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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
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| Labour |
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907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
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48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
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31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
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13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
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25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
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22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
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12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
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1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
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59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
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4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
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3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
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36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
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35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
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49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
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39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
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2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
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188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
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15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
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312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
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Entropy238 posted:Just to be clear, I did say if tangible evidence was available - I haven't stated I believe that it actually exists. It wouldn't unless it convinced some significant fraction of Leave voters they were deceived, and nothing short of a vlog of Putin himself frenchig Nigel Farrage would do that.
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Jun 1, 2017 16:29
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Polls always contract just before elections. Corbyn has played his hand incredibly well (particularly compared to May who keeps confusing which side of the card she's supposed to be looking at) but lets keep our expectations realistic? She ties her majority and she's gone, so there's that.
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Jun 2, 2017 12:40
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Irony Be My Shield posted:The bottom seems to have really fallen out of May's personal popularity. You didn't have to watch the debate or even read any analysis of it to get the main story: the woman who spent all campaign calling herself strong chickened out of it. I imagine there's still some more Labour swing due on that. I think it's big among the politically aware, but there are still masses of inertia of people less engaged. Tons of people vote without really being interested in the political process.
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Jun 2, 2017 15:53
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Pissflaps posted:Tough night for Corbyn but if you think the Corbyn Surge doesn't need swing voters and instead can rely on an energised youth vote and high turnout from traditional non voters then you shouldn't be too worried. He needed both of those things unfortunately. e: and possibly several more, tbh
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Jun 2, 2017 22:13
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HAT FETISH posted:Again: It's cool how a hypothetical belligerent foreign power would necessarily be 100% trusting of a foreign head of state's public policy on nuclear retaliation. The mere possession of nuclear offensive capability is the deterrent; anti-nuke rhetoric makes for good optics at home, but on the international stage, it must always be treated as a potential smokescreen. Well, sort of? There's two tiers of potential MAD issues I can see here, and neither of them are particularly good. First, a foreign power could believe that any claims of not retaliating would be a total lie, but that still weakens MAD because their intelligence services would have to confirm this to some degree (finding some token efforts to stand down readiness etc) which Corbyn almost certainly would, regardless if it's true or if it's a bluff. Reducing readiness is still a hugely dangerous proposition because it makes the possibility of a first strike more enticing, and it creates potential friction between the UK and their nuclear hellfire onii-san of the US. Second, if they sincerely believe Corbyn's doomsday response (or letter) would nullify the second strike, there's still a huge concern, because the established nuclear deterrent infrastructure will be hugely resistant to that. That could lead to some degree of very very short term coup: the submarine operators ignoring the letter, etc etc etc. Rational nation states behaving or becoming irrational is a huge huge huge risk to MAD, probably one of the most serious ones. In addition, if they sincerely believe that he'd never first strike, they can afford to be much more provocative and make choices that threaten MAD on the assumption that he won't fire first, which sort of undercuts my previous point in a sense, but reinforces it in another: the risk of them behaving irrationally is as dangerous as us behaving irrationally.
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Jun 3, 2017 11:17
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Trin Tragula posted:
See my point: this is absolutely a major threat to MAD. MAD functions primarily on the assumption that nations behave rationally, and nations risking less rational behavior threatens MAD.
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Jun 3, 2017 11:22
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Angepain posted:
I'm pretty sure that's getting less true in Scotland all the time. There are plenty of SNP supporters who are single issue independence who would absolutely riot at many of the things Labour are suggesting: "progressive alliance" issues are going to be easy on poo poo like tuition fees or prescriptions simply to avoid hypocrisy, but there are still tons of tartan tories in the SNP who would find tax increases totally against their interests and beliefs. If Scottish Labour continues to be a basketcase the SNP's main concern is going to be keeping their right wing from deflecting to the opposition because left leaning SNP supporters are going to have no viable choices, and often rank independence extremely highly. And as little as we like to admit it here (particularly because we have a lot of good will towards the SNP in it's current form and SNP supporters who post here) a Labour government is absolutely against the SNP's interest because the current government allows them the insanely big ideological tent they've enjoyed so far. They'll wind up walking a total tightrope under Corbyn for the reasons outlined above.
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Jun 3, 2017 15:10
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Angepain posted:I do agree in general that the SNP are going to have a hell of a tightrope to walk if they have to prop up Labour, but I'm not sure about this bit - the Scottish Greens are at least a viable pro-independence option to give seats to in Holyrood (and in the council elections), which is an important battleground for the SNP. If the left vote in Scotland winds up split between three parties then any motivation they have to try and keep their left dissolves completely, and I imagine many leftist SNP supporters are going to be very aware of this. The Greens and maybe even Labour will make gains in PR systems which will hurt any independence hopes even more and wind up utterly decimating any representation they have in Parliament. quote:Also the SNP membership has made a bit of noise recently on issues like land value taxes which may manage to slowly drag them away from the tartan tory gang, though I imagine that is going to take a while if it happens. But then again, hope is a mistake. Dragging themselves away from the tartans is absolutely their core issue. The SNP's main strength and their major weakness is the exact same thing: they have an unprecedentedly wide appeal in Scotland as they capture nearly everyone who wants Scottish independence, which is a broad loving spectrum. If they alienate their right wing they lose that absolute dominance, and risk allowing one of the unionist parties to try to grab the entire unionist vote, which is happening right now.
