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cruft posted:Is this cryptocurrency bullshit still happening? The thread's been kind of quiet, maybe that means there's a hot new way to destroy the planet would you believe that people are currently supposedly paying $70k for a thing that doesn't actually have any use whatsoever?
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Mar 26, 2024 14:18
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EMoney posted:I was thinking of a way to value/price BTC for explaining to a friend. Let's say that btc has a 25% chance of going to 0 in the next 10 years. That includes regulatory risk, hacks, climate fud, satoshi returns etc.. All the bad stuff (I think 25% is too high, but a normie would agree on that.) The flipside of that is 75% chance of success. Meaning all the bad stuff goes away. So only good left and it moons. Let's price that at 1million BTC in 10 years (which I think is reasonable). Doing a standard gambling expected value calculation (.25*0 + .75*1000000), you get an expected value of 750k in 10 years. Using a net present value calculator and the 10yr bond yield (4.5%), you get a value today of ~480k. And that's with pricing a 25% chance of going to 0. TLDR Buttcoin follows the market, as people intentionally tie it to the market - but acting like there's a justification? excuse me..  
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Mar 26, 2024 14:20
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lets be reasonable and say there's just a 75% chance of all of the bad things about bitcoin vanishing and the price goes to one million, therefore
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Mar 26, 2024 14:23
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EMoney posted:I was thinking
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Mar 26, 2024 14:25
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Boxturret posted:lets be reasonable and say there's just a 75% chance of all of the bad things about bitcoin vanishing and the price goes to one million, therefore No it's a 100% chance. The only question is how many people get affected by any given wallet hack or vulnerability etc. The number of affected people does go up continually. As we already know, some amount of Bitcoin is even just lost forever. So there's more than zero people affected.
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Mar 26, 2024 14:28
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EMoney posted:I was thinking of a way to value/price BTC for explaining to a friend. Let's say that btc has a 25% chance of going to 0 in the next 10 years. That includes regulatory risk, hacks, climate fud, satoshi returns etc.. All the bad stuff (I think 25% is too high, but a normie would agree on that.) The flipside of that is 75% chance of success. Meaning all the bad stuff goes away. So only good left and it moons. Let's price that at 1million BTC in 10 years (which I think is reasonable). Doing a standard gambling expected value calculation (.25*0 + .75*1000000), you get an expected value of 750k in 10 years. Using a net present value calculator and the 10yr bond yield (4.5%), you get a value today of ~480k. And that's with pricing a 25% chance of going to 0. Pascal's wager, but for bitcoin?
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Mar 26, 2024 14:56
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EMoney posted:gambling This post confirmed my bias.
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Mar 26, 2024 14:58
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There's rapidly dwindling reasons not to use Bitcoin as a hedge but A. That's more indicative of the poor ability of regulators to manage new and worthless asset categories that exist only to hedge in antisocial ways B. Normies don't need antisocial hedges and anyone telling you that you do has crypto or metallics to sell you
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Mar 26, 2024 15:15
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Boxturret posted:lets be reasonable and say there's just a 75% chance of all of the bad things about bitcoin vanishing and the price goes to one million, therefore 75% of going to 0, 25% of going to a million. NPV = 160k
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Mar 26, 2024 15:19
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EMoney posted:75% of going to 0, 25% of going to a million. NPV = 160k flipping your numbers around just shows how meaningless they are
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Mar 26, 2024 15:27
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What do those numbers spell for Samoa Joe?
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Mar 26, 2024 15:27
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EMoney posted:75% of going to 0, 25% of going to a million. NPV = 160k "Normies" pushing back a lot more than you anticipated?
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Mar 26, 2024 15:43
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RIP KuCoin, the DOJ unsealed an indictment today:doj posted:As alleged, in failing to implement even basic anti-money laundering policies, the defendants allowed KuCoin to operate in the shadows of the financial markets and be used as a haven for illicit money laundering, with KuCoin receiving over $5 billion and sending over $4 billion of suspicious and criminal funds oops
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Mar 26, 2024 16:35
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HootTheOwl posted:The language would allow you to write at unallocated space, but the os won't It absolutely will as long as it's in an allocated page with write permissions, normally traditionally at a 4k granularity. All bets off in the deep embedded world as well of course. (in some cases OS? What's that?)
