[Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($25 delivery fee)

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(Thread IKs: skooma512)

Grey Fox: Jan 5, 2004

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1748033067984552365

# ? Jan 18, 2024 18:28

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 25, 2024 22:45

Mandel Brotset: Jan 1, 2024

Slow News Day posted:

You realize y'all have been saying this for well over a year right? That recession is right around the corner (or, on the more unhinged side, that we are actually in one but the government is lying)?

Is the goal here to continue saying it until you are eventually proven right, and then smugly go "heh, I told you"?

the economist michael hudson calls it the long depression and you have to believe him because he has a phd you sniveling weasel boom gottem

# ? Jan 18, 2024 18:28

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Slow News Day posted:

You realize y'all have been saying this for well over a year right? That recession is right around the corner (or, on the more unhinged side, that we are actually in one but the government is lying)?

Is the goal here to continue saying it until you are eventually proven right, and then smugly go "heh, I told you"?

So what part of my post are you disagreeing with

# ? Jan 18, 2024 18:28

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:

the US "economy" has been miserable for working class people since 2008,

From Owned: A Tale of Two Americas at about the hour mark:

These were from 2008, during the height of the housing bubble, in a suburb of Las Vegas. These same houses go for $650K+ now. 2008 looks like a magical egalitarian wonderland compared to today.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 18:31

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Just in case anyone might be unaware of how incredibly stupid SND is:

Unemployment being low before recessions and high immediately after is pretty much the most basic of facts about the US economy.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 18:35

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1747817301359866232

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:03

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

FizFashizzle posted:

Corporations hoovering hospital systems will eventually lead to subscription services to specific groups. Instead of BCBS, you�ll pay x hundred a month directly to HCA. they�ll have different service tiers based on risk stratification.

Healthy guy in your twenties who works a desk job? We�ll toss in life flight for 80% off.

Older with cancer? Youre perfect for our premier package. You�ll never wait for an ambulance. Our team will work with your Medicare advantage provider to make this work financially for you.

This is one of the reasons they�re shuttering rural hospitals and urgent care. This model can�t work in that setting.

isn't that the case already for some ACO REACH providers?

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:03

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Mandel Brotset posted:

the economist michael hudson calls it the long depression and you have to believe him because he has a phd you sniveling weasel boom gottem

Michael Chudson

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:06

Zodium: Jun 19, 2004

mawarannahr posted:

Michael Chudson

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:08

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

webcams for christ posted:

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1747817301359866232

Lies

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:10

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

webcams for christ posted:

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1747817301359866232

This is one of those weirdo right wing conspiracy theories they've been planting for a while, I heard an AM radio commercial about how you need to buy gold now before the "Central Bank Digital Currency comes" and I went and looked up what the gently caress they were talking about

https://www.politico.eu/article/digital-euro-currency-conspiracy-theory-marc-friedrich-jorg-meuthen-european-central-bank-surveillance/

besides we already have a central bank digital currency, it's called the dollar

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:13

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

This is one of those weirdo right wing conspiracy theories they've been planting for a while, I heard an AM radio commercial about how you need to buy gold now before the "Central Bank Digital Currency comes" and I went and looked up what the gently caress they were talking about

https://www.politico.eu/article/digital-euro-currency-conspiracy-theory-marc-friedrich-jorg-meuthen-european-central-bank-surveillance/

besides we already have a central bank digital currency, it's called the dollar

You are dumber than poo poo

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:15

triple sulk: Sep 17, 2014

webcams for christ posted:

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1747817301359866232

mr president

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:16

skooma512: Feb 8, 2012; You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

One of my wife's friends is being fired from her job at a nursing home. She is being fired because a PE firm took the home over and she's not working hard enough to extend stays. They have a lot of people who come in after surgery or a fall or whatever for observation / recuperation and her boss told her that her 'deliverable metric' last year was to make those stays longer.

At least in that industry they'll take anyone with a pulse and I'm sure their current pay is already a poverty wage.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:17

Srice: Sep 11, 2011

In Training posted:

hell there was even a brief media panic week last year when the "technical definition" of a recession (back to back quarters of negative GDP) was breached and everybody decided to rewrite the definition and pretend it actually didn't matter.

