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-Troika- posted:I wonder how long it's going to be before Maduro decides to take a page from Assad's book and set the military directly on the opposition. Triggering a US invasion doesn't sound like a very good idea.
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Nov 27, 2015 17:23
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M. Discordia posted:Venezuela's murder rate just from "the government doesn't care about its basic functions / PSUV gangs are allowed to rampage with impunity" is currently about 50% of what Iraq's was at the height of the U.S. occupation's collaboration with Shia death squads. It really can only get so much worse before you have all the negative aspects of a foreign military intervention without any of the possible light at the end of the tunnel. I meant it wouldn't be a good idea for Maduro to give the US sufficient cause to invade or convince the military to overthrow him. I do think his removal would benefit Venezuela, but there's a limit to how brazen he can be in cracking down on the opposition if he doesn't want to end up dead or in prison.
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Nov 28, 2015 03:20
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Why not Cuba?
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Dec 9, 2015 03:55
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M. Discordia posted:The USSR and the PRI and the Sandinistas fell and they all had a lot more competence at keeping dissent out of the public eye. Eventually the Venezuelan people will Kill All Communists, there are no perpetual dictatorships. I have bad news for you.
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Feb 23, 2016 02:35
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I'd be a terrible dictator, because if I were ruling Venezuela I'd be too ashamed to even continue the farce at this point. It's really astonishing to me that there isn't more rioting to force an end to this awful stagnation. As an outsider, it's really depressing to watch a once functioning country slide into failed state status.
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Apr 23, 2016 16:07
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Gorau posted:So here's a question: if the PSUV was turfed tomorrow, is it actually possible to fix Venezuela in the short or medium term? The flight of the middle class and all its associated human capital as well as the degradation of productive capital over the last decade make it seem to me that even if you had proper governance, there is no guarantee that Venezuela would bounce back any time soon. From the outside, it looks like the damage that has been done to Venezuela will linger and be felt for at least a generation, if not longer. Venezuela's probably going to be feeling a fair bit of pain for quite a while even with a leadership change, yeah. There will definitely be a benefit to better leadership, but a lot of that will be in not continuing to make things worse and seeing incremental improvements rather than suddenly everything being great, especially if oil stays cheap. I'm not an expert on Venezuela or anything, but the history of other countries suggests to me that the worse the current crisis gets, the more likely the next leaders will try to coast by on not being quite as bad as the other guys while probably partaking in a decent amount of corruption themselves and/or turning to infighting as soon as the leadership they unified to oppose is gone. The worst case scenario is that today's opposition ends up holding the bag for the disaster they're going to inherit, and that nostalgia for the current regime (probably not Maduro so much as Chavez) ends up paving the way for round 2 later on, in the same way that the disaster of the Yeltsin years in Russia promoted Soviet nostalgia and paved the way for Putin. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Apr 23, 2016 |
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Apr 23, 2016 20:32
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Chuck Boone posted:The Tribunal Supremo de Justicia [Supreme Court] issued another ruling today, this one dealing with the matter of the constitutional amendment. The ruling on term lengths is one of the few rulings I can actually understand, since I think if he'd used a constitutional amendment before the last election to increase his term to eight years that would have been bullshit too (this is why Putin went through the pretense of being prime minister under Medvedev instead of just altering the constitution while he was president in Russia). I don't know if this actually makes sense in terms of Venezuelan constitutional law, and as a practical matter it would really have been a good opportunity for Maduro to bow out at least a little gracefully instead of continuing to destroy his country for years, but ex post facto laws aren't great as a rule. Of course neither are coups or popular revolutions, and those are probably the alternatives at this point, so again I'm not saying as a practical matter that this is a good thing at all. Allowing the referendum would be the best option, of course. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Apr 25, 2016 |
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Apr 25, 2016 22:53
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Chuck Boone posted:You make really good points, and I agree with you in principle with the caveat that in the Venezuelan context, the situation gets a lot murkier. I completely agree with all of that. The Supreme Court is obviously out of control, and the PSUV doesn't seem to be making much effort to even maintain the pretense that they're governing legitimately anymore. It really seems like a 'so what are you going to do about it?' situation at this point, which is really sad since the opposition has made extensive good faith efforts to do things the right way (or, in the case of this amendment, as close to a right way as possible while exhausting all plausible alternatives). The fact that this particular amendment may have been questionable doesn't take away from the reality that barring all legal avenues of change in the Venezuelan political system leaves only extra-legal options, which is a tragedy for the country. As an outsider, it's really sad to watch, and I can really only hope that the continually worsening situation reported in this thread shames some of the elites supporting the PSUV to withdraw that support and ideally force an end to this nightmare without bloodshed.
