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Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Evil Fluffy posted:

I need new polls. I need to see if nothing still matters and I'd love to see the Khans show up on TV hitting Trump for the Miss Universe thing, and taxes. Plus Trump's other various awfulness.

That might happen for November, just as a recap, but I have a feeling that the Clinton camp have planned for these things to have a life expectancy. First it was the Khans, then it was Machado, now the tax returns: Hillary's attacks will be presented in widest possible form available, be it the 110 million audience of the debates or the New York Times; they will be on everyone's lips, on every newspaper, website, and news broadcast, for a couple weeks at most; Trump will try to explain away (which, if you explain, you're losing) or present his recycled attacks as a rebuttal; and by the time it dies down and/or Trump think he has handle on the attack, Hillary will no longer touches it and drops a new bomb, and that dominates the news cycle and Trump's attention.

That way, it keeps these outrages fresh and not sounding like a broken record like Trump's attacks have been sounding.

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Atahualpa
Aug 18, 2015

A lucky bird.

Night10194 posted:

Frank Luntz is the guy who used to come up with ideas like 'They call it global warming, so ask why it's so cold out in winter.' for the GOP.

Several pages ago, but this is the second time I've seen someone in USPOL say this recently. It was actually the opposite; he pushed for it to be referred to as "climate change" because his focus testing found that the term had a much more benign connotation for voters - "global warming" gives the impression of this huge, scary, irrevocable thing, while "climate change" "sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to Fort Lauderdale".

Atahualpa fucked around with this message at 08:25 on Oct 3, 2016

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

Young Freud posted:

That might happen for November, just as a recap, but I have a feeling that the Clinton camp have planned for these things to have a life expectancy. First it was the Khans, then it was Machado, now the tax returns: Hillary's attacks will be presented in widest possible form available, be it the 110 million audience of the debates or the New York Times; they will be on everyone's lips, on every newspaper, website, and news broadcast, for a couple weeks at most; Trump will try to explain away (which, if you explain, you're losing) or present his recycled attacks as a rebuttal; and by the time it dies down and/or Trump think he has handle on the attack, Hillary will no longer touches it and drops a new bomb, and that dominates the news cycle and Trump's attention.

That way, it keeps these outrages fresh and not sounding like a broken record like Trump's attacks have been sounding.

I can see this since Trump's opp research binder's actually a file cabinet.

Ditocoaf
Jun 1, 2011

John Oliver's latest segment on police accountability does a pretty good job of shoring up a core complaint (heck, even just titling the segment "Police Accountability" is a good move in the world of facebook shares and the like). As usual, most of his jokes come out of nowhere, miss me completely, and then are immediately ignored ("just like pop culture thing" interjects John Oliver, pauses for laughs, then continues), but the argument is as well-stated as possible while remaining jovial and only briefly mentioning the racial component to this all. I'd see this working as, like, step 1 of a several-step process of getting your annoying family member to stop tut-tutting BLM.

(posting this because this sort of poo poo has been out of the thread for a while and that doesn't feel right because of course it hasn't been resolved at all. As good as good election news feels.)

Euphoriaphone
Aug 10, 2006

Internet Kraken posted:



Trump's implosion has been way too funny.

Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs?

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Actually, I might be a bit wrong about my assessment of Hildawg's tactics, forgetting about the debate: she will bring it up in the next debate ONCE, then drop it before presenting a new bomb.

Also, I have a feeling that, with Trump's taxes being revealed and his desire to rewrite an already beneficial system to his favor and with Bernie waiting in the wings, Hillary and the Dems are planning to connect Trump to guys like Martin Shkreli and Mylan's Heather Bresch, Wells Fargo, and the gamut of various arrogant business transgressions and abuses of the last few years. It's pretty clear that the message will be a very class-driven "These guys are Trump's friends. If you vote for Trump, you are putting these cheating, price-gouging assholes into power."

Grundulum
Feb 28, 2006

Euphoriaphone posted:

Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs?

Read the OP. ComradeCosmobot puts effort into it each month.

Ditocoaf
Jun 1, 2011

Euphoriaphone posted:

Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs?

It's a reference to a @dril tweet which was a silly nonsensical turn of phrase. Building an entire frequently-used term on a single reference to a tiny funny thing seems like a bit much to me, but whatever, you can't stop memes.