I remember that week. It was deranged lol.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:21

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

remember the past two years of anti-homeless agitprop with the intent to soften the public up for the introduction of laws making it okay to implement a Final Solution to the Homeless Problem? the first of I'm sure many laws to come just dropped in Kentucky criminalizing homelessness and decriminalizing killing the homeless

https://twitter.com/chadstanton/status/1747694238823821386

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:27

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Srice posted:

I remember that week. It was deranged lol.

speaking of which...
For many in China, the economy feels like it is in recession

www.reuters.com - Wed, 17 Jan 2024 posted:

SHANGHAI, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The night before China's civil service exam, Melody Zhang anxiously paced up and down the corridor of her dormitory, rehearsing her answers. Only when she got back to her room did she realise she had been crying the whole time.

Zhang was hoping to start a career in state propaganda after more than 100 unsuccessful job applications in the media industry . With a record 2.6 million people going for 39,600 government jobs amid a youth unemployment crisis, she didn't get through.

"We were born in the wrong era," said the 24-year-old graduate from China's top Renmin University.

"No one cares about their dreams and ambitions anymore in an economic downturn. The endless job-hunting is a torture."

A crisis of confidence in the economy is deterring consumers from spending and businesses from hiring and investing, in what could become a self-feeding mechanism that erodes China's long-term economic potential.

China grew 5.2% last year, more than most major economies. But for the unemployed graduates, the property owners who feel poorer as their flats are losing value, and the workers earning less than the year before, the world's second-largest economy feels like it's shrinking.

Zhu Tian, economics professor at China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, says the textbook definition of a recession - two consecutive quarters of economic contraction - should not apply to a developing country investing roughly 40% of its output annually, twice the level of the United States.

"We're in a recession," Zhu said. "If you talk to 10 people, seven will say we've had a bad year."

"I don't think the government can afford that. This cannot go on forever," he said, urging more stimulus measures to break out what could be a "vicious cycle" of low confidence that will affect young people entering the job market in particular.

## VANISHING ASPIRATIONS

More than one in four of the roughly 100 million Chinese aged 16-24 were unemployed in June, the last data point before officials suspended the series. China resumed publication of the data on Wednesday, excluding college students from it, to put youth unemployment at 14.9% in December.China's Generation Z is the most pessimistic of all age groups, surveys show.

Those who find jobs earn less than they expect as businesses cut costs in response to poor domestic demand. Recruiter Zhaopin found the average salary employers offered in China's 38 biggest cities fell by 1.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

For an economy which expanded roughly 60-fold in dollar terms since the 1980s, this is a historical shift in mood. That success was achieved largely through gigantic investments in manufacturing and infrastructure, but that model began producing more debt than growth about a decade ago, with total borrowing now reaching levels China struggles to service.

Meanwhile, China trained its students for high-skilled jobs in the services sector rather than factory or construction work. Subdued household consumption and regulatory crackdowns on the finance, tech and education industries have diminished their opportunities.

Janice Zhang, 34, had worked in the tech industry until late 2022 when she quit to handle a family emergency, confident she could easily find a new job given her experience and U.S. education.

But Zhang only found a social media marketing position, where she was expected to put in 15-hour shifts, so she quit after a short while.

The state of the economy makes her feel like a "grain of sand on the beach," unable to control her own destiny, she said.

"In China, this word 'aspiration' has been driving everyone, because they believed tomorrow will be the best time. What I'm trying to conquer in my life now is, in a way, healing the disappointment tomorrow is going to bring."

## PROPERTY CRISIS

Vincent Li, the owner of a high-end coffee shop in Shanghai, took a one-two punch that he says knocked him out of the middle class.

As Chinese cut spending, they prefer cheaper coffee. And the two apartments he bought for 4 million yuan ($558,612) in 2017 on the touristy Hainan island haven't attracted any renting or buying interest in three years.

"The property market is saturated," Li said.

In China, 96% of the roughly 300 million urban households owned at least one apartment in 2019, according to the latest central bank data. A third owned two, and a tenth owned more.

About 70% of household savings are invested in property.

In some cities, apartments have lost two thirds of their value since the real estate market downturn began in 2021, property agents said, making their owners feel less wealthy and slash their spending.

