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fsif
Jul 18, 2003

farraday posted:

WaPo and NYT have been dropping their leaks during late afternoon early evening to dominate evening news and drive interest before the morning editions. Got about 2 more hours or so before the end of the likely Mattering window for the day.

One theory I read was that it gives White House officials time to comment, but not enough time to get ahead of the story.

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fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Quick observation: after the election, it seemed to be consensus that the Democrats failed because we weren't as Machiavellian as the Republicans and that it was time to drop the “when they go low, we go high” mantra.

That seems well and good but in reality, the left cannot do it, as exemplified by this Maddow debate. Disinformation and breathless speculation were very much in the "going low" toolbox of Republicans, but there's still a lot of consternation over a news anchor that acted largely responsibly. You'd never see a debate on Freerepublic on whether or not O'Reilly was acting ethically in his reporting of Benghazi.

I don't think this is a bad thing for the left, mind you; we just have to realize it's baked in disadvantage we have.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

evilweasel posted:

Today's leak. It's just Trump Is A Bad President not Trump Is The Worst Criminal Of All Time:

https://twitter.com/jameshohmann/status/867155091089960961

This seems like it should be a bigger deal.

https://theintercept.com/2017/05/23/trump-called-rodrigo-duterte-to-congratulate-him-on-his-murderous-drug-war-you-are-doing-an-amazing-job/

quote:

IN A PHONE CALL from the White House late last month, U.S. President Donald Trump heaped praise on Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, one of the world’s most murderous heads of state, for doing what Trump called an “unbelievable job” in his war on drugs. Trump offered an unqualified endorsement of Duterte’s bloody extermination campaign against suspected drug dealers and users, which has included open calls for extrajudicial murders and promises of pardons and immunity for the killers.

“You are a good man,” Trump told Duterte, according to an official transcript of the April 29 call produced by the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs and obtained by The Intercept. “Keep up the good work,” Trump told Duterte. “You are doing an amazing job.”

fsif
Jul 18, 2003


It's only going to keep ascending once Americans see how much money they'll save this afternoon!

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

It should go without saying, but this is class warfare.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Rigel posted:

gently caress your stupid rag. Who even buys your paper anymore.

Unfortunately, nearly twice as many people as the New York Times.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

I don't know enough about his district, but this HAS to spell the end for Paul Ryan in 2018, right? Or is his a constituency particularly susceptible to messages like “I will literally murder you”?

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

TGLT posted:

Last election he won his district by about 35 points. So uh, have to be one hell of a wave to unseat him.

Maybe a primary challenger?

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Wish I lived in a world where I wasn't now 100% sure Gianporte would win.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Alter Ego posted:

It's probably still likely, but Quist's chances just got a lot better in a hurry.

If there was an enthusiasm gap before, it closed up now that Republicans found a man that won't take no poo poo from some effete coastal elite fake news journalist.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/867544744041295872

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Montana will briefly be our national laughingstock if Gianporte wins tomorrow, so of course he'll win.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Caros posted:

The sad part is that now Quist's win will be chalked up less to "Holy gently caress healthcare is toxic as poo poo you guys, don't vote for it" and more to "Don't commit a felony on the eve of your election."

If they can't already see how toxic Trumpcare is, there's no saving them anyway.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

mcmagic posted:

Actually he's in a state where he will never lose to a democrat. He could get primaried from the right by a trumpist.

He was on one of the Sunday shows the other weekend and spoke frankly about the troubles ailing modern America, like how families never eat dinner at the table together anymore.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

ThePeavstenator posted:

This is one of those things that at its core has merit, it's harder for parents to have both the time and finances to raise children and our educational systems encourage children to overburden themselves with coursework and activities they don't really care about or want to do because "gotta get a job one day, but first I need to get into college and get scholarships to afford it".

Of course they'll ignore the fact that income has effectively dropped and people need to work more to afford basic living expenses, let alone kids. Instead they'll just complain about the dirty feminists that said maybe women should do more than make babies or how kids don't respect their elders anymore.

The point is that he's a US Senator who is witness to a nation facing innumerable domestic issues, many matters of life and death, and he's using his platform to focus on how our cultural values have deviated from the Cleavers'.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Mister Fister posted:

He's basically a republican with bad policy ideas, but a decent human being otherwise, basically a unicorn amongst the GOP.

I'll believe it when he votes to impeach.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Z. Autobahn posted:

If Bernie Sanders bodyslammed Sean Hannity, we would be crowning him Emperor of the Galaxy.

Yeah but Hannity's not a reporter.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003


It owns that Trump's approval ratings are about to be higher than Clinton's were. We're such a nation of not morons.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Taerkar posted:

This doesn't surprise me at all. Look at the initial rush of money any time a poor oppressed Christian business makes the news because someone was intolerant of their intolerance.

Darren Wilson raised over half a million dollars for murdering a black person.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

remusclaw posted:

She's just starting to think she might fall into the Presidency?

She means the House will pass the bill.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Bhaal posted:

I would write/call this week but my senators are:

- Jeff Flake, 100% behind trump, and who was tragically bludgeoned over the head by large sacks of money and doctors fear he is no longer able to comprehend criticism

- John McCain, whose concern for the righteousness of my appeals is second to nothing in this world, save only to his unwillingness to do a single thing about it.

Are you kidding? You should call them every day.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Quist is out performing Hillary between 5-11% in all counties.