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Jun 3, 2017 15:35
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Angepain posted:
Because while they're pro-independence, it's nowhere near as important an issue to them and they can't be relied upon like SNP MSPs are. Dominance of Holyrood is one of the SNP's strongest assets both towards pushing for another referendum and generally, and again, if they're ever forced to make concessions to the Greens to achieve their goals they start alienating their base.
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Jun 3, 2017 15:48
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Namtab posted:Why would the guy admit that? Pretty standard anti-establishment populist, really. If your primary motivations in the BNP or the National Front are "because the establishment clearly despise them and the establishment is screwing me" or "because they make concrete promises of more British investment, jobs, dealing with poverty, etc" (actually I'm more sure that's true of the BNP instead of the NF but it's pretty common fash tactics) then liking Corbyn is perfectly consistent. Like every political party, there are whole spectrums of reasons people like fash parties - maybe the 1950s they want to bring back includes the Attlee policies as well as throwing bricks at brown people.
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Jun 3, 2017 16:12
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that's super illegal in like, five different directions at once
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Jun 3, 2017 17:02
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jBrereton posted:what do we reckon, then, 370 tory seats? I'm cynical as gently caress, 350. I said 100 seat majority when she called it though, so at least I'm marginally less cynical now.
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Jun 3, 2017 20:50
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These numbers just aren't as good as they seem. The real shock of 2015 was the Tories devouring the Lib Dem seats and the SNP continuing their wipeout of basically all of Labour's scottish seats. The first will absolutely happen again to some degree, and the second most likely will be worse, with the Conservatives possibly picking up a handful of SNP seats. Labour has the same boundary advantages (for the last time most likely) but faces all the same issues with votes concentrated in places they don't matter, demographics who don't turn up, and now incumbent advantages on specific MPs that have grown even stronger. I'm still super super cynical. It's going to take a miracle, and, for real, if you want anything that's even something like a Labour victory you need to get Thursday off and get your asses up to get out that motherfucking vote, if it's not too late to sign up.
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Jun 3, 2017 21:16
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ronya posted:well the good-ish news on that front is that Lib Dem and ScotLab have run low of seats to be eaten Well, no, because former Conservative seats the Lib Dems lost will most likely be held by the Conservatives because they were seats that Labour wasn't and likely still isn't competitive in (particularly since the Lib Dems are still trying to regain them with all their might and looks like failing) which splits the leftish/Remain vote.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:22
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Also, if I recall correctly YouGov provided the single poll that predicted a Yes win in the Scottish referendum, they were one of the highest for Labour in the 2015 election and they were one of the highest for Remain in the EU referendum (please correct me if I'm wrong). Too many internet polls, not enough telephone ones, iirc?
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Jun 3, 2017 22:27
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initial reports will be wildly inaccurate and that's the nature of the 24 hour news cycle with that said, a terrorist attack at 1030 on a Saturday night into five people on a bridge seems rather ineffective. is london bridge typically packed at this time and, moreso then many other available targets at other times?
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Jun 3, 2017 23:08
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Jedit posted:No, you don't recall correctly. The only polling company to ever predict a Yes win was Panelbase, in a poll paid for by the SNP. ICM and YouGov did put out two later polls that showed more Yes voters than No voters, but they used the undecideds as a third category while Panelbase excluded them completely to give a 51-49 result. ICM also showed Yes further ahead, 7% against YouGov's 2%. Ah, thanks. I legitimately wasn't sure. All I remember was Yougov seeming to consistently overstate the possibility of a left wing victory, I could be completely mistaken.
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Jun 4, 2017 01:06
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the leadership could never go to anyone who was staunchly Remain or Leave, too much blood left in the water after that campaign. may cinched it by hedging her bets and not picking a side before the vote, which lead to the farce of party leader and prime minister with no competency at campaigning. this has proven problematic. she'll never face a GE again, I'd wager
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Jun 6, 2017 14:10
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OwlFancier posted:She was pro remain but not as vocal as most of the big names. And she made a bunch of "I'm Remain but boy it works be nice to get rid of the EU's human rights court" style statements - again, she had the savvy to hedge her bets. The field then came down to sore losers and triumphant liars who couldn't possibly deliver and May who hadn't pissed anyone off.
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Jun 6, 2017 14:45
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in the extremely unlikely event Corbyn is prime minister in two days can we change the thread title to You Jammy Bastard
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Jun 7, 2017 16:19
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50 seat Tory majority, May won't see another GE, Corbyn out in a month but the bastard who replaces him will be doomed too. Maybe the one after will realise the appeal of Corbyn's policies. I don't gamble, sorry
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Jun 7, 2017 16:32
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Halisnacks posted:I'm just brushing up on my (recent) history of the 2010 UK government formation. So... is it accurate that the Lib Dems prioritized a coalition with the Tories not because of ideological overlap or policy objectives, but just because the Tories had the most seats? Was that considered a noble position to take as King-makers? everyone shut up and don't spoil it yes absolutely
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Jun 7, 2017 16:48
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I want to say: despite my pessimistic attitude, the Corbyn campaign has really been phenomenal. Just the consistency of tone is...unprecedented, outrageous, nonsensical - there were three terrorist attacks during the campaign, and Jeremy loving Corbyn's approval rating went up. That's loving batshit. May's been scoring own goals like a colorblind Pele but-man. He's going to lose, but good lord did he put up a fight.
