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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Might as well toxx for Hillary since I'll be too busy organizing the anti-Trump resistance to post if she screws this thing up.

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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

A Winner is Jew posted:

Kinda disagree with you there since the more things she does the more it will piss off republicans, and if nothing else she's fueled by republican spite.

She was so eager to screw over Republicans that she backed the invasion of Iraq just so it would backfire in Bush's stupid face!!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Necc0 posted:

My thoughts exactly. I think we're looking at a very real possibility of the GOP being a permanent minority party until the southern strategy finally shrivels up and dies which could take a decade or more.

Pretty much every election people say this and the GOP has continued to pick up more and more seats over time.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Gyges posted:

The Republican Party is structured in such a way that they are pervasive throughout many states, especially in the South, but have an increasingly hard time with the Electoral College. This is double edged as it keeps them in power legislatively, but that continued success means that they are unable to fix their national level problems. If they continue to fail to course correct, they will eventually run into a wall on the legislative side, but that's not in the immediate future.

With a two party system there's always a possibility for the Republicans to take back the White House at some point. However their insistence on doubling down is making it a slimmer and slimmer chance. So they will continue on, with the question being whether a realignment happens before or after their inability to recruit new blood drives them the way of the Federalists and Whigs before them.

The real problem is their dominance at the state level. It isn't just in the south, it's like 2/3 of the drat country, and it's somehow been getting more common even as their policies get more extreme.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

computer parts posted:

Here are the states by who controls their legislature (purple = split, Nebraska is officially nonpartisan)



Now here is the 2012 Presidential results:



If you notice, the maps actually line up fairly well. The only areas that don't have at least *some* Democratic control is Florida, Virginia and some of the Great Lakes region. The issue then is not so much that the Republicans have domination at the state levels, but that there are a bunch of states that just don't vote Democratic at all.

Dude, those maps don't line up AT ALL. In fact it demonstrates exactly what I'm saying. Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire--all blue or swing states completely controlled by the GOP at the state level. Then there are dark blue states like Maine, Washington, NEW YORK, and Minnesota that are only split. The only "good" news here is split control of Iowa and Kentucky--but no outright Democratic control of a single reddish or even swing state! Republicans have an enormously outsized amount of power at the state level. Looking at this map juxtaposed with posts about the GOP "failing" makes my head spin. If anything the Democrats are failing. I am really unhappy with how the party has performed.

Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 20:03 on May 22, 2016

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Jonked posted:

You also have to remember that the state franchises of the Republican party are going to diverge somewhat from the national party. In Pennsylvania this takes the form of 'Pennsyltucky' Republicans being pretty right-wing and religious (You may remember Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District) while suburb and industrial town Republicans being still pretty hardline pro-business while more... "accepting" of homosexuality. You even had this playing out to an extreme extent in Indiana with Pence and the rest of the party. The lines are blurrier and less polarized the lower down you go.

edit: my point being you can still have a strong Republican party in Florida, while Florida being a blue state in the Presidential election. Florida might only vote for Florida Republicans.

The same is true with state-level Democrats. To compete in the South they frequently run anti-abortion blue dogs, etc.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

neonnoodle posted:

It's just making me :psyduck: that I'm actually, sincerely nostalgic for George loving Walker Bush.

OTOH, his actual actions caused the deaths of millions of Muslims, gave ISIS a home and a cause, and brought a new age of security hell to our dumb country.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
So let's say Hillary wins (probable) and Obama subsequently withdraws his Garland nomination. Assuming Obama holds off on another nomination until Clinton takes office, who does she select for the bench?

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Yoshifan823 posted:

A bunch of my friends are complaining about the AP calling the race tonight. One of them even said he was going to support Trump now that Bernie is done. The rest just repeated their hatred of Hillary.

Meanwhile, I train for my Clinton 2016 fellowship this weekend. :hellyeah:

It's really dumb of the AP to call the race tonight, especially when the decisive outcome is coming tomorrow. The Clinton campaign seemed upset, though not nearly as much as the Sanders people.

Sort of casts a pall over the whole primary tomorrow.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Yoshifan823 posted:

I mean, I agree that it was dumb of them, and I wish they had waited until tomorrow, but they're only confirming what everyone has known for a week.

If you genuinely think that Hillary isn't the presumptive nominee, then you either think Sanders is gonna get a blowout win tomorrow that puts him ahead in the delegate count, Sanders is going to convince enough super delegates to switch their votes to him that he has more delegates at the convention, or that Hillary is going to be indicted, which is basically saying that you hope you win the lottery. I don't think this helps the Clinton campaign any, certainly, but the end result isn't gonna change any.

I agree the whole thing is illusory, but that's been true for weeks. The media rush to MAKE THE CALL FIRST is maddening.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Today some D&D goon finally fulfilled their destiny.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

DemeaninDemon posted:

I wasn't around these parts when south park put out the douche v turd episode in 2004(?) so who knows!

Either way :abuela: owns gonna be the second best president in the last 50 years.

I don't think South Park invented the idea of voting for the lesser evil, though as libertarians its creators may think that they did.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

A Winner is Jew posted:

Invest with confidence friend. Kansas is now a battleground state for her.

Kansas.

Zogby reality is somehow even stranger than our own.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

celeron 300a posted:

For interested people: Hillary beat Bernie in California, 56 to 43%. It didn't help that I'm registered independent No Party Preference so I didn't have to vote either way. I hope Bernie pulls Hillary to the left a little more, but mainly I'm looking forward to :munch: while this all plays out.

