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Al-Saqr posted:If the US had actually been involved more units of the army would have been involved, thousands of civilians would've been murdered, cities would be flattened and every AKP member would have been executed by firing line by now. I'm of the opinion the the US will do everything in its power to prevent democracy taking hold in the Middle East, but Erdogan has been a pretty reliable ally so there's no reason to get rid of him. So I'm going to assume that that minister is talking out of his rear end. The US thanks you for that vote of confidence.
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Jul 16, 2016 18:52
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Volkerball posted:You'd think they would have been if this dude was actually involved. They apparently arrested 10 other soldiers at the airbase as well. In any case the airspace is reopened but the base is still running on internal power for the moment. Uncertain if the police are still blocking the exits. Sorry for everyone hoping for free plat.
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Jul 17, 2016 14:49
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Brown Moses posted:Pro-Assad types now saying the artillery college in Aleppo is lost, despite them all claiming last night the attack had been pushed back I'm going to take a moment to explain the Artillery Academy thing here for people who would like to know. The regime supply line into Aleppo used to run through the South and was defended by a series of long standing military bases of which the Artillery Academy was the southern and Eastern most. These bases serve as depots for the checkpoints and defensive positions facing inward while acting as redoubts support positions against attacks toward the supply line. The Regimes Russian/Iranian backed assault last Fall which pushed the rebels back south of Aleppo had a side effect of securing the Artillery Academy against outward attacks. Since then the rebel counter offensive has taken back some territory south of Aleppo which, while it didn't directly threaten the artillery academy did give them a launching pad for this latest attack. The regime meanwhile launched a heavy attack in Northern Aleppo that over the course of a month, form the End of June to the end of July that pushed forward and managed to cut the Rebel supply route into the city in the North, which followed the Castello road. With this cut, rebel areas of east and south Aleppo were now under siege. In response a massive attack in south Aleppo was launched with the name of resupplying the cut off section of Aleppo. Over the last week they've launched a series of attacks under heavy air and artillery bombardment that first captured the remaining territory South of the Artillery base and, since yesterday have over run a large portion of the base. Attacks from inside the city are also ongoing to help break the final regime defenses. Realistically the fall of the artillery base is a huge blow to the regime as it will likely cause an inversion of the situation. Regime supplies into Aleppo must flow through a narrow open corridor in the North while rebel supplies flow through a densely built up area in the south, especially if the rebels are able to take out the Industrial areas east of the artillery base now that they've lost their most direct support. The rebels victory did not come cheaply as even if you ignore overblown regime reports of losses, rebel reports push their casualties into the hundreds, however in doing so they've taken out what should have been one of the most heavily defended positions in Aleppo. As I finished typing this the rebels have announced they've lifted the siege of Aleppo. The regime has a very small window in which they must act to recover the situation or it could continue to snowball. farraday fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Aug 6, 2016 15:11
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Will the SDF be able to do anything besides recoup their losses after Manbij finally falls? It's very likely they will be able to advance, if in a more limited fashion than the initial explosive advances of the Manbij offensive. Coalition airpower has been almost exclusively focused on Manbij and its fall allows for re-targetting. It should also not be underestimated how important winning a battle is for general morale and recruitment.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:24
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Nitrousoxide posted:How likely is an encirclement of Assad forces then? If the north is easier to take and close the pocket. It is possible but not entirely likely. The rebels lost everything on the inside west of Shiek Maqsud, which is the Kurdish district. they are under attack at Handrat camp which is their most exposed position north of the city. they may be able to hold it, but attacking from ti would be iffy at best. As you say attacking east toward the mallah farms they lost is attacking into a mostly open area which is incredibly dangerous. All that being said, with the supply line in the south, they don't need to reestablish the supply line in the north they just need to cut the regime's supply line. They can do that by pushing into the Industrial areas of Larymoun and then the residential area of Bani Zaid. This would not be easy in any sense, but could be effective. Even if they did so it seems likely to me that the kurds in sheik maqsoud might allow supplies to flow through their district into the regime areas, but the open roads north of them that are so dangerous to attack into are great fodder for ATGMs. the regime needs to push the rebels further back in the north to prevent atgm sniping of any supplies moving into the city along that route.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:35
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FaustianQ posted:Exactly how many troops would be caught in the theoretical pocket the rebels can form? I'm just wondering about the calculus on the "loyalist" side on whether or not to keep that water treatment plan functioning and intact. If they think they can't win Aleppo, but still control the treatment plant, I could see the humanitarian disaster getting even worse with it's destruction. I believe that's wastewater treatment. My understanding is much of the drinking water comes from the Euphrates through ISIS territory thanks to the al-Khafseh plant which was bombed bu Russia in December and only began operation again in March. The waste water I believe is used for irrigation just based on that aqueduct heading into the farmlands.
