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Joementum posted:The current count of mail-in ballots in Alaska is 28,260, with 14,239 requested ballots outstanding, which represents about 1% of the expected election turnout. Keep in mind that these ballots are not counted until a week after the election, so if the vote margin is less than that number with all precincts reported tomorrow (or Wednesday in most parts of the US by that time), it ain't over. Technically it wouldn't be over, but any margin greater than ~0.66% couldn't be flipped without a more-than-2-to-1 margin on mail-in ballots in favor of the candidate that's down tomorrow night. If the margin is greater than 0.66% it would be a challenge to eke out a win despite losing on election night.
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Nov 4, 2014 04:14
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Slate Action posted:I don't think Walker is even considered to be seriously in danger of losing, is he? His lead isn't huge but from what I've read it looks relatively safe. Even if it was close I'm sure someone would "accidentally" find just enough missing votes in Waukesha to keep it out of being a recount.
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Nov 4, 2014 17:04
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Chris Christie posted:WOAH. What's up D&D Goons. Not enough Democrats yelling about how they're coming to take away your guns. Huh. Isn't that funny.
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Nov 4, 2014 18:46
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Reminder that we are currently at 2/6 Republican flips needed for them to take the Senate.
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Nov 5, 2014 02:45
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CommieGIR posted:So now will the Senate committee on science match the morons on the Congressional one? We are currently at 2/6 Republican upsets so it is not yet clear. Wait for NC and IA before we make that call. Because  if you think MT and SD won't make it 4/6.
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Nov 5, 2014 02:52
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420DD Butts posted:Yeah, if somehow the Dems hold both IA/NC I'll feel better about a possibility of Dems holding the Senate overall or via VP. They will almost certainly not hold IA unless Braley has an amazing ground game operation we haven't heard about. Iowa really likes its hog castrators. They might hold NC, but then that leaves AK and LA, and that last is likely to wait until December to give the inevitable Republican win. If Republicans take NC tonight and Dems can't do a surprise upset in SD, we will at least be waiting until AK counts its mail in ballots, and quite possibly for LA's runoff.
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Nov 5, 2014 02:58
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How are u posted:I will poo poo a loving brick if Florida re-elects Rick loving Scott. Florida I cannot wait until you sink into the sea, you piece of poo poo gently caress state. I just learned today that my parents will be moving to Florida so that's one more guaranteed Republican vote in 2016... 
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Nov 5, 2014 03:02
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oshuaj posted:He's done. I forgot about CO when projecting the 6 Republican takeovers. With MT as an R flip, Ds would have to hold all of NC, IA, LA, and AK to hold the Senate. This might actually be over by midnight PST. EDIT: Barring a surprise Orman/Nunn upset. ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 03:33 on Nov 5, 2014 |
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Nov 5, 2014 03:31
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spoon0042 posted:it's probably too much to hope for a federal minimum wage increase, isn't it? just more shutting down the government over obamacare? Haha you think that Mitch is going to let the lame duck Senate get legislation through as a courtesy.
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Nov 5, 2014 03:35
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Mahuum Aqoha posted:Did anybody NOT see this coming? I thought we've all accepted since 2010 that this year would be bad because it contained a bunch of Senate seats taken by Democrats in red states in 2008. Not going to bust out the suicide emotes about this yet. You can bust the suicide emotes if they sweep AK, NC and VA because that means we're getting a 55-45 Senate which will be difficult to overcome even in 2016.
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Nov 5, 2014 03:39
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It's worth noting that a sweep of AK, NC and VA would imply a Republican landslide shift of +10. Good luck coming up with a +6 swing the other way.
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Nov 5, 2014 03:44
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Welp. Time to watch the final ep of Alpha House so I can feel good about some Republicans winning in 2014.
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Nov 5, 2014 03:51
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HorseRenoir posted:Hey look on the bright side, we'll probably get the Senate back in two years. Have fun getting a +4 swing (+5 under a Cruz ascendant scenario)
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Nov 5, 2014 03:52
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Mitt Romney posted:NYTimes has Hagan down to only +1 predicted with only 56% reporting. Looks like that one could flip too. +9 swing. +9 here we come.
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Nov 5, 2014 04:13
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Mitt Romney posted:NYTimes now predicting Hagan losing in NC That would be #6 (CO, WV, NC, SD, MT, AR). Open the blood gates! 
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Nov 5, 2014 04:25
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:oh thank loving god Why is that a bright spot when he was supposed to be up by 10
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Nov 5, 2014 04:27
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fknlo posted:I'm excited to see what the Republican Senate is able to get through with a slight majority after all of the bills the Democrats were able to get through with a slight majority. It'll get better with McConnell pushing for filibuster reform
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Nov 5, 2014 04:31
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Brannock posted:Republicans at +5 for the Senate. Like, really. People saw the Republican performance of the past two years and thought it was satisfactory and worthy of their vote. +6 if you include both NC and CO (you should). With LA, AK and IA, it should be +9. +10 if Orman can't manage. The country has spoken, and they want Republicans to impeach Obama now.
