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Nessus posted:One guess is Marla Maples. She was also on those forms and if she said "Yes, I release them" I believe the Donald can't do poo poo nor dick about it, at least not in a timeframe of "before the election." Marla Maples, savior of the republic.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:02
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punk rebel ecks posted:Dems got their work cut out for them to convince the younger crowd to vote for Hillary. September 19th, that's before even the debate, right?
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Oct 3, 2016 06:02
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moebius2778 posted:It's basically the Bayesian thing of updating your beliefs about the world based on your initial beliefs about the world + the data you observed. Thank you, this was quite informative and much easier to understand than the Ipsos write-up. I really need to bone up on my Bayesian probability.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:02
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punk rebel ecks posted:Dems got their work cut out for them to convince the younger crowd to vote for Hillary. "Millennial Voters May Cost Hillary Clinton The Election." Uh...I guess as opposed to the other generations. For instance, the ones that will vote for Donald Trump. As in every generation besides millennials. Also, the Atlantic should toxx and post a map.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:04
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boner confessor posted:you can write whatever you want on an envelope for a return address, and then just mail it from a collection box in that area as a point of trivia, the only building in the us which has its own zip code is the empire state building. so if you drop a letter in a box on the street outside of trump tower, or mail something from a box inside of trump tower, it would be the same to the postal service
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Oct 3, 2016 06:05
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Qwazes posted:I think Hillary's going to win and win handily, but she's ahead by about 5 points, not 30. Polls where she's losing do exist. This is far from locked down. I wish RCP didn't use the LA Times poll in their aggregate because it's so loving bonkers, like showing Trump at 19-20% with African Americans because the one black guy in it likes Trump. Covok posted:If anyone wants to aryz, apparently assange is still doing the drop. Just not on a balcony. I guess he was afraid someone was going to shoot him? That's too reasonable. He's probably afraid the US would sent a Helicopter overhead and have some SEALs drop down and grab him then take off with him to never be seen again.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:05
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Night10194 posted:That was published September 19th. PPP's polling on the debate said it made like 44% of the millennials watching more likely to vote for her. I don't think this is one to worry about too much. Great thing to point out. A lot REALLY rested on that first debate. Thank god for Trump's incompetence. Epic High Five posted:Obama won bigly in 2012 despite white Millennials going for Romney by like +10. They're an important bloc, but not a kingmaker because a huge chunk of them are still in the 18-24 bloc that never loving shows up. Millenials are split like 50/50 when it comes to white vs non-white. Epic High Five posted:Is there data showing that she's down significantly among minority Millennials? GalacticAcid posted:"Millennial Voters May Cost Hillary Clinton The Election." This is VERY true.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:07
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lozzle posted:Yes I too trust the predictive power of nebulous speculation over scientific polling and statistical models. Tell that to those who trusted the Brexit polling!