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Jun 7, 2017 18:04
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there were people at my polling station which I've literally never seen
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Jun 8, 2017 10:00
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I am making a total nuisance of myself by politely asking everyone in my office if they've voted. My desk mates are sick of it.
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Jun 8, 2017 11:29
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Al-Saqr posted:What is it about mothers that makes them such heartless cunts when it comes to politics? Like I've noticed that something snaps in them and makes a ton of them go all out rightwing fascist a ton of times it's insane. were you maybe trying to quote someone else? my mum will be dead in her grave before she votes Tory
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Jun 8, 2017 11:41
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quote:The Sun’s front page assault on Jeremy Corbyn and its warning to readers not to chuck Britain in the “Cor-bin” has prompted a “bin the Sun” backlash. quick throw money at them that will make it stop
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Jun 8, 2017 12:36
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Blurred posted:Foreigner here: can someone explain what happens in the event that neither party gets an absolute majority of seats? Does that mean the need to form a coalition government? And are the SNP (as the biggest third party, from what I can tell) most likely to side with Labour in that case, or is that not relevant at all? well they don't in the strictest sense "have" to. in theory, if say three totally diametrically opposed parties got an equal number of seats and were totally incompatible one would try to form a government, two would vote no confidence, we'd have another election. in a practical sense though, no one with enough seats to form at least part of a government wants to stay out of government
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Jun 8, 2017 21:41
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Pissflaps posted:About six people locked in a room led by this guy i bet he would be a really good DM
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Jun 8, 2017 21:55
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dex_sda posted:Dungeon Master? yeah he would lead a really killer campaign, just has that look about him
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Jun 8, 2017 21:58
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wow a 50 seat tory majority?!
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Jun 8, 2017 22:00
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https://twitter.com/parliawint/status/779747279037198336
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Jun 8, 2017 22:23
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African AIDS cum posted:So people are happy that they lost but not by as much as they thought they would? corbyn achieved his objective of gaining seats (which seemed impossible) and, much more importantly, may managed to, well, i'll put it in her words https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/865855578454806529 to put it better: they both lost, but may lost much, much harder
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Jun 8, 2017 22:48
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Pissflaps posted:The exit poll can't be so wrong that this isn't a victory for Corbyn of one form or another. no fooling, i'm actually kind of proud of you for saying that dude. you really always were a good boy who meant well 
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Jun 8, 2017 22:56
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African AIDS cum posted:Now Boris will destroy Corbyn and be PM? it would be hard to run a worse campaign then May, but I bet Boris could take a swing at it
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Jun 8, 2017 22:57
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African AIDS cum posted:Can you tell the Corden story someone buys loving amazing big red custom texts, possibly from a better version of reality
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Jun 8, 2017 22:59
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the postal votes could also play against the massive youth turnout in the exit poll, surely. if old people post and young people vote in person and they base the exit poll on the in person voters because young people never turned up before...
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Jun 8, 2017 23:58
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Pissflaps posted:Good morning fellow Corbyn fans people are going to be dogpiling you here but again, you showed character last night. you honestly didn't believe he was electable, and when he demonstrated otherwise (admittedly not to the level we'd all prefer, but far beyond what we dared to hope) you were happy to be wrong  Everyone said it was impossible. It wasn't. And next time, the PLP might remember that.
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Jun 9, 2017 08:17
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JFairfax posted:no gently caress that, if people like pissflaps had actually got behind corbyn from the start instead of being loving idiots for two years then labour could have done even better I can't fault him for cynicism: I was calling a 50 seat majority as of 9:30 last night. He wasn't being disingenuous- if he actually believed Corbyn was unelectable, his actions are perfectly consistant with someone trying to advance a Labour government. You're right in saying that if the center and right got behind him from the beginning we wouldn't be here, but there will be two kinds of those people: those who sincerely didn't believe he could win, who's only sin is cynicism and who can be reformed, and those who couldn't allow him to win because they didn't want it. The latter needs to go.
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Jun 9, 2017 08:36
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| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 07:55 |
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The Insect Court posted:It's not that they'll be anti-Corbyn, the danger is that they'll fail to understand the reasons for Labour outperforming expectations. Whether it's tankies insisting that Corbyn should embrace the Stop The War types or neoliberals insisting that the way to a governing majority is to embrace 'fiscal discipline'. Corbyn won(well, "won") by eschewing both Blairite market worship and fringe left extremism. If that's the way he's willing to compromise with the PLP i.e. a solid anti austerity agenda with consultations with the membership/PLP for more radical ideas I'm ecstatic.
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Jun 9, 2017 10:11
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