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Also I know hypocrisy isn't real and neither is nuance but I'm not looking forward to hearing the Fox News standup segment of "Dems choose to ignore elections they don't like" given uhh, the last two cycles
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 21:29 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 11:43 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:NH can hold the primary whenever they want, but the DNC won't recognize their delegates if they don't have it on the appointed day. Similar to what happened in 2008 with Michigan and Florida. Right. And NH absolutely will not move it’s primary date. One reason being we are a fairly small state that actually has pretty well run elections and as such we can react a lot more easily to changing dates than other states. I’m a NH resident and I think it’s a good idea to adjust some of this stuff to have less white states go sooner but then I saw the DNC handed the first 2024 primary to SC instead of a more progressive state so gently caress them. California, NY, and NJ have more diverse populations than SC but no we gotta have the state that saved Biden go first. To me this looks more like a show of appealing to fairness while trying to ensure they can put their thumb on the scale for more centrist candidates.
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 21:37 |
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funkymonks posted:Right. And NH absolutely will not move it’s primary date. One reason being we are a fairly small state that actually has pretty well run elections and as such we can react a lot more easily to changing dates than other states. Is the SC Democratic primary electorate actually more centrist than a different equivalent state? It's more that they are more favorable to candidates popular with black voters (which are usually not the same as the candidates popular with the white liberal activist base, so it can lead to more centrist results), but not necessarily more centrist ideologically. Jesse Jackson, Obama, and John Edwards all won South Carolina. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:51 on Dec 5, 2022 |
# ? Dec 5, 2022 21:48 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Real ID for air travel has become the new Medicare provider cuts - they just get delayed every single year for decades.
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 21:52 |
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It's been hard living with COVID for the past 17 years
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 21:58 |
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funkymonks posted:Right. And NH absolutely will not move it’s primary date. One reason being we are a fairly small state that actually has pretty well run elections and as such we can react a lot more easily to changing dates than other states. California and New York are wildly larger and more expensive states to campaign in, as is the Philadelphia media market which you would need to make ad buys in for NJ
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 22:32 |
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funkymonks posted:I’m a NH resident and I think it’s a good idea to adjust some of this stuff to have less white states go sooner but then I saw the DNC handed the first 2024 primary to SC instead of a more progressive state so gently caress them. California, NY, and NJ have more diverse populations than SC but no we gotta have the state that saved Biden go first. NYT's post-concession reporting matches reporting leading in to the primary: The Sanders campaign didn't care about South Carolina performance and felt that their resources were better spent elsewhere. quote:There were also serious operational mistakes: In South Carolina, the campaign effectively deputized a former Ohio state senator and loyal surrogate, Nina Turner, to direct strategy, rather than empowering a political strategist to run the pivotal early state. quote:The pollster, Ben Tulchin, in a meeting with campaign aides, recommended a new offensive to influence older black voters, according to three people briefed on his presentation. The data showed two clear vulnerabilities for Mr. Biden: his past support for overhauling Social Security, and his authorship of a punitive criminal justice law in the 1990s. Stop me if you've heard this before: We're going to put her in charge of a task we feel is impossible and deny her the support and resources she says she needs because it's actually not important to our strategy at all. The story also reproduces a memo arguing that their internal polling showing a 4% loss was far more accurate than the public polling that accurately predicted the shellacking... one of a few listed examples of the campaign being high on its own supply. The campaign strategy was that they'd have no chance with older black voters and that was fine because they didn't need them to win. What they apparently(?) failed to recognize is that the rest of the field would see the obvious: There was no path to victory if nobody was splitting delegates in South Carolina and a huge chunk of Super Tuesday, and none of their asses were anywhere near viability in those states. To reiterate from an earlier post on this: Bernie received 4 more delegates from Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada combined than Biden did from Alabama on Super Tuesday. In practice, this is the furthest thing from putting their thumb on the scales for centrists--- it takes what has spent the past 2 cycles as a centrist gimmie and carves it up to a much wider field. Still, this is the DNC, so I can't dismiss the idea they're trying to rig it and are too dumb to realize it'll have the opposite effect... Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Is the SC Democratic primary electorate actually more centrist than a different equivalent state? It's more that they are more favorable to candidates popular with black voters (which are usually not the same as the candidates popular with the white liberal activist base, so it can lead to more centrist results), but not necessarily more centrist ideologically. I'm going to quote an informative C-SPAM post here because I can't be arsed to recreate the analysis: galenanorth posted:https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-caucuses/entrance-and-exit-polls Overall it's mostly a trio of arguments that get my hackles up here and the thread has seen a version of all 3 in the past week:
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 22:41 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Is the SC Democratic primary electorate actually more centrist than a different equivalent state? It's more that they are more favorable to candidates popular with black voters (which are usually not the same as the candidates popular with the white liberal activist base, so it can lead to more centrist results), but not necessarily more centrist ideologically. Exit polls at the time suggested that the South Carolina Dem primary electorate had more people who self-identified as moderate or conservative than Iowa, NH, and Nevada did, and Biden led Sanders among those groups. However, Biden also led Sanders among self-identified "liberal" or "very liberal" voters. The defining features of South Carolina's Democratic primary in 2020 weren't ideology, but rather age and race. The voters were majority black and overwhelmingly old, and both black voters and old voters generally preferred Biden over Bernie. Meanwhile, white South Carolinan Dems were noticeably less favorable toward Biden, and young white voters hated him the most by far. NBC's exit polls laid it out pretty starkly: You can see Biden's support grow as the voters get younger, but even among the youngest groups, he's still doing way better with black voters than with white voters. Meanwhile, only the oldest whites appeared to like Biden, with the youngest whites even preferring the likes of Buttigieg or Warren over Biden.