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Mar 26, 2024 16:49
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drk posted:RIP KuCoin, the DOJ unsealed an indictment today: Uhm... https://twitter.com/kucoincom/status/1772649807972315170
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Mar 26, 2024 16:53
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EMoney posted:I was thinking of a way to value/price BTC for explaining to a friend. Let's say that btc has a 25% chance of going to 0 in the next 10 years. That includes regulatory risk, hacks, climate fud, satoshi returns etc.. All the bad stuff (I think 25% is too high, but a normie would agree on that.) The flipside of that is 75% chance of success. Meaning all the bad stuff goes away. So only good left and it moons. Let's price that at 1million BTC in 10 years (which I think is reasonable). Doing a standard gambling expected value calculation (.25*0 + .75*1000000), you get an expected value of 750k in 10 years. Using a net present value calculator and the 10yr bond yield (4.5%), you get a value today of ~480k. And that's with pricing a 25% chance of going to 0. why does it go to a million. like work this out. remember: value and the economy is goods and services. money is just a lubricant for us to exchange goods and services. at one million dollars per btc, you have btc worth approximately $21 trillion. that is, approximately, one quarter of all goods and services created by the entire planet. so you are assuming that, for some reason, we transfer a quarter of the goods and services created this year to btc holders for, uh, some reason. why does a different form of money create sufficient new value that we transfer one quarter of all goods and services created by the entire planet to btc holders. remember: we can just invent BTC 2.0 and transfer exactly zero to them, if there is some value that blockchains create. in what way does bitcoin create $21 trillion of new value, i.e. $21 trillion of goods and services that would not exist otherwise (above the cost of inputs).
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Mar 26, 2024 19:27
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even if you were to assume that you value bitcoin by weighting between the "bear case" (this is all stupid and everyone involved is a moron) and the "bull case" (actually this is a great idea, going to be great), you have to have some reason you value bitcoin in the "bull case" and there never is any effort to value what that would actually be, instead of wildly selecting high numbers. ultimately, abstract financial and legal things (e.g. stocks, bonds, corporations, etc) are valuable because at the bottom, there is value creation: someone is taking some land, some iron, some sand, and a lot of labor and turning that into a factory that generates products that are much more valuable than the inputs, and you get a share of that surplus value. since that is uncertain, you can have speculative manias (how much extra value will this company generate, if any? what's it worth?). but that is all bottomed on actual value creation somewhere. because again, money is not real value. goods and services are the only thing that's real value. we just use money to eliminate the transaction fees of, say, a lawyer who wants a computer finding a computer-maker who needs legal help to barter a trade. so ok, we turn over our entire financial system to blockchains. that must have generated surplus value for us to do it. pretend that surplus value entirely accrues to bitcoin holders: how much value is that? because that's the only way you create a "bull case" that is anything other than a never-ending series of greater fools. and everyone has pretty much given up on pretending there is any.
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Mar 26, 2024 19:34
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Somebody fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Mar 26, 2024 |
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Mar 26, 2024 20:04
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auto repair shop posted:Bitcoin Wait... is this thread a honeypot? Are assholes actually coming here for serious debate?
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Mar 26, 2024 20:15
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Squashy Nipples posted:Wait... is this thread a honeypot? Are assholes actually coming here for serious debate?
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Mar 26, 2024 20:17
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNwQOTnxbPk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HnWp65QZMk
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Mar 26, 2024 20:18
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If bitcoiners are butters, then buttcoiners are Bitters. The Something Awful Forums > Main > General Bullshit > Bittercoin: Sunk Loss Fallacy
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Mar 26, 2024 20:22
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oh wow I actually caught one of these manic posts in real time
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Mar 26, 2024 20:23
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Squashy Nipples posted:Wait... is this thread a honeypot? Are assholes actually coming here for serious debate? It's one person who keeps spending  for people to not read their posts.
