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I lost about $4.00 on the lottery ticket idea that they would judge it as weasel words and not close the market right away. Oh well. I'm eyeing the Florida Trump vs Clinton polling. I'm betting that polls will swing Clinton's way as the tiny percentage of people who were on the fence get completely disgusted with the Trump foundation inside dealing and that she won't collapse in a coughing fit at the debate and people realize she isn't near death. That said just about everything is tied up in Clinton not dropping out in September, I refuse to sell for less than 97 cents, and it is rising in value grudgingly slow....Going to build a position in B2
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Sep 24, 2016 00:45
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TheDeadFlagBlues posted:Trumptards going all-in on ME-2; Republican NO is currently worth 28 cents. I highly recommend snapping this up considering that all ME-2 polls are either junk polls conducted by drooling idiots or small-sample crosstabs. 28 cents is probably oversold, but for the reasons I said a few weeks ago Trump will win ME-2. I've missed out on oversold bounces but I don't like to be on the wrong side of what I think will actually happen. But the Trumptards are insufferable. It's unbelievable that you can still buy into Clinton not dropping out by the 30th for 95 cents on September 26th. I am lukewarm at best on Hillary, but the idea that a woman who has been running for president for the last 25 years is anything less than tough as steel and can't hold on for the next 6 weeks, say nothing of the next 4 days is crazy talk.
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Sep 26, 2016 15:56
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a cop posted:Soooo this debate is loving amazing. Good luck fellow "not most watched" buddies Good luck with that. You guys have a way stronger stomach than I do
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Sep 27, 2016 02:49
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a cop posted:I wonder how Nielson handles the streaming #s. Do they ask the providers for an "Average viewers" figure, or just take the view #? If it's the latter, at what time do they get the #, since it's only going up with time? I don't have a dog in this fight, I'm thinking of throwing a few dollars to most watched, but only a few dollars. But shouldn't streaming be a lower number proportionally to the primary debates? Think about it, it a debate is on some obscure cable channel like Fox Business News, a lot of people HAVE to stream it. But when something is shown on every single network and along with at least 10 other cable channels why would anyone deal with jerky video streams? Practically everyone owns a TV and a set of rabbit ears would be enough to pull it in
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Sep 27, 2016 17:46
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Vox Nihili posted:Goon project was No on a record-setting debate. We were basically correct that the estimations were quite inflated, but in the end we still lost! I'm sure lots of people sold off some of their holdings, though, I know I did. You're really good at this but when it stops being fun its time to get out. That was me this spring. Not nearly as good as you, but I still managed $500 into $1800 on the eve of Super Tuesday. Bet wrong on everything but still had $1400. I cashed $1000 out and decided to play with the rest. I got hit by 2 black swan events in a row (Cruz winning Maine, Bernie winning Michigan, went in all the way after Refdesk called it for Hillary) and cashed out again with about $9. Basically it sucked and I was shaken. They lured me back with a $25 credit if I put $25 in. I now have $80. For me that amount of money is fun. BTW, I made about $10 betting against everyone on the debate viewership. I hope this becomes fun for you at some time in the future; you make us all better
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Sep 28, 2016 03:05
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I just started watching. I bet tax returns - yes Charlotte - No Epipen - No Sanctuary Cities - No Transgender - No How am I doing?
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Oct 5, 2016 02:49
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The Trump Pants on Fire market is clearly still traumatized by what happened last month. 3 days out (with 2 of them being Saturday and Sunday where I doubt anything will happen) and B5 is still trading under 80. https://www.predictit.org/Market/2427/How-many-totally-false-statements-will-Trump-make-in-September
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Oct 7, 2016 03:33
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Platystemon posted:lol if you take this bet I've got $20 on it. See if I can turn it into $25
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Oct 7, 2016 04:49
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Raivin posted:"She's been fighting ISIS her entire adult life" and claiming a public figure has a sex tape when she doesn't. I wouldn't touch "3 or fewer" til 11:55pm on the final day, and even then maybe not. I'm selling if it spikes to 95 but "fighting ISIS her entire adult life" is so absurd and was more a misspeak by a guy who was flustered at a debate. Sex tape is ambiguous enough that I don't think it rises to POF. There isn't a sex tape but there is footage of her probably having sex at night under covers on that Spanish big brother knockoff. Enough for it to be rated "mostly false" but not POF. Not betting the farm but I like my chances in the 75-80 range. Raivin posted:It looks like the Nobel Peace Prize market broke PI. I guess they've never had a market resolve all NO before? So that's what happened? Last year they had a none of the above. I was going to pick that one but couldn't find it. Dumb oversight on their part Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 16:13 on Oct 7, 2016 |
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Oct 7, 2016 16:11
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Necc0 posted:Didn't the $10 bill market resolve all-no? Isnt that still kicking around with all of them trading at 2 cents?