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 22:46 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The largest single recipient of Covid relief funds in 2020 was the Chinese government. I haven’t been able to tell where in the article it says the Chinese government was the recipient. it kind of goes out of its way to avoid saying that imo. quote:Hackers [linked to the Chinese government](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/china-hacked-least-six-us-state-governments-report-says-rcna19255) stole at least $20 million in U.S. Covid relief benefits, including Small Business Administration loans and unemployment insurance funds in over a dozen states, according to [the Secret Service](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/crime-courts/secret-service-recovers-286-million-stolen-covid-relief-funds-rcna44886).
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 22:47 |
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Nothing underhanded, really. The heart of the Confederacy voted for the segregationist, and everybody else sighed in relief that they finally had the silver bullet to stop the commie. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 22:47 |
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Riptor posted:California and New York are wildly larger and more expensive states to campaign in, as is the Philadelphia media market which you would need to make ad buys in for NJ You'd have to buy NYC ads as well for NJ, which for obvious reasons is expensive as hell. A smaller state going first makes a lot of sense, it makes door-to-door campaign count more and benefits less well-funded and well-known candidates, which I think is a decent bias to have towards the beginning of the cycle. On the other hand smaller states tend to be less diverse, so you need to find the right balance of size and diversity, which leaves us with .... Hawaii?
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 22:57 |
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mawarannahr posted:I haven’t been able to tell where in the article it says the Chinese government was the recipient. it kind of goes out of its way to avoid saying that imo. Yeah, I was being a little facetious. The group (APT41) is also the same group behind the "Double Dragon" attacks that were contracted by the Chinese Ministry of Defense. This specific attack may have been China looking the other way and allowing them to take the money instead of China actually taking the money directly.
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 22:57 |
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ninjahedgehog posted:You'd have to buy NYC ads as well for NJ, which for obvious reasons is expensive as hell. Maryland, Delaware, Wisconsin, and Colorado are fairly small and diverse states. Sadly, none of them were even in consideration. Minnesota is pretty close to fitting the bill and was almost picked to be one of the first states. Also, they are going to "review" the state line up every cycle (but, that doesn't mean they are definitely going to change them every cycle), so the 2024 lineup might be kind of pointless if Biden runs again.
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 23:02 |
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ninjahedgehog posted:You'd have to buy NYC ads as well for NJ, which for obvious reasons is expensive as hell. Right i meant that in addition to all the negatives about campaigning for NY, NJ also would necessitate a second premium ad market. It's the worst of all worlds
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 23:03 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Maryland, Delaware, Wisconsin, and Colorado are fairly small and diverse states. Washington State. Hawaii would also be an excellent candidate. I’m not sure why everyone keeps ignoring it, but it’s sitting right there up in the corner and it’s certainly more racially diverse than Minnesota and has very large unions. It’s just weird that only one state west of the Mississippi gets the early treatment and anything touching the pacific is always ignored.
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 23:32 |
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Byzantine posted:Nothing underhanded, really. The heart of the Confederacy voted for the segregationist, and everybody else sighed in relief that they finally had the silver bullet to stop the commie. Keep wondering why you can't seem to make inroads with black democrats honky.
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# ? Dec 5, 2022 23:36 |
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Solkanar512 posted:Washington State. Hawaii would also be an excellent candidate. It’s not that much more diverse in WA just 73% white instead of 83%. Hawaii on the other hand is 24%.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 00:46 |
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This whole thread is about the consequences of the power being out in Moore county after the terror attack. I found this one to be the most interesting: https://twitter.com/A_Wilkins_/status/1599876400026378240?t=iOdQIWhGQmbnK9pFHxJynA&s=19 So, uh, at least the person who claimed to know why it happened got yelled at?
