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Not on here (yet) but when I go there I found the current prices for the Republican nomination. When you add these numbers up you get 224%. Is there some way to exploit this oddity, like somehow bet against all of them and make a risk free bet? I read the FAQ and I know you lose 5% when you redeem your money, it might be tedious to set up the bets, and you would need to put up a lot of money on the lower tier for a very small payout, but there is no way Ben Carson has a 13% chance, Jindal 7% or Rand 12% Jeb Bush 39¢ Marco Rubio 27¢ Scott Walker 24¢ Donald Trump 20¢ John Kasich 16¢ Ted Cruz 15¢ Carly Fiorina 14¢ Ben Carson 13¢ Rand Paul 12¢ Chris Christie 11¢ Mitt Romney 7¢ Bobby Jindal 7¢ Mike Huckabee 6¢ Rick Santorum 6¢ Rick Perry 5¢ Lindsey Graham 3¢ Paul Ryan 2¢ Mike Pence 2¢ George Pataki 2¢ Sarah Palin 1¢ Susana Martinez 1¢
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Aug 23, 2015 04:09
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What's a reasonable amount of money to put into this? I know you can bet $850 max per market but is there some upper amount of money where people have found it tedious to try to accumulate enough shares to make it worth it? Or are the markets fluid enough that if you want to buy 1000 shares and you put in some reasonable price in the middle of the trading range they tend to be quickly filled so it is a moot point?
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Aug 28, 2015 00:48
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:When a new market opens, how many total shares are available to begin with? Or am I misunderstanding how it's set up? I'm learning this just like you, but if I understand correctly there are no set number of shares. It's not like an IPO where 10,000 shares are up for sale. Instead when the market opens there are zero shares but they become created whenever a yes buyer and a no buyer agree on a price and create a transaction. There isn't a limit to how many shares can be created. Even later on if you want to buy no, you can purchase someone's no shares at the price they wish to sell, in which no new shares are created, or a new yes can come along and a new share will be created. If I am totally off base, let me know.
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Aug 29, 2015 05:18
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I'm trying to load up on Obamacare being under 42.5%. I'm buying no at 97. RCP is currently at 40.2% and unless a poll is released tomorrow (unlikely) with approval over 52% (even more unlikely) it seems like free money and a 2 day return of 3%
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Aug 30, 2015 21:59
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Is there some way to know what polls will be released? I'm looking at Obama's approval rating, RCP puts it at 44.9%. The contract closes in 2 days, and the contracts that are hovering around that number are in the 40 to 60 cent range. There isn't some calendar where we know that Fox or CNN or whoever is going to release something tomorrow?
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Sep 2, 2015 17:58
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Stereotype posted:There's a good chance that Christie won't be in the next CNN debate, which has NOs trading at only 20c. He is currently ranked 10, tied with Paul, and is 11th according to the latest CNN poll. They are only letting 10 people in. I was crushed betting against Fiorina being included. CNN seems so whimsical now that I won't touch anything there for any price. They could be letting in 10, maybe 11, or it will be a tie and they will make it 12.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:21
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Why are these contracts so close to 50 cents? http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractId=1170#data1 https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractId=1171#data1 The RCP average is 44.8% and the contract ends today. I doubt they will be purging old polls in the next 13 hours, and I imagine that any polls coming out today would already be out. Am I missing something?
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Sep 4, 2015 16:13
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I somehow timed the Trump <25 perfect. I had bought at 75 last week, saw him dropping and sold at 80 last night and reversed the bet thinking it might be an arbitrage opportunity. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Just wish I would have bought more "No" last night. Unfortunately it doesn't make up for the disastrous bet that CNN would exclude Carly in the debate. I also got burned on the Obama approval ratings, which suckered me in, but might as well be random. 
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Sep 24, 2015 17:00
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I think there is money to be made betting that Bush will be over 10%. The current polling is 9.8% which being a week away, no recent polls, Trump falling, the oldest poll being 9% and his strong debate performance means it should be at least even money, but YES is currently trading in the low 30's.