The property sector, which accounted for roughly a quarter of economic activity at its peak, is now seen as a key threat to China's attempts to escape the middle-income trap.

"The big risk is that the fallout from diminishing old growth sources could become too large to contain and inhibit new growth sources. If that happens, China could become stuck in transition," said Yuen Yuen Ang, Alfred Chandler Chair of Political Economy at Johns Hopkins University.

It is not just domestic policies impacting life in China. Diplomatic tensions with the West over Taiwan, Ukraine and the South China Sea have contributed to its first ever foreign investment deficit.

Trade bodies have raised alarm over raids on consultancies and due diligence firms and exit bans, among other issues.

U.S. tech restrictions on China prevent David Fincher's consultancy in Shanghai from doing business in leading-edge semiconductors, blocking off a key source of income.

He is considering moving overseas, fearing more diplomatic tensions or new regulatory shifts from Beijing could make his business untenable.

"You feel like a lobster in a pot," Fincher said. "The water gets hotter and you just kind of sit there."

"I worry about Beijing as much as everybody else."

($1 = 7.1606 Chinese yuan renminbi)

_{Casey has reported on China's consumer culture from her base in Shanghai for more than a decade, covering what Chinese consumers are buying, and the broader social and economic trends driving those consumption trends. The Australian-born journalist has lived in China since 2007.}

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:27

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

SlimGoodbody posted:

This was interesting. Where IS the rent money going?

https://www.tiktok.com/@sir_mykl/video/7325121911241968942?_t=8j7hndLSWYU&_r=1

art of the deal baby

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:29

Euphoriaphone: Aug 10, 2006

Piss Stain Johnson posted:

I randomly came across the site Manifold, which is a weird play-money (not crypto) betting market for mensa rationalist dipshits. Users ask questions in polls and other users can bet on odds of things over time. Not sure how it pays the monopoly money out or determines what is true.

One of the top questions is Which of these bad policies will the US abolish by 2050?, which includes options such as "affirmative action", "rent control", and "payroll tax".

Why do it with play money when you can do it with the real deal?

https://kalshi.com/

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:35

Nothus: Feb 22, 2001; Buglord

Grey Fox posted:

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1748033067984552365

Portnoy is an all-time dumbass when it comes to trading. Reminds me of the time he managed to lose his rear end during the AMC stonk pump.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:48

MickeyFinn: May 8, 2007; Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

mawarannahr posted:

speaking of which...
For many in China, the economy feels like it is in recession

quote:

In China, this word 'aspiration' has been driving everyone, because they believed tomorrow will be the best time. What I'm trying to conquer in my life now is, in a way, healing the disappointment tomorrow is going to bring.

This is so rad.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:50

Canned Sunshine: Nov 20, 2005; CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION

SlimGoodbody posted:

This was interesting. Where IS the rent money going?

https://www.tiktok.com/@sir_mykl/video/7325121911241968942?_t=8j7hndLSWYU&_r=1

What money

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:51

Glumwheels: Jan 25, 2003; https://twitter.com/BidenHQ

SlimGoodbody posted:

This was interesting. Where IS the rent money going?

https://www.tiktok.com/@sir_mykl/video/7325121911241968942?_t=8j7hndLSWYU&_r=1

https://truthout.org/articles/asset-management-firms-are-gaining-power-over-housing-hospitals-water-and-more/

This is where the money is going (blackrock profit) because maintenance means less profit.

There was another article awhile back but I can�t find it that said companies like blackrock have bought so many homes that they can�t keep up with the maintenance (and don�t want to). They�re making renters cover maintenance themselves or renters are having to wait months for fixes because blackrock won�t/can�t send a crew out to fix the problem because they�re overwhelmed and now they�re not finding companies since they don�t pay them for work they�ve done.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:52

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

Yeah, the next frontier in renting is explicitly making the renter responsible for maintenance in the lease. What are they going to do about it

# ? Jan 18, 2024 19:53

Glumwheels: Jan 25, 2003; https://twitter.com/BidenHQ

In commercial real estate it�s normal to see renters have to pay for things like that but not in residential. In many cases they even pay for property taxes, insurance, in addition to maintenance.

