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cheetah7071 posted:My model is the bronze age collapse here. Lower population, people spending more time surviving and less time making trade goods, a collapse of the governmental systems that kept things safe and encouraged trade, and refugee armies making travel unsafe. the question is can we get an oral tradition together fast enough to preserve our epic poems? 
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Nov 8, 2018 01:15
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Anyone else still really really pissed at Nate and his wild hosed up Live Model that gave us all direct flashbacks to 2016 except with the additional knowledge that if we didn’t take the House it was Game loving Over for real? the moment when you started mournfully apologizing to people was one of the highlights of my year
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Nov 8, 2018 01:15
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Phi230 posted:Just because socialism is necessary and sufficient to combat fascism and other reactionary tendencies does not mean that every fash and reactionary be converted. Success must be made in spite of reactionaries by empowering people against them Is that a quote? Because if not it's really well-put. 
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Nov 8, 2018 01:15
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Framboise posted:My Trumpkin mom is fussing on facebook about how nothing will be done now that dems control the House and how "Hateful Maxine Waters" just wants "Revenge and destruction", and that this is handing 2020 to Trump on a silver platter. while it's also not entirely a false equivalence, i would like to refer you to how republicans performed after their obstruction of obama
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Nov 8, 2018 01:16
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Framboise posted:My Trumpkin mom is fussing on facebook about how nothing will be done now that dems control the House and how "Hateful Maxine Waters" just wants "Revenge and destruction", and that this is handing 2020 to Trump on a silver platter. we can only hope they will, but pelosi has not been inspiring confidence in that
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Nov 8, 2018 01:16
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Anyone else still really really pissed at Nate and his wild hosed up Live Model that gave us all direct flashbacks to 2016 except with the additional knowledge that if we didn’t take the House it was Game loving Over for real? lol Nate, and the rest of the thread that fed into the hysteria. I had to duck out and play Red Dead for a couple hours hoping the numbers would bounce back. In the future I think I'll just check 538's final prediction Tuesday morning and sit back and relax. Following an election live is addictive but probably not very healthy.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:16
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Strange Poon posted:2040 won't just have the East Coast underwater, we're looking at increasingly awful catastrophes that may not cause civilization to collapse but will definitely be seized on by the right wing to ramp up the fascism. I think the long game is favoring the left but we unfortunately do not have a lot of time. On this topic I've been thinking. One the one hand, social collapse in other countries leading to mass refugees is definitely gonna favor the right wing. But outright natural disaster stuff will require the country to be much more centralized with relief and planning, really a communal matter. And this favors the left. It does not bode well for America's libertarian brain worms. If we can fight off the fascist poo poo I think there are silver linings in facing off with this crap.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:16
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Majorian posted:Is that a quote? Because if not it's really well-put. I will never source my quotes
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Nov 8, 2018 01:16
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Condiv posted:what's the obsession with beto? i really don't get it He's a white guy who said progressive things in Texas. He's obviously infinitely better than Cruz and it would have been great if he won, but I don't get the hype about him going into other races. He's espoused good progressive positions, but he always gave me weird vibes, like he was just following talking points while pretending to be passionate. That and stuff like ~skateboarding at whataburger on stream~ stuff was just like.... what? That's what unoccupied teenagers do. It's weird for a candidate for a national position of power to be doing that and it reeks.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:17
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Framboise posted:As much as I am loathe to ever agree with her (I don't even follow her on facebook, her political posts are vile), doesn't that carry a little truth to it? After all, dems are essentially going to be playing the same game against Trump in Congress as reps did against Obama... or is this a false equivalence? Think about 6 more years of Trump is honestly terrifying. It's probably going to be a lot of symbolic bills and grandstanding from 2020 hopefuls basically, but Democrats gridlocking the Trump Administration is a Good Thing imo.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:17
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eke out posted:the question is can we get an oral tradition together fast enough to preserve our epic poems? I know all the episodes of Star Trek, Power Rangers, and the plots and lore of all the Nintendo games (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 8, 2018 01:17
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Anyone else still really really pissed at Nate and his wild hosed up Live Model that gave us all direct flashbacks to 2016 except with the additional knowledge that if we didn’t take the House it was Game loving Over for real? Yeah, a bit, but honestly not as much as I am at MSNBC for putting Carville on. That man is only ever a depressing piece of poo poo.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:17
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Anyone else still really really pissed at Nate and his wild hosed up Live Model that gave us all direct flashbacks to 2016 except with the additional knowledge that if we didn’t take the House it was Game loving Over for real? His live model loving sucked. His priors weren't nearly strong enough and could be overwritten by votes that were barely in, and it didn't account for the fact that ABC called races that weren't going to flip earlier than it called races that did flip. If he doesn't publish a mea culpa on it I will be quite unhappy His pre-election non-live model was good though
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Nov 8, 2018 01:17
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Z. Autobahn posted:30% of the population WHERE? Nation-wide? Doesn't help us. But in red states, it's much much closer to or over 50%, and that's not even counting all the Independents who are functionally conservatives. Yeah, and they got that way because...? Do you think it's something in the water?
