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This trolling is like something Onion Biden would do.
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Oct 20, 2015 22:34
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Necc0 posted:I just want to establish this rule right now : Whether or not Biden ends up running whoever ends up being right isn't allowed to gloat about it too much. You can gloat a bit though. Just a bit. Can I gloat extra for having kept the same position for months?
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Oct 21, 2015 10:07
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Told you.
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Oct 21, 2015 20:15
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Could someone explain this to me https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1749/Will-Donald-Trump-become-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-in-2016#data https://www.predictit.org/Contract/982/Will-Donald-Trump-become-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-this-year#data
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Dec 12, 2015 12:20
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Necc0 posted:Yeah exactly. It almost feels like Biden.Run all over again where I have all the Very Serious people telling me to ignore the reality right in front of me. The guy is filling stadiums on an almost daily basis. I'm the one who was right about Biden No from the very beginning no matter how bad the hype got, and regarding Trump, I can tell you one thing: I don't know lol.
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Dec 20, 2015 12:38
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Necc0 posted:Whole lot of new markets for 2016: Friend Ben is has an unusually high valuation in the dropout market.
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Dec 28, 2015 20:42
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Analyst wisdom says Trump Iowa is slightly overvalued and Cruz slightly undervalued, but you have to remember who you're dealing with. If I was betting I'd never mess with any markets that Trump affected.
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Jan 9, 2016 07:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Managed to get 400 shares of Bush making the next major debate at 95c a pop. Slow and steady. Doesn't the way the fees work mean you don't make any money off those?
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Jan 9, 2016 21:24
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Yeah his Iowa shares just went up 12¢ in 10 hours.
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Jan 11, 2016 23:02
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Predictit tends to be the most susceptible to wishful thinking of betting markets. It usually manifests as boosts to Trump and Bernie.
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Jan 11, 2016 23:54
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Misc posted:TRUMP.SWEEP4.NO trading at 76¢ seems like quick easy money if he doesn't win in Iowa. If you think he's going to lose Iowa, you can actually make more money off of CRUZ.IACAUCUS16.GOP at 62¢. I mean, unless you think someone else would take it.
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Jan 12, 2016 00:31
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Misc posted:TRUMP.SWEEP4.NO trading at 76¢ seems like quick easy money if he doesn't win in Iowa. If you think he's going to lose Iowa, you can actually make more money off of CRUZ.IACAUCUS16.GOP at 62¢. I mean, unless you think someone else would take it.
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Jan 12, 2016 00:44
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Jan 15, 2016 23:53
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If you have reason to believe Cruz will take Iowa, I'd wait until the next set of polls before you buy in that direction.
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Jan 16, 2016 22:05
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Take it from the guy who was the most right about Biden: Trump will not be at the debate.
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Jan 27, 2016 20:36
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Trump showing up late would be too amazing even for him.
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Jan 28, 2016 21:36
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Platystemon posted:Hey Cruz, why don’t you put your money where your mouth is? He already put tens of millions of dollars on Trump showing up.
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Jan 28, 2016 21:45
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Always bet on Trump. 
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Jan 28, 2016 22:17
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Jewel Repetition posted:Take it from the guy who was the most right about Biden: Trump will not be at the debate. Wow, every prediction this guy has made has been correct.
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Jan 29, 2016 05:50
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Gibberish posted:I'm shocked that Trump's IOWA.YES is only at 63 cents. Seems like a complete steal, I'm putting $100 into it right now. I'd be cautious, like usual, with Trump bets. We're in totally uncharted territory with him skipping the debate. I personally expect him to win but it's not that certain.
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Jan 29, 2016 08:25
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Something I've never understood: what's with all the comments supporting predictions? Isn't that irrational to do, if you're actually stating what you believe, since it's encouraging the market to move against your moneymaking? Or are they all saying the opposite of what they think?
