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Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

President Moon not wanting to alienate the US makes sense given improved relations with the North isn't guaranteed to last beyond a month or so.

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Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

The benefit of having someone as stunningly stupid as Trump here is that whereas Clinton would probably have been cautious and suspicious about NK's claims, potentially undermining it, Trump is just smiling absently and thinking about how bigly he succeeded in solving Korean politics forever.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

I propose a DMZ in the Korean peninsula thread.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

While such political ambitions are indeed true, you have to consider the logistical issue - the European refugee crisis has seen roughly 5 million displaced people apply for asylum on European soil. This has managed to throw Europe into a political clusterfuck that is severely straining the union due to the non-border states not bothering to help the border states actually finance and otherwise care for said people.

Now take North Korea, which has an actual land border with China rather than the deadly seas between Africa/Syria and Europe. Assuming some massive NK collapse such evacuation of a nation of an estimated 25million people would be significant - obviously those farther from the Chinese border would either stay and suffer or attempt to flee south. But remember a failed state of 25 million people is not something you can just throw some aid packages at and 'solve' a crisis.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

R. Guyovich posted:

no one is under any illusions here.

Well, Trump is, but whether that's due to his media bubble or the activity of the brain spiders is for history (and probably a medical professional) to decide.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009


Look, they had to do that otherwise communism might have killed them.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:

I have no idea what you're talking about, because I checked too just now, and Wikipedia claims that the North Koreans were the aggressors. As in, they decided to push past the 38th parallel with military forces in an operation that was planned months in advance with the support of both the USSR and China. Was this an Iraq-like preemptive strike? I'd enjoy reading your sources.

I mean, I read the same article and it says that NK claimed it was in response to southern aggression. Obviously North Korea would be unlikely to claim they fought a war of aggression, but given the history of the US's evil poo poo during the Cold War, I feel it's rather naïve to assume that the western canon in terms of who fired first is necessarily true.

It's certainly a better argument to say that North Korea had been planning this stuff in advance, but what's our source on that? Internal documents?

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:

Troops are not pieces on a chessboard, as much as generals want them to be. A campaign consisting of support units, infantry, armored units, and an airforce can literally not be supplied on a whim. In WWII troops, tanks, and aircraft ran out of supplies often on both sides. Logistics demands preparation. The mere fact that they engaged in a successful campaign (until the US arrived) is very, very strong evidence that the offensive was planned.

The alternative -- leaving aside altogether Kim's meetings with Stalin and Mao -- is that the South Koreans arbitrarily decided to send a unit to capture a position north of the 38th parallel, without any support units or plans, and that North Korea happened to have everything it needed for a campaign, like fuel trucks, ammunition, foodstuffs, etc., all at hand, so they were immediately ready to move on the south. Note that this is far separate from merely having the logistics to man the border, which requires a lot less of everything.

Even if you can't decide between the two based on your reading, try to assign a probability to each of them. Which is more plausible? (I know the tankie answer already.)

I mean, I'm not disputing that NK were preparing for an invasion south, but given KIS was meeting with Stalin and Mao this could easily play in to a standard paranoia of the time - Stalin was invaded by his supposed ally less than a decade prior, and the US was likewise an ally who then turned on him. Given KIS was a Soviet-educated Korean it isn't beyond the boundaries of doubt that he was preparing based on a paranoia of SK invasion that put him on a hair trigger.

Is this justifying the invasion of SK by NK? Absolutely not. My view is that given the history of conflicts world-wide I can absolutely see that the potential of the south overreaching a border skirmish and causing a war is absolutely plausible. Humans are really kinda bad at not causing wars.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Koramei posted:

Yeah, Syngman Rhee's regime had been quite intentionally deprived of military equipment by the Americans expressly because they were worried about him starting an invasion. There were skirmishes back and forth in the leadup to it, but the only side that could have started any serious invasion was the North.

And to be fair Rhee probably would have invaded, had he not been deprived of that stuff--he very much wanted to keep the war going until reunification at just about any cost, and kept arguing as such right to the bitter end.

This is why I've always wavered on who the original side that "struck first" was given the border skirmishes. It's 100% plausible to me that NK one day decided "gently caress it" but it's also just as plausible to me that an SK-led skirmish was counted as the final straw.

I mean, for what's worth, I don't think any amount of war crimes by the SK-USA forces justified the brutality of the Kim dynasty's regime. I feel I should make that explicit.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Some Guy TT posted:

Apparently food distribution in North Korea has so vastly improved over the last few years that the difference easily offsets year-to-year harvest fluctuations. Which is good, if your concern is the welfare of the North Korean people. Not so good if you're looking for an excuse to destabilize the country.

I am curious about how the heatwave has affected crops, given over here in the west we've seen early yields or dying crops. Obviously a journalist wouldn't up front go "yeah we're loving dying over here, buddy" so I wonder if they'll be fine down the line.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Some Guy TT posted:

One thing that surprised me about the article was how positive the tone was. Usually The Daily NK is a lot more grim than that. They seem to have tempered their message lately. For a sense of perspective, these articles are far more typical of The Daily NK's line.