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 01:41 |
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mawarannahr posted:It’s not that much more diverse in WA just 73% white instead of 83%. Hawaii on the other hand is 24%. Race wasn’t the only criteria, which is why I mentioned union membership. Not sure why you completely ignored that.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 01:51 |
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That's not a southernism.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 01:52 |
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Twincityhacker posted:This whole thread is about the consequences of the power being out in Moore county after the terror attack. I found this one to be the most interesting: I was born and raised in rural Mississippi and have never heard word of prayer used like that. It is not a southernism.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 01:56 |
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BonoMan posted:I was born and raised in rural Mississippi and have never heard word of prayer used like that. It is not a southernism. I grew up in NC a bit more than an hour from where this happened and I've never heard it used that way either.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 02:01 |
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Maybe it's just in their town? IDK, the dude was interviewed by the New York Times, so I just know he a) exists and b) from there.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 03:05 |
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Well I’m from Utica and I’ve never heard anyone use the phrase
haveblue fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Dec 6, 2022 |
# ? Dec 6, 2022 03:23 |
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It's more of an Albany expression.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 04:12 |
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Hawaii should replace Iowa as perennial first. No longer would we be held hostage by phallic food at the state fair, blue jeans, and corn subsidiaries. Instead our elections will be based on luaus, Hawaiian shirts, and Haoles loving off.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 04:23 |
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Gyges posted:Hawaii should replace Iowa as perennial first. No longer would we be held hostage by phallic food at the state fair, blue jeans, and corn subsidiaries. Instead our elections will be based on luaus, Hawaiian shirts, and Haoles loving off. You'd see a lot of candidates coming just to throw their hat into the Hawaii Primary and campaign there for three months straight on their donors' dime
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 04:25 |
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Morrow posted:You'd see a lot of candidates coming just to throw their hat into the Hawaii Primary and campaign there for three months straight on their donors' dime Yes I was going to say it will be hard to a campaign to look like they are "working hard on the trail" when everything is in hawaii - people already complain when senators/govs are off at a corn fair.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 04:29 |
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Problematic Pigeon posted:It's more of an Albany expression. Goddamnit I was just coming to make that reply!
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 04:34 |
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I support Hawaii primary if it means we can use Spam as the great filter.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 04:49 |
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7c Nickel posted:Keep wondering why you can't seem to make inroads with black democrats honky. Well, you've at least got to be happy now, you got the candidate you wanted?
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 05:09 |
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Can't wait to see Ted Cruz order a shaved ice with absolutely no flavors or toppings on it.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 05:47 |
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How are primaries coordinated between the parties. Like the Dems want South Carolina to be first, but what if the GOP wants it to stay where it is?
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 07:06 |
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Ither posted:How are primaries coordinated between the parties. The parties bear the cost for holding the primary elections, that doesn't change if they are on the same day or different days. There might be some savings for having them on the same day in each state, but there isn't a requirement.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 10:55 |
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Old James posted:The parties bear the cost for holding the primary elections, that doesn't change if they are on the same day or different days. It does cause issues for the parties as far as getting voters to show up to vote though. Back when I worked at a library, every single cycle would have us explaining to people why they can't vote in the election now. Either they would show up to vote for the city elections, we weren't part of the city, or for the wrong primary date because of which news they were watching. The best were when people would show up demanding to vote on Super Tuesday. We are not a Super Tuesday state, usually voting before then.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 11:04 |
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beerinator posted:I grew up in NC a bit more than an hour from where this happened and I've never heard it used that way either. I was born and raised in NC and I knew it the way the sheriff said. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be skeptical.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 13:22 |
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Gyges posted:Can't wait to see Ted Cruz order a shaved ice with absolutely no flavors or toppings on it. That'd be his preferred way since he absorbs it through his skin.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 14:41 |
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beerinator posted:I grew up in NC a bit more than an hour from where this happened and I've never heard it used that way either. Also grew up an hour from Moore County and I’ve never heard that bullshit expression.
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 15:16 |
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Slowpoke! posted:Also grew up an hour from Moore County and I’ve never heard that bullshit expression. They should have said 'had a come to jesus meeting'
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 15:53 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 11:43 |
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Starting in August, Rick Scott and the NRSC started coming under internal firefor what smelled a lot like fraud. Luckily, there has been no controversy sinc: https://twitter.com/isaac_schorr/status/1599864936250761216 https://twitter.com/isaac_schorr/status/1599864942651658241 https://twitter.com/isaac_schorr/status/1599864947714191360 https://twitter.com/isaac_schorr/status/1599864953070301185 Schorr, for reference, is a former National Review Online guy so this isn't exactly Scott slapfighting with lefty media
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# ? Dec 6, 2022 16:15 |