanity reacts is going to be way important than how our climate changes.

This is completely untrue. The decline of coal replaced with Natural Gas and Renewables along with electric vehicles is a huge big deal.

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1585495842487603200?s=20&t=eYFCYpi9etVZLI9WHfq3iw

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1585693861396914176?s=20&t=eYFCYpi9etVZLI9WHfq3iw

They �include feedbacks� but lol that you think those are know with any degree of certainty. We don�t know what we don�t know. You especially don�t know what you don�t know, because you don�t even know that.

I repeat that CO2 emissions are increasing. That�s the bottom line. We are failing. You are delusional if you think otherwise, just because some greenwashing PMCs are jerking themselves off because they think they are helping.

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 02:30 on Oct 29, 2022

# ¿ Oct 29, 2022 02:27

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Electric Wrigglies posted:

This is literally the line denialists use to deny the science. The whole point of the IPCC work is that while you are technically true (that being the best kind of true) that we don't know what we don't know (as is pointed out by denialists that unknown stabilising loops may prevent the climate temp going beyond 1.5 deg - which we all agree is absurd)

Just because it sounds vaguely similar doesn't mean its anti-science. I literally have a PhD in a field closely related to climatology. I know what I am talking about here.

quote:

the science done suggests with confidence the outcomes as contained in the IPCC reports - drastically better or worse being unlikely.

That's not really something we can say with any certainty - and the tail risks are where the worst outcomes are. Realistic systems like these have "fat tails" where there is increased probability of extreme events.

"Tipping points" are a huge topic in climate research for a reason, because that is where the real uncertainty over the longer term is. Systems like the Earth are complex, and a perturbed stable regime can shift into a new, very different stable regime. We cannot constrain the physics or initial/boundary conditions well enough to know when these transitions can happen

We don't even know what all of these might be, so our estimate of apocalypic tail risk is much more uncertain than in the bulk. Climate change has been small so far, compared to what it will be. Models are more reliable in this situation because they don't need to extrapolate as much. This is not true of trying to predict the climate in 2080. Paleoclimate is probably the best empirical evidence we have of these situations, and there's enough there to show we should be cautious, and not be overconfident. We do not want to gently caress this up.

Owling Howl posted:

And so far our predictions have broadly been pretty accurate.

IPCC reports systematically underestimate climate risk. This is well-known.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/why-even-scientists-underestimate-climate-change
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05243-6

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Oct 29, 2022

# ¿ Oct 29, 2022 16:11

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

A big flaming stink posted:

Emissions are still increasing! It doesn't loving matter if those emissions are from natural gas if they're still going up you obtuse weirdo!

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

It�s the thought that counts

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Oct 30, 2022 02:43

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Enjoy posted:

What decline of coal?

https://www.mining-technology.com/comment/global-coal-production/

It's declined as a share though, but natural gas increased even more. This is a good thing because :centrism:

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 15:09 on Oct 30, 2022

# ¿ Oct 30, 2022 15:06

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

When you think about it, this thread is really a microcosm of the climate crisis, in that both it and the world are doomed from lazy posters/governments.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Nov 21, 2022 17:03

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 17, 2024 21:27

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

https://twitter.com/DavidZipper/status/1600499883542302720
Turns out making our beloved giant toddler-smashers electric might not be a huge environmental win.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Dec 8, 2022 17:08

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Climate Change: There are no jobs on a dead planet

«‹›3 »