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The comparison to the Chechen wars is probably accurate for the separatist side, since they were losing up until the recent reversal. Insurgents and rebel armies tend to suffer much higher casualties than the regular forces they're fighting, after all, and while Russia gave them a ton of support they still fell well below the standards of an actual military. That's what made Russia's recent intervention so obvious and remarkable, the swift reversal of momentum and steep Ukrainian casualties are the sort of thing they could only achieve with regular soldiers. Russia probably paid a disproportionate cost in men and material lost to keep up the charade of "local separatist movements".
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Sep 5, 2014 01:43
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That Yatsenyuk video was pretty harsh, Ukraine's situation is so utterly miserable and made all the more miserable by everyone's very polite and diplomatic tip-toeing around the truth. The Ukrainian army is suffering sizable casualties, Ukrainian civilians are being killed or conquered, the country's broke and in political turmoil and the international community doesn't even have the decency to face up to the facts of a Russian invasion. They won't even extend that tiny courtesy. Someone in his position probably has nothing to choose between except anger or despair.
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Sep 6, 2014 20:30
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Such a blatant reversal of a ceasefire probably guts any hope that this can be resolved diplomatically as things stand. Unless something changes like some heavy duty sanctions or (more likely) Russia meeting their military objectives there's really no peace to be had. People are pretty sure Kyiv isn't on the agenda, but I have to wonder - the Novorossiya borders tend to cut pretty close to the capital, and audacity isn't in short supply at the moment. Do you think Russia will absorb the conquered territory directly into Russia, like Crimea, or set up a phony republic? Seems like it could end up in a Korea-style situation with East and West Ukraine.
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Sep 6, 2014 23:27
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Five members of NATO will send weapons and advisors to Ukraine. Is this the first case of NATO sending armaments directly to Ukraine? I'm still a little surprised it's taken this long, but the West can definitely afford to fund Ukraine's half of the war if it comes to it. The fact that they're getting weapons now that they're losing rather than when they were winning reminds me of a more general foreign policy observation that it seems like these days nobody actually wants the people they're supporting to win, they just want to keep them from losing. Both Russia and the US are funding factions across North Africa, the Middle East and now Eastern Europe and yet those factions never seem to get enough to completely win - as though the Great Powers are afraid of an uncertain outcome and prefer to keep things in limbo. Edit: Disappointed if they're not sending real weapons. It's not like Russia's restraining themselves with what they're sending, what is the point of it?
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Sep 7, 2014 18:59
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There's no way the West couldn't arm Ukraine if they wanted to, by hook or by crook. As for diplomatic/political blowback, Ukraine doesn't strike me the same way as Al-Qaeda and being afraid to arm an allied nation-state because it could end the same way as arming a religious-extremist group doesn't follow. As for lying about it, it wouldn't be necessary since sending equipment to Ukraine is demonstrably no worse than what Russia's doing and nobody cares what Russia says any more (especially if they try to claim hypocrisy). Even if they did decide to play the denial game, I can only assume it'd be for smug points - I think the American public might actually like Obama waggling his eyebrows and remarking "I have no idea where the Ukrainian government is getting all their new tanks and artillery from, they must've looted them from the separatists". The big lesson from this crisis is "calling people out" and having evidence of the truth and what have you is pretty much irrelevant if they can just ignore you and keep going anyway. That might as well cut both ways.
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Sep 7, 2014 22:26
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So long as the same BuK is being used now by the Russian army, it's functionally the same thing whether Russian army operators shot the plane down or separatists did it after the Russian army gave it to them. The international community's unwillingness to pin this crime on Russia because they might have to get off their asses about it is staggeringly shameful. I'm also shocked at the audacity of Russia for not destroying the BuK or at least dumping it in an arsenal deep in Siberia. I'd assumed they'd shot and buried the drivers just to make sure they don't talk.
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Sep 8, 2014 21:13
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As much as we joke, I have to wonder if there isn't someone out there interested in knocking off effective journalists and analysts who embarrass their country abroad. Comparing the West and Russia's treatment of journalists makes for a shocking difference, so the will seems to be there. Can we honestly say that Brown Moses being murdered would provoke a reaction that blowing up a whole airliner of people didn't? It might help re-muddy the waters around several issues if critical analysis is removed.
