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What regions belong in the Pacific Northwest?
Alaska, US
British Columbia, CA
Washington, US
Oregon, US
Idaho, US
Montana, US
Wyoming, US
California, US (MODS PLEASE BAN ANYONE VOTING FOR THIS OPTION TIA)
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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Chadderbox posted:

It seems like a better idea would be to keep white supremacists away from the protest, but what do I know?

Yeah, but I doubt the city is going to pull the PPB from the area.

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Ardennes
May 12, 2002
There is also the question of why the other spaces in the district (like the parking lots) could be used for housing while the Showbox itself is preserved.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 13:55 on Aug 11, 2018

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Yeah, raising class sizes seems like it is pretty much robing Peter to pay Paul. (Not that Oregon schools are better...hell they are arguably worse.)

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

therobit posted:

I don't think you could argue that Oregon schools are better than Washington schools on any metric. Teacher salaries, class sizes, and graduation rates are all a lot worse. That's why we are are ranked 48th in the nation in high school graduation rates and not a whole lot better on any other metric. US News and World Report put Oregon at 33rd for education , and Washington at#6. IMO the difference is funding and barriers to entry for new teachers. If you don't have 5 years working under another state's license, then you have to have a master's degree in education to get licensed in Oregon.

I don't know if lowering requirements for teachers would help that much though considering restrictions on budget sizes, and how funding is allocated in Oregon. Obviously, the state needs more teachers per student but there is a heavy reclutance due to the state of PERS and overall a hostile attitude toward taxes.

Also, culturally speaking, many Oregonians, especially from rural countieshave a fairly indifferent attitude toward education as a whole. It is one of many cultural rifts in the state. (That said, even people from larger towns/Portland often really don't care either way.)

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Part of the issue is that Trimet simply has limited tax revenue going to it period, and from early on the MAX wasn't designed to have gates.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

RuanGacho posted:

New South Wales in Australia just uses NFC cards for combined Bus/Ferry/Train, there's no reason the PNW couldn't do the same as we build our socialist robo-utopia.

HOP uses both a card and NFC on phones, they are trying to do away with paper tickets. I usually shy away from using my phone, if my battery decharges, I lose my ticket.

As for raising taxes, this is Oregon. This is a state so cheap it barely has mental health facilities and class sizes are around 48-49th in the country.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
So yeah, there has been a mass die-off of Brewpubs/restaurants in Portland recently.

Following Bridgeport, Lompoc just went under along with Henry's, and has Laurelwood closed its Sellwood location. The Rock-bottom in Downtown Portland also went out. There are probably more closures coming. Part of it is probably just the sautration of craft breweries in Portland, and the fact, leases have become unmanagably expensive. That said, we will see it is the first tremors of a recession.

Residential rental prices have largely flatlined but are still punishing Also, if a recession is coming, I could see Portland being pretty hard hit considering how reliant the economy is on hospitality and services.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Solkanar512 posted:

Are these locations being filled with other businesses? How do you know if it's regular churn or not?

It has all happened recently, in the space of a month, but that said I have slowly been noticing more spaces staying vacant.

I know Laurelwood at least straight out said they couldn't stay in business because their lease was eating them alive. Lompoc, Bridgeport (which was earlier this year), and the company that was running Henry's (and also Stanford's) both went into bankruptcy. I assume Rock-bottom was just cutting their loses.

It seems stronger than a normal churn to me.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
I wouldn’t be surprised, like I said, I think Portland has a cyclical economy with marginal wages considering its cost of living. Commercial rents have climbed with the rest of the property bubble in Portland but there may not be the retail sales but them sustainable.

Btw, most of those places did a pretty steady business from my experience, and I wouldn’t be surprised if other bars and restaurants would be caught in a similar situation.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
I like you can see the upper middle class enclave north of the I 84 in the map.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

IM DAY DAY IRL posted:

raiford did not campaign, promote, or provide any material support for the write-in initiative but go off i guess

Someone did though, there were postings on telephone poles across Portland.

When I say them, I knew that Wheeler would probably get re-elected, just enough.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
To be fair, it doesn't seem any of the politicians running seems to care about the fact that the quality of living in Portland has dived right into the toilet.

Personally, I don't know if Iannarone was ready for prime time, but the fact that it doesn't seem like the Portland left has any coordination seems to be a bit of a problem.