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Apr 26, 2016 01:49
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M. Discordia posted:There is a point at which complying with the illegitimate orders of the anti-democratic occupation government of Venezuela becomes collaboration. The elected legislature needs to have the courage to follow through on its mandate. It does seem like at some point the legislature has to poo poo or get off the pot in terms of whether they'll continue to allow the president and courts to invalidate their mandate and destroy the country. Maybe they know they'd lose in any conflict right now and that's why they're playing along, and there's always the danger that joining the PSUV in undermining the institutions of government will only weaken them for the future, but the current situation seems bad enough that some risks may be worth taking and they should consider asking for help from the people to implement their will. Of course that's easy for me to say from my safe location in the US, and I'm not trying to suggest I personally would have the bravery to rush barricades and put myself in danger, so I fully understand why the legislators and people of Venezuela in general may prefer caution. I know I just said undermining the institutions of government is a dangerous game, but it would be really great if a Latin American country would take the opportunity one of these days to switch to a less presidential system after a major change in power. Obviously the new government usually has incentives to utilize that power once they have it, but presidential systems (arguably the worst American export) have proven to be particularly prone to this sort of takeover by strongmen pretty much everywhere outside of the US (so far), so setting some precedent for moving away from that model might be a good thing if possible.
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Apr 27, 2016 00:38
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The Lone Badger posted:What can they do? Maduro has the courts and the military. The only next step is actual violent revolution, which the Council can't call for openly. I'm sure they know what they're doing better than I do, so I'm not trying to play armchair general. It just seems like the situation with bread lines and poo poo is about as ripe for a revolution (or at least making clear that the people are behind you if it does turn into a street fight) as you can get. Surely even members of the military have families who are suffering from a lack of basic goods and services by now?
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Apr 27, 2016 01:30
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I think the US wants its fingerprints off regime change in Venezuela as much as possible since we're trying to recover our reputation in the region and blew it with the coup attempt against Chavez when Bush was President, but open warfare in the streets would definitely provoke some significant form of US involvement. If nothing else, Venezuela's too important as an oil producer to allow it to become Syria.
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May 3, 2016 02:17
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wdarkk posted:I'm pretty sure that's not going to work out how you think it will. Venezuela's neighbors have been pretty complacent about watching the country turn into a corrupt shithole, but I feel like the military showing up to arrest the legislature and attack protesters might wake them up. Provoking conflict could make things get a lot worse, but at some point the opposition has to weigh the costs of inaction as the country slowly starves as well. Given his disregard for the result of the parliamentary election, what makes anyone think Maduro would respect the result of a recall or presidential election if things progress to that point? Like I've said before, I think the people of Venezuela are the only ones who can decide when it's time to stand up to their leadership, but from the outside it looks like the opposition is just letting themselves be pushed aside after their big victory.
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May 5, 2016 20:53
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So this doesn't sound great. https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/728667376275886081
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May 6, 2016 20:39
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/17/opinion/venezuelas-downward-spiral.html?ref=americas&_r=0 Holy poo poo, more people were murdered in the first three months of the year in Venezuela than the numbers of civilians killed in Afghanistan in 2015.
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May 17, 2016 18:32
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The best case scenario is oil skyrocketing again and making all the problems magically disappear.
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May 18, 2016 15:58
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JohnGalt posted:This isnt the best case scenario either because another crash would be just around the corner. Obviously dependence on oil is a massive part of the problem to start with, and history shows that expecting the next government to use the revenue wisely if oil profits start coming in again is unlikely, but some level of increased oil revenue is pretty much the only chance of getting out of the current crisis that doesn't involve waiting a generation, so it's still probably the best case scenario.
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May 18, 2016 16:33
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Chuck Boone posted:Why couldn't he admit that he didn't know who they were, but that from all reasonable observation it was likely that the reporter's theory was right? Besides, the protests were overwhelmingly peaceful. It's actually impressive that there wasn't more violence. No sense in giving the government even a bit more justification to crack down on future protests unless you're willing to actually take the fight to the streets, and there's no sign that the opposition is ready for that.
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May 19, 2016 04:07
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Krispy Kareem posted:I think we are underestimating how bloodthirsty people get after enough babies die. It's not like you can skirt responsibility when the central government controls everything. Or when you go on TV saying your medical care is second best in the world. The problem is that while I personally think what they deserve is pretty clear if they continue to block the democratic process and destroy the country they're running, the result that's best for the country as it tries to rebuild probably requires something short of that. International recognition of the legitimacy of and sympathy for the new government are probably going to be important going forward, as will unity among the people themselves. That doesn't mean pretending nothing happened, but extensive efforts to settle scores could easily instill a new brand of terror-based politics instead of allowing the country to move forward.