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Sep 9, 2014 18:39
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confused posted:I think the big issue for Russia with their retaliatory actions is that they seem to be predicated on the idea that the world can't live without Russia. I think that it may cause the opposite result and drive home the fact that besides dropping nuclear bombs, Russia can't do much outside of its region except inconvenience people. Someone is going to make the point that in that scenario there's a chance that Russia will start dropping those bombs and therefore we should make sure not to hurt their feelings too much. But yes, geopolitically it would be nice to see the rest of the world show some backbone about extricating themselves from Russia's influence if this is how they're going to use it. Now if only certain European nations would get on board with that idea.
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Sep 10, 2014 08:15
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I'm going to be skeptical of this until it gets some serious confirmation elsewhere, that's just too outrageous to be easily believed. It sounds like someone just making a spin off of the ISIS beheadings that caught so many headlines. Although I suppose I can't rule out that some separatist fighter somewhere thought the same thing and actually did it, it's just hard to imagine that being policy. The fate of Ukrainian military prisoners captured by Russia and the separatists is a pretty sensitive issue, I imagine. Is there any word how many Ukrainians have been captured and in what state they're being kept? I remember seeing pictures of a humiliating parade of POWs through Donetsk recently which seemed fairly sizeable, and a number of troops were supposedly lost when Ukraine fell back from Donetsk and Luhansk.
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Sep 10, 2014 18:19
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I wouldn't be surprised if Russia pulls their troops back out of the Donbas region now that Ukraine's retreated to a further back defensive line. It's bought the separatists breathing room and proves to Ukraine that even if they could beat the separatists militarily Russia will always be there to bail them out.
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Sep 10, 2014 22:22
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Communocracy posted:So, does Poroshenko actually think that the Pro-Russian side will settle for this compromise or is it more of a last-ditch effort? At this point it's good to at least have something on the table you can point to as a compromise. If you're the separatists you don't go through the effort of racking up a death toll in the thousands just for slightly more autonomy, but it helps emphasize that the separatists' demands are quite extreme and Ukraine would be willing to listen to and work with moderates in the area if there were any.
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Sep 11, 2014 08:25
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archaeo posted:No, but I am pretty convinced that you are one of the most hilarious posters in a hilarious thread! Game recognize game. If Poroshenko's calling for a defensive line to contain the separatists within the Donetsk/Luhansk region, is that it for major offensives at the moment? It's basically conceding defeat in those areas but so long as Russia's willing to roll in whenever Ukrainian forces get too close to the border they're not really winnable anyway. I guess the greater concern is keeping the "rebellion" from spreading to places like Kharkiv and the rest of the coast.
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Sep 11, 2014 17:42
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Bit of a weird demotion for such a prominent figure. If Russia shuts off the gas to Ukraine this winter, I have to wonder if they might not throttle the gas to the rest of Europe anyway and claim Ukraine's siphoning it even if they aren't. It seems like an easy way to get the rest of Europe mad at Ukraine and it's obviously pretty hard to verify - at this point gas seems to be all the EU cares about, moreso than hundreds of citizens getting shot out of the sky. Honestly, with the dominant role gas has played in this crisis I think we all owe the United States an apology for claiming they're oil-hungry money-grubbing imperialists, as though that were somehow not the norm.
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Sep 11, 2014 21:25
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I wonder what the response would be if Estonia kidnapped a Russian border agent and claimed he was a spy too, then offered a prisoner exchange?
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Sep 11, 2014 23:39
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Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/11/despair-luhansk-residents-count-dead Russia bears responsibility for this ruin, and so long as they maintain an environment of permanent crisis in the East the chances of relief and reconstruction are small. Neighbouring Ukrainian oblasts must see images of Luhansk and dread becoming the next city Putin decides to "liberate".
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Sep 12, 2014 06:51
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It's not exactly unlikely that the Ukrainian army has been doing some shelling and that's contributed to the devastation, and responsibility for that act remains on them, but the larger desolation belongs to Russia for instigating this war purely for conquest. Luhansk being a warzone with no power or water and crumbling civil institutions goes beyond just the shelling. Also, the link in question made mention of mines and I'm pretty sure so far it's just been separatists who've used those. Ukraine's a signatory on mine-banning international agreements and Russia is not, if I'm not mistaken.
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Sep 12, 2014 07:37
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TeodorMorozov posted:Oh almighty Obama, Supreme Dark Overlord. I'm begging you, please impose your mighty sanctions on Rostelecom too. "Dark" overlord? Anything you want to tell us, Teodor? Does a Strong, Black Overlord who don't need no Vlad make you uncomfortable?
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Sep 12, 2014 16:11
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That's such an extremely petty move that I struggle to respond. Basic good-faith negotiation with Russia is hard enough at the moment, relationships are going to become all the more difficult to normalize in the future. I can only assume at this point that's the intention.
