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Are the exit polls we are relying on for demographic info and analysis about Trump voters, the same ones that show Hillary winning on election day? How do we know all this analysis is based on data any better than the pre-election polling?
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Nov 20, 2016 19:05
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Kilroy posted:It doesn't matter. They're all going to be given jobs working for companies that got the inside track in the Trump admin, building toll roads all over the loving place. The ones that don't get that will be put to work building a loving wall. Nevermind that the wall will be the greatest monument to the broken window fallacy ever constructed - the point is that in so doing the short-term positive effects of building useless infrastructure no one needs will allow them to further cement their power in 2018, maybe even enough that they can just start amending the Constitution to fit their needs. By the time the masses realize they've been had it won't matter because anyone who mentions the fact of it will be shot. So you can say "oh we should have paid attention" and I guess we should have, but we're past the point of no return now and the part of the electorate that wanted to burn the world because they couldn't or wouldn't fit into it, has got their wish. Pessimism of the intellect but optimism of the will, dude. It's their game to lose now but that doesn't mean they won't drop the ball or trip over their own feet. Trump is not competent and is quite likely to screw up very badly.
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Nov 20, 2016 19:09
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porfiria posted:Yeah I've been a bit concerned about this as well. Are there any sources other than exit polls for stuff like demographic breakdowns, and if not do we have reason to think they're reliable (both in general and compared to 2012)? Yeah, that's the issue. I see a lot of people writing things that sound good and confirm various pre existing narratives but I haven't seen much if anything that was based on solid data, and I still haven't seen a decent explanation for why all the polls -- both before hand and day-of exit polls -- got the race so badly wrong.
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Nov 20, 2016 19:21
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I like this analysis here: http://www.ginandtacos.com/2016/11/20/the-next-best-thing/ There is no real answer to the problem of the rust belt, other than pointing fingers. What happened was the Democrats stopped pointing fingers at Capital, so a fascist stepped in to point fingers at brown people and liberals. Fascism succeeds when socialism fails.
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Nov 21, 2016 18:20
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NAFTA was a Republican idea originally. Electing a Republican because you're mad Clinton adopted a Republican proposal isn't exactly coherent.
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Nov 21, 2016 18:26
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NewForumSoftware posted:And? I didn't elect a Republican, Trump voters did. In that paragraph he isn't talking about you, he's talking about Trump voters. And why can't they? Bernie did.
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Nov 21, 2016 18:32
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NewForumSoftware posted:
This is a really stupid argument in a world where Trump won. Bernie is currently the politician with the highest personal approval ratings in the entire country, and the Clinton wing that blocked him is utterly destroyed.
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Nov 21, 2016 18:41
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NewForumSoftware posted:The "Clinton wing" you're talking about is the Democratic party and leadership fyi. There's no such thing. "The leadership" doesn't exist as an abstract entity, no more than "Republican party machinery" who were supposed to stop Trump. If we're talking elected office holders and party chairpeople, Bernie is getting his pick installed as the new DNC chair.
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Nov 21, 2016 18:47
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Note the part where it dissolved in 2011
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Nov 21, 2016 18:50
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Vladimir Putin posted:Wasn't her voting record like 95% similar to Sanders? That statistic only has so much meaning when 90% of votes are "repeal Obamacare y/n" over again.
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Nov 23, 2016 03:00
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BarbarianElephant posted:Not sure what else links the Socialist man of the people Bernie Sanders and the hardline Libertarian Gary Johnson. You literally could not get further politically apart unless you had Hitler and Stalin in the same room. I'm not talking conscious misogyny. Just a subtle discomfort with Hillary Clinton and Jill Stein that I found notable at the time. They're both seen as anti Establishment and, cruciallly, honest people who say precisely what they think, a mantle neither Hillary not Trump could claim.
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Dec 2, 2016 18:38
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I hate myself for reposting a "Tweet storm" but this guy seems like he's onto something: https://t.co/QJGhCYRlb9 Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Dec 3, 2016 |
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Dec 3, 2016 17:58
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JeffersonClay posted:https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/805058044262567936 He's talking about perceptions there not actuality. It matters that things like GMI are *seen* as lacking dignity. We have to either change that perception or find a way around it.
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Dec 3, 2016 19:29
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farraday posted:No he isn't. Well, ok, but I dont think that's his main point. I saw the narrative he was telling as pretty simple; 1) Democrats have become the party of financial monopoly power (just like the Republican s in a different way) 2) voters want *anything else* because they know the consensus is screwing them 3) Trump was disliked but he wasn't establishment and that was the best available option. I think the obvious conclusion to draw from that narrative is that credible progressives are the answer. We need candidates with charisma and who are focused on economic justice. Obama's greatest mistake was the decision not to prosecute bankers after 2008. You can't be a progressive without busting trusts.