Look for that next with homes/apartmentd as blackrock continues to try and turn a profit in residential property management or as they call it �asset management�.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 20:09

Smythe: Oct 12, 2003

FizFashizzle posted:

If a transparent manufactured corporate partnership can�t find happiness then what chance do normal guys like us have?

https://x.com/delish/status/1747695487149326445?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA

i hope taylor deigns to date me if they break up

# ? Jan 18, 2024 20:19

OBAMNA PHONE: Aug 7, 2002

sure would be a shame if a database of all of blackrock's residential properties existed, ya know, in case arsonists needed something to scratch their itch with

# ? Jan 18, 2024 20:23

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

lol right on time

new frontiers in price gouging

# ? Jan 18, 2024 20:29

Zurtilik: Oct 23, 2015; The Biggest Brain in Guardia

Rude of you to charge your tenants that, PFC.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 20:30

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

lol right on time

new frontiers in price gouging

Why would you do this to your tenets?

# ? Jan 18, 2024 20:31

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

OBAMNA PHONE posted:

sure would be a shame if a database of all of blackrock's residential properties existed, ya know, in case arsonists needed something to scratch their itch with

Setting fire to people's homes is kot the answer OP

# ? Jan 18, 2024 20:32

Floor is lava: May 14, 2007; Fallen Rib

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

lol right on time

new frontiers in price gouging

gotta channel your inner http://www.emailsfromanasshole.dontevenreply.com/

# ? Jan 18, 2024 20:38

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Floor is lava posted:

gotta channel your inner http://www.emailsfromanasshole.dontevenreply.com/

yeah sure, tenants can all famously tell their landlords to gently caress off if they want to renew their lease

# ? Jan 18, 2024 21:40

Kreeblah: May 17, 2004; INSERT QUACK TO CONTINUE; Taco Defender

Glumwheels posted:

In commercial real estate it�s normal to see renters have to pay for things like that but not in residential. In many cases they even pay for property taxes, insurance, in addition to maintenance.

Look for that next with homes/apartmentd as blackrock continues to try and turn a profit in residential property management or as they call it �asset management�.

I've been assuming for a while that residential triple net leases are coming at some point.

After all, why should landlords assume any risk at all? They should just passively receive money from their lessers with no further obligations, as is their due.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 21:44

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1747986449356702128

# ? Jan 18, 2024 21:49

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Microplastics posted:

What would goons recommend as an alternative? Is bing any good?

I use duckduckgo, I wish I could say it was "good". it's not, but it's better than google these days. google circa 2013ish was the best

# ? Jan 18, 2024 21:51

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

shrike82 posted:

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1747954598109741131?s=20

they've been claiming to IPO for like 4 years now and keep pushing it back because it's going to be a disaster

i think they might actually do it this time but it's still going to be a disaster. rip reddit. the new-new UI they're pushing (because its better for 'advertising') is completely unusable, and when they IPO will likely kill old. and new. formats.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 21:58

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

triple sulk posted:

no chance i think. they're worthless, completely unprofitable, and bleeding incredible amounts of cash

which sure, is a great recipe for the leadership to cash out, but i just don't think it's happening. they tried to get acquired like 3 years ago, it failed, and now no one wants to touch that trash

they'll be dead in a few years and a ton of walled off information will be gone with it

i think there's a good chance Microsoft might dump like $40 billion to buy discord at some point to roll it into the "Cortana MS Ecosystem", but who knows. i wouldn't rule out an IPO for the investors trying to cash out

# ? Jan 18, 2024 21:58

KirbyKhan: Mar 20, 2009; Soiled Meat

webcams for christ posted:

yeah sure, tenants can all famously tell their landlords to gently caress off if they want to renew their lease

gently caress em. Be rude. If they were gonna break lease they already decided to do that long before anyone got rude with them.

# ? Jan 18, 2024 21:59

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 25, 2024 22:45

H.P. Hovercraft: Jan 12, 2004; one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse; Slippery Tilde

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

lol right on time

new frontiers in price gouging

lol that this is legal at all (apparently bulk deals like this are)

thanks fcc keep up the good work

# ? Jan 18, 2024 22:00

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($25 delivery fee)

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