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Oct 7, 2016 16:21
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My predictions: Syria - Yes Podesta - No Common Core - No NAFTA - No
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Oct 10, 2016 01:57
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Zeta Taskforce posted:My predictions: Looks like I'm 4/4. I didn't bet more than 20 shares on any of them though.
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Oct 10, 2016 04:09
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Ditocoaf posted:EDIT: In retrospect, this looks like pumping, and I loathe the idea that goons would pump inour thread instead of the comments of PI itself. Please don't listen to me, I've been bathing in the very liberal SI USPol thread, and am betting on a landslide partly just to justify obsession with the minutiae. The other half of my PI money is in prezparty16.republican.no and equivilant, You're fine. If you find a good opportunity on there go ahead and mention it. I kind of assume that you are already bought into it and I don't care. If you bought into something because of some weird price fluctuation, underreported news, or some solid reasoning or analysis that when such and such happens then that other event usually follows and you bought into it based on your sincerely held beliefs, then tell me why its a trading opportunity or a long term buy. It also doesn't matter if the passage of time proves you wrong. Its up to me to do my due dilligence, evaluate it based on the current price, and good on you if I move the market in your favor. To me that's not pumping. Plus we are a tiny percentage of PI users To me pumping is something where you know something is crap and you try to push it anyway with slanted info to try to trick me into buying it so you can get out at a better price. I don't think anyone has ever done here that and if they did I believe it would be a bannable offense Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 05:35 on Oct 10, 2016 |
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Oct 10, 2016 05:32
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skaboomizzy posted:You can still buy Pence.Dropout at 23. Or that he doesn't for 77. It might get cheaper first, but he's not going anywhere. He has already made his bed and is smart enough to lie on it. His best case for long term viability is for Trump to lose but put in a respectable result. That would be something like losing 49-43 and getting more than 200 electoral votes. He gets nothing by quitting the ticket last minute, especially after Donald did good enough to stop the free fall tonight.
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Oct 10, 2016 05:46
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Or just trade the volatility. Don't laugh at my tiny 
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Oct 10, 2016 05:58
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I got caught on the wrong side of the Jill Stein polling that's closing tomorrow. Fox replaced a 2 with a 3. I'm trying to figure out if the market reaction was justified or did YES overshoot
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Oct 14, 2016 01:37
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I think the reason I'm going to get a W2-G form from PredictIt is because of guys like that
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Oct 14, 2016 20:34
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Don't bet on polls, but the Clinton v Trump in Pennsylvania is way over priced in B1 for Clinton. She is ahead, she is going to stay ahead. Pennsylvania is not a swing state with her current numbers. That said she is not going to lead by +10 and if you agree and you're patient you can make that bet for the mid 70's
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Oct 16, 2016 14:09
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Nosre posted:https://www.predictit.org/Market/2451/What-will-be-the-2016-presidential-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory is looking tempting with all this talk/signs of Clinton overperforming. If she beats 2008 Obama (7.26%) and gets to 8, the top 3 brackets can be had for 50c total. It may be a great bet, but the risk is that Trump racks up bigger wins in deep red states like Oklahoma, West Virginia, deep south than McCain or loses less bad in New England and the Mid Atlantic. Neither will sway the overall election but both could mean that Trump over performs relative to McCain. Trump will underperform in Utah, Georgia, Arizona, over perform in Iowa and Indiana. Keep in mind how unpopular W was in 08 and that we were still in the panic phase of the great recession. It would probably pay off in the end considering how many women despise Trump, but you should not view this as free money.
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Oct 17, 2016 21:55
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The credit card interest is insignificant. The bigger deal is it represents leverage. Like anything that is levered if you win your wins will be magnified. But your losses too. And you will be left with the debt even if you no longer have the money. Admittedly it will be tempting if Hillary winning can still be bought for 80 cents the day of the election and it is being propped up by Trump rally goers living in a bubble
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Oct 17, 2016 22:19
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Necc0 posted:Missouri clusterfuck I was gone for about 6 months. What happened?
