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The "Trump is in the pocket of Russia" thing is very cool because it speaks directly to the "insane conspiracy theory"part of his base, which is a lot of them It won't get literally any of them to vote for Hillary, but i do think it could make a lot of them stay home on election day
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Aug 15, 2016 06:17
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We still don't know what crazy skeletons will be dredged up from Trumps closet because everyone is content to let him keep kicking his own rear end.
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Aug 15, 2016 06:19
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Hodgepodge posted:Trump also had massive unfavourables going into all this. After a solid half a year of horrible poo poo that would have been gaffes outside of the Republican primary and election gaffes, no one is going to suddenly decide they like Trump if he calms down and manages to stay on his repugnant as gently caress message just because he manages to not poo poo himself in process of articulating it.
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Aug 15, 2016 06:19
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Ghetto Prince posted:We still don't know what crazy skeletons will be dredged up from Trumps closet because everyone is content to let him keep kicking his own rear end. It's a great strategy provided he doesn't care about winning, but does want to make it out without having his past and personal fortune investigated too closely
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Aug 15, 2016 06:20
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sarmhan posted:The polls have been consistently awful for Trump for the last 2 weeks so the models are converging. The polls-plus is just super conservative. Yeah, even at 75% I'd guess the polls-plus model is getting nearish to its reasonable maximum this far out from the election. Basically who knows what might happen between now and November, sort of thing. CelestialScribe posted:She's going to lose North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. What polls are you un-skewing to get this? Or are you just certain that Trump's campaign will somehow turn around in the next few months? Anyway, I'll counter your 270-to-win map with this one, I suppose. Bad Moon posted:My mother, who is a racist old korean lady who is slightly to the right of Atilla the Hun and has hated the Clintons since the 90s, pretty much went "welp gently caress that guy guess I'm voting Hilary" when I had a conversation about with her about Trump's ties to Putin who she hates even more. This story made me very happy. Ditocoaf fucked around with this message at 06:27 on Aug 15, 2016 |
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Aug 15, 2016 06:20
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Ciaphas posted:I think I kind of half get it from context but can anyone tell me what "arzy" means or refers to? Freaking out that a candidate is going to lose at any mention of any negative news about said candidate, or any poll that shows a slight movement in the wrong direction. Obama's 08 manager David Plouffe calls this "bedwetting" which is a little more evocative.
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Aug 15, 2016 06:24
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Ciaphas posted:I think I kind of half get it from context but can anyone tell me what "arzy" means or refers to? What Antti said, plus: It's named after a guy famous for arzying during the 2008 and 2012 election: http://forums.somethingawful.com/dictionary.php?act=3&topicid=2431
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Aug 15, 2016 06:28
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Hillary is up by so much that my dad finally stopped Arzying and started discussing taking back the senate, and how many House seats we might be able to take.
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Aug 15, 2016 07:01
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Combed Thunderclap posted:The new NYT story is pretty tame, we already knew Manafort worked in the Ukrainian sphere when its government was a Russian puppet, which automatically puts you a few degrees of influence away from Putin. The tweets promising more dirt in that direction might get some of the super paranoid patriots to consider voting Johnson instead, but it seems unlikely to sway the minds of those already solidly supporting Trump, who genuinely want someone like Putin in power anyway. From a Paul Manafort side this is not remotely tame because these allegations might carry any number of serious charges coming with them. From Trump's side he's left with a number of very bad options ranging from firing Manafort and dealing with whatever fallout comes with making the worse possible choice to replace him or not firing him and magnifying a deeply unpopular narrative and/or proving that he's unable to manage personnel in a remotely presidential manner. Best case this is basically going to flush another week down the trump toilet that he's not getting back.
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Aug 15, 2016 07:30
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FlamingLiberal posted:Maybe, but now that we're in actual election season more people are paying attention to this stuff than before Yeah, but there's no one who doesn't know who Trump is. Both his initial success and his terrible favourability with the nation as a whole in the primaries were the result of his celebrity having already firmly defined him in popular consciousness. It also means that even though people might not have been paying attention to politics, they've been aware that celebrity Donald Trump has been making headlines saying entertainingly crazy poo poo for a good nine months and the context just happened to be politics. They weren't paying attention to politics, but that doesn't matter so much because news about Trump is celebrity news and reaches people even (or maybe especially) if they won't be paying attention to politics at all or voting in the election.