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Sep 25, 2015 22:29
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Rand Paul dropping out next seems way overvalued, especially when there are still so many pointless candidate remaining. He knows he isnt going to win but I see him going all the way to the convention to try to influence the debate.
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Sep 29, 2015 22:42
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:I'm expecting him to drop out quick, so the payoff won't be that long. What are you talking about? You mean the price to drop out quick or the non-candidate to drop out quick?
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Oct 7, 2015 18:30
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Gyges posted:Thanks to team Biden, you can still buy into him not showing up for the debate in the mid 80s. Something that he has already said he is not doing. Other than a long shot on Chafee/Webb winning/losing/most speaking time, it's the biggest money maker in the debate group. The Yes contract is in the 6 or 7 range. I bought some up to hedge my Biden No position. So low there is hardly any downside. I don't think he's going to run, but assuming he jumps in the race (in the next few days) the CNN debate Yes is going to massively surge.
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Oct 11, 2015 20:02
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Gyges posted:Why are the Yes shares on Chafee, O'Malley, and Webb having the worst polling impact so high? None of them are even polling at 1%, normal flux of Clinton and Sanders is greater than their total. Super extra why is Lincln Chafee, currently sitting at .2% selling at the 3rd highest for yes at the moment? I wouldn't put too much meaning in these bottom tier Democrats numbers; they are illiquid, thinly traded and have almost no shares outstanding. As of right now there were 2 shares traded on Chafee today, 1 for O'Mally (which was me, I sold one at 96 so I could play in other markets. I'm going to hold onto my other 9) and exactly 0 traded for Webb. I can see why YES for Walker has value too. No one is amassing yes shares based on some unlikely scenario where he gets back in or wins a brokered convention. This is thinly traded too. The reason it has value is that there is $12,000 in value tied up in NO shares and they are hard to sell. There is a limited number of people who will want to take on ownership at 99 cents and sit on it for who knows how long contract end date 9-15-2016. Heck, probably no one. We are talking money market level rates of return. The vast majority of the trades that will happen over the next 11 months will be holders of NO selling them at 97, 96, 95, etc to other traders who want NO and don't mind having their money tied up forever. This isn't a poll that will be decided in 2 weeks. When you factor in time, the value of a Walker NO probably really is 95 or 96 which is why the value of a Walker YES really is 4 or 5.
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Oct 13, 2015 02:06
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EngineerSean posted:I think there's a flaw to this math. As you said, the main reason why Walker NO might be 95 is because your money is locked up for a year. However, I don't believe that actually makes Walker YES have a value of 5, I think that makes the value of the entire contract 95. I know that every NO share has a YES share to balance it out but if nobody's buying at 5, the value isn't 5, it's just people selling NO at a slight loss here. How is that? You're right that a contract can be created when a YES and a NO buyer connect. The value will be $1.00. By definition the contract ALWAYS has to be $1.00. Once created there is no mechanism for a contract to be destroyed or used up. In the Walker example, if NO is 95, then yes value HAS to be 5. Your original basis is what determines if you sold your YES or NO for a loss. In the Walker contract, I can see how and why NO sellers drove the price down to 96, but it is weird that sellers of YES are not driving their price down to 1. Necc0 posted:God that's tempting. I told myself I've already put enough into that market though. Are all of us NO? This market is amazing. I've never had more than $40 in there at any one time and made close to $10 in the last week by buying every time it dips and selling every time it mildly spikes. I hope he never declares anything.
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Oct 13, 2015 05:40
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Fuschia tude posted:Huh? Yes, there is. Every contract needs a holder on each end. If I have a BIDENRUN No for sale at $.45, and a Yes holder agrees that $.55 is a good price to sell, then that trade executes, we each go down a share and up in credit, and those two shares are destroyed. Buying isn't the only possible transaction. That makes sense. I learned something
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Oct 13, 2015 15:12
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Stereotype posted:I'm putting some money on Bernie trying to talk a lot I'm taking the opposite track where Chafee, Webb and O'Malley keep contrasting themselves to Clinton and the moderators ask her to respond. Speaking of which, is there a good way to find out if they will follow the same format as the Republican debate?
