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Evil Fluffy posted:I need new polls. I need to see if nothing still matters and I'd love to see the Khans show up on TV hitting Trump for the Miss Universe thing, and taxes. Plus Trump's other various awfulness. That might happen for November, just as a recap, but I have a feeling that the Clinton camp have planned for these things to have a life expectancy. First it was the Khans, then it was Machado, now the tax returns: Hillary's attacks will be presented in widest possible form available, be it the 110 million audience of the debates or the New York Times; they will be on everyone's lips, on every newspaper, website, and news broadcast, for a couple weeks at most; Trump will try to explain away (which, if you explain, you're losing) or present his recycled attacks as a rebuttal; and by the time it dies down and/or Trump think he has handle on the attack, Hillary will no longer touches it and drops a new bomb, and that dominates the news cycle and Trump's attention. That way, it keeps these outrages fresh and not sounding like a broken record like Trump's attacks have been sounding.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:17 |
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# ? May 20, 2024 08:29 |
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Night10194 posted:Frank Luntz is the guy who used to come up with ideas like 'They call it global warming, so ask why it's so cold out in winter.' for the GOP. Several pages ago, but this is the second time I've seen someone in USPOL say this recently. It was actually the opposite; he pushed for it to be referred to as "climate change" because his focus testing found that the term had a much more benign connotation for voters - "global warming" gives the impression of this huge, scary, irrevocable thing, while "climate change" "sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to Fort Lauderdale". Atahualpa fucked around with this message at 08:25 on Oct 3, 2016 |
# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:21 |
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Young Freud posted:That might happen for November, just as a recap, but I have a feeling that the Clinton camp have planned for these things to have a life expectancy. First it was the Khans, then it was Machado, now the tax returns: Hillary's attacks will be presented in widest possible form available, be it the 110 million audience of the debates or the New York Times; they will be on everyone's lips, on every newspaper, website, and news broadcast, for a couple weeks at most; Trump will try to explain away (which, if you explain, you're losing) or present his recycled attacks as a rebuttal; and by the time it dies down and/or Trump think he has handle on the attack, Hillary will no longer touches it and drops a new bomb, and that dominates the news cycle and Trump's attention. I can see this since Trump's opp research binder's actually a file cabinet.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:21 |
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John Oliver's latest segment on police accountability does a pretty good job of shoring up a core complaint (heck, even just titling the segment "Police Accountability" is a good move in the world of facebook shares and the like). As usual, most of his jokes come out of nowhere, miss me completely, and then are immediately ignored ("just like pop culture thing" interjects John Oliver, pauses for laughs, then continues), but the argument is as well-stated as possible while remaining jovial and only briefly mentioning the racial component to this all. I'd see this working as, like, step 1 of a several-step process of getting your annoying family member to stop tut-tutting BLM. (posting this because this sort of poo poo has been out of the thread for a while and that doesn't feel right because of course it hasn't been resolved at all. As good as good election news feels.)
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:24 |
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Internet Kraken posted:
Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs?
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:32 |
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Actually, I might be a bit wrong about my assessment of Hildawg's tactics, forgetting about the debate: she will bring it up in the next debate ONCE, then drop it before presenting a new bomb. Also, I have a feeling that, with Trump's taxes being revealed and his desire to rewrite an already beneficial system to his favor and with Bernie waiting in the wings, Hillary and the Dems are planning to connect Trump to guys like Martin Shkreli and Mylan's Heather Bresch, Wells Fargo, and the gamut of various arrogant business transgressions and abuses of the last few years. It's pretty clear that the message will be a very class-driven "These guys are Trump's friends. If you vote for Trump, you are putting these cheating, price-gouging assholes into power."
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:36 |
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Euphoriaphone posted:Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs? Read the OP. ComradeCosmobot puts effort into it each month.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:37 |
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Euphoriaphone posted:Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs? It's a reference to a @dril tweet which was a silly nonsensical turn of phrase. Building an entire frequently-used term on a single reference to a tiny funny thing seems like a bit much to me, but whatever, you can't stop memes. (gently caress it: Part of the original tweet's humor comes from how it seems to come out of nowhere but fits well anyway, like most dril tweets. using it as a routine way to say "this guy was owned" fails to be funny or weird or really anything. I'm a curmudgeon about memes. Arzy is a good and useful term though.)