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Nov 5, 2014 04:46
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TotalHell posted:So basically this whole night is even worse than many of us imagined it would be? It's pretty much worst case scenario, but not much worse than that. The only surprise is how close Warner's race is.
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Nov 5, 2014 04:49
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Alexzandvar posted:At least we KNOW a democrat will win in 2018, whats the worst that could happen in 4 years Scott screws around with elections even more letting Jeb win in 2016 and his Republican successor win in 2018?
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Nov 5, 2014 04:51
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tatankatonk posted:But how far right is the Democratic Party going to tack in response to this terrible electoral defeat? Well, Clinton is still favored to be the 2016 nominee...
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Nov 5, 2014 04:52
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Kiwi Ghost Chips posted:Everyone with a pet theory about this election needs to look at this chart: Yes, the Senate is inherently gerrymandered to favor Republicans. This is just a reversion to the 55-45 R majority mean.
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Nov 5, 2014 04:53
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It's structural
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axeil posted:So if the House and Senate are both gerrymandered to favor the GOP what is structurally set up to favor the Dems? Nothing. Have fun!
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Nov 5, 2014 04:56
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Mitt Romney posted:The Senate is not gerrymandered. It's impossible to gerrymander. A deliberate misuse of nomenclature on my part to imply that there are far more low-population Republican rural states than high-population Democratic urban states, and as such, Republicans have an inherent advantage.
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Nov 5, 2014 04:58
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NEED TOILET PAPER posted:btw i was busy having dinner and then taking a crap so i missed a fair bit of the thread. how did this midterm election come out worse than DnD's expectations? especially wrt specific races. The only race that is worse than expectations is that Warner is winning in VA by the skin of his teeth rather than by the 10 points that were projected. Pretty much every other race where where a flip was possible flipped, but that was expected. Also, apparently MD gubernatorial race is closer than expected. MA gubernatorial and IL gubernatorial are favoring Republicans, but those were tossups with a slight Republican preference anyway, so not MUCH worse than expected.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:00
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queertea posted:Is this just how Wisconsin is now? I always thought we had as much progressive cred as our neighbor Little Scandinavia to the west, but we've been royally loving it up pretty consistently now. You are talking about the state that brought us McCarthyism.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:03
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Mitt Romney posted:You might regret that if the GOP ends up with all 3 branches with 2016. I give that better than even odds if they manage to field Bush. Even odds if they field Christie.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:04
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CrumFUNist! posted:Colorado's personhood amendment has been defeated soundly. Don't worry. Pro-lifers can still potentially count on the amendments in ND(?) and TN to get them the SCOTUS case they so desperately want.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:07
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Harminoff posted:So what's Obama to do for the next 2 years? Call signing into law every Republican bill his "Grand Compromise".
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Nov 5, 2014 05:08
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Alexzandvar posted:lol if you think the republicans will nominate a man who has not only touched, but hugged Obama. And by now the American public is allergic to to seeing the word Bush on a presidential ballot. Republicans have never failed to field the most electable candidate even though he is typically disliked by the base. The base never fails to turn out and vote for the man they didn't want either.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:09
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Alexzandvar posted:Were you in a coma in 2012? Who was more electable than Romney? Of the candidates who actually ran, I mean?
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Nov 5, 2014 05:11
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queertea posted:A-- are we turning into Michigan? No, because Michigan elected a second Democratic senator tonight and you have Ron Johnson.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:13
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Jealous Cow posted:This is how Roe v. Wade is overturned 5/4. Possibly. But personhood lost in both ND and CO, and that's the most promising attack.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:17
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Timby posted:I imagine Cruz has articles of impeachment already drafted and uses them as his spank bank on a nightly basis. He'll need to get the Tea Party Caucus to introduce it though. (Senate doesn't file articles of impeachment)
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Nov 5, 2014 05:18
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Alexzandvar posted:The only good thing to come out of tonight is Obama is going to be impeached and the most powerful man in the free world is going to be Joe Biden. As well as they performed, the Republicans still did not manage to get 67 seats in the Senate, I'm afraid...
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Nov 5, 2014 05:19
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The Glumslinger posted:They'll get 15 dems who want to appeal to middle for their next elections They'd need 16, and there's no way Reid and Durbin would let that happen.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:21
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Cheesemaster200 posted:And a change in the Senate rules. Fortunately, Reid paved the way for that last January.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:22
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Just change them back before January? That will go over well. It's not the rules themselves that matter. It's the precedent. That and the fact that undoing the rules changes would actually be harder than putting them into place as putting them into place was possible with a simple majority only because it was the start of a new Congress. You'd need 60 to undo them, and good luck with that.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:27
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The Glumslinger posted:I'm just gonna hide in California as it keeps getting more liberal On the other hand, prop 45 is going down 39-61, so it's not THAT great.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:31
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Zoran posted:My district in San Diego looks like it will lose its Dem incumbent (Peters) to a tea partier (DeMaio). And there's reason to believe we'll lose our Democratic supermajority in the assembly too, so there goes any semblance of progressive state legislation.
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Nov 5, 2014 05:34
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