No Party Preference voters were eligible to vote in the California Democratic Primary.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Clinton posted a +12 poll result today. Gary Johnson is still eating a misleadingly large share, but it's a brutal result for Trump regardless.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Slate Action posted:

No big deal, he can just refill his campaign coffers from his personal $10 billion fortune that totally isn't made up.

Well he has been paying for most of it himself so far, it's not like he's getting more than pocket change in donations. The fact that he's pissing away his fortune is an added bonus to this whole thing.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Gyges posted:

I'm down to only worrying about going too hard against Trump now when the RNC can still technically back out. Please keep at least one hand tied behind your back until July 21st. Then bury him in a shallow grave in the desert.


No, he's been paying himself the whole time. Everything has been run through Trump infrastructure which the campaign has been paying for. In addition to all the money from hats and poo poo that he's been totally not asking for at all. Probably about the only thing that isn't the Trump Campaign paying the Trump Organization for usages of equipment and personnel are the 5 people who are just campaign staff and some increased security costs prior to Secret Service protection.

If he were even half decent at fund raising he would have had all the Pauls and general campaign grifters crying tears of envy. Imagine a billion dollars being funneled through his organization.

Read the FEC filings. Most of the expenses are for campaign personnel, large venue rentals, and ads. Hes not getting any of that money back.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Reminder that Trump had $1.3m in the bank 20 days ago. He's probably sitting on a cool half million or so at this point. Looks like he's been "borrowing" less and less from himself over time, too, which might signal an unwillingness to sacrifice too much of his fortunate (or, hilariously, the end of his liquidity.)

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
I made a "no criminal charges will be filed" bet today, return is still pretty nice: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1792/Will-a-federal-criminal-charge-be-filed-against-Hillary-Clinton-in-2016#data

Lol @ indictment crew.

Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 21:58 on Jul 2, 2016

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

A Winner is Jew posted:

Obama won't withdraw the nomination, and I really doubt Clinton would either should he not get confirmed before she's sworn in since it confirm that picking him was purely about politics and not about putting forward a serious candidate.

That being said, RBG is 83 and Kennedy is 80 so Clinton will more than likely be replacing both of them in her first term, and Breyer who is 77 in her second with maybe Thomas who is 68 also being replaced.

Obama will withdraw the nomination and nominate someone else if it comes to that. He's not going to give the Republicans a handout after everything that's happened.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

zoux posted:

Obama isn't going to yank Garland's nom, he's not playing games with loving SCOTUS seats.

The only one playing games is the Republican Party. Obama should get the most out of the opening, not let them have a halfway-victory after all this poo poo.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

zoux posted:

So you aren't one of the ones who thinks that Obama deliberately picked a more centrist nominee to highlight the intransigence of the GOP? Because you seem to be implying that his first choice is a pawn.

I think his pick is an acceptable option for him, but he also chose Garland to demonstrate the Republicans' obstinacy.

It was definitely a centrist pick, anyway.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

zoux posted:

So you think he is playing games then.

I don't think that's "playing games." Garland was a legitimate nomination that also exacted a political toll on the GOP. It was a savvy move.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

This is the Clinton Toxx thread on the dedicated political comedy subforum, "C-SPAM", on the Something Awful Comedy Forums.

Actually, sir, this is a McDonald's drive-through.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Alucard Nacirema posted:

What makes you think she's going to appoint a more liberal judge? She'll probably appoint a centrist

She'll almost certainly appoint someone more liberal than Garland, who is a center-center-left choice. Bill appointed Breyer and Ginsburg in a more Republican era, for example.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Lightning Knight posted:

Real talk tho, hypothetically if she died or otherwise stopped being the nominee, do we all get auto banned or does it become a mulligan? :ohdear:

We will all die. First ITT, then IRL.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

OK, so final count up to where I mentioned this was a pattern:

15 basic "if Trump wins, X that means it won't matter" posts.

6 posts in this pattern making specific references to Trump setting up a fascist state.

9 posts in this pattern making specific references to post-apocalyptic science fiction.

This may be a bit inflated, but not by much. Al! was the first to do this, with a fascism reference post that was the fourth post in the thread. Kudos.

Fun fact: the posts have transitioned over time from fascism to nuclear/post-apocalyptic. Says something about how folks are viewing the stakes/what will happen with Trump.

You are now Thread Historian. Please keep a running tally.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

Nah, commenting on it distorts the phenomenon.

Good call. Keep a private tally and post it on November 7.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
The safest toxx was actually the no indictment toxx.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Instant Sunrise posted:

Honestly, Bernie bro's who went from supporting a far left candidate to a far right candidate confuse me and I want to understand what would make them go from far left to far right.

The folks you're describing aren't really Bernie Bros, they're mostly generic anti-status quo people who latched on to an outsider. A lot of them are quasi-libertarians who don't know an ounce of policy. The hardcore BBs are now either for Stein, write-in Bernie, Hillary because Bernie endorsed, some socialist alternative, or "gently caress this I'm not voting at all!"

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Also please dont (perma?)ban EngineerSean, he is a pillar of the PredictIt thread.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Nice meltdown tho, lol.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

What is this toxxing rulechange? I see discussion of it, but can't find the actual post, in the op, in the subforum rules, anywhere.

The Trumplings are being put to the stake unless they confess their sins.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Florida, lmao, that's the least of our loving problems!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

A Winner is Jew posted:

:lol:

Also, :rip: this account

hes right, you know.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
1) America sucks
2) Hillary is mostly good
3) Hillary does not appeal very well to the average American

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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Godinster posted:

hahahahahahahhahahah

Please note the Average American here. This is the problem.

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