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Nov 8, 2018 01:18
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AlBorlantern Corps posted:I know all the episodes of Star Trek, Power Rangers, and the plots and lore of all the Nintendo games how does waluigi factor into the overarching plot of smash bros ultimate? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 8, 2018 01:18
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Framboise posted:My Trumpkin mom is fussing on facebook about how nothing will be done now that dems control the House and how "Hateful Maxine Waters" just wants "Revenge and destruction", and that this is handing 2020 to Trump on a silver platter. Your mom is right, we're gonna be obstructionist as gently caress. This is good because we are good. When they did it it was bad because they were bad. It sounds simplistic but it's clear. They believe the same thing about us, which is why calling people on their hypocrisy is pointless, they don't acknowledge it as such. When they go low we kick them.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:19
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cheetah7071 posted:My model is the bronze age collapse here. Lower population, people spending more time surviving and less time making trade goods, a collapse of the governmental systems that kept things safe and encouraged trade, and refugee armies making travel unsafe. Been reading "1177 BC," have you? drat good book, and important too. Deified Data posted:Your mom is right, we're gonna be obstructionist as gently caress. This is good because we are good. When they did it it was bad because they were bad. It sounds simplistic but it's clear. They believe the same thing about us, which is why calling people on their hypocrisy is pointless, they don't acknowledge it as such. When they go low we kick them. Amen. It's important to have a sense of moral clarity about these things. Fascism is bad. Racism is bad. Capitalism is bad. You don't motivate your coalition without a sense of moral clarity.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:19
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Framboise posted:My Trumpkin mom is fussing on facebook about how nothing will be done now that dems control the House and how "Hateful Maxine Waters" just wants "Revenge and destruction", and that this is handing 2020 to Trump on a silver platter. Yep, and I welcome it. Trump being obstructed means, at minimum, that he isn't able to get away as easily with the blatant corruption and poo poo-eating policies he and the GOP have been pushing, like getting rid of protections for pre-existing conditions and putting kids in concentration camps. We needed a check on Trump and we got it. That he chose today to jettison Sessions and endanger Mueller is an indication of how scared he is of Democrats carrying on investigations. F_Shit_Fitzgerald fucked around with this message at 01:22 on Nov 8, 2018 |
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Nov 8, 2018 01:19
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As soon as the 538 model glitched out, I had to close my computer and go play videogames for two hours to avoid a full-blown panic meltdown. When I came back, I fully expected the House to be red, so it was honestly a pleasant surprise. Also, while the pollsters were pretty good in the big picture sense, man did they gently caress up Senate Dems! Donnelly and McCasskill were rated as true toss-ups just to get blown out by 10 points. WTF happened there?
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Nov 8, 2018 01:19
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GreyjoyBastard posted:your post is not inconsistent with adar's You hit Miami with a massive hurricane, insurance primes skyrocket between risk assessments from further increased-intensity hurricanes and revised SLR projections, and capital just up and flees the state since it'd happen in the context of an existing global economic crisis. No rebuilding, no effective mitigation measures taken - the money goes where it's safer. Domino effect as the state's economy tanks and other localities either get hit by weather events or simply infrastructure decays beyond the ability to sustain them. Expect to start seeing this unfold in the 2030s. People will continue to live there, of course. The Florida isn't physically going anywhere for a few centuries still, but with no tourism, collapsed agriculture, and its major economic hubs unsustainable due to periodic disaster events, then how do you think the third most populous state in the union will fare?