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Mar 26, 2024 20:24
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auto repair shop posted:There is no serious debate to be found here. Every nocoiner argument ever made in these threads has been thoroughly debunked. SA Nocoiners have been wrong for 15 years and counting. Ya'll are a laughing stock at this point tbf. Why is this SO important to you? Why do you need us so badly to believe you? Can't you just exploit our ignorance to make extra money?
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Mar 26, 2024 20:26
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Squashy Nipples posted:Why is this SO important to you?
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Mar 26, 2024 20:26
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I'm not clicking on that, this is a text-base forum. Use your words like a grown up.
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Mar 26, 2024 20:27
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Squashy Nipples posted:I'm not clicking on that, this is a text-base forum. Use your words like a grown up. Profiteering and trolling this dead gay comedy forum are not mutually exclusive HTH But also, you're welcome for the free financial education. Like drat, talk about ingratitude.
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Mar 26, 2024 20:28
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SA appears to have evolved its own version of The Undertaker Threw Mankind Off Hell in a Cell
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Mar 26, 2024 20:28
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evilweasel posted:value creation: someone is taking some land, some iron, some sand, and a lot of labor and turning that into a factory that generates products that are You seem well-informed about this stuff, or at least well-spoken. Is there a branch of economic theory that takes the supply of land, iron, and sand into account? Economists I've spoken with in the past seem to universally assume these are infinite. Related: is there a branch of economic theory that assigns a value to the land, iron, and sand staying where they are?
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Mar 26, 2024 20:30
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cruft posted:You seem well-informed about this stuff, or at least well-spoken. Is there a branch of economic theory that takes the supply of land, iron, and sand into account? Economists I've spoken with in the past seem to universally assume these are infinite. https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Game-Theoretic-Analysis-Gruyter-Textbook/dp/3110772833/ref=sr_1_1
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Mar 26, 2024 20:32
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Mar 26, 2024 20:33
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FistEnergy posted:US baseload electricity consumption has been fairly stagnant for the past 5-10 years with only a gradual upward trend. The loss of American manufacturing and stronger efficiency standards have held things in check. That's going to change significantly between 2025 and 2030 based on the federal and regional studies I have access to, primarily due to a huge explosion in data centers and bitcoin miners. America is piling on the gigawatts right now, and for very little public good. It's very grim both economically and ecologically.
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Mar 26, 2024 20:42
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evilweasel posted:why does it go to a million. like work this out. remember: value and the economy is goods and services. money is just a lubricant for us to exchange goods and services. at one million dollars per btc, you have btc worth approximately $21 trillion. that is, approximately, one quarter of all goods and services created by the entire planet. well 1st, I'd expect the dollar to depreciate in value considerably. so 1million in 10 years will buy a lot less than 1 million today (that shouldn't be controversial). 2nd, gold has no real value and gold parity is @ 600k. So given that btc can be used us digital money for people around the world, twice the value of gold isn't a giant stretch. And yes, it would absorb value from real estate, stocks, art etc... Everything will bleed into BTC as it is a better store of value. 3rd, if you think "we can just invent BTC 2.0" and it'd be the same value, there is no hope in continuing to rationally discuss. At this point, if you don't see why that's not going to happen, then of course everything else is nonsense. 4th - global wealth is 500T, different than GDP
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Mar 26, 2024 20:44
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You all keep doing the forums equivalent of hitting reply-all to an accidental reply-all email dipshits
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Mar 26, 2024 20:44
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Somebody fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Mar 26, 2024 |
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Mar 26, 2024 20:46
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Bitcoin: immaculate conception of fraud
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Mar 26, 2024 20:49
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Bitcoin: immaculate conception of fraud
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Mar 26, 2024 20:50
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Pham Nuwen posted:You all keep doing the forums equivalent of hitting reply-all to an accidental reply-all email
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Mar 26, 2024 20:52
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Pham Nuwen posted:You all keep doing the forums equivalent of hitting reply-all to an accidental reply-all email unsubscibe
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Mar 26, 2024 20:54
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