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Dec 3, 2016 19:53
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A Buttery Pastry posted:It's an important difference. Social democracy is a betrayal of the working class, a stalling tactic while capitalism regains its strength. Are you literally wearing a red diaper right now Social democracy is the furthest left it is realistically possible to conceive of pushing American democracy in our lifetimes. (See: Bernie, FDR, Scandinavia.) If you're rejecting it in favor of Full Communism Now you're not engaging with reality.
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Dec 3, 2016 20:09
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Business Gorillas posted:while you were tripping over yourself to make this own, you forgot that his idea was "new deal capitalism just exported the misery" We can export the misery to robots now so we good in that front
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Dec 3, 2016 21:28
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Cerebral Bore posted:At this point conventional wisdom about what's politically possible and what's not seems kinda suspect. As an American looking across the pond at Scandinavia all of these theoretical critiques of social democracy seem like the ultimate in pointless left wing navel gazing. I honestly don't give a poo poo about your abstract theories. I want health care and education and I can look at our system, recognize it isn't working, and look at the Scandinavian system and recognize that it is. Like, seriously. Im sick of explaining to people why they're going to die because they can't get health care coverage.
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Dec 3, 2016 21:45
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A Buttery Pastry posted:It's not really an abstract theory when you live in that system though, and see both the right and "the left" continously chipping away at or tearing great big chunks out of the system. Yes, it's better than what America has right now, but that's only because the project to tear it all down hasn't been completed. Like, the government is already suggesting turning our student allowance system into a student loan system, when two decades ago you had an unlimited student allowance system. Healthcare is likewise being pushed to be more like the American system. The fight never stops but that doesn't mean y'all aren't demonstrably better off than we are in every way. I mean say what you will about right wing dismantling things but America is like king of that right now. To an American ear or at least to this particular American ear this critique sounds like telling someone in a burning house "well, see, we could call the fire department, but did you know even if you put out this fire, your house could still burn down in future? If you aren't just living in an open field you might as well give up." Kilroy posted:And if you try to sell what the Scandinavians have / had and you can't because they don't want that, and instead they vote in Cheeto Benito because it's the only other option they've got, where does that leave you? The people do actually want that though. Right now Bernie Sanders has the highest overall favorability rating of any American politician, period. And it isn't even close. Where it leaves us is that fascist movements succeed when socialist movements fail. The way to drive out fascism politically (as opposed to militarily) is with socialism and socialist policies.
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Dec 3, 2016 22:37
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A Buttery Pastry posted:while letting the pyromaniac continue to live under your roof. Unfortunately this isn't Rimworld and I can't put all the pyromaniacs up against a wall. There are only so many options short of violent revolution (which the regressive and right wing elements would win anyway). Full Communism Now is not realistically on the table, unless your name is General Mattis and you've decided to stage a coup on January 17th. That said I think it's absurd that you believe any ideological system or indeed any system of government at all could last 30 years without being fought for. Hegel isn't real, there's no end-state, all life is struggle of all against all. Even if you did institute Full Communism Now, in thirty years people would be trying to stage fascist coups to take over. Democracy is the best system we have because it's the only one that allows for that process of perpetual change and prevents that process from repeatedly devolving into violence. Social Democracy is the best provably workable, with proven positive utilitarian results system any modern government has managed to implement. Maybe it is absurd but it works. Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Dec 3, 2016 |
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Dec 3, 2016 22:48
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Peven Stan posted:Not having a job was illegal but everyone was also entitled to one. With no social safety net and no local economy it's kinda hard for entrepreneurship to happen. They call it a death spiral for a reason. It's not culture, it's economics.
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Dec 5, 2016 18:38
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Paradoxish posted:US entrepreneurship is actually unusually low anyway, so this isn't unique to the Rust Belt. People aren't going out and starting new businesses in general. It's not a good thing. Right. Imho it's because we have no social safety net.
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Dec 5, 2016 19:10
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JeffersonClay posted:. Bernie won the Michigan primary in a surprise landslide that overturned expectations from polling. This was not out of nowhere.
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Dec 5, 2016 21:45
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Business Gorillas posted:All I'm really saying is that a hammer had to smack the Dems in the loving head to even consider changing their procedure of just assuming everyone would vote for them. The absolute shellacking an orange golem gave the Most Qualified Candidate to Ever Candidate is that hammer. If Pelosi 's comments are any indication the message still hasn't sunk in.