(gently caress it: Part of the original tweet's humor comes from how it seems to come out of nowhere but fits well anyway, like most dril tweets. using it as a routine way to say "this guy was owned" fails to be funny or weird or really anything. I'm a curmudgeon about memes. Arzy is a good and useful term though.)

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Ditocoaf posted:

It's a reference to a @dril tweet which was a silly nonsensical turn of phrase. Building an entire frequently-used term on a single reference to a tiny funny thing seems like a bit much to me, but whatever, you can't stop memes.

(gently caress it: Part of the original tweet's humor comes from how it seems to come out of nowhere but fits well anyway, like most dril tweets. using it as a routine way to say "this guy was owned" diminishes everything involved. I'm a curmudgeon about memes. Arzy is a good and useful term though.)

an arzy is just a corncob that has withstood the test of time

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

Ditocoaf posted:

It's a reference to a @dril tweet which was a silly nonsensical turn of phrase. Building an entire frequently-used term on a single reference to a tiny funny thing seems like a bit much to me, but whatever, you can't stop memes.

(gently caress it: Part of the original tweet's humor comes from how it seems to come out of nowhere but fits well anyway, like most dril tweets. using it as a routine way to say "this guy was owned" diminishes everything involved. I'm a curmudgeon about memes. Arzy is a good and useful term though.)

This is an extremely painful post to explain the reference to this:

https://twitter.com/dril/status/134787490526658561

Ditocoaf
Jun 1, 2011

JosefStalinator posted:

This is an extremely painful post to explain the reference to this:

https://twitter.com/dril/status/134787490526658561

the post above me already pointed them to the OP, I was just further explaining that the dril tweet itself wasn't a reference to anything, which is a point that a couple other askers in the last thread got hung up on. Then I got lost complaining about memes. For that I apologize. I realize that this will only make people say "corncob" more, in order to stick it to people like me.

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer
^^^It's all good just teasing you for overanalyzing @dril

Simplex posted:

Given that race, gender, age, education, income, etc. are all pretty good predictors for how someone is going to vote, you should probably consider if polls are actually providing any new information. Or, if through repeated sampling they are merely zeroing on a mean that could fairly easily be calculated through other methods.

Pretty good predictor does not mean a perfect predictor. No one is only a white person, only a man, only educated, only rich, etc. And even if they were, demographics only explain some percent (less than 100) of a person's voting patterns. There's an element of randomness, and the fact that many voters are single issue voters or vote because of some gaffe or quality like "temperament of a candidate", that polls more accurately measure.

Also, without polls, how would we know which groups are more likely to vote for which party/candidate? Some demographics are more salient at some times than other - Catholics, for example, used to skew heavily toward the Dems, but it's pretty even now or a wash (or better explained by ethnicity). Polling shows us how these things change over time.

ParliamentOfDogs
Jan 29, 2009

My genre's thriller... What's yours?
Does anyone have a link to a reputable site that keeps a tab of the accusations that Trump cheats his employees? Googling around I find a lot of individual accusations but I'd like to see a comprehensive accounting if it exists.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



ParliamentOfDogs posted:

Does anyone have a link to a reputable site that keeps a tab of the accusations that Trump cheats his employees? Googling around I find a lot of individual accusations but I'd like to see a comprehensive accounting if it exists.



it is alas, still being digitized

ParliamentOfDogs
Jan 29, 2009

My genre's thriller... What's yours?

Epic High Five posted:



it is alas, still being digitized

Yeah, that's kind of the thing. I'm googling around and it's overwhelming. Lot of individual anecdotes, everything from deciding not to pay a half million commission on a whim to snaking tips from wait staff. I'd like to see a huge well researched write up on as much of it as possible. Also, Ivanka Trump kind of sounds like a piece of poo poo as well, I'm not sure why people always seem to go easy on her.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

ParliamentOfDogs posted:

Also, Ivanka Trump kind of sounds like a piece of poo poo as well, I'm not sure why people always seem to go easy on her.

Rape victim. By the Donald, even.

Edit: poo poo, didn't see the "k". Yeah, Ivanka is pretty much an apologist for her father.

Young Freud fucked around with this message at 09:22 on Oct 3, 2016

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



ParliamentOfDogs posted:

Yeah, that's kind of the thing. I'm googling around and it's overwhelming. Lot of individual anecdotes, everything from deciding not to pay a half million commission on a whim to snaking tips from wait staff. I'd like to see a huge well researched write up on as much of it as possible. Also, Ivanka Trump kind of sounds like a piece of poo poo as well, I'm not sure why people always seem to go easy on her.