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May 22, 2016 02:05
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I really wish I understood how a country could build a culture of institutional legitimacy and public service to combat corruption, because it seems like it's much easier to corrupt institutions than to fix them--even the US and Western Europe are struggling to maintain public faith in their governments these days. Maduro's doing an unbelievably thorough job of destroying every bit of legitimacy of his office, the courts and the power of the legislature, so while the transition of power when he leaves will allow an opportunity to start fresh in a sense, he's set the bar so low that it's easy to imagine a deep level of corruption remaining. This goes double if the price of oil does increase again, because resource wealth enables fantastic amounts of corruption.
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May 22, 2016 14:38
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Colombia would be backed by the US military in any conceivable conflict initiated by Venezuela, so if there's a dick waving contest I think Uncle Sam wins that one pretty easily. Venezuela's military has to know that though, so Maduro would probably be overthrown before it came to that.
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May 23, 2016 22:48
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Civil war is a lot more likely in countries with bigger ethnic or religious divides, so I think the risk of sparking a civil war by bringing the criminals in the current government to justice is overstated. The bigger concern is preventing the new government from also becoming dictatorial.
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Jun 1, 2016 15:10
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fnox posted:If the opposition actually realized that they DO have popular support on this matter they would stick to their guns. They know that there's people watching Venezuela now and that Maduro's only card left is martial law. Take the judicial and electoral powers off them, they'll give in within a month. I'm not normally an "accelerationist" at all, but I agree with this. If the legislature trying to enact its legitimate mandate forces the regime to unmask itself in front of the world, maybe that's worth the short-term consequences since the long-term damage they're doing to the country may not end otherwise.
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Jun 4, 2016 19:09
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Dapper_Swindler posted:well what are the people supposed to do at this point. any rebellion/revolution will probably be crushed since they would have no military backing. At least trying and failing would force the dictator to remove his mask and might shame the OAS into doing something. It's hard to throw away your personal safety and even the illusion that there might be a peaceful transition for a really good chance at losing in the short term though.
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Sep 1, 2016 21:17
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Dapper_Swindler posted:maybe but i doubt it. Even if the PSUV started firing into crowds and killing hundreds, i doubt much would be done apart for maybe some sanctions. plus i am sure the PSUV can find enough useful idiots and tankies to defend them on the world stage and in the OAS. I still think the US might start paying attention to what's going on in our own back yard after the election, but the days of unilateral cowboy imperialism in Latin America are probably dead, so any pressure would require buy-in from Venezuela's neighbors. That might not mean much in a status quo scenario, but I don't think Maduro would last very long if he went full Assad. The military may be loyal right now, but there aren't any major sectarian or ethnic divisions for Maduro to exploit in order to assure they'll stick with him to the bitter end. I just don't see why the military would remain unified around him once the order came to fire on the people, especially if the international community starts to wake up to what's going on there.
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Sep 1, 2016 21:41
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Would oil going up again save the PSUV/Venezuela at this point, or is the death spiral too locked in and too many future profits tied up in debt for a sudden injection of cash to fix?
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Sep 6, 2016 00:15
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Whenever this thread goes quiet for a few days I start wondering if the internet went out or if everyone just starved. I guess the most likely explanation is just that nothing's changing and the opposition isn't giving anyone any reason to believe it will.
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Sep 13, 2016 19:41
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Between this and the recent court decision saying the legislature doesn't have to approve the budget anymore, it doesn't seem like there's much of an excuse not to invoke it at this point. I still think some of the onus is on the opposition to stand up and declare Maduro the tyrant that he is if they want the rest of the region to agree though.
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Oct 21, 2016 04:43
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caberham posted:Is everything going to change dramatically within a month though? At some point the military's going to have to decide if they want to continue supporting a failing regime that's becoming an international pariah as the country starves. Without ethnic or religious divisions to divide the military from the people, why would they fire on their hungry countrymen if/when they rise up?
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Oct 23, 2016 16:22
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Jerry Cotton posted:Because they're military? It's not exactly uncommon elsewhere so why should it not happen in Venezuela? Mostly because it's difficult for me to imagine this government inspiring loyalty. Venezuela was a functioning democratic country not that long ago, and the people, including those in the military can see how dramatically this government has failed. This isn't North Korea, where the people have been eating poo poo for decades, or even Cuba, which was a dictatorship before Castro. Venezuelans have known freedom, and have known a greater level of prosperity and freedom from hunger, so it's hard for me to imagine the rank and file in the military being enthusiastic about murdering their hungry countrymen. Maybe I'm wrong, but I hope not.