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Aug 6, 2016 18:46
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Under US law FMS sales are required not to cost the US money. Realistically we don't fully recover all administrative costs.
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Aug 10, 2016 14:30
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Sinteres posted:The US already responded by saying the Kurds are a critical part of the SDF and that they've promised to allow local Arab leaders to govern the Arab towns they liberate. Seems pretty clear to me that the intention is still very much for them to advance from there rather than to retreat. Besides, as soon as the Manbij offensive started it became stupidly obvious that the Kurds were going to try and unite the cantons. Manbij gives you nothing on its own.
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Aug 16, 2016 12:54
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ThingOne posted:Doesn't it cut the highway from Jarabulus to Raqqah? There is no highway from Jarabulus to Raqqa, only roads; and there are still roads you can take from Jarabulus to Raqqa. There is a marginal advantage to forcing them to take a longer route,but with Manbij you're not cutting off raqqa from the border. You must either cut the throat around Maskahna to the south or envelop Al-Bab to the west.
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Aug 16, 2016 14:37
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fade5 posted:As good a time to mention the story as any: I took an art class at a community college this summer (required for my degree, was a way more interesting class than I expected). For the final, we had to pick two pieces of modern art that shared a theme and write a paper+talk about them in a short presentation. That piece from Daraya was one of the pieces I picked for the class. I choose to believe the other was the MLP holocaust picture and no evidence or denial will shake my grip on that position. On the kurds the most interesting part for me has been the rapid escalation in rhetoric between the regime and kurds. This current fighting may end, but it's becoming clear participants recognize the relationship is deteriorating and unstable.
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Aug 20, 2016 21:32
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Nubl and Shiek Massoud seem strange locations for increased confrontation compared to Qamlishi. Clear at this point though that the government is pulling back into its core in Hasakah as initial attempts to bluff the kurds have failed and they don't have the forces to hold all their territory. Good time to surrender/defect as the amount of fighting as the kurds move forward seems minimal.
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Aug 22, 2016 22:56
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Hasakah cease fire terms. https://twitter.com/Rodi_Khalil/status/768056877766828032 The main terms of agreement of ceasefire in Hasakah 1- All clashes to stop inside the city of Hasakah from 02:00pm 23 Aug 2016 2- All recent liberated areas by YPG will be guarded and remain under control of the Kurdish Asayish security forces. 3- All Syrian regime troops, including all of its affiliated militias (except for the civil police), to withdraw from the city of Hasaka. 4- Syrian army/troops are not allowed to enter Hasakah anymore. The "security square" in the center of the city will remain under the control of Syria regime, but to be guarded only by civil police (no Syria regime troops allowed inside the city). All in all a total capitulation and demilitarization in exchange for not technically losing complete control of another provincial capital.
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Aug 23, 2016 13:49
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/leloveluck/status/768070632122834944 Idiotic claim for anyone who actually remembers the course of events after ghouta.
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Aug 23, 2016 14:36
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Volkerball posted:As far as I can tell, it's in a gray area where facts are unlikely to emerge. Negotiations were going on, and Iran certainly would not have been pleased about the US targeting Assad. I'd say it's more likely than not that it would've been a dealbreaker if the US had gone forward with strikes. That certainly could've played into Obama's decision making. If you're referring to the Kerry/Russia thing as though it undermined a US attempt to go to war, that was not the case. Moronic. Obama was unwilling to move alone and major allies had made it clear they would not take part. Then the US moved it to Congress where it was facing resistance. Pretending this was a unilateral Obama decision to save the Iran deal, which itself then was only the glimmer of a hope, is absolutely stupid.
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Aug 23, 2016 14:55
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I'm almost tempted to believe Obama wants a full blown clusterfuck to highlight how unprepared Trump is. I cant quite map outin my head what anyone expects to happen when the Turkish exclusion zone runs into Syrian govt controlled territory.
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Aug 24, 2016 17:14
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Can someone tell me who we expect to take Raqqa if not the SDF?
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Aug 24, 2016 20:21
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Whelp Raqqa ain't never gonna fall.