She had a low enough profile that until more came out about her, it seemed plausible that she was grounded and capable, or at the very least a generic rich kid personality who has their name stamped on some mass produced handbags and blouses or whatever and calls themselves business people

Then of course she gave ripped off Clinton speeches about plans to help families that have no grounding in anything else on the GOP platform while loving over her own employees, and of course that time she made interns write an article about how great it was to do work for no money and tips on surviving in NYC with no income.

Young Freud posted:

Rape victim. By the Donald, even.

That was Ivana, not Ivanka

Well, probably just Ivana, and even then allegedly. It's the most we're probably getting and anyway, more than enough that the divorce was granted on grounds of cruel and inhumane treatment

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
I thought this piece from The Economist was relevant:


A tale of two ethics; Why many Germans think impractical idealism is immoral

quote:

THE phrases “ethic of conviction” and “ethic of responsibility” mean little to most English-speakers. In Germany the equivalent terms—Gesinnungsethik and Verantwortungsethik—are household words. Pundits drop them casually during television talk shows. Hosts use them as conversation-starters at dinner parties. The concepts draw on the opposition between idealism and pragmatism that runs through politics everywhere. But they also capture a specific moral tension that is “very German”, says Manfred Güllner, a sociologist and pollster. Anyone interested in understanding German politics, on anything from the euro to refugees, would do well to get a handle on them.

The terms come from the sociologist Max Weber, who used them in a speech he gave in January 1919 to a group of leftist students at a Munich bookstore. Germany had just lost the first world war. The Kaiser had abdicated, the country was in the throes of revolution and Munich was about to become the capital of a short-lived “Bavarian Soviet Republic”. Armed with only eight index cards, Weber gave a talk that would become a classic of political science. (“Politics as a Vocation” was published in English only after the second world war.) The lecture ranged broadly through history, but its main purpose was to curb the Utopian romanticism then gripping the ideologues fighting over the direction of the new Germany, including those sitting in front of him.

Weber described an “abysmal opposition” between two types of ethics. Those following their convictions wish to preserve their own moral purity, no matter what consequences their policies may have in the real world. “If an action of good intent leads to bad results, then, in the actor’s eyes, not he but the world, or the stupidity of other men, or God’s will who made them thus, is responsible for the evil.” By contrast, someone guided by responsibility “takes account of precisely the average deficiencies of people…(H)e does not even have the right to presuppose their goodness and perfection.” This sort of politician will answer for all the consequences of his actions, even unintended ones. Weber left no doubt about his sympathies. Ethicists of conviction, he said, were “in nine out of ten cases windbags”.

...

The ethic of responsibility holds that such stances are not merely impractical but wrong, and that what will not work cannot be moral. Those governing Germany have mostly been of this camp. In the 1980s millions of Germans marched against the modernisation of NATO’s nuclear arsenal, but Chancellor Helmut Schmidt let the missiles deploy, accepting the grim logic of deterrence. (His reward from his fellow Social Democrats was largely disdain.) In the euro crisis, Angela Merkel reluctantly agreed to bail-outs in order to hold the currency zone together.

That is what makes Mrs Merkel’s historic opening of Germany’s borders to refugees on September 4th, 2015 so remarkable. “She galloped away with an ethic of conviction,” says Konrad Ott, a professor of philosophy and author of a book on migration and morality. At the time this aligned her with a euphoric “welcome culture”, as ordinary Germans volunteered to help refugees and the press celebrated the country’s humanitarian example. Mrs Merkel refused to put a numerical limit on accepting human beings in dire need, a position she still maintains.

But as predicted by ethicists of responsibility (in whose ranks Mrs Merkel is usually found), the mood soon turned. Other Europeans accused Germany of “moral imperialism”, the flip side of Gesinnungsethik. And many Germans felt that too much was being asked of their society. Some, in a development that would not have surprised Weber, turned xenophobic.

The history of the past year can thus be seen as Mrs Merkel’s attempt to return to an ethic of responsibility without betraying her convictions. This includes biting her tongue as she deals with an increasingly authoritarian Turkey, whose cooperation she needs to reduce the migrant flows, and other moral compromises. Max Weber would have found her dilemma compelling. Even someone with an ethic of responsibility, he said, sometimes “reaches the point where he says: ‘Here I stand; I can do no other.’ That is something genuinely human and moving.”