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Aug 15, 2016 07:42
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Bad Moon posted:My mother, who is a racist old korean lady who is slightly to the right of Atilla the Hun and has hated the Clintons since the 90s, pretty much went "welp gently caress that guy guess I'm voting Hilary" when I had a conversation about with her about Trump's ties to Putin who she hates even more. And on the other side of the aisle you've got my dad, a white southern man who's voted Republican since 1980 but with a mild libertarian streak that amounts to not caring one way or the other about gay marriage, abortion, or really any issue connected with religion. When I talked with him early on during the primary season, he hated Trump, balked at the idea of his Muslim immigration ban, and said that if Trump won he'd probably vote third party (and, incidentally, he said that Trump was a joke candidate that the mainstream media's only paying so much attention to to make Republicans look bad). Last week, I talked with him about politics and this election seems to have completely broken his brain. Now his #1 issue is keeping Muslims out of the country because of the risk of ISIS sleeper agents and because they'll outbreed us and take over. He recognizes that Trump is an idiot, but he's justifying voting for him because "we have checks and balances to keep the president from doing anything too stupid" and he relishes the idea of the federal government grinding to a halt under Trump's incompetent administration because he hates the government. I told him about the ties with Putin and, deflecting the issue, he defended Putin saying something along the lines of "they need a strongman over there in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, authoritarianism is the type of government that works best with those people." 
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Aug 15, 2016 08:32
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Well, now you've made me sad again. Stories of opinionated parents affect me because my parents' opinions are basicaly just very mild versions of my own. They finally came around to my "gently caress the police" opinion this year, the one issue where we fundamentally disagreed for the last decade, by admitting "too many police departments have a significant culture problem". Yawwn. My parents are too good.
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Aug 15, 2016 08:53
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Pakled posted:And on the other side of the aisle you've got my dad, a white southern man who's voted Republican since 1980 but with a mild libertarian streak that amounts to not caring one way or the other about gay marriage, abortion, or really any issue connected with religion. When I talked with him early on during the primary season, he hated Trump, balked at the idea of his Muslim immigration ban, and said that if Trump won he'd probably vote third party (and, incidentally, he said that Trump was a joke candidate that the mainstream media's only paying so much attention to to make Republicans look bad). Last week, I talked with him about politics and this election seems to have completely broken his brain. Now his #1 issue is keeping Muslims out of the country because of the risk of ISIS sleeper agents and because they'll outbreed us and take over. He recognizes that Trump is an idiot, but he's justifying voting for him because "we have checks and balances to keep the president from doing anything too stupid" and he relishes the idea of the federal government grinding to a halt under Trump's incompetent administration because he hates the government. I told him about the ties with Putin and, deflecting the issue, he defended Putin saying something along the lines of "they need a strongman over there in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, authoritarianism is the type of government that works best with those people." He's a gop-first kind of dude for sure. Party first!!
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Aug 15, 2016 09:06
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Pakled posted:And on the other side of the aisle you've got my dad, a white southern man who's voted Republican since 1980 but with a mild libertarian streak that amounts to not caring one way or the other about gay marriage, abortion, or really any issue connected with religion. When I talked with him early on during the primary season, he hated Trump, balked at the idea of his Muslim immigration ban, and said that if Trump won he'd probably vote third party (and, incidentally, he said that Trump was a joke candidate that the mainstream media's only paying so much attention to to make Republicans look bad). Last week, I talked with him about politics and this election seems to have completely broken his brain. Now his #1 issue is keeping Muslims out of the country because of the risk of ISIS sleeper agents and because they'll outbreed us and take over. He recognizes that Trump is an idiot, but he's justifying voting for him because "we have checks and balances to keep the president from doing anything too stupid" and he relishes the idea of the federal government grinding to a halt under Trump's incompetent administration because he hates the government. I told him about the ties with Putin and, deflecting the issue, he defended Putin saying something along the lines of "they need a strongman over there in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, authoritarianism is the type of government that works best with those people."
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Aug 15, 2016 09:08
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Ditocoaf posted:Well, now you've made me sad again. After my dad gets a couple drinks in him he'll let you know that the Bush presidency should've ended with mass hangings on the White House lawn. His big post-retirement hobby is alienating as many people he knows as possible on facebook.
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Aug 15, 2016 09:22
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Kilroy posted:You should take a road trip to the Grand Canyon with him and have a long talk about what it means to be an American and then push him off a cliff. Dad, I want you to know that I love you. But this is for the greater good of the country you claim to love. In all seriousness, I am sorry to hear that your father is like that. Maybe he will calm down eventually...
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Aug 15, 2016 09:34
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Kilroy posted:You should take a road trip to the Grand Canyon with him and have a long talk about what it means to be an American and then push him off a cliff. Operation Galt's Gulch is a go.
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Aug 15, 2016 10:01
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axeil posted:I'm an athiest and if ISIS or someone attacked the Vatican I'd be 100% for violent intervention. The Pope is cool, even if we don't agree on everything. Do you think our drones are currently flying around and dropping birthday cakes and presents?