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Jan 29, 2016 19:55
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Tomorrow at 5:30 there's going to be a stream on desmoinesregister.com leading up to a 5:45 announcement of the polling results. This is the one done by a legendary revered pollster famous for predicting Obama in 2008. It's probably going to affect the Iowa markets a lot. Just a heads up.
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Jan 30, 2016 05:43
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A Time To Chill posted:Heh well when all the candidates except Carson phase out of this reality on Monday, we'll see who has $100 http://www.theonion.com/article/terrified-jeb-bush-beginning-fade-visible-spectrum-52060
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Jan 31, 2016 09:19
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Snipe alert: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/509/Will-Ted-Cruz-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination#data
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Feb 2, 2016 09:52
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a cop posted:Imo trump people are going to get indignant over his iowa loss and show up to primaries in droves. It's mostly up to him and the media whether that happens, but I'm not counting on it.
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Feb 3, 2016 07:34
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Vox Nihili posted:Trump Yes in NH is going up steadily, will probably hit 74c by tomorrow. I'd take a short position on it right now because of the poll teased for 6 am EST.
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Feb 5, 2016 06:43
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Aliquid posted:I agree, jitters may put him down to .66 before or after the debate. Rationally yes but the debate's not as sure of a thing (in my mind) as the poll.
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Feb 5, 2016 06:49
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Vox Nihili posted:Which poll is that? I don't remember the pollster but it was talked about in the Republican thread. The results are supposedly "interesting."
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Feb 5, 2016 09:29
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a cop posted:Trump gonna surge. 
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Feb 5, 2016 09:32
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Snipe alert: unless there's news or insider info I haven't seen, Rubio nom is a little undervalued right now, believe it or not: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/438/Will-Marco-Rubio-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination#data
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Feb 8, 2016 13:56
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Flavahbeast posted:I think it's probably undervalued but I also think he's likely to drop more before the primary. I also think there's a chance he won't recover at all and Trump will actually pull off the nomination lmao I think it's going to go up a little bit from the UMASS poll where he's second, and peak before the primary. But yeah it could stay depressed if he doesn't come in second.
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Feb 8, 2016 14:04
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Vox Nihili posted:Rubio is undervalued IMO. Picked up 200 shares at 29c. Agreed about Rubio, but I'm one of the people who thinks Cruz has practically zero chance so to me he's overvalued. Btw the midnight votes gave Cruz and Kasich boosts for NH win, because people who use predictit are stupid.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:46
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Corrupt Politician posted:I have a bunch of USPREZ16.SANDERS.NO worth a lot less than I paid for them in December. It's currently at 77c and I'm trying to decide whether to sell now. I guess it depends whether his NH win is already baked into that number, although I can't imagine a justification for it going much lower unless he wins by like 25 points. The answer to "is the outcome baked in" is almost always "no." So you could probably make more money selling afterwards as long as Bernie's margin isn't embarrassingly small.
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Feb 9, 2016 18:52
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JosefStalinator posted:Yeah, the Dem nom is the good long term play. I think it's a combination of the narrative about Kasichmentum, Jeb's impenetrable aura of failure, and the midnight votes.
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Feb 9, 2016 18:57
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Note: exit polls aren't going to be predictive right now because of the bias toward the highly engaged, unemployed, and smaller towns. But I want them anyway.
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Feb 9, 2016 23:08
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Abel Wingnut posted:rubio NO for second at $.76 seems pretty solid, no? No.
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Feb 9, 2016 23:32
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I don't want to rule it out, so I can keep my perfect record, but Rubio not coming in second is less likely than they think.
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Feb 9, 2016 23:44
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Protip: if you've made money off TRUMP.SCPRMRY16.GOP sell before Sunday.
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Feb 12, 2016 09:17
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a cop posted:You really think he's going to lose? No, I just think the new polls are going to damage his stock slightly because the race will be tighter. You can buy them up again after the polls are released to RIDE THE WAVE.
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Feb 12, 2016 09:31
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a cop posted:Hmmmm. Think they'll get lower than 60 cents though??? Possibly right at the initial overreaction.
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Feb 12, 2016 09:40
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