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Oct 18, 2016 01:27
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Platystemon posted:The winner wasn’t officially called, to PI’s satisfaction, some long period of time. They can be weird like that. I remember how the Nevada market required the Secretary of State certify the results and either that person didn't exist or that wasn't their role
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Oct 18, 2016 01:41
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Fitzy Fitz posted:Can someone elaborate on this? It's been years since I've taken a math class and I want to not be dumb anymore. Your math equation came through weird on my phone, but selling at 94 cents does not make more sense than selling at $1.00. Say that you put $800 into a market that trades at 80 cents and you hold it to the end you will have $1000. You are automatically dinged $20 on the $200 profit, you have $980 in your account. Take that out and you lose another $49. You are ahead $131. If instead you sell at 94 then you will have $940 in the account, $140 being profit. They will take $14 leaving you with $926. When you close the account they will take $46.30. You will pull out $879.70. Ultimately you will be ahead by $79.70. They take more money in scenario 1, but only because there is a bigger pool of profits and money there. You should be trying to make as much as possible. .
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Oct 19, 2016 17:19
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Fitzy Fitz posted:Yeah, seems likely. quote:While anchors from ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN have all moderated in the past, this is the first time the 20-year-old has been included in the moderator pool. The article seems to be missing a key word? I don't have a lot of big bets going on, but I'm Handshake - yes The optics looked so weird last time, they want to avoid such awkwardness this time. Right? Podesta - no McMuffin - no Just bought NO on the top 3 viewership tiers. as long as it comes in below 70 I'll make a 30% return. The record was 66.9 million in 1992 when there was a significant 3rd party and everything else was a lot lower. Based on games in the Chicago and LA, the 2nd and 3rd largest cities, general fatigue and disgust, not hitting 70 seems like a given. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 23:08 on Oct 19, 2016 |
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Oct 19, 2016 21:21
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Vox Nihili posted:Only jumped in on the handshake market due to this weirdness: http://www.mediaite.com/online/report-clinton-requested-to-skip-pre-debate-handshakes-between-her-family-and-trumps/ Sold my handshake YES for a 2 cent profit. Didn't by NO.
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Oct 20, 2016 01:42
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What's the deal with NE-2? It is rated as safe Trump in the RCP average (based on one poll from what I can tell) but a tossup in PredictIT. Seems like the safest way to double your money right now. https://www.predictit.org/Market/2402/Which-party-will-win-the-electoral-vote-from-Nebraska
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Oct 26, 2016 17:30
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Abel Wingnut posted:johnson and stein will not break 2.5%. they totaled like 1.25% last time. i agree they'll see an uptick, but no way is it significant, especially given the 'horserace' narrative and how awful johnson has done this cycle. mcmullin might get 35% in one state. I don't have anything in that market, but what makes you so confident that they won't break 5% together? Johnson is likely to do that by himself. If Stein gets 3% and McMuffin and various weird write ins and weird options get an additional 2% then we are looking at Trump and Hillary splitting the remaining 90. Lots of folks live in uncompetitive states and don't like either one. 10% voting other is very reasonable
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Nov 6, 2016 23:16
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Uhhh, fair warning: somebody has been posting child porn in the comments of Predictit with multiple accounts, so if you enjoy harassing Trump supporters, or if you are just checking markets, you might want to be careful. What they have is extremely rudimentary. When the Billy Bush video came out I tried to write "Grab her by the pussy" in a comment and it got rejected. But child porn? How dumb do you have to be? In order to be on there don't they have to know your real name, your real bank/credit card number, your social security number?
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Nov 7, 2016 07:24
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If you want to get back some of your losses Pennsylvania going Democrat can be bought for 40 cents.
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Nov 9, 2016 05:58
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Grizzled Patriarch posted:All those insane bastards gambling months of rent and food on Trump are going to be rich. What a world. If they have 401K's they will lose way more than they made on there. Viking_Helmet posted:I'm done horse taking for tonight, nothing makes sense. PA is leaning Trump, where's the Clinton support? Pittsburgh is only 25% reported, it should flip back. Crap. It just came in and didn't change anything
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Nov 9, 2016 06:15
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Dogwood Fleet posted:What is even safe anymore... Speaking of safe, why is this not priced at NO 99? Are the trumpeters so cocky that they think there is a trove of uncounted white southerners who will swing the popular vote back to them?
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Nov 16, 2016 16:45
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Vox Nihili posted:Hope no one listened to my input on this. I didn't have any shares myself. I found your original argument compelling enough to buy 33 shares that she wouldn't be pardoned. That said, I cannot comprehend the suffering that Chelsea Manning has suffered over the last decade and I applaud Obama for showing mercy and compassion. I hope this is the beginning of a path towards peace and healing for her. I am happy happy to have lost this $20 and the only thing that makes this bittersweet is this is the 10000th reminder that we are trading in a leader of integrity and vision, a protector of the environment and of the weak and powerless, a man of honor and morality who was a public servant in the best way imaginable for one that promises darkness, division, and corruption.
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Jan 18, 2017 22:12
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