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I don't really understand why you'd make longterm bets with small margins of error. theres a 5% withdrawal fee and you won't see the money for so long you've essentially lost money. bet on sure things that close soon, like "donald trump will be >20 in the polls on aug 31" was selling for 50/50 for a while
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Aug 21, 2015 19:01
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It would be cool if, due to a statistical tie, they let everyone into the big kids debate except Graham, and still hold a kids table debate just for him.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:24
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They would probably feel pity and let Graham come onto the big stage, but just never speak to him or acknowledge his presence
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Sep 4, 2015 02:27
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Vox Nihili posted:Any reason not to buy Yes on Christie making the next debate? Going at 90c, and it seems virtually impossible that 8 polls with Christie at 0% will drop within a week. CNN would have to specifically exclude Christie, which it already said at the Fiorina announcement that it would not. Link to the Fiorina announcement?
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Sep 5, 2015 00:33
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Stereotype posted:Why did they add a market about Al Gore becoming a candidate? Is that something anyone has talked about ever? Someone asked al if he was running and hew as like "Lol, no."
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Sep 5, 2015 01:19
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Debating about whether or not to go in on "obama will not veto congressional disapproval of iran". Seems like the likely no-voters are already out, but there are a couple people who say they offer their support to overturn a veto, but will not filibuster it.
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Sep 5, 2015 22:06
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Vox Nihili posted:I've got a bunch of No shares on this one, not sure if I should sell or hold at this point. Looks like the price will keep going up, but I don't want to be caught unaware if Biden actually pulls the trigger, which is still possible. I think if he's going to announce it'll be on Colbert's show, and I don't think he will; no is going to go way up if he doesn't announce on the show
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Sep 5, 2015 23:24
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Vox Nihili posted:I think the odds of a Colbert announcement are close to zero. Biden said he would make his decision around the end of the month, I think. i think probably good to hold on til after that then. people are super reactionary and it'll drive the price up.
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Sep 5, 2015 23:40
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i see you commenting... vox nihi1i
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Sep 11, 2015 22:04
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I bought 100 shares that Rubio was going to win the debate for some reason. Luckily they were like 12 cents. I'm hoping there's a bump when the next poll comes out so I can unload them.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:45
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Aliquid posted:JEB! is still trading way higher than what should be the case. How do you get that from the rules here? I can only read that as that it closes on the 23rd.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:51
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Aliquid posted:Ah, you're playing that market until its dying hours. That's what I meant anyway; it'll only take a few days until the post-debate polls come out and it'll close. I guess you'll see some weird swings between now and then. Yeah, that's what I'm hoping for. People betting erratically after the first poll comes in so I can offload those. Of course if Rubio doesn't do well at all I lose all of it but eh, whatever, ten bucks. For some reason people Carson is way overvalued for winning the debate, despite being one of the frontrunners. It seems like debates have a bit of an averaging effect in the first week or so afterwards.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:56
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Vox Nihili posted:Carly is about to kill me again. First I lost out in a huge fashion when CNN decided to change the rules to put her into the debate. Now my "anyone but Carly" bet that seemed pretty safe at the start is worth half of what I got it for. Gonna hold until we see a poll though. Carson is still on the upswing. I think there's no way he gets that big of an upswing from this debate, as compared to 3-point Carly.
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Sep 18, 2015 19:04
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It's only 80 cents to buy that Walker will not be the next to drop out (Yes is selling for 38). If that price goes down some more it'd be a steal, no way Kochs give up on him so early.
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Sep 20, 2015 19:26
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loving walker
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Sep 21, 2015 21:17
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I'm not feeling very sturdy anymore, the big things I have left are biden not running and the government not shutting down...
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Sep 21, 2015 21:20
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Didn't they screw people by not closing the "first repub to drop" until way after Jindal suspended his campaign for a bit?
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Sep 22, 2015 04:45
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A Time To Chill posted:I don't at all dispute that the filing is super fake. But aren't the people running the site ridiculously spergy rules lawyers? Yeah, which supports the claim that they wouldn't use a fake filing. It doesn't say "a filing under the name of..." or anything like that.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:07
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Yeah but it's not clear which of the approved outlets they use in the average and from what time period. See here: clearly the old CNN poll went away because there's a new one, but why isn't PPP in? It's within the past month.
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Sep 22, 2015 07:00
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Aliquid posted:it seems PI is slightly falling for this technicality bullshit It seems to basically be one guy trying to get other people to believe him. I wonder if he's just playing them.
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Sep 22, 2015 08:54
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If they ever get rid of the poll from two months ago, that is.