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Dec 5, 2016 22:38
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Business Gorillas posted:yeah i don't see the republicans surviving when their only contributions for a generation are Bush Jr, the Tea Party, and Trump in 2020. the only way they stay in power is if that NC gerrymandering case is spiked Right now is probably not a good time to predict the death of the Republican party. They're more likely to cement their power for a generation with legal barriers.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:22
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Business Gorillas posted:i agree but i'd like at least an ounce of hope via that NC case causing those districts getting struck down before i resign myself to the dark abyss of despair that awaits all leftists for the next 4 years The reason that the Greek myth of Pandora's Box tells that Hope was the last secret held snapped shut within the box is that hope is a deceit and a torment. That's the whole point of the story.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:52
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HannibalBarca posted:if faitheless electors overturn the election results (they will not), the potential institutional damage done by Trump will be child's play by comparison. I'm not so sure. There would be a lot of malheur type incidents but the main thing is the replacement would be functionally a four-year lame duck and that's . . .ok. I mean I don't think it will happen but I also don't think it's the end of the world. I mean, letter of the constitution, an elector refusing to vote for Trump is doing precisely their constitutional job, it's in Federalist 68.
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Dec 6, 2016 14:34
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Xander77 posted:Can someone explain to me what "run the country like a business" actually means for people who espouse it? I'm honestly baffled - the internet gives me plenty of hot takes on how terrible of an idea that is (thanks, more than well aware) but very little from the people who actually support it. Don't expect Trump's policy proposals to make coherent sense. It's emotion, not reason. Business good gubmint bad
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Dec 6, 2016 14:36
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Let me clarify: I'm presuming that the electors / House put in another Republican, someone like Kasich. I think a lot of people would be very upset yes and we'd get Malheurs but even most Republicans didn't actually like or want Trump.
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Dec 6, 2016 15:18
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Lightning Knight posted:I feel like every American politics thread needs a PSA at the top of every page for the next eight years: Thank you for this post because I honestly hadn't caught on to that distinction.
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Dec 6, 2016 19:19
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PT6A posted:I pointed out the "globalist" and "coastal elite" thing in another thread, and people attacked me for being paranoid and mean to the WWC. This is actually a real problem. Even Matt Taibbi has been called anti Semitic just for criticizing Goldman Sachs. How does one critique the exploitative financial class while avoiding anti-Semitic connotations?
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Dec 6, 2016 22:02
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Crowsbeak posted:Well if that's what you believe than why not make a major plank for democrats be PUNISH THE FINANCIAL ELITES. Also being that I keep in touch with the people I use to work with before I realized what I wanted to do as a career. I can say those in the service industry, really really hate the financial elites. Plus they also hate prickish liberals, and there are enough liberals who will whine about bankers getting attacked so they will turn out for that to. It is, for the Sanders / Warren wing. It's definitely the way to go. The problem is most of the party is beholden to them. It's really hard to fund an anti-oligarchs campaign in an oligarchy.
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Dec 7, 2016 00:31
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Crowsbeak posted:Yeah we really need to purify the party. Down to which five sufficiently jacobinesque folks? We just need sufficiently militant leadership.
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Dec 7, 2016 00:36
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kaynorr posted:Militant in what sense? I think you're right, but would like to see this expanded upon. In the sense that Bernie was or Elizabeth Warren is. No bullshit, put bankers in jail, I WILL FIGHT FOR YOU. No more nice polite Democrats.
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Dec 7, 2016 02:32
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The problem with relying on exit poll data is it definitionally excludes those who were not motivated to vote.
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Dec 7, 2016 20:44
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Higsian posted:This leads to the question: why was Hillary nominated? Why did the whole party apparatus decide to run the worst candidate possible? I know some people only realised she was terrible in hindsight, but plenty of people knew it long before the election results came in. Why were so many people either blind or indifferent to her terribleness? The party establishment had been married to her since 2008 and still thought their own farts smelled like rosebuds.
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Dec 7, 2016 23:58
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The problem with picking the best con man is that the cob man may be cobbing you. We need a charismatic candidate which is not the same thing. Bernie has charisma but is not a con artist. What we really need is a Trudeau.
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Dec 8, 2016 00:33
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Business Gorillas posted:Consider that for a steel or a coal worker, Clinton saying "your job isn't viable anymore, sorry" and "the economy is just fine and I'm gonna be more of the same" makes it a choice between your livelihood getting destroyed or the chaos option. Most sat at home but some voted for chaos. This isn't a hard concept to understand This was Ken Bone's exact reasoning if you recall. He felt Trump was better for him personally (and he worked at a fossil fuel plant, so he was right) whereas Clinton was better for everyone else.
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Dec 8, 2016 01:01
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deadly_pudding posted:Isn't there like a significant shortage of truckers? That's gotta be at least as terrible for your body as coal mining. Tesla and Google are going to have that problem fixed by the next presidential election, and not in a good way.
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Dec 8, 2016 20:21
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theflyingorc posted:Nnnnnnnnnnnnope. We're not anywhere close to driverless autonomous trucking. There's still going to be a dude sitting in the cab for a good number of years, he just won't be actually driving. Won't be paid the same either.
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Dec 8, 2016 20:25
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Business Gorillas posted:The emphasis on politeness and decorum is based on the fact that for the past 40 years both parties believed in the same thing. Does Huey Long count?
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Dec 8, 2016 20:26
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