It doesn't help that metro put all of its in one basket for a terribly written proposition and now any progress for infrastructure will be stall for a good decade.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The issue with dining-in/bars is outdoor seating really isn't going to be possible in the NW to March/April, but the PPP program is starting to run out which means a bunch of businesses which likely have nearly zero income until this wave is over (and usually winter businesses is lower anyway). It is why Oregon is pretty much banning private gatherings but keeping the restaurants/bars open for business. It isn't going to work though.

That said, Oregon was still one of the better states, but it is clear there were choices that were made that would allow the virus to continue to persist until the conditions were right again (especially in institutions like nursing homes/prisons/food processing) and dining/bars allowed it to accelerate. Everyone knew months ago there would be a large autumn wave, but generally it was allowed to pass because it would mean a loss of business.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Nov 7, 2020

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

poo poo POST MALONE posted:

I walked by a packed bar today and could not understand it. A plate of appz and a beer doesn't magically make it okay to sit around in recirculated air with strangers.

Sometimes a business needs a bit of human sacrifice...

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

punk rebel ecks posted:

Oregon stays winning.

Eh, Oregon income taxes are nearly a flat tax, it isn't as bad as a sales tax but not by much.

Also, Salem is extremely dysfunctional and I think a big part of the reason Oregon did fairly well through the pandemic until now is more do to its population than the state government.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Relevant Tangent posted:

the population of oregon outside the cities seems to be pretty opposed to masks and other sensible measures

Btw quite a few cases were from institutions (especially prisons) that were under state control but ignored but also the state turned a blind eye to food processing and nursing homes. There were high number of cases in certain rural counties (especially on the border with Idaho), but it was larger institutions that kept it going.

More recently, in response to record-breaking cases, Brown has limited gatherings to 6 people (not from a single household) but allowed restaurants and bars to have as many 50 patrons without masks on indoors. Basically, it is okay to spread the virus as long as its going to someone's pocket.

That said, we have known for months all of this was coming and so did state governments across this country and the common response seems to have been "let them die as long as everything rolling along"....until the point it gets so bad that everyone is terrified to leave their houses again.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 04:54 on Nov 12, 2020

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Schwack posted:

It's weird how much the red parts of Oregon hate Kate Brown. Her reponse to COVID has been tepid at best, but lots of folks hate her with a fiery passion. Oregon hasn't gone nearly far enough. So far, it seems like we've escaped the worst case scenarios through sheer luck.

Oregon is the extremes of American politics in a nutshell.

I think a big part of it is simply that Oregon clamped down fairly early on because Washington and California were some first states hit and that meant the infection didn't get as strong as a hold as some states. That said, we have been really spiking with the rest of the country, and our luck may have run out.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

The Oldest Man posted:

The WA eviction moratorium was only ever a 1/4 solution anyway, partially because of what you mentioned (people are never going to be able to catch up) but also because the skyrocketing prices in the Seattle metro area have forced thousands of people into illegal sublets and gray-market arrangements that weren't ever going to be covered, and because an increasing number of landlords are "self helping" with illegal lockouts, intimidation, and harassment. The wave of homelessness is just going to build and build until finally the moratorium can't be extended to kick the can for another month or three and a good couple hundred thousand people go over the cliff all at once (or as fast as the courts will process them).

Meanwhile I just took my dog for a walk and my local coffee shop had a crowd of around 15 or so Abercrombie looking influencers with their insta boyfriends, snapping pictures of them hugging and posing. No masks. Put them in MAGA hats and move venue to an Applebees; I don't see a difference.

There is a good question of how a Biden administration/state governments gets out of the current situation because once the vaccine is in place there is going to be a massive push to get rid of eviction moratoriums (in places they still exist) (and the ban on foreclosures isn't going to last forever either).

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:31 on Nov 12, 2020

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Thanatosian posted:

The housing crisis was a thing that nobody from centrist dems rightward has had any loving idea of how to deal with over the past couple of decades; COVID didn't create it, it just very slightly accelerated it, and Biden is just going to let a bunch of people get kicked out of their homes, because the alternative is upsetting real estate investors.

Well, looking at Portland, I would say it was more than a slight acceleration, but yeah it was already a giant issue and will continue to be in the future and once evictions are fully unfettered it is going to only get worse. It doesn't help that in Portland almost all of the new construction has been targeted on the high-end.

