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I've been trading on and off for the past few months. If you deposit by credit card, and you get 1-2% cash back on the card, that would help offset the 5% withdrawal penalty, hypothetically.
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Aug 29, 2015 21:29
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Wanamingo posted:As long as we're throwing out these protips, I'd say now's a good time to bet against Carson's poll numbers. The no shares are 20 cents each right now, and I really can't see the guy maintaining this rise until the end of the month. He's a huge idiot, but unlike Trump, he's quiet and soft spoken. Aliquid posted:Jeb is already underwater in the RCP average and he's had a bad week. NO should win out in the end and steadily trend toward 100% throughout the month imo, y'all jump in on it now. Both of these markets seem essentially to be bets on how well Carson or Bush do in the CNN debate. Bush probably does better compared to his performance in the FOX debate, and Carson, I dunno. People didn't expect much from him the first time around, but I have no clue now. There's a not insignificant chance he says something quite stupid, but then again, the GOP base loves that stuff.
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Sep 3, 2015 23:50
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Thoughts on taking advantage of the different time zones the GOP races are in tomorrow? If Trump gets good signals out of MI and MS early after those polls close, may push up the price of Trump.Yes in Idaho and Hawaii, which both close at least 3 hrs later
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Mar 8, 2016 01:08
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Hillary in Michigan is on sale
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Mar 9, 2016 02:15
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ditto only saving grace right now is no results from IL or MO
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Mar 16, 2016 01:06
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If Bernie loses every state tonight, does he drop out?
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Mar 16, 2016 02:14
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Clearly Obama is behind the SCOTUS pick leaks. Sending out false messages to manipulate the SCOTUS market on PredictIt and boost up his profits!!! 
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Mar 16, 2016 14:07
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Arkane posted:$10 Bill Stuff dangling pointer posted:https://medium.com/@USTreasury/in-photos-lin-manuel-miranda-visits-treasury-5d0b3bf42392#.bdo42i9ik If you believe that any of the choices that PredictIt gave will make it on the $10 Bill this year, then buying yes on each will guarantee a profit with the prices as they are now. Two downsides though, first that the amount of shares available is tiny, so there's not a lot of gains to be had. Second, if the Teasury picks somebody else not on the PredictIt list, you're screwed
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Mar 17, 2016 00:08
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dangling pointer posted:I wonder how/if they keep the people working on this website honest. If you knew the rule change was coming it would have been the perfect opportunity to tell your friend to max out on sub 5c Bernie shares to dump when it spiked. From your link The Treasury Department posted:1. Which woman will the Secretary choose to feature on the $10? This is going to be the first woman on US currency, so I doubt they'll go with someone as obscure as Wilma Mankiller (How many Americans even know who she is? 1%? 0.1%? Until today I didn't). If that FAQ is to be trusted, it will likely be someone related to civil rights activism, and I would think it'ld be somebody everybody knows. People know Helen Keller mostly for being blind, not for social activism. Don't think she's big enough impact. DItto for Eleanor Roosevelt, she's not who first comes to mind when you think civil rights activist. That leaves Harriet Tubman and Rosa Parks from the PredictIt list. Tubman feels more venerable to me perhaps just because what she did happened further back in the past, but that's not much to go on. Also, everybody learns about both of them in school, so name recognition is high for both. If it was anyone not from the PredictIt list, I would say Susan B Anthony. Has the name recognition there, and its because of her civil rights activism. So, I guess what do you think they'll value more: freeing slaves, ending Jim Crow, or getting women's suffrage? If I had to guess, it'ld be the first one, but it's just a guess Of course, all this could be BS and I'm way off base, so there's that Edit: Clearly going to be one of those tricks where Hamilton is still the featured portrait, but if you fold the bill a special way, you see a picture of a woman instead BigBobio has issued a correction as of 02:57 on Mar 17, 2016 |
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Mar 17, 2016 02:49
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Right now Sanders YES in AZ (.09) is cheaper than Sanders YES in MO (.10) This makes sense
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Mar 20, 2016 05:14
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Huge difference between decision desk and cnn/nytimes results. DD has Hilary up (w/ !13% in), while others have Bernie up with 7% in
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May 17, 2016 23:59
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It appears that percentages for Clinton and Sanders in the CNN and NYTimes results ignore the votes for the non-Clinton/Sanders candidates. DecisionDesk has that at 1.7% of the vote. Not a lot, but enough to compress Sanders lead over Clinton by ~1-2%
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May 18, 2016 06:09
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Just be careful with that. The rules state:quote:Any public statement(s) that Sanders supports Clinton's candidacy and/or intends to vote for her shall constitute an endorsement, unless promptly qualified by an express statement that it does not constitute an endorsement. Who knows what PredictIt considers prompt, but Bernie does get a (brief) window for a take-backsies. What would be interesting is if "clarifies" by saying that yes he's voting for her, but he's not endorsing her yet. Since he would be confirming that he's voting for her, that counts according to their rules? Fake Edit: In CNN interview, he's voting for Clinton "in all likelihood" https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/746320904641183744
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Jun 24, 2016 13:44
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Gyges posted:You can make a pretty decent return on investment without obsessively watching the site. You just have to be willing to sit on the longer markets where you know what is going to happen but the pay off is a ways away. Or bet on shorter markets with the goal of picking the position to ride until the market closes instead of playing the swings. There's a lot less gain, but if you do it right there's not too much risk either. This. If you think Hillary will be the next president, there are 7 contracts out there you can buy in at around ~70 cents each. Sure, you have to wait ~4 months to see if you're right, but its a ~30% ROI.
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Jul 1, 2016 00:16
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CARL MARK FORCE IV posted:Just so you know, buying the shares at 70 means .30 in profit per share, which makes it more like a 45% ROI. Necc0 posted:That's not how you calculate ROI!!! I included the 10% profit penalty, and the 5% withdrawal fee, assuming you put in fresh funds just for these markets and then immediately withdrew it all once you won Gyges posted:Directly Hillary wins markets: You can add "Will Republicans control the white house & congress after 2016" to this list BigBobio has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jul 1, 2016 |
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Jul 1, 2016 01:36
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Whoops; Double post
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Jul 1, 2016 01:40
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Any thoughts on the supreme court markets w/ the Trump implosion? If the thinking is that the Senate will bring Garland's appointment to vote after a Clinton win, then it's a decent bet at a good price compared to the POTUS markets. But McConell et al have said otherwise, stating no vote at all. But I wonder how much of that from Senate Republicans is pre-election talk
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Oct 8, 2016 15:02
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