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Nov 8, 2018 01:20
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Condiv posted:how does waluigi factor into the overarching plot of smash bros ultimate? i'm writing the Wario/Waluigi saga in dactylic hexameter as fast as I can (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 8, 2018 01:20
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Majorian posted:Been reading "1177 BC," have you? drat good book, and important too. Specifically asked the history thread for books on the bronze age collapse hoping to get insight into our future. The same scenario happening again seems plausible though obviously the world is such a complex thing that you can never be sure.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:21
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https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1060318001826803715
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Nov 8, 2018 01:21
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Random Stranger posted:There's a difference between law and order republicans who were lovely and "The party is all! Obey the party!" republicans. The FBI is filled with the former which is why the current republican party is so mad at them: they support the law rather than their team. You are mistaken
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Nov 8, 2018 01:21
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Z. Autobahn posted:Also, while the pollsters were pretty good in the big picture sense, man did they gently caress up Senate Dems! Donnelly and McCasskill were rated as true toss-ups just to get blown out by 10 points. WTF happened there? They both decided to pretend to be Republicans less than a month before the election.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:21
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:Yeah, and they got that way because...? Do you think it's something in the water? Do you... do you want me to recount the history of America, the Civil War, Reconstruction, the Civil Rights Act, etc? The question of 'why are Southern states racist' is... pretty well documented. Megaman's Jockstrap posted:They both decided to pretend to be Republicans less than a month before the election. I don't buy it. No way a handful of not-particularly-off-character comments suddenly causes both to tank 10 points.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:21
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Anyone else still really really pissed at Nate and his wild hosed up Live Model that gave us all direct flashbacks to 2016 except with the additional knowledge that if we didn’t take the House it was Game loving Over for real? I had to turn everything off once it went down to 2/3 and distracted myself for a few hours, and for three few hours I thought it was going to be a complete wash. Just resigned to losing everything. Taking the House was a nice surprise, but seeing 'Gillum concedes' out of context hurt. Oxxidation posted:the moment when you started mournfully apologizing to people was one of the highlights of my year Why are you like this?
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Nov 8, 2018 01:22
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A big problem with the entire concept of trying to find a more progressive person to win the rust belt or trying to run to the center to win the rust belt is the news bubble. It doesn't matter if a candidate literally has a manufacturing job creating machine because a Republican voter is gonna get the majority of their news from Fox News (at best). So anything and everything will be spun into insanity, your blue dog will be painted a radical socialist, your progressive will have all of their good policy ignored. All they're gonna hear is "FEAR THEM! They're want to help the things we tell you to be afraid of! They're gonna take away you're healthcare, they're gonna kill jobs, they're gonna let brown people live near you!" The news bubble is a huge problem that needs to be solved if you plan on trying to flip people back to Dems. And if you can't do that, then you're left with the Obama era plan of just trying to get your base out in the places where you have a large base, and we've seen that Dems need a 50 State plan to win and get poo poo done.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:22
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:Every single poster who thinks there are good, reachable Republicans who actually care about the rule of law should read The Reactionary Mind, a book I recommend all the time and makes an airtight case for conservatives having no real value system beyond establishing an over/underclass and keeping themselves in the privileged overclass. i have at no point been arguing that Robert Mueller is someone we want investigating or prosecuting people who are not part of the Great Trump Criminal Conspiracy Network, he's a Lawn Order rear end in a top hat who hates criminals and alleged criminals and probably people who look like they might be criminals i have been asserting two things: A) based on his history and apparent nature, he is not going to give up and let Donald and friends skate in the wake of today B) based on his history and apparent nature, he is not going to be letting Donald and friends off the hook because they are Republicans and he is a Republican and everything you have posted on the topic has supported A and B A and B are all I'm saying that's it
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Nov 8, 2018 01:22
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Z. Autobahn posted:As soon as the 538 model glitched out, I had to close my computer and go play videogames for two hours to avoid a full-blown panic meltdown. When I came back, I fully expected the House to be red, so it was honestly a pleasant surprise. It made me queasy years ago when folks ITT were talking about Donnelly being required for the senate. I didn't know our odds at the time but as a Hoosier I knew Donnelly's, and I couldn't get across the notion that we were just gonna have to do it without him.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:23
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Conspiratiorist posted:You hit Miami with a massive hurricane, insurance primes skyrocket between risk assessments from further increased-intensity hurricanes and revised SLR projections, and capital just up and flees the state since it'd happen in the context of an existing global economic crisis. No rebuilding, no effective mitigation measures taken - the money goes where it's safer. Why wouldn't the state just cut social services and then give the financials a nice big check to cover rebuilding and more?