There may be some slight declines due to a oversupply of housing but landlords often are "willing to wait" for their ideal price while most of the city looks like a backdrop from Looper.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Nov 12, 2020

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

IM DAY DAY IRL posted:

as was proven earlier in the year "recommendations" are by and large useless and are only slightly less stupid than mandates that have zero plan for enforcement.

Granted, right now Oregon has nearly thrown up its hands and it seems like they are fine with a coming Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Years wave as long as the bars stay open.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
They know that people on the margins are going to have the most difficulty with coming up with the necessary paperwork for a “hardship” test.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
There is an implicit cynicism in all of this which is simply state governments refuse to shut down their borders, and rather than try to eradicate the outbreak, they are going to conduct policies that piss off a business the least while somewhat trying to keep the pandemic very modestly in check.

So you get scare campaigns and some closures, but very little actual intervention in terms of testing/tracing and/or stay-at-home orders, so essentially the pandemic would go on forever (remember immunity can often only last 6 months) without a vaccine.

That said, other massive issues (such as climate change) are and will continue to be approached in the same way since genuine attempts to fix it would be costly and potentially unpopular with businesses so the result is going to be feel-good photo-ops and little else.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

We will see, but it may be a non-factor, I am sure there will be a some cases but it is going to be just above freezing at night soon and I doubt there will be a wave of people coming out. If anything I think a lot of places have a dilemma if they don't have a bunch of heating lamps.

Btw, how much price inflation have people noticed at restaurants? I have been cooking at home across the pandemic, but occasionally I check on prices and they quite literally seem 20-30% above what they were before the pandemic and that is after a giant spike from 2015. A bar in Sellwood had a standard burger around $13 bucks (this isn't a upscale place either), $1.5 for add-ons, and fish and chips was $16. How are people going to afford those prices after the pandemic?

On one hand I get restaurants have a lot of pressure on them, but there is only so far you can push customers.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

halokiller posted:

I haven't really noticed because Seattle is already loving expensive to eat at.

At least I would say that Seattle holds a stronger wage base than Portland, Seattle prices and Portland wages seems like a recipe for disaster.

Granted, the big issue is commercial rents and they have reached the point that many businesses that otherwise would be fine are now unsustainable.

Gerund posted:

Personally, the captive audience for eating out of worker-bees stuck in shared-kitchen apodments because of the hole in regulations is something I am neither okay with and should be fixed sooner than later.

I really can't imagine living that way during a pandemic. At this point, you probably would able to save most of rent for a real apartment just by not ordering out. I mean cooking isn't that hard, especially nowadays where youtube tutorials.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Nov 26, 2020

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Well, at least in the Portland metro, the big shift seems to be rent prices since local grocery prices in all honesty haven't changed that much. It is also why it is going to hard not to see people home cooking more as groceries prices modestly increase while dining out seems to be spiking. As for wages, the minimum wage in Portland is $13.25 and I have seen line cook positions starting at $15. (Outside the Portland metro, the minimum wage is $11.50-12.00), it is why high rents are more punishing

More and more commercial properties are hoping up...and often staying vacant and that may simply the result of landlords refusing to lower prices. The same thing is happening in New York and other big metros, but it is a big more tricky in Portland because so much of the economy is depended on hospitality and small businesses in the first place.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

generic one posted:

The next couple of weeks are gonna be awful. Should start seeing how big the impact is gonna be from Thanksgiving. :(

I would say we should already be seeing it now (there has been a bump in the average) which should extend until the Xmas/New Years bumps, basically this train is going to keep on roiling into late January.

Also, at this point, it is also pretty hard to keep people from meeting independently absent an actual lockdown.

That said, it will be interesting to see if we get a threshold in February/March where the virus may start running out of "fuel" due to a combination of factors.

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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

generic one posted:

The number of cases is definitely on the rise, but as I understand it (maybe I’m wrong here), hospitalizations should start spiking about two weeks to three weeks after, so we probably don’t have a clear idea just how bad it’s gonna be quite yet.

But yeah, you’e right, this will probably just be a preview of what we’re in for with Xmas/New Years.

I am just referring to raw cases, we are just at the beginning of the thanksgiving case wave. Deaths may peak in February and March.

That said, there is possibly a point where vaccines/self quarantining/people with antibodies will slow down the infection but I don’t think we will get there until January.

A lot of businesses will be surviving off government money for quite a while.

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