I think it speaks to the logic of "tactical voting" in general, and specifically delves into what goes in peoples's heads as they argue about Sanders vs. Clinton, Clinton vs. Stein, being merely "anti-Trump" instead of being "truly progressive", "burn it all down" vs. "incremental change", or even the legacy of Barack Obama and his transformation from Campaign Obama to President Obama.

canepazzo
May 29, 2006



Apparently, "A source close to wikileaks" revealed that the next drop is actually not that great for both candidates.

My guess: they'll leak that both candidates Testosterone levels are way too low for an adult human male, thus fulfilling the "both sides equally bad" quota for the cycle.

Covok
May 27, 2013

Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.

canepazzo posted:

Apparently, "A source close to wikileaks" revealed that the next drop is actually not that great for both candidates.

My guess: they'll leak that both candidates Testosterone levels are way too low for an adult human male, thus fulfilling the "both sides equally bad" quota for the cycle.

It's probably just how they both backed a guy who later turned out to be a pedophile.

KiteAuraan
Aug 5, 2014

JER GEDDA FERDA RADDA ARA!


Covok posted:

It's probably just how they both backed a guy who later turned out to be a pedophile.

Nothing says "leak" like "common knowledge and non-issue"!

botany
Apr 27, 2013

by Lowtax

Euphoriaphone posted:

Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs?

because goons have to run everything into the ground

vseslav.botkin
Feb 18, 2007
Professor

canepazzo posted:

Apparently, "A source close to wikileaks" revealed that the next drop is actually not that great for both candidates.

My guess: they'll leak that both candidates Testosterone levels are way too low for an adult human male, thus fulfilling the "both sides equally bad" quota for the cycle.

One sex tape, two candidates.

Armani
Jun 22, 2008

Now it's been 17 summers since I've seen my mother

But every night I see her smile inside my dreams

vyelkin posted:

Yeah, they're dropping any pretense of being a serious organization.

I wanted to let you know that this was excellent :golfclap:

FronzelNeekburm
Jun 1, 2001

STOP, MORTTIME

Volcott posted:

(Why are Britpolls worse than American ones?)

They don't get as much practice, and part of the correction you make for possible flaws is to look at how people voted in previous, similar elections. Nobody had voted in a Brexit election before.

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

Here's a decent tracker that shows how the Brexit polls developed.

They didn't nail it, but most polls were within MOE and loads of polls showed Leave ahead. It can't be called a polling miss and it drives me up the wall people, even smart people, have collectively decided that Brexit couldn't be seen coming. The people who couldn't see it coming were betting markets and pundits, not scientific polls.

The lesson from Brexit and the Trump nomination are one and the same: just read the polls, and just the polls.

canepazzo
May 29, 2006



Someone mentioned polls?

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/782902252415676416

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

Euphoriaphone posted:

Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs?

Can we start probating people who don't read the first post and then ask stupid questions like this/what is Arzying?

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

Behold, the oppo dump: "Donald Trump's real estate organization rented New York office space from 1998 to 2003 to an Iranian bank that U.S. authorities have linked to terrorist groups and Iran's nuclear program."

pacerhimself
Dec 30, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

Looking forward to opening that tweet in an hour to read the screeching about bias

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe
AP has published an investigation into Trump's conduct on the Apprentice apparently:

quote:

In his years as a reality TV boss on "The Apprentice," Donald Trump repeatedly demeaned women with sexist language, according to show insiders who said he rated female contestants by the size of their breasts and talked about which ones he'd like to have sex with.

The Associated Press interviewed more than 20 people — former crew members, editors and contestants — who described crass behavior by Trump behind the scenes of the long-running hit show, in which aspiring capitalists were given tasks to perform as they competed for jobs working for him.

The staffers and contestants agreed to recount their experiences as Trump's behavior toward women has become a core issue in the presidential campaign. Interviewed separately, they gave concurring accounts of inappropriate conduct on the set.

Eight former crew members recalled that he repeatedly made lewd comments about a camerawoman he said had a nice rear, comparing her beauty to that of his daughter, Ivanka.

During one season, Trump called for female contestants to wear shorter dresses that also showed more cleavage, according to contestant Gene Folkes. Several cast members said Trump had one female contestant twirl before him so he could ogle her figure.