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Aug 29, 2016 20:19
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https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/771306341470048256 Images of the rebels shelling one of the two mountains directly north of Hama. The Hama offensive has been a crushing success so far. the rebels have captured 3 large towns, including both Taybat al Imam and Souran, the pair that guarded the east side of the Orantes river. On the West side they captured Halfaya, and are shelling/attacking checkpoints around Mahardeh. That could be a significant problem because Mahardeh is a Christian town and the rebels advancing here are fairly hardcore Islamist. It is a constant threat to their flank given how close it is to Halfaya but by capturing both Taybat al Imam and Souran as well as the smaller towns near by they have a very defensible position east of the Orantes that could likewise force the regime out of the more sparsely populated country side east of those two towns. The mountain i started off with is one of two, each with it's own flanking town, on the east of the Orantes directly north of Hama itself. If they fall the gate tot he city is open. Here's a map of the entire area all the way down to the rebel pocket in Homs https://twitter.com/PengamatTimteng/status/771284632432025600
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Sep 1, 2016 14:51
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For those who are hesitant to click links, this is a TOW kill on a Gazelle helicopter flying low and slow in Hama.
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Sep 2, 2016 17:23
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fknlo posted:https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/850059818165559296 Why would anyone ask Tillerson about US foreign policy?
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Apr 7, 2017 05:40
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Trump had to have help, everyone knows a true Celestial can handle an infinity stone solo.
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May 22, 2017 01:23
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Al-Saqr posted:this is the gulf going all out to stamp out the one remaining question mark in their midst, they're putting their foot down with qatar and they're going for a palace coup or qatars complete surrender to Saudi and the UAE. That's my read too. If there is military action they're looking for something more like the Prague Spring than the Iraq war. The US and UK are obviously non starters as diplomatic negotiators, do you think one of the currently uninvolved GCC states could act as an intermediary? Maybe Oman?
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Jun 5, 2017 06:20
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OhFunny posted:http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1920EG According to my math thats about 2-3 baby carrots a day per person. I mean its not nothing but y'all are really bad at understanding how much it takes to feed a country. At 2.3 million people 100 tonnes is .00004 metric tonnes (40 grams) per person.
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Jun 11, 2017 20:48
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Sinteres posted:Qatar will find food elsewhere too; this is the country with one of the highest per capita GDPs in the world, at least before this crisis. The issue is figuring out a new supply chain, not a total inability to feed their people. Rich countries don't starve. Qatars wealth is tied up in a small oligarchy with a massive underclass. It's interesting to me you think they'll be effective at distribution. From where does this mindless optimism stem?
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Jun 11, 2017 21:08
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Sinteres posted:"Mindless optimism," gently caress you. I'm not saying nobody's going to be hungry, but there's enough money to throw around that they'll figure out the distribution issues. If that small oligarchy abandoned the massive oligarchy to starvation, they'd end up overthrown and possibly dead pretty quickly. This isn't a failed state, it's a functioning country being bullied by its neighbors. Lol blind and mindless optimism. " The rich wont dare let the poor starve!"
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Jun 11, 2017 21:27
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Volkerball posted:This seems like a strange thread to not know what subsidies are. Dur subsidies what are those. How exactly can you be this thick? Lets start woth some hilarious examples. The cited poultry and dairy concerns that were talking about how much they could expand while ignoring they were processing raw materials that were imported doing nothing for the import bottleneck created by the sudden loss of a major import route. Qatar does not have the air capacity to feed itself and the inability to port deep water container ships leaves it requiring transhipment from Oman as the saudi and UAE ports are closed to Qatari business. The praised rapidity with which Turkish origin dairy and milk showed up on store shelves belies the fact the immediate need for them demonstrates a profound lack of reserve for staples. While Qatars wheat stores are undoubtedly hefty after the fear created by the 2008 shortage, man does not live by bread alone, especially in needlessly prolifigate Qatar. Right now you have a facade of normalcy propped up by showy geatures of solidarity and an open question if Qatars arramgements can meet daily consumption absent land acess and if now what more luxury importa for the citizenry will the government give up to make sure prices don't rise on food staples to the poorly paid non citizen underclass. The fact the country isn't starving after a week is not a demonstration of the long term viability of its food secuirty in current conditions. Nor should anyone blithely dismiss the inevitable disparity in effect of moderate price increases on the poor in countries with high wealth inequality. Nor the effects of black market losses and hording at the mere inkling of scarcities. Dur food subsidies.
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Jun 12, 2017 06:48
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The blatant tone policing over the response to Hersh's latest lie is hilarious. Did someone put up the white knight light on global research?
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Jul 5, 2017 23:38
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