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Oct 13, 2015 22:38
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Stereotype posted:Sanders down 10 points 5 minutes into the debate What market is that?
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Oct 14, 2015 02:05
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Aliquid posted:Unless you see a quick return on your other stuff, I think you made a mistake. A lot of Biden YES people were hedging on Hillary flaming out in the debate, and now that she's shown she's fine on stage it seems less likely he jumps in. Plus, the market will essentially close (or jump up to .80ish and stay there) on Halloween which isn't that far away, investment-wise. This is a very accurate assessment. I think NO will be 70 by the end of the week.
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Oct 14, 2015 05:29
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Wanamingo posted:Betting against Sanders' monthly poll numbers seems pretty good right now. It's 36 cents for a no share, he's sitting at 25.1% right now, and the next poll to drop will be one that had him at 35%. Not exactly a guaranteed bet, but I like it. That is a good catch. I just got some at 37. But I'm going against you for Paul Ryan. Betting that the establishment manages to guilt trip him into doing it
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Oct 14, 2015 16:45
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EngineerSean posted:The Biden argument When you put it that way... ...you have a point. My mind is bound by logic and the laws of physics. For that matter so is Ryan's brain. I am incapable of grasping the hatred the ultra right wing has for political reality and governing. NO isn't easy money either. I'm sitting this one out. Sold my 60 shares for a total loss of about $4.00.
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Oct 14, 2015 18:38
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If anyone wants to make a guaranteed 5% return and you can hold out for a week there are 340 shares at 95 right now for Chafee to be the biggest CNN debate loser. He is currently polling at 0.3%
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Oct 14, 2015 19:57
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Aliquid posted:why am i liquidating long-term shares in other markets at a loss to buy more biden NO Gyges posted:That is a good question. Don't do that. At worst liquidate at break even. I know it's a mental thing, but you need to focus on the future prospects of the shares, not what you paid for them. This is the sunk cost fallacy. If you are sitting on something that is bumping along that you don't really believe in anymore at the price its at and there is another market that is more promising, you should sell it. It doesn't matter what you paid for it. If anything, selling something at a loss is better because you won't pay the transaction fee. If something is down and that made it undervalued, then sure wait for it to return to the fair value you perceive. But if you originally misjudged something, got excited about something you shouldn't have, overpaid for it, or new info came out that changed the price, you don't want to hang onto a stinker waiting indefinitely for it to recover. Finally, a lot of the long duration markets are not very liquid, so be patient. Just because you want to unload something doesn't mean you need to give it away. If there is a wide spread between the bid and the ask, just put your offer in for something in the middle. Finally, I'm with you on Biden NO, but weird things can happen and you don't want to be so sure about something that you get in too deep. So if you are already massive into it, let it be. I'm working out of a massive hole because I made some rookie mistakes where I bet wrong on Obama's approval numbers and I was SOOOOOO sure that Carly wouldn't participate in the CNN first tier debate.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:11
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If history is any guide, this can go on a really long time http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/22/nyregion/how-final-curtain-fell-on-a-10-week-melodrama.html This is a fascinating read. In 1991 Mario Cuomo kept the nation waiting for months as he went back and forth, never making up his mind if he was running. The drama ended hours before the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary with 2 planes idling on the tarmac waiting so he could hand deliver the papers. They were originally going to fly to Manchester and then drive to Concord, but as the clock ran down they realized they didn't have enough time to drive so they decided to fly directly to Concord instead. Of course he never got on that plane. Can you imagine how crazy PredictIt would have been had it existed in 1991 and how much money you would have made (or lost) if all the cable news and Twitter were pumping this for 2 months?