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Oct 3, 2016 06:09
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punk rebel ecks posted:Great thing to point out. A lot REALLY rested on that first debate. Thank god for Trump's incompetence. I don't care how they voted in the primary, I care how they plan on voting now.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:09
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punk rebel ecks posted:Minority Millennials overwhelmingly didn't vote for Hillary. Except for blacks who voted mostly for Bernie but it wasn't a total blowout. Though the younger they got, the more the gap widen. There is a general distaste for establishment parties in general amongst the youth. Good thing she's running against the reanimated corpse of George Wallace and not Bernie then.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:09
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NaanViolence posted:Tell that to those who trusted the Brexit polling! British polling is significantly less accurate than American.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:10
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Night10194 posted:British polling is significantly less accurate than American. And also polls are not literally infallible.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:10
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Also if the US was as white as the UK is, Trump would be +10 right now
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Oct 3, 2016 06:12
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lozzle posted:Good thing she's running against the reanimated corpse of George Wallace and not Bernie then. You are tainting George Wallace's name. Also there is still, unfortunately, the third party vote. Luckily minorities aren't too in favor of libertarianism.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:12
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NaanViolence posted:Tell that to those who trusted the Brexit polling! Brexit polling was a lot closer than current US presidential election, even a month out, and even up to the very day of the referendum, the polls continued to move back and forth.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:14
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boner confessor posted:you can write whatever you want on an envelope for a return address, and then just mail it from a collection box in that area Note: I do not recommend scamming the mail system, because if you get caught you will get turbofucked. Postal Inspectors do not gently caress around.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:14
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punk rebel ecks posted:You are tainting George Wallace's name. Dumb white millenials who supported Sanders but are now planning to vote for Gary Johnson are exactly the dumb white millenials who never loving vote anyways.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:15
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Pakled posted:Brexit polling was a lot closer than current US presidential election, even a month out, and even up to the very day of the referendum, the polls continued to move back and forth. Yeah. The thing about the Brexit vote is that people were writing off the polls and (for some absolutely insane reason) putting more trust in betting markets and the stock market. The actual polls showed a tight race and movement towards Leave.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:15
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lozzle posted:Dumb white millenials who supported Sanders but are now planning to vote for Gary Johnson are exactly the dumb white millenials who never loving vote anyways. Thinking of it, it is likely that a lot of the people voting Johnson never cared for Sanders or Hillary, but are either disenfranchised Republicans or straight shoot libertarians or "centrists". Though I recall half of Johnson's voters "lean Democrat", but still...
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Oct 3, 2016 06:16
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lozzle posted:Dumb white millenials who supported Sanders but are now planning to vote for Gary Johnson are exactly the dumb white millenials who never loving vote anyways. And when they do, they don't vote Democrat There seems to be this universal belief that Millennials are, as a whole, very liberal, but it's mostly false. We're just more diverse, so unlike with GenX and the Boomers, our lovely FYGM white people aren't as prominent. "Unhappy with Trump, so voting Johnson" isn't someone who has ever been factored into the Clinton Calculus for where she stands.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:17
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punk rebel ecks posted:Thinking of it, it is likely that a lot of the people voting Johnson never cared for Sanders or Hillary, but are either disenfranchised Republicans or straight shoot libertarians or "centrists". Though I recall half of Johnson's voters "lean Democrat", but still... Pothead Who Is Racist. 
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Oct 3, 2016 06:20
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Epic High Five posted:And when they do, they don't vote Democrat I attest to this. The whites are SLIGHTLY less racist than their parents. And they are just as against
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Oct 3, 2016 06:22
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Given that race, gender, age, education, income, etc. are all pretty good predictors for how someone is going to vote, you should probably consider if polls are actually providing any new information. Or, if through repeated sampling they are merely zeroing on a mean that could fairly easily be calculated through other methods.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:35
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lozzle posted:Trump will cut taxes so hard that the IRS will be paying him. You know, in a nutty way that's what will automatically happen if he becomes POTUS.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:37
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Simplex posted:Given that race, gender, age, education, income, etc. are all pretty good predictors for how someone is going to vote, you should probably consider if polls are actually providing any new information. Or, if through repeated sampling they are merely zeroing on a mean that could fairly easily be calculated through other methods. Historically polls have been a good way to predict elections.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:45
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Simplex posted:Given that race, gender, age, education, income, etc. are all pretty good predictors for how someone is going to vote, you should probably consider if polls are actually providing any new information. Or, if through repeated sampling they are merely zeroing on a mean that could fairly easily be calculated through other methods. polls are good for measuring the impact of non-demographic effects like, say, a terrible gaffe in a normal election or the insanity of trump in this one
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Oct 3, 2016 06:53
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How come whenever Hillary is doing well, and in this case doing the best she has during the entire campaign aside from the DNC, the hand wringers suddenly come out the wood work?
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Oct 3, 2016 06:58
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Using demographics only really only works if there are two candidates and they're both generic 'perfectly spherical cow' candidates. That's rarely the case. Look at the 2010 Illinois Senate race for a great example of how going on demographics alone can fail you.