Randal Pinkett, who won the program in December 2005 and who has recently criticized Trump during his run for president, said he remembered the real estate mogul talking about which female contestants he wanted to sleep with, even though Trump had married former model Melania Knauss earlier that year: "He was like 'Isn't she hot, check her out,' kind of gawking, something to the effect of 'I'd like to hit that.' "

Former producer Katherine Walker said Trump frequently talked about women's bodies during the five seasons she worked with him and said he speculated about which female contestant would be "a tiger in bed."

A former crew member who signed a non-disclosure agreement and asked not to be identified, recalled that Trump asked male contestants whether they would sleep with a particular female contestant, then expressed his own interest.

"We were in the boardroom one time figuring out who to blame for the task, and he just stopped in the middle and pointed to someone and said, 'You'd f*** her, wouldn't you? I'd f*** her. C'mon, wouldn't you?'"

The person continued: "Everyone is trying to make him stop talking, and the woman is shrinking in her seat."


...

In portions of boardroom sessions never broadcast, Trump frequently would ask male contestants to rate the attractiveness of their female competitors, former crew members and contestants said.

"If there was a break in the conversation, he would then look at one of the female cast members, saying, 'you're looking kind of hot today, I love that dress on you,' then he would turn to one of the male cast members and say, 'wouldn't you sleep with her?' and then everyone would laugh," said a former crew member who spoke on condition of anonymity because of a non-disclosure agreement. "There would be about 10 or 12 cameras rolling and getting that footage, which is why everybody was like, this guy just doesn't care."

Trump would carry on with the questions even if all involved were married, said Gene Folkes, who appeared on the program in 2010.

Folkes said he also remembered that Trump "asked one of the women their breast size at one point, or said, 'are those real or natural?'"

Jim Dowd, who did public relations for Trump, NBC and "The Apprentice" shows between 2003 and 2009, said Trump was a "lover of women" and a "guy's guy."

"Was he complimenting the women? Of course. Was he behind closed doors with just the guys rating the women, who were the hotter ones on the show? Yes, he certainly was prone to that," Dowd said.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-demeaned-female-apprentice-contestants-ap-investigation-n658411

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.


Mmmm, yes, this is exactly what I needed.

Basically, so much of the anxiety of this election is in wondering what is going to matter. Getting confirmation that Stuff Is Mattering is always the best.

Night10194 fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Oct 3, 2016

Pastrymancy
Feb 20, 2011

11:13: Despite Gio Gonzalez warning, "Never mix your sparkling juices," Bryce Harper opens another bottle of sparkling grape and mixes it with sparkling cider.

1:07: Harper walks to the 7-11 and orders an all-syrup Slurpee.

1:10-3:05: Harper has no recollection of this time. Aliens?

I have a sneaking suspicion he doesn't know what a sanction is supposed to do.

Ora Tzo
Feb 26, 2016

HEEEERES TONYYYY

October just keeps on getting better..

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

gradenko_2000 posted:

I thought this piece from The Economist was relevant:


A tale of two ethics; Why many Germans think impractical idealism is immoral


I think it speaks to the logic of "tactical voting" in general, and specifically delves into what goes in peoples's heads as they argue about Sanders vs. Clinton, Clinton vs. Stein, being merely "anti-Trump" instead of being "truly progressive", "burn it all down" vs. "incremental change", or even the legacy of Barack Obama and his transformation from Campaign Obama to President Obama.

On the other hand Max Weber's right wing rear end can continue to get hosed

protestant work ethic my rear end

Theris
Oct 9, 2007

KiteAuraan posted:

Nothing says "leak" like "common knowledge and non-issue"!

That's literally everything Wikileaks has dropped since the original DNC leak.

NewMars
Mar 10, 2013

Ora Tzo posted:

October just keeps on getting better..

This is the arrested development timeline isn't it? Just with no Micheal bluth to keep things together.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009
Oh hey LeBron James continuing to show why Michael Jordan can't hold his jock strap

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
I was going to say "maybe they should slow down, jesus" but then I realized there's probably enough Trump oppo that you could drop more than one bombshell per day until the election.

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FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



quote:

Eight former crew members recalled that he repeatedly made lewd comments about a camerawoman he said had a nice rear, comparing her beauty to that of his daughter, Ivanka.

Gross...

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