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Oct 24, 2016 00:12
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hypnorotic posted:If the Assemble really has lost all power MUD deputies should resign en masse. After that they can continue to call the government illegitimate, and begin agitating for regime change. Seems like calling for regime change as the assembly would be a stronger message than resigning. They're the legally elected representatives of the people, and should ask the people to enforce their mandate.
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Oct 24, 2016 23:04
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frankenfreak posted:I'm starting to wonder how much longer the military is going to tolerate Maduro and the PSUV. After all, they've pretty much already been handed the keys to the country... Ruling as an open military dictatorship in the Western hemisphere in 2016 probably wouldn't work out too well for them, especially with oil this cheap. Even the fig leaf of legitimacy that Maduro has is a lot more than the military would have without him. I could see a transitional presidency, but there would basically have to be a promise of elections at some point or Venezuela would become even more of a pariah than it already is.
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Oct 25, 2016 01:04
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Jerry Cotton posted:I'm sure a lot of people have been surprised by this. Usually as their last thoughts. (Yes I did remove a few words but I think we can both agree on it not really being important whether you get shot enthusiastically or not.) Joining a military organization is already a moral choice in and of itself. You might not be able to shoot an innocent person even after making that choice. Then again you might and quite many have. And once you get the ball rolling it's easy for others to jump on the bandwagon that the ball magically transformed into I guess. Most people don't sign up for the military in a democratic country free from ethnic or sectarian strife thinking that them means their own countrymen though. The military knows how hosed the country is, and knows the rest of the hemisphere except for Cuba would turn on their country dramatically if the government started massacring civilians in the streets. Maybe everyone up and down the chain would just follow orders, and obviously there's some risk involved for protesters, but forcing a decision one way or another is the most likely way to get their country back. Easy for me to say as I sit comfortably in the US, sure, but it's not like courageous protests against far more repressive regimes are unheard of.
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Oct 25, 2016 14:39
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El Hefe posted:They won't get anywhere near Miraflores maybe if they had gone there today unannounced but not after you give the government a weeks notice lol. How exactly do you propose they organize a mass protest without letting anyone know?
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Oct 26, 2016 19:26
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Maduro is obviously very unpopular now, but does that extend to Chavez in the eyes of most of the country, or is he still a popular figure who evades blame by virtue of dying before it got terrible?
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Oct 27, 2016 05:57
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El Hefe posted:Pussy opposition + no foreign country giving a poo poo what happens here = dictatorship for life
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Oct 27, 2016 20:44
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Polidoro posted:Actually it's because most neighboring countries have been bought by Venezuela. Look at Uruguay, Mujica's party has been pressuring his coalition to block an investigation on the dealings between Venezuela and Uruguay because they used a private company they own as an intermediary and they took around 5% of all business with Venezuela for absolutely no reason. They are also putting pressure against calling for action against Venezuela, why would that be?. There are politicians here trying to bring attention to Venezuela like Pablo Mieres but the last time he went there he tried to visit some prisoners and was invited to leave. Also his party has like 4% of the votes here so no one cares about what he says. Labradoodle posted:To be fair, while I hold no love for the opposition anymore, if they had cried dictatorship one or two years ago with democratic cards left in the deck, it would´ve been worse. Me and El Hefe and everyone still living here knew back then we were already in a dictatorship, but optics matter to the international community. Now, I don't believe that international pressure will magically save us, but I do hope that the less radical wing of Chavismo may be willing to negotiate to stay out of jail and throw turds like Maduro and Diosdado to the wolves when it becomes obvious we won't back down.
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Oct 28, 2016 02:31
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Phlegmish posted:The US treating Latin America as its personal back yard is what allowed demagogues such as Chavez to come to power in the first place. If they intervened, it would vindicate the chavistas and you're just setting yourself up for a new crop of left-wing populists a generation from now. I didn't mean a military intervention. The US is still by far the most influential country in the hemisphere though, and especially with Brazil caught up in its own disaster, uniquely qualified to lead an effort to isolate the Maduro regime and make clear to military figures that there's no upside to continuing along the path they're on. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think most of them actually want to turn their country into North Korea. This seems relevant. https://twitter.com/VenezuelaEcon/status/792086645801619456
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Oct 30, 2016 01:39
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 Yeah, that was definitely an unusual day, but it's been a brutal year anyway.
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Oct 30, 2016 03:16
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Accepting humanitarian aid would either be an admission that the US isn't completely evil and trying to destroy Venezuela, in which case they lose their scapegoat and start to lose control as having the aid cut off because they did something stupid would be a bigger disaster than not accepting it in the first place, or it would look like surrendering to the US even though it is evil and nefariously continuing its campaign of economic destruction by illegal dumping food or some poo poo, which would make the government look even weaker.
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Oct 30, 2016 05:42
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Wasn't this the pope's idea?
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Oct 31, 2016 15:21
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