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:54 |
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Ditocoaf posted:It's a reference to a @dril tweet which was a silly nonsensical turn of phrase. Building an entire frequently-used term on a single reference to a tiny funny thing seems like a bit much to me, but whatever, you can't stop memes. an arzy is just a corncob that has withstood the test of time
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:56 |
Ditocoaf posted:It's a reference to a @dril tweet which was a silly nonsensical turn of phrase. Building an entire frequently-used term on a single reference to a tiny funny thing seems like a bit much to me, but whatever, you can't stop memes. This is an extremely painful post to explain the reference to this: https://twitter.com/dril/status/134787490526658561
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:56 |
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JosefStalinator posted:This is an extremely painful post to explain the reference to this: the post above me already pointed them to the OP, I was just further explaining that the dril tweet itself wasn't a reference to anything, which is a point that a couple other askers in the last thread got hung up on. Then I got lost complaining about memes. For that I apologize. I realize that this will only make people say "corncob" more, in order to stick it to people like me.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:59 |
^^^It's all good just teasing you for overanalyzing @drilSimplex posted:Given that race, gender, age, education, income, etc. are all pretty good predictors for how someone is going to vote, you should probably consider if polls are actually providing any new information. Or, if through repeated sampling they are merely zeroing on a mean that could fairly easily be calculated through other methods. Pretty good predictor does not mean a perfect predictor. No one is only a white person, only a man, only educated, only rich, etc. And even if they were, demographics only explain some percent (less than 100) of a person's voting patterns. There's an element of randomness, and the fact that many voters are single issue voters or vote because of some gaffe or quality like "temperament of a candidate", that polls more accurately measure. Also, without polls, how would we know which groups are more likely to vote for which party/candidate? Some demographics are more salient at some times than other - Catholics, for example, used to skew heavily toward the Dems, but it's pretty even now or a wash (or better explained by ethnicity). Polling shows us how these things change over time.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:59 |
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Does anyone have a link to a reputable site that keeps a tab of the accusations that Trump cheats his employees? Googling around I find a lot of individual accusations but I'd like to see a comprehensive accounting if it exists.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 09:00 |
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ParliamentOfDogs posted:Does anyone have a link to a reputable site that keeps a tab of the accusations that Trump cheats his employees? Googling around I find a lot of individual accusations but I'd like to see a comprehensive accounting if it exists. it is alas, still being digitized
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 09:06 |
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Epic High Five posted:
Yeah, that's kind of the thing. I'm googling around and it's overwhelming. Lot of individual anecdotes, everything from deciding not to pay a half million commission on a whim to snaking tips from wait staff. I'd like to see a huge well researched write up on as much of it as possible. Also, Ivanka Trump kind of sounds like a piece of poo poo as well, I'm not sure why people always seem to go easy on her.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 09:11 |
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ParliamentOfDogs posted:Also, Ivanka Trump kind of sounds like a piece of poo poo as well, I'm not sure why people always seem to go easy on her. Rape victim. By the Donald, even. Edit: poo poo, didn't see the "k". Yeah, Ivanka is pretty much an apologist for her father. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 09:22 on Oct 3, 2016 |
# ? Oct 3, 2016 09:17 |
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ParliamentOfDogs posted:Yeah, that's kind of the thing. I'm googling around and it's overwhelming. Lot of individual anecdotes, everything from deciding not to pay a half million commission on a whim to snaking tips from wait staff. I'd like to see a huge well researched write up on as much of it as possible. Also, Ivanka Trump kind of sounds like a piece of poo poo as well, I'm not sure why people always seem to go easy on her. She had a low enough profile that until more came out about her, it seemed plausible that she was grounded and capable, or at the very least a generic rich kid personality who has their name stamped on some mass produced handbags and blouses or whatever and calls themselves business people Then of course she gave ripped off Clinton speeches about plans to help families that have no grounding in anything else on the GOP platform while loving over her own employees, and of course that time she made interns write an article about how great it was to do work for no money and tips on surviving in NYC with no income. Young Freud posted:Rape victim. By the Donald, even. That was Ivana, not Ivanka Well, probably just Ivana, and even then allegedly. It's the most we're probably getting and anyway, more than enough that the divorce was granted on grounds of cruel and inhumane treatment
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 09:17 |
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I thought this piece from The Economist was relevant: A tale of two ethics; Why many Germans think impractical idealism is immoral quote:THE phrases “ethic of conviction” and “ethic of responsibility” mean little to most English-speakers. In Germany the equivalent terms—Gesinnungsethik and Verantwortungsethik—are household words. Pundits drop them casually during television talk shows. Hosts use them as conversation-starters at dinner parties. The concepts draw on the opposition between idealism and pragmatism that runs through politics everywhere. But they also capture a specific moral tension that is “very German”, says Manfred Güllner, a sociologist and pollster. Anyone interested in understanding German politics, on anything from the euro to refugees, would do well to get a handle on them. I think it speaks to the logic of "tactical voting" in general, and specifically delves into what goes in peoples's heads as they argue about Sanders vs. Clinton, Clinton vs. Stein, being merely "anti-Trump" instead of being "truly progressive", "burn it all down" vs. "incremental change", or even the legacy of Barack Obama and his transformation from Campaign Obama to President Obama.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 09:57 |
Apparently, "A source close to wikileaks" revealed that the next drop is actually not that great for both candidates. My guess: they'll leak that both candidates Testosterone levels are way too low for an adult human male, thus fulfilling the "both sides equally bad" quota for the cycle.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 10:02 |
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canepazzo posted:Apparently, "A source close to wikileaks" revealed that the next drop is actually not that great for both candidates. It's probably just how they both backed a guy who later turned out to be a pedophile.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 10:10 |
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Covok posted:It's probably just how they both backed a guy who later turned out to be a pedophile. Nothing says "leak" like "common knowledge and non-issue"!