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Sep 12, 2014 18:07
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Niedar posted:Believing that increasing sanctions on Russia after they have made moves to de-escalate the conflict is maybe not the smartest thing to do is not equivalent to defending Russia. "Easing off the offensive now that he's got what he wanted" is not the same as "de-escalating the conflict". The sanctions are meant to punish the current and ongoing aggression embodied by the occupation, if the West backed off for fear of provoking another offensive and occupation (one which we don't know Russia has the will to do yet, since it'll be harder going outside of the far East) it'd be complete spinelessness. Carrot and stick is a fine negotiation tactic, but you need to use stick sometimes for it to work.
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Sep 12, 2014 21:04
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Mightypeon posted:How can people, after the massive western politician presence, the openly admitted "democracy foundation" support, the open western bragging, the leaked phone calls etc. see Maidan as something else but an unusually violent "color revolution"? Unusually violent? The response to them was unusually violent, certainly, what with the video we watched of snipers firing into the crowd, but I don't think that supports your point.
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Sep 12, 2014 21:49
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SA_Avenger posted:What does evil even mean? Do you think he brushes his hands together while laughing in his lair as he looks at dead bodies? If you have to retreat into "Is there such a thing as evil?" to avoid calling someone evil, it's not a great sign. As much as historical examples are difficult to judge within the context of their times and all that jazz, if you're a strongman dictator in the year 2014 who kills journalists, poisons defectors, jails your critics, quashes political opposition, sets up puppets in neighbouring countries, backs chemical weapon using tyrants in civil wars and launches opportunistic conquests then you are a bad man. Putin probably doesn't think of himself as evil, very few evil people do. As much as the lines can get blurry, though, he is well over it. We can argue about how, say, the President of the United States is a role whose occupiers get their hands dirty immediately, but even they must tip-toe when compared to the willful destruction Putin's been able to throw around.
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Sep 13, 2014 16:49
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I now crave war in Eastern Europe just so this thread has something to talk about that isn't an endless an unbearable newsless circlejerk. Can anyone at least say if there's any new about the "ceasefire", what with heavy fighting between Ukraine and separatists at the airport? Have officials from any side reacted publicly yet? What about Mariupol, is it still in Ukrainian hands or did separatists take it?
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Sep 14, 2014 01:45
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karthun posted:I find it amazing that people still argue that Ukraine is trying to enter the US's orbit because of Amerimaiden and the Ukraine-US Association Agreement. No wait it was called Euromaiden and the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. Well you see obviously everything is controlled by the US... Actually it is lizard people that control the US government. Or was it the Jews. I can't keep the conspiracy theories straight. While Europe and America have shown some pretty glaring differences of opinion in this particular crisis, entering the European community (and especially advancing toward NATO membership) does more or less put a country into America's sphere. When people talk about "The Western World", it's usually America & Friends. The depressing thing to me is that the aspect of the West that appears to have most inspired the Euromaidan is the rule of law, reduced corruption, transparent elections and just generally a fair and functioning civil society - a glaring difference between the Russian world of oligarchy and dictatorship. The discussion focuses so much on spheres of influence and military force projection and so little on why a people would be drawn to one way of life over the other, such as the promise of self-determination. Europe's indifference to a nation drawn by their best traits is weirdly galling. I almost wish it really had been "Amerimaidan" and Ukrainians had specifically yearned for the American way of life, since for their faults America has a lot of pride tied up in being seen as an inspiration and attacking people for that would be seen as an attack on American pride. Right now America's support for Ukraine is limited by how far Europe is willing to respond to an attack by proxy on their values, and it turns out that's not very far. Unless that value is money, of course, which makes the sanctions almost as offensive as the Russian incursion. Dolash fucked around with this message at 06:25 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 06:23
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OddObserver posted:There have been plenty of news, too: today most (all?) Ukrainian political parties released their parliamentary election lists. That's an interesting strategy with the fighter pilot. It'll probably net the party a few votes, but if she gets elected what's the effect? Is there diplomatic precedent for foreign prisoners becoming politicians in their home countries?