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Oct 3, 2016 06:59
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:How come whenever Hillary is doing well, and in this case doing the best she has during the entire campaign aside from the DNC, the hand wringers suddenly come out the wood work? A nonzero chance of Donald Trump becoming president. It's like Hans Olo said, you can't get cocky. (Why are Britpolls worse than American ones?)
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Oct 3, 2016 07:09
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Guess we know that Baron was the one who sent the NYT the tax returns. Either that, or he's not been grounded and barred from family photos but is instead to busy saving the world with Cyber to take a family picture.
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Oct 3, 2016 07:12
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Bushiz posted:Tiffany probably only has a pittance in the will anyway, and lord knows what the actual Trump Family Financials look like. The tell-all would be a guaranteed bestseller and could launch her a career as a pundit. I'm really betting that Tiffany is Marla Maples' proxy. Bad Moon posted:Goddamn, when Hillary and her team were doing their oppo research they must have thought "how the hell are we going to get through all this, it's all kill shot material each as awful and damning as the last" Every day of October is going to be an October Surprise for Trump. Dude avoid getting shock white hair from the stress. Good for him. Mr Interweb posted:Another thing that's been bugging me: Trump and his minions keep saying that he released some of financial documents that allegedly show more information that tax returns would. If that's the case, then what would be the worry about releasing his tax returns? If he released financial docs to the Federal Election Commission and it didn't fully disclose the big loving loss on his tax returns or he actually falsified information to hide that fact, isn't that a federal crime? Nessus posted:One guess is Marla Maples. She was also on those forms and if she said "Yes, I release them" I believe the Donald can't do poo poo nor dick about it, at least not in a timeframe of "before the election." She also had mentioned about loving over Trump if he ever ran for president and expose him for being a fraud. He quickly pounced his legal team on her to shut her up, but it could be her, or, as I said earlier, her daughter Tiffany. Gyges posted:Guess we know that Baron was the one who sent the NYT the tax returns. Either that, or he's not been grounded and barred from family photos but is instead to busy saving the world with Cyber to take a family picture. THE Cyber.
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Oct 3, 2016 07:15
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Hmmm interesting point he's not owned... he's not owned
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Oct 3, 2016 07:21
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 Trump's implosion has been way too funny.
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Oct 3, 2016 07:22
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Civilized Fishbot posted:polls are good for measuring the impact of non-demographic effects like, say, a terrible gaffe in a normal election or the insanity of trump in this one Maybe, but that type of thing tends to be like the convention bounce where it tails off over time. I think polls are useful for some things. Like, they are good for finding out the different issues that different demographics groups find important, and why people vote the way they do. Their predictive power is overstated.
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Oct 3, 2016 07:24
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boner confessor posted:as a point of trivia, the only building in the us which has its own zip code is the empire state building. so if you drop a letter in a box on the street outside of trump tower, or mail something from a box inside of trump tower, it would be the same to the postal service This is not true. A bunch of buildings have their own ZIP code.
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Oct 3, 2016 07:25
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Simplex is correct. The predictive power of polls is overstated.
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Oct 3, 2016 07:33
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Trevor Hale posted:This is not true. A bunch of buildings have their own ZIP code. One of them is the Focus on the Family campus, if anybody's looking for locations for their next horror movie
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Oct 3, 2016 07:34
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I need new polls. I need to see if nothing still matters and I'd love to see the Khans show up on TV hitting Trump for the Miss Universe thing, and taxes. Plus Trump's other various awfulness.
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Oct 3, 2016 07:35
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NaanViolence posted:Simplex is correct. The predictive power of polls is overstated. I can hear steam coming out of Nate Silvers ears.
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Oct 3, 2016 07:51
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computer parts posted:According to Wikipedia: it means if you repeat that test a bunch of times, you'll get different intervals for each test, and a ci of 95% means t will lie within 95% of the intervals generated by all the tests
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Oct 3, 2016 07:59
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