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 10:33 |
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Euphoriaphone posted:Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs? because goons have to run everything into the ground
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 10:33 |
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canepazzo posted:Apparently, "A source close to wikileaks" revealed that the next drop is actually not that great for both candidates. One sex tape, two candidates.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 10:38 |
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vyelkin posted:Yeah, they're dropping any pretense of being a serious organization. I wanted to let you know that this was excellent
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 11:07 |
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Volcott posted:(Why are Britpolls worse than American ones?) They don't get as much practice, and part of the correction you make for possible flaws is to look at how people voted in previous, similar elections. Nobody had voted in a Brexit election before.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 11:44 |
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Here's a decent tracker that shows how the Brexit polls developed. They didn't nail it, but most polls were within MOE and loads of polls showed Leave ahead. It can't be called a polling miss and it drives me up the wall people, even smart people, have collectively decided that Brexit couldn't be seen coming. The people who couldn't see it coming were betting markets and pundits, not scientific polls. The lesson from Brexit and the Trump nomination are one and the same: just read the polls, and just the polls.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:00 |
Someone mentioned polls? https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/782902252415676416
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:19 |
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Euphoriaphone posted:Why the gently caress do people keep mentioning corn cobs? Can we start probating people who don't read the first post and then ask stupid questions like this/what is Arzying?
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:21 |
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Behold, the oppo dump: "Donald Trump's real estate organization rented New York office space from 1998 to 2003 to an Iranian bank that U.S. authorities have linked to terrorist groups and Iran's nuclear program."
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:23 |
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canepazzo posted:Someone mentioned polls? Looking forward to opening that tweet in an hour to read the screeching about bias
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:24 |
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AP has published an investigation into Trump's conduct on the Apprentice apparently: quote:In his years as a reality TV boss on "The Apprentice," Donald Trump repeatedly demeaned women with sexist language, according to show insiders who said he rated female contestants by the size of their breasts and talked about which ones he'd like to have sex with. http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-demeaned-female-apprentice-contestants-ap-investigation-n658411
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:24 |
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canepazzo posted:Someone mentioned polls? Mmmm, yes, this is exactly what I needed. Basically, so much of the anxiety of this election is in wondering what is going to matter. Getting confirmation that Stuff Is Mattering is always the best. Night10194 fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Oct 3, 2016 |
# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:27 |
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Antti posted:Behold, the oppo dump: "Donald Trump's real estate organization rented New York office space from 1998 to 2003 to an Iranian bank that U.S. authorities have linked to terrorist groups and Iran's nuclear program." I have a sneaking suspicion he doesn't know what a sanction is supposed to do.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:30 |
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Antti posted:Behold, the oppo dump: "Donald Trump's real estate organization rented New York office space from 1998 to 2003 to an Iranian bank that U.S. authorities have linked to terrorist groups and Iran's nuclear program." October just keeps on getting better..
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:30 |
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gradenko_2000 posted:I thought this piece from The Economist was relevant: On the other hand Max Weber's right wing rear end can continue to get hosed protestant work ethic my rear end
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:31 |
KiteAuraan posted:Nothing says "leak" like "common knowledge and non-issue"! That's literally everything Wikileaks has dropped since the original DNC leak.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:31 |
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Ora Tzo posted:October just keeps on getting better.. This is the arrested development timeline isn't it? Just with no Micheal bluth to keep things together.
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:34 |
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Oh hey LeBron James continuing to show why Michael Jordan can't hold his jock strap
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:37 |
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Antti posted:Behold, the oppo dump: "Donald Trump's real estate organization rented New York office space from 1998 to 2003 to an Iranian bank that U.S. authorities have linked to terrorist groups and Iran's nuclear program." Party Plane Jones posted:AP has published an investigation into Trump's conduct on the Apprentice apparently:
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:40 |
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# ? May 20, 2024 08:29 |
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quote:Eight former crew members recalled that he repeatedly made lewd comments about a camerawoman he said had a nice rear, comparing her beauty to that of his daughter, Ivanka. Gross...
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# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:40 |