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Sep 22, 2015 18:13
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pathetic little tramp posted:I wish there were a way to set upper and lower limits. Like, I want to sell these shares at 79 cents, but if there's a frenzy going on, I don't want to drop below 70 so I'll let go of them at that too, but I guess with the way the site operates that's not really possible. I've been thinking of this lately too, on account of that piece of poo poo Scott Walker.
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Sep 22, 2015 21:53
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I got nervous about biden and the shutdown and pulled out. At least "Donald trump will be at 25" is a safe 20% profit.
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Sep 23, 2015 15:51
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Aliquid posted:I just realized I have no loving idea if Biden is going to run or not and why am i betting on this Yeah, that was my realization too, I'm really completely unsure if all this 'I'm not sure if I'll be ready' is show or not.
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Sep 23, 2015 18:06
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haha after this morning's bernie at 24 polls I got out of that market, because i didn't expect another poll to come out soon with him >25. whoops
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Sep 24, 2015 00:28
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Gyges posted:Trump and Bush for the month seem pretty safe money and I've made a decent amount off them Oh my loving god. e: RCP removed a bunch of the republican nomination polls so that for, like, the first time ever on that site, it's based on a 5-day polling average, pushing Donald's rating down to 24. fronz has issued a correction as of 13:49 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 13:46
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I've been getting trolled pretty hard lately.
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Sep 24, 2015 15:48
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Necc0 posted:Man I promised myself I wouldn't touch the poll markets after getting burned when I first started with this site back in April but I had to touch the stove again, didn't I? His polling was unsinkable!
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Sep 24, 2015 16:07
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Necc0 posted:I still have no idea if the YES Biden crew are nuts or if they're trying to game the market. I've never seen straw-grabbing to that extreme in any of the other markets. If they were trying to game the market they should have sold their shares.
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Oct 5, 2015 18:02
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hell yeah I'm back in the blackDo Not Resuscitate posted:gently caress me. Welp, here I am. I'm showing up for my well-deserved beating. Bring it on, boys. Didn't you drop your shares after the debate? I thought you switched sides and a newcomer came to take your place.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:24
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I thought that his running would be pointless after Sunday, but I held onto my shares because I still thought he'd run anyways. Oh well. It's gonna be alright. Concerned Citizen posted:I bailed the moment I saw Biden announcing on Rose Garden with Obama. Slight profit. So it goes. Suck it nerd
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Oct 21, 2015 17:31
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I'm surprised Carson 22% is only 50/50.
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Nov 9, 2015 02:49
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Zeta Taskforce posted:How are you playing this? It looks like a complete coin flip to me. In the last 10 polls over the last month he has been below 22 exactly once. He has been a conservative icon for years and has way more staying power than any of the 2012 Romney alternatives. There has been some negative stories over that last month that are quite significant and I could see him being knocked down a few points. I don't see how the pyramid thing is any dumber than anything else he said. I was buying NO when it was in the 30's, but I have no idea how to play this when its 50/50 Now that he's a frontrunner, and given that he says a lot of stupid poo poo, people are going to keep talking about the stupid poo poo he says constantly (it fills the airwaves...) until he's been Jebbed. Most of his support seems to be pretty soft. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost a few points in the next polls that come out, and would be surprised if he didn't lose more than that over a full month of this. Certainly I wouldn't put it at 100% odds, but I dunno, 70-80? E: People are also going to pay more attention to him on Tues, and he does not do very well in debates
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Nov 9, 2015 03:23
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The stream of stupid poo poo has been pretty constant, its gotten him to frontrunner status, and most of his supporters are heavy listeners of talk radio. Until right wing radio turns against him it could go either way YOLO I'm all in
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Nov 9, 2015 06:54
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What did it even react to? I can't tell.
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Nov 16, 2015 03:18
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Vox Nihili posted:Looks like it reacted to a New Hampshire poll by Gravis that put Carson at 7% in the state. Weird, it'll probably dip back down by tomorrow. Seemed like a good selling point, might get back in if it stabilizes lower again.
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Nov 16, 2015 03:25
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Carson 22% has stabilized a bit again, lots of polls are showing him down after the Paris attacks (even if RCP doesn't count them and they're not national). Now might be another good time to buy in. E: If you can get smoeone to sell you no for 60c.
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Nov 17, 2015 17:53
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When does Louisiana resolve?
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Nov 20, 2015 00:22
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Necc0 posted:Also: Is there easy profit to be made from the switch to linked? I haven't been paying attention to all that.
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Nov 20, 2015 05:27
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JBE's poll numbers are going down the tiniest bit. With luck this will continue and there will be some last minute scraps to grab. E: Screw it, grabbed some Yes R's at 1c a bit earlier and was able to sell for 2 just now, that's a happy profit. fronz has issued a correction as of 04:03 on Nov 22, 2015 |
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Nov 22, 2015 04:00
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