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Sep 15, 2014 03:16
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TeodorMorozov posted:Twitters Ministry of Defence just need a justification for returning to Ukraine status of nuke country. Did they scrape you directly from the comments section of an RT article, or something? Anyway, they obviously didn't give the separatists nuclear weapons since we've seen from the MH17 debacle that they can't be trusted with heavy weaponry with serious potential blowback - that's why the Russian army's started doing the heavy lifting. I could see why Putin might want to, though, since they're the ultimate backstop. If Donetsk/Luhansk were nuclear-capable and threatened the non-nuclear, non-NATO Ukraine with retaliatory strikes if they attempt another "invasion", that'd be the end of the war right there. Could you imagine the shitstorm if Russian forces set up some kind of nuclear weapon within separatist territory and then Russia hand-waved it by saying "Oh, I guess those treacherous Ukrainians didn't give up all their nuclear weapons after all, because the separatists just found one in a liberated Ukrainian arsenal!"? I couldn't imagine Putin giving a nuke to the idiot locals, but I could almost imagine something that brazen with the regular army.
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Sep 15, 2014 16:15
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"since Kiev launched operations to silence pro-Russians" Why won't anyone think of the innocent voices of the pro-Russians the Ukrainian army is trying to silence? They just wanted to murder politicians and students in peace... But more seriously, I think these compromise deals don't have much of a chance since the separatists didn't start a bloodbath just to get increased local autonomy. Making offers like this at least makes the point that the Ukrainian government is open to reform and engaging with moderates and would - if the separatists were not pure astroturf - probably undermine support for the separatists' ongoing violence. At most I can imagine Putin might prefer a deal that keeps the south east in Ukraine to act as a pro-Russian spoiler, maybe with a veto it can use to help anchor Ukraine as a whole to Russia. Removing those parts of the country entirely just makes the remainder of Ukraine more politically unified and virulently anti-Russian, so maybe he'll look to get the separatists to accept a deal that's to his liking.
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Sep 16, 2014 03:59
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There were also those French politicians who visited Russia recently in solidarity. This whole crisis has been a great chance for Europe's ideological sludge to float to the top.
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Sep 17, 2014 04:15
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If any of the soldiers defending it survive, I imagine they'd have some interesting stories to tell. Edit: or defended it/survived, since I don't know if Ukraine's still holding on to it.
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Sep 17, 2014 22:59
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He probably meant that Canada is the most Ukrainian country outside of Ukraine, due to the large Ukrainian minority. Although if you want to look at it historically, Ukraine and Canada do have some similarities. Having a larger, more powerful cultural cousin whose political orbit they find hard to escape, for example.
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Sep 17, 2014 23:15
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TeodorMorozov posted:You are sick man. And you're returning to the topic of an old Russian rocker none of us have heard about to gloat about his shows not being popular for vaguely nationalist reasons.
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Sep 18, 2014 08:40
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Majorian posted:In the meantime, the White House is (wisely, IMO) saying that it won't send weapons to Ukraine. What a disappointment. It's not like Russia is going to reciprocate, there's no award for being the more restrained side.
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Sep 19, 2014 22:02
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Majorian posted:Didn't you know? Them boys're the Knyazes of Hazzardskaya Oblast. The idea that a hundred years from now, Ukrainians around Donetsk would drive around with "The East Will Rise Again!" bumper stickers makes me chuckle. Although to be honest, the more likely outcome will be Western Russians with "Ukraine Will Rise Again!" bumper stickers. Or Poland. poo poo, or Germany the way things have been going.
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Sep 20, 2014 07:26
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Brown Moses posted:A couple of weeks ago we identified what appeared to be the same Buk linked to the downing of MH17 inside Russia a few weeks before July 17th. We're now looking for every image we can find of Ukrainian and Russian Buks so we can check if there's any other Buks with markings that are anywhere near to being the same as the ones on the MH17 Buk to establish the likelihood it's sheer coincidence the markings on the two Buks we've spotted match so well. There's more details here for anyone who wants to get involved. While I admire your efforts, I can't help but imagine how demoralizing it is to know how little impact the truth has on the conflict or what people say about it. People believe what they want to believe, and catching a great power in a lie is meaningless since there isn't actually any way to punish them for just continuing to repeat the lie. Even their own people who are invested in the lie being true are happy to willfully ignore the truth when convenient. This doesn't just apply to the Buk, but the whole of your work and probably to quite a lot of journalism as a whole. The truth is all but powerless. The one thing I can think of that it achieved in this thread is people advancing a more pro-Russian view in this thread eased off suggesting it could've been the Ukrainian government and switched to downplaying what it meant since other airliners had been shot down before.