Excessive heat wave wreaking havoc on residents and crops

Ah, that's the kind of thing I was wondering about. Corn crops are drying out, which I have a feeling are going to cause knock-on effects in the winter months.

Part of the cruel irony of climate change that even the smaller polluters have to eat poo poo.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Some Guy TT posted:

How exactly could North Korea launch missiles in a less provocative way?

Set up a giant slide-whistle to go off as the missile leaves the launcher.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Flayer posted:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49408555

An interesting and very sad article that stands out for being a mainstream news piece that is vaguely positive about North Korea (while throwing in some unexplained guff about a mysterious prison in NK).

The case of the NK emigrant dying of starvation in SK really highlights the breathtaking cynicism of capitalism. We're gungho about placing massive sanctions on countries we know are facing huge issues with food production and supply while letting our own poor die of starvation. Who are supposed to be the good guys again?

Yep, it's the peak of hypocrisy that only really came about with the collapse of the Soviet Union - once you no longer had to win a PR war against communism, capitalism could go back to gleefully letting the poor die without even the mildest sop of a benefits safety net.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Charliegrs posted:

North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles completely unhindered but yeah let's fight over some useless islands.

Not to say that I agree they're working but would you consider the economic sanctions against North Korea completely unhindered? Isn't part of their delay that they can't openly obtain Chinese/Russian computer equipment that would vastly accelerate this process? I'm aware they receive such things anyway, but to my knowledge the power of sanctions slowed such acquisition down to a trickle in order to mostly-avoid international monitors.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Some Guy TT posted:

Well I guess except the oranges.

There's only one of those in the white house. Dohohoho.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009


Some Guy TT posted:

I wish I could say I'm disappointed that my post linking an article that describes an actual honest to God international prostitution ring whose existence is very well documented was ignored in favor of a K-pop conspiracy theory. But let's face it. My expectations aren't that high.

In my defence I don't read the Korean thread daily! This article is galling. When I first saw the tweets I was curious about something the article then clarifies:

quote:

Like Choi, many of the Koreans who seek justice for camp-town sex workers refer to them as “comfort women”—an especially charged designation.

Because this is exactly what it felt like to me. Jesus.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Some Guy TT posted:

the main go-to example being the ones used in the Vietnam War.

Maybe Roy Moore's quixotic campaign in 2017 has skewed my memory but wasn't that a time when child prostitution was considered perfectly normal for troops to engage with?

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Every time they do one of these tests it means the MilInt crew in SK have to come in even on days off - there's one such goon who has had July 4 and Thanksgiving ruined by these tests, and is 100% expecting Christmas to be cancelled next. He says it's absolutely NK doing it to piss off the US forces deployed, to 'punish' them for being on the peninsula.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

I assume that the military presence in Seoul is diminishing, and so you can't really point to that as strong defences.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

It's CNN, I'm assuming some dipshit just tested that Wolf Blitzer says "wow" to revelations no matter how shocking or sudden and someone overheard him and reported it as truth.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Was hoping the article itself would detail whether it was a 'minor' loss vs a 'major' loss, but I agree such a question would probably not be taken kindly by the respondent.

Found this interesting though:

quote:

The survey showed that 5.5 percent lost their jobs due to the pandemic. Some 12.3 percent said they went through salary cuts or returned part of their income.

5.5% is really massive, but because of the US numbers being even more massive my shock is tiny.

Hopefully the government will do something to address this, particularly given the subsequent paragraphs:

quote:

Meanwhile, the survey showed that bleak circumstances took a toll on mental health.

Some 25.9 percent of respondents said they felt very anxious, while 12.6 percent said they were depressed. In both categories, temporary and low-income employees were more likely to report such symptoms.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009


Look, unless he personally visits me and lets me rub and pinch him then this is all just propaganda.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Look it's worked great so far. Another river coated in wet paper and that regime's toppling any day, folks.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Some Guy TT posted:

In other news that can't be searched in English for very different reasons, Kim Jong Un still isn't dead. And the South Korean reactionaries who fed obviously bullshit information to the international English press regarding this incident are facing domestic scrutiny for this. The international English language press is, unsurprisingly, doing their best to hope people forget their extremely blatant role in spreading fake news.

What kind of domestic scrutiny? It would warm my heart to see them get relegated to the cuckoo corner.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Isn't this just a response to the joint exercises recently conducted after Biden successfully renegotiated the SK military financial impasse that Trump caused? I recall seeing NK putting out their standard angry response to the joint exercises that made me hear about the latest bomb in the sea and go "ah, there's the retaliation."

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

So it seems a newly in-office right-wing moron has managed to single-handedly tank the entire bond market of Korea? https://twitter.com/osamabishounen/status/1592218400197312512

I've been reading through this story and it's amazing, it's like what Liz Truss did to us here in Britain but somehow faster and worse.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Given his general shittiness was there any one thing in particular that saw this defeat or was it just his overall demeanor?

And going forward will he really be able to do much? I admit I'm pretty bad with the day to day business of how the Korean parliament functions.

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Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Given he was proclaimed the King of the Incels before becoming president I'm glad he's been unable to do much. I heard that his only good quality was thawing relations with Japan, but at the expense of downplaying Japan's 20th century atrocities, which rather outweighs the economic good in my opinion.

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