Not particularly encouraging if you're rooting for a Quist win.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Khisanth Magus posted:

1/3 of all registered voters in the state mailed in ballots, this needed to happen sooner.

Okay, the man who is running in the same political party that voted for AHCA and Donald Trump won.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

TARDISman posted:

If I was a GOPer and I didn't win by 20+ I'd be making GBS threads myself right now.

Their dude just choke slammed a reporter and the GOP has endured pretty much nothing but negative news cycles since Trump took office. Maybe Republicans in blueish areas could sweat, but the majority of them can probably exhale right about now.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Ragnar Homsar posted:

The chokeslam happened yesterday and a majority of Montana's electorate voted early.

I'm aware and I'm not saying this is a disastrous result for the Dems. But Gianforte was not a particularly strong candidate and the election was very visible came at a time of high public scrutiny of the GOP and Trump.

As I said, some Republicans will sweat, but the election results are proving that a lot of the rosier Dem projections were quite exaggerated.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

axeil posted:

This is an R+20 seat. If the Dems win this it implies in a nationwide election they would win something like 320 seats.

Montana's electoral makeup isn't the same as most red districts. They are more apt to vote D than most red states.

Also, it was R+20 when Hillary Clinton was on the ballot. Quist wasn't a perfect candidate himself, but he's more appealing than Clinton and you'd still expect that gap to narrow with a Republican in office, especially one that's as much of a shitshow as Trump.

We'll see what the final results are, but losing handedly in this environment to this candidate isn't a call for celebration.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

This seat was going to be largely symbolic anyway, but unfortunately, instead of symbolizing "uh oh, maybe we gotta taper back on killing our constituents and our deference to the insane corrupt toddler", it symbolizes "ha! gently caress off, journalists.”

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

And yet this congressional seat was +20R. Compare apples to apples.

Montana only has one congressman in the House. It is apples to apples.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

538 is sort of guessing that Quist is going to lose by 5–10 points. Earlier this week, before the CBO score or the choke slam, I think we were hoping for a result that would be too close to call before people on the east coast went to sleep, if not just MAYBE an outright victory.

It's a disappointment. I don't think the Democrats are totally hosed in 2018 because of this, but tonight's results represent something on the more unfortunate end of the "likely outcomes" spectrum. I don't really see why we need to cheer.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/867935997715075073
https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/867944777425182720

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

skylined! posted:

oh hey look the news conglomerate to fill the void left by Fox News that someone was wondering about.

{{{Sinclair is legit scarier than breitfart}}}

Yes, by a considerable margin. Much more insidious and harder to identify.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Sinclair is also likely buying out Tribune after the FCC decided to loosen up market share regulations last month.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

60% of the vote was cast before body-slam gate. Can we get that in giant 100 point bold font with sirens flashing around it?

I think the people who care enough to post in a thread about the live results of a Montana special election are likely already aware of this.

It's possible that one can know this information and still conclude it's a disappointing evening or that it probably wouldn't have made a difference in the election even if it happened two weeks ago.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003


I refuse to believe these people cannot be undone.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Booker is by far the most charismatic of 2018's likely Democratic candidates and I don't think his sketchy connections are as big of a turn off to the Democratic electorate writ large as they are to people in this thread. As long as he's not stanning for Jared two years from now, he's probably still the front runner.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

evilweasel posted:

His sketchy connections aren't the problem. His unsolicited defenses of those people are. There was one point where he complained (on TV, I believe) that attacks on Goldman Sachs made him sick. Those comments won't go away, nor will whatever drove him to say that or defend Kushner. Who donated to him isn't really the problem, its that he then goes and defends those people on TV.

Hope I'm not getting into Dem thread territory here, but I don't think those comments will matter that much come 2020. Clinton won her primary fairly comfortably and she has about a tenth of Booker's charisma.

I could see a sustained effort from a politically-engaged left maybe sinking him over it (and I acknowledge that the political climate of 2020 will be very different from what it was a year ago), but I think it's premature to say that his presidential ambitions are sunk.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

DaveWoo posted:

Glenn Greenwald believes leaks are "serious crimes" now, apparently:

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/869560721885024256

He says he's okay with the leaks, but JUST THINKS IT'S FUNNY how establishment players aren't calling for the leakers' imprisonment or whatever.

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/869561258701447168

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

DaveWoo posted:

Yeah, he usually backtracks into that position whenever he's called out on it. Like Sinteres said, he's played this little game before.

Greenwald's shtick is tiring, but I don't think he's being hypocritical here.

That said, it takes a special kind of tunnel vision to produce that take in an environment like this, heh.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Pakled posted:

Yeah, the issue with coal mining jobs isn't just the economic impact, but also the perception of coal mining as being a proud, masculine profession, a "real job," a "man's job." It's another example of toxic masculinity.

It's also explicitly a white man's job. ~95% of coal miners are white men.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

Majorian posted:

No, I think coal workers were part of the problem, as were other laid-off/underemployed industrial workers. The point is, the Dems need to promise a jobs program if they want to win in those Blue Wall states again.

They did. Clinton mentioned jobs in every stump speech and it was the first thing she mentioned in the first debate.

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fsif
Jul 18, 2003

I have to admit, I didn't expect the New York Times's decision to hire Bret Stephens to backfire to this extent so nakedly and so abruptly, heh.

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