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Sep 20, 2014 17:44
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waitwhatno posted:Oh for fucks sake, can you be any more dramatic? The Ukrainian government is not the second coming, they are a bunch of corrupt shitheel criminals robbing the country and its people blind. Nobody ever expected the world to defend Ukraine from a Russian attack, I'm sure that included most Ukrainians. The only surprise here is how lackluster European economic sanctions have been overall. I don't think the Ukraine he was referring to was Poroshenko and his bank account, I think he was referring to the vast Maidan protests which agitated for a less corrupt and more free government based along European lines, managed to dethrone their Russian puppet leader, and were mulched for their troubles by Russia while Europe looked the other way embarrassed. But you know, maybe they were just being dramatic and shouldn't be so surprised. One of the real lessons of this crisis and possibly quite a few crises of the last few years is watch out who you're inspired by. European and American freedom sounds nice on paper, all that stuff about Democracy, rights and transparency, and if you ask them they'll happily tell you how they're inspirational beacons of freedom for all the world. Try and follow their example though and watch them throw their hands up and start shouting about spheres of influence or the limits of treaty obligations.
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Sep 23, 2014 05:14
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OddObserver posted:Some poll company did a survey of view of Ukrainians on foreign leaders. There was a bit of a surprise. The numbers are favorable/unfavorable: Lukashenko's done a good job riding the fence, while Obama and Merkel are probably frustrating people by how little they've done to resolve the crisis. 16% for Putin has to be his floor, though, I can't imagine he could do more to piss off Ukrainians short of dropping the bomb on Kyiv.
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Sep 24, 2014 19:56
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Now there's an heir who'll be poisoned within a year of the death of his dad, probably after starting a regional war over a tantrum.
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Sep 25, 2014 08:06
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Does Ukraine maintain even nominal control of the border with Russia? At this point convoys seem to be moving back and forth uninhibited, all that leaving Ukrainian forces there does is make them vulnerable to pocketing and being killed/captured - as soon as Russia decides it wants to erase the border it'll flatten them with artillery.
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Sep 26, 2014 03:47
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An honest accounting of casualties is going to be all but impossible since the premiere power operating in the area is extremely committed to obfuscating the truth. We may never know. There was talk by Ukraine about building a defensive line to contain the the separatists, while the ceasefire has been pretty shaky is there any word on that? I assume the big fear in this relative lull is once the separatists finish rearming and reorganizing (with help from this latest "humanitarian convoy") they'll push to take Mariupol and try to roll up the whole Ukrainian coast down to Odessa. I don't know if realistically the Ukrainian army can stop such an offensive unless the West starts arming them with something stronger than rusting soviet gear, but presumably they can at least mass some artillery and troops and hope for the best.
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Sep 26, 2014 17:35
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I suppose if it'll take the Russian army committing openly to roll up the Ukrainian coast then we'll know it when it happens. Ceding Donetsk and Luhansk to separatists is wretched but if they can't break out of that containment without regular military backing that'll limit Russia somewhat. If they were totally okay with just conquering half of Ukraine with the Russian army they'd have done it already, we'll have to wait to find out if land-locking Ukraine and connecting Crimea overland is worth that escalation or not. Again it does seem interesting to note that a Ukraine that's had its most pro-Russian areas conquered by Russia is guaranteed to be more politically unified and anti-Russian. It might not amount to much if there's complete economic and political chaos in the Ukrainian remnant, but if things ever stabilize down the line (way, way down the line) they'll be a natural ally in the region for Europe and the West. Certainly it's hard to imagine a government elected by a Ukrainian population who's lived through this crisis ever campaigning on a pro-Russian platform again. Dolash fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Sep 26, 2014 |
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Sep 26, 2014 21:04
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Ardennes posted:There is already a split between Ukrainian moderates and more radical nationalists at this point. If anything despite being less ethnically Russian, Ukraine is probably even less unified politically that it was in March. But is that a long-term solution? Russia might be able to keep that up for the next few years, but thinking decades or even a generation or two down the line this approach requires Russia to keep permanently under its thumb, and any stumble or loss of power on Russia's part is an opportunity for Ukraine to get out from under. They're breeding resentment that will permeate Ukraine for years to come. Russia doesn't have the USSR's same ability to maintain stalemates and divisions, and even the USSR eventually collapsed from the weight of the empire they were trying to prop up. Putin might score points by pretending they can, but he probably won't be around when the long-term consequences come home to roost. Edit - this is kind of wandering into Clancychat, I guess. To try and keep this relevant to Ukraine's specific situation it's interesting to think about what new border will stabilize between Ukraine and Russia and how long it will take for Ukraine to normalize again.
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Sep 26, 2014 21:37
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