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Aug 15, 2016 10:04
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Mel Mudkiper posted:I find it interesting on 538 the Predicted Polls and Now-Cast are within a point of each other and the Polls-plus is totally broken This is just a reflection of how Trump is running out of time to turn the ship around. Polls-Plus assumes that the results will "level off" just as a function of time and goldfish-memory, but if Trump keeps making unforced errors, well, even a goldfish will remember what happened in October.
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Aug 15, 2016 10:43
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gfsincere posted:Do you think our drones are currently flying around and dropping birthday cakes and presents? Why else would we be sending them to all the weddings?
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Aug 15, 2016 10:46
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Obscure question: are there any animals that are buried in Arlington? Are there any Presidential pets, specifically, buried there?
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Aug 15, 2016 10:51
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Does anyone remember an article from the last 1-3 years about uninsured people in Kansas who were slowly dying from illnesses that could be easily treated who were angry that they couldn't get benefits from the system that they were sure gave assistance to other people?
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Aug 15, 2016 10:53
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theflyingorc posted:The "Trump is in the pocket of Russia" thing is very cool because it speaks directly to the "insane conspiracy theory"part of his base, which is a lot of them You can't disprove a negative, and for the world's most prominent birther it's ironic.
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Aug 15, 2016 10:56
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gradenko_2000 posted:Obscure question: are there any animals that are buried in Arlington? Are there any Presidential pets, specifically, buried there? You aren't allowed to bury animals in Arlington. Now, have you heard about this bear...
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Aug 15, 2016 11:01
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Antti posted:You aren't allowed to bury animals in Arlington. Antti posted:Now, have you heard about this bear... 
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Aug 15, 2016 11:03
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Ciaphas posted:I think I kind of half get it from context but can anyone tell me what "arzy" means or refers to? Arzy was a poster who would regularly experience huge meltdowns throughout the election cycle over what was often inconsequential poo poo, it basically means over-speculating or over-panicking in an election thread http://forums.somethingawful.com/dictionary.php?act=3&topicid=2431
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Aug 15, 2016 11:10
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QuarkJets posted:Arzy was a poster who would regularly experience huge meltdowns throughout the election cycle over what was often inconsequential poo poo, it basically means over-speculating or over-panicking in an election thread He also worked in the finance industry but couldn't interpret a chart showing quartiles.
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Aug 15, 2016 11:35
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Solkanar512 posted:He also worked in the finance industry but couldn't interpret a chart showing quartiles. And didn't understand income tax brackets.
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Aug 15, 2016 12:01
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Bueno Papi posted:And didn't understand income tax brackets. He was a special boy
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Aug 15, 2016 12:55
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CelestialScribe posted:She is not going to win all 50 states. Jesus Christ. hey guys maybe we should start ignoring the dumb australian that believes trump could lose ga and at the same time win fl, nc, and oh.
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Aug 15, 2016 13:03
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Hillary Clinton will win exactly as many electoral votes as the illuminati allows.
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Aug 15, 2016 13:06
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gradenko_2000 posted:Obscure question: are there any animals that are buried in Arlington? Are there any Presidential pets, specifically, buried there? Not sure about pets at Arlington, but I know specifically that Socks the Cat was cremated and his ashes are kept at the Clinton Presidential Museum.
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Aug 15, 2016 13:07
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sudo rm -rf posted:hey guys maybe we should start ignoring the dumb australian that believes trump could lose ga and at the same time win fl, nc, and oh. That's not what I meant. I meant "anything else" regarding a 50-state strategy.
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Aug 15, 2016 13:07
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If that LA Times poll has her up by 4 for the last couple days, I suspect we're going to see some outsize leads from other polls later this week. Maybe a +20 in store, heh.
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Aug 15, 2016 13:10
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https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/765156672310566912 manafort's response to the Ukraine money thing. it's what you'd expect
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Aug 15, 2016 13:12
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gradenko_2000 posted:Obscure question: are there any animals that are buried in Arlington? Are there any Presidential pets, specifically, buried there? apparently not: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...fghanistan.html Though animals may have been buried there pre-civil-war.
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Aug 15, 2016 13:14
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50-state strategy doesn't mean you expect to win all 50 states. It means you place groundwork everywhere, you plant the seeds. Mighty Morphin Power Rangers S1 E41 Rita's Seed of Evil
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Aug 15, 2016 13:17
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I would totally vote for a Rita Repulsa ticket.
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Aug 15, 2016 13:30
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/765156672310566912
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Aug 15, 2016 13:31
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/765156672310566912 Crooked Paul! Sad!
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Aug 15, 2016 13:33
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