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Oct 16, 2015 05:43
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Abel Wingnut posted:you guys on mobile are in for a treat! My heart skipped a beat this morning when it looked like I had negative $12.00. I wondered if I somehow bought Biden NO on margin and he declared
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Oct 16, 2015 15:03
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The Obama polls are 100% coin flip gambling fests. I now only tip toe in on Fridays and bet NO on the tranche that is mathematically impossible. I am fine with a 1 or 2% return. Reading the comments on there, and the Biden boosters are the worst, followed by the Bernie ones. I am reminded compared to the rest of the internet, SA is a lonely island of sanity. Although our Bernie ones are pretty bad too.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:41
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Concerned Citizen posted:I think you're setting the threshold for a Biden run too high. He only needs a plausible path, not a probable path, to run. That plausibility still exists. Remember, this is a guy who ran for President against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards in 2008. He has a lot of reason to see his position as much better now than it was - against a smaller slate of candidates with much less star power, and he's a sitting VP. It doesn't matter what I think, or any of us think. There is a plausible path for him to run. There are people who want him to. He will get millions of votes. But his first day could be his best. He risks his legacy as a popular vice president who served the nation admirably while dealing with personal tragedy and becoming another candidate who gets 3% in Iowa. The moment he enters, the gloves come off. He was advising Obama not to to go after the Pakistan Osama raid. There is likely other advice that he tried to give that if followed would have turned out bad. Hillary will not be afraid to do what is needed to cut him down and couldn't be in a better position to know his weak points. To have this intra-administration fight played out weakens the entire Obama brand and tarnishes the legacy of the administration he served in and makes Hillary a weaker general election candidate. This is not original thought and you know that prominent Democrats are telling the same thing to him privately.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:54
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Concerned Citizen posted:He has very clearly laid the groundwork for a run. He has done everything you would do if you were running except actually announce. He's doing everything except going to debates, giving his stump speech, doing town hall discussions in early states, fundraising, ad buys. But other than that he's doing everything
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Oct 16, 2015 22:16
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Wanamingo posted:At this point, I have around 90% of my money sitting on Biden NO. Once the rest of my shares mature I'll probably make it 100%. You have a stronger stomach than I do. I sold about 25% in the high 60's and managed to sell 24 of them at 71. Every dip I'm buying 10 or 15 shares but selling 20 or 25 every little spike. At this point its about 15% of my portfolio. It really could go either way. I am heavily invested in Webb, Chafee and Biden (read the rules people!) not being the biggest loser in the polls. I was able to buy a bunch of Webb for 85 and my average basis is 89. My basis in Chafee is 93.
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Oct 17, 2015 21:00
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Gyges posted:It was up to 55 earlier. This is the market that must not stabilize. It's fun to play the swings. I sold 10 at 50 a few hours ago. I'm trying to buy 25 at 41 right now. I've been trying to lighten my Chafee NO. I want to be exposed to it, but not over exposed. It's unlikely, but depending on how RCP drops their polls and what comes out in the next couple days, Bernie might bump up a bit over where he started the week. Webb had a couple polls come out where he wasn't zero and Hillary is up with her performance.
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Oct 19, 2015 00:04
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Gyges posted:Of course RCP gonna do what they do so double who the gently caress knows. The polls would be a whole lot better if we were getting polls at a rate like we used to in previous presidential contests. Also, Biden makes everything more unpredicatble. To be fair to RCP and polls, we are still 13 months away so we shouldn't expect huge frequency yet and somewhere between 99.9999% and 100% of the population doesn't have money tied up in guessing what polls are going to drop off.
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Oct 19, 2015 00:28
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I sold 25 Biden NO at 50 yesterday, I just bought it back right now at 25. See what happens. It feels like we are close so something but how many people expected a big announcement on Colbert?