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Nov 8, 2018 01:23
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drat, I'm glad there's at least one journalist outfit left in America willing to say the truth lol.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:24
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:They both decided to pretend to be Republicans less than a month before the election. They did, but the polls were still wildly off right up to the election. McCaskill/Hawley specifically was 49/49 for like 5 consecutive days before the election. 538 had all the polls at a tie and listed it as a tossup on Monday.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:24
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Z. Autobahn posted:Do you... do you want me to recount the history of America, the Civil War, Reconstruction, the Civil Rights Act, etc? The question of 'why are Southern states racist' is... pretty well documented. 
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Nov 8, 2018 01:24
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https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1060324232998146048
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Nov 8, 2018 01:24
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Lightning Knight posted:It's probably going to be a lot of symbolic bills and grandstanding from 2020 hopefuls basically, but Democrats gridlocking the Trump Administration is a Good Thing imo. Deified Data posted:Your mom is right, we're gonna be obstructionist as gently caress. This is good because we are good. When they did it it was bad because they were bad. It sounds simplistic but it's clear. They believe the same thing about us, which is why calling people on their hypocrisy is pointless, they don't acknowledge it as such. When they go low we kick them. F_Shit_Fitzgerald posted:Yep, and I welcome it. Trump being obstructed means, at minimum, that he isn't able to get away as easily with the blatant corruption and poo poo-eating policies he and the GOP have been pushing, like getting rid of protections for pre-existing conditions and putting kids in concentration camps. We needed a check on Trump and we got it. That he chose today to jettison Sessions and endanger Mueller is an indication of how scared he is of Democrats carrying on investigations. Oh, it's not the obstruction I'm worried about, I'm loving thrilled dems got a chokehold on the House rather than having the entire government turned into a tyranny of all Republican majority. It's fantastic. It's the "handing 2020 to Trump on a silver platter" that worries me. The next two years we're going to see the wingnuts get madder and madder and more intense, and it only follows that there's going to be an enormous surge of red votes because of it. I can only hope the morale dems gain from getting this chokehold will inspire the same passion.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:25
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cheetah7071 posted:It means that the way you abolish the senate it by stripping it of its power, rather than actually abolishing it I personally have zero problem with Senate being around as a purely advisory body. I'd rather lovely elder "statesmen" retire there than lobbying groups.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:25
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I don't think the modern Democratic Party is ever going to win back the segregations' votes. (Nor should they.)
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Nov 8, 2018 01:25
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Conspiratiorist posted:You hit Miami with a massive hurricane, insurance primes skyrocket between risk assessments from further increased-intensity hurricanes and revised SLR projections, and capital just up and flees the state since it'd happen in the context of an existing global economic crisis. No rebuilding, no effective mitigation measures taken - the money goes where it's safer. this is a much more interesting proposition i don't quite have the chops to discuss mitigation measures, although I have a little familiarity with them; I think we have a while yet before not-Miami mitigation stuff starts running into serious issues, but that's second- or third-hand at best i'd be interested in reading additional poo poo on the topic, although maybe it should be posted in the Climate Thread or something rather than this one 
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Nov 8, 2018 01:26
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:Conservatives are only about 30% of the population. Dems are failing with regular non-reactionary people. How many can realistically be swayed to vote though? In my mind Beto was the perfect candidate to do exactly that, unconventional, not establishment, leftist program, charismatic, and while he almost did the impossible, it's certainly not something that's going to get enough seats to abolish the senate, or establishing reeducation camps for racist rural voters or anything drastic, ffs with the lukewarm "win" yesterday, even abolishing ICE or getting statehoods for the territories seems like out of the question.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:26
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