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Oct 19, 2015 16:46
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Fuschia tude posted:Interesting what just happened to the Jim Webb Drops Out First market. Combed Thunderclap posted:He just announced he wants to run as an independent, apparently. PredictIt Rules posted:The first official Democratic presidential candidate to publicly announce the suspension or termination of his or her candidacy or of his or her active campaigning for President or the Democratic nomination for President in the 2016 election shall be the individual identified in the question. Qualifying announcements may be made verbally or in writing by the candidate, the candidate’s campaign committee, or an authorized representative of such committee. Such announcement need not be accompanied by filing of a termination report or any other documents with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). My reading of the rules is that if Webb drops out as a Democrat but launches an independent campaign then this doesn't count as a drop out. Does anyone else have a different reading?
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Oct 20, 2015 02:22
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Thanks  You just saved me some money
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Oct 20, 2015 02:35
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You guys are a lot more hard core. I have 97 shares now, so no matter what happens I'm not wiped out. I hope he never announces. It's fun playing the swings. My cost basis has been coming down all day. It's now 25.  I'm going to buy more on the next dip and sell some on the next spike.
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Oct 20, 2015 05:26
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Concerned Citizen posted:I'm not sure that's the right move. We already passed the initial date, and it was already moved from Nov 5 to Nov 3. It could possibly move but I suspect Boehner is just going to put up a clean debt increase and pass it with Dem votes + a few GOPers prior to that. After Nov 3 they have to prioritize spending which means a technical default. I think you're right about this, at least as long as Boehner is Speaker. It's pretty safe to resolve as YES, but I don't think it will be a straight line between here and there. The tea party, freedom caucus, or whatever you want to call them will do what they can to drive the car off the cliff. Right wing talk radio will get everyone excited and it could go right down to the wire. I'm going to dabble in, see what I can get in the 20's for NO and see if I can double my money at some point.
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Oct 21, 2015 02:57
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Abel Wingnut posted:my guess: wednesday's market will wrecking-ball around a lot like monday's market. remember, on monday several talking heads were saying something'd happen within 48hr. predictitors won't forget that. plus, biden's speaking to URI. they're going to shake and bake at every little tweet. Today's market was weird. Crazy volume that failed to move it in any direction. 80,000 shares traded, which is tons compared to any day except yesterday. Chunks of hundreds or thousands of shares on both sides that were orderly chewed through. I'm not making any predictions other that I will be selling if it goes above 35 and buying below 25, trying not to get in too deep but still having enough skin in the game for a decent payout I just realized that I have cleared $25 after fees in the last week from constantly buying and selling. Which probably works out to $2/hour when I should be doing homework and writing papers.
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Oct 21, 2015 06:07
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Gyges posted:Thank you Diamond Joe. I should finally be up from my disastrous string of bets on Fiorina, the Debt Ceiling, and Trump polls. Me too! I nailed the Trump poll but between Fiorina, government shut down, and the Obama approval polls that beacon like a Greek Siren call, I'm finally up too!!!!!!!! Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 17:30 on Oct 21, 2015 |
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Oct 21, 2015 17:26
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The site crashed so I may or may not have put in a sell order for everything at 98.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:31
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If I can pick up some YES for 1 or 2 cents I'm really tempted. The draft Biden crowd is crazy, the contract won't close for a long time, its going to bounce around, and he is still the backup in the unlikely event Hillary crashes
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Oct 21, 2015 17:38
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Vox Nihili posted:1830 shares... Sell at 98c or wait for the full payout? Don't be greedy. Sell now. quote:Joseph R. Biden, Jr. shall become a candidate for president of the United States in the 2016 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy and/or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission. I welcome other readings, but the way I look at it, the only way the contract resolves early is through a YES outcome. An announcement declaring NO does not shut it down early as there is nothing that precludes him changing his mind before December 31, 2015. If the Walker drop out is any indication, it crashes to 1cent the moment of the announcement, and then meanders aimlessly up to 3, 4, or 5 cents over the following months. Sell now
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Oct 21, 2015 18:07
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