Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

It is pretty amusing when you see people bang the drum of anti-nuke proliferation as we happily aid sauds and israelis chop up any country without them that we dislike.

I legit hope Iran really does have nukes.

# ¿ Jun 1, 2018 16:40

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 11:36

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

You can count the number of modern countries that became more progressive by being invaded on one hand. If anything it just gives regressive forces a convenient boogeyman; that egalitarian policy and reforms are the venue of the occupying force, in contrast to the more local and traditional resistance force.

No, Afghanistan isn't going to become progressive overnight. I have more faith in organic movements eventually emerging than I do in military forces notoriously bad at fighting guerilla armies suddenly stamping out the taliban & winning the hearts and minds of every afghani after two decades of executions, bombings, and military bases.

# ¿ Jul 6, 2021 21:38

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

It's pretty wild how bad we are at not only nationbuilding, but arming, training, and fortifying loyalists. At least the afghanistan warlords can say they're being stumped by a veteran guerilla force, rather than syrian hooligans with US guns ambushing them then having their munitions katamari'd.

# ¿ Jul 7, 2021 12:55

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

We can add them to our growing list of 'government-in-exile' losers. Siphon some bank accounts and aid funds.

# ¿ Jul 9, 2021 12:19

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

I wont pretend that the Taliban are any good, but I will say that the warlords they're rolling aren't exactly much better.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacha_bazi

E: Hearts and Minds

quote:

In December 2010, a cable made public by WikiLeaks revealed that foreign contractors from DynCorp had spent money on bacha bazi in northern Afghanistan. Afghan Interior Minister Mohammad Hanif Atmar requested that the U.S. military assume control over DynCorp training centres in response, but the U.S. embassy claimed that this was not "legally possible under the DynCorp contract".

"We didnt include a 'dont rape kids' clause in our mercenary contract, sorry folks!"

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 09:15 on Jul 10, 2021

# ¿ Jul 10, 2021 09:11

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

i say swears online posted:

becauce the winner will also be friendly to US interests

This. Pretty much every potential leader is entirely fine with keeping up the US grift. Last I checked the biggest candidate to use proletariat rhetoric also happens to be a gang leader & mercenary who advanced american interests.

# ¿ Jul 11, 2021 18:56

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Americans barely pay/paid any attention to the Afghanistan war, the 'humiliation' wont affect him at all.

The real embarassment will come later if the Taliban-China-Pakistan projects bear fruit and life ends up sucking significantly less than at any point during the twenty-year US occupation. And bombs right now wouldn't stop that.

# ¿ Jul 14, 2021 14:45

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

To be fair this thread doesnt have the most incredible track record in vetting sources in general, lest we return to the african mercenary rape gangs of Libya.

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 09:44 on Jul 24, 2021

# ¿ Jul 24, 2021 09:41

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

I think there's nothing wrong with being glad that Afghanistan might see peace, and it's easy to ruminate on the Taliban's [many] flaws without considering that the various afghan warlords are also extraordinarily horrible, and not just in their military competence. Girls wont be allowed to learn, and boys wont have to learn what an anal fissure is; a sideways shift in the miserable state of Afghanistan.

# ¿ Jul 25, 2021 04:47

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

https://twitter.com/BurgerPilled/status/1420966234821218311?s=20

Good troll game, IMO

# ¿ Jul 30, 2021 20:45

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Haystack posted:

What is Isreal's influence on Afghanistan, anyway?

Can't imagine its much; Israel's ground game is dogshit, and its not like the afghan warlords suffered a dearth of airstrike support.

# ¿ Jul 30, 2021 22:17

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

This was pretty evident with Cuba, where, after a week of drumming up fervor against the island, Blinken managed to assemble an utterly anemic list of nations willing to even go the length of toothlessly denouncing an island they largely aren't allowed to trade with.

America has no clout left in the field of foreign policy. South America is experiencing a new pink wave, Afghanistan is officially a lost war, domestic public opinion is turning against Israel, and Iran has predictably reacted to the US's latest bullshit with anointing the most anti-US president possible. Their biggest achievement as of late has been turning international public opinion against China (but not government opinions, who still need to trade with them), and COVID-19 conspiracies did the brunt of the work there.

# ¿ Aug 8, 2021 18:13

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Count Roland posted:

Plus the ANA has access to a lot of US hardware, and its troops US training.

Between Iraq getting chumped by ISIS and the ANA getting chumped by the Taliban, perhaps US training is actively detrimental when talking about a guerilla force.

# ¿ Aug 11, 2021 22:30

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

New taliban seem pretty savvy wrt trolling; regardless of when they for-reals capture the rest of Afghanistan, they're going to announce control over the country on 9/11

# ¿ Aug 13, 2021 08:57

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

On the subject of evacuations, any new developments wrt whats going to happen to ANA/US informants and assets? Last I checked the administration was trying to offload them to Turkey who went "we have 4 million refugees, we didnt start this war, gently caress you, no".

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Aug 13, 2021

# ¿ Aug 13, 2021 18:59

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Said warlords also got & continue to get up to some truly reprehensible poo poo (that doesnt get covered as much as the Taliban's crimes), which the Taliban has made use of to recruit members.

# ¿ Aug 14, 2021 05:30

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

AHH F/UGH posted:

I guess the people of the country REALLY wanted Islamic fascism so now they get it or whatever

Occupying forces generally aren't regarded highly, regardless of their intentions.

# ¿ Aug 14, 2021 08:38

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

It doesn't help that US nationbuilding seems to consist entirely of building military bases, and cool tech forts can only take you so far.

# ¿ Aug 14, 2021 22:59

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

What I don't understand is how the US spent two decades and several trillion dollars only to see Afghanistan fold in under two weeks. What in the actual gently caress happened there? And don't just blithely say 'lol soldiers didn't get paid'. The Americans had 20 loving years to notice this.

The United States is really, really bad at building things. Both in the literal (most of our labor is outsourced, Reprivatisierung is an ethos among both parties, we struggle to centrally build & upkeep our own country let alone others) and abstract (We've spent the majority of our years as a global superpower funding death squads, leveling nations, tricking eastern european nations into making the same mistakes we did, fetishizing shock doctrine, etc.).

It's not a surprise that all there is to show for twenty years and trillions of dollars of effort is a lot of air bases, a military that has been trained to be incompetent at dealing with guerilla warfare, and enormous caches of guns; it's all we really know. That and convincing US businesses to open fast food chains in inappropriate places.

Maybe China will do better, by simple virtue of the fact that they're considering infrastructure projects, and not reserving space for hangar queens.

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Aug 15, 2021

# ¿ Aug 15, 2021 19:50

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

I guess it's easy to forget about folk like Mosaddegh, and how we actively boosted fundamentalists because they were willing to be fervently anti-communist.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2021 05:22

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Here we go the wikis are being updated

The president-in-exile sips his tea, delegating his various potential duties to the rest of the government-in-exile. His general-in-exile informs him that the army-in-exile's quantum morale is high. He's established diplomatic relations with the other possible governments; Juan Guaido of Venezuela, Ivonka Survilla of Belarus, and Poochie of Itchy&Scratchy. With such alternative-allies at his side, the recapture of Afghanistan within the next hundred years is certain.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2021 05:40

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

A bloodbath at the airport, no matter how it would go, is something literally no group wants, even the average US warhawk seems to want to turn their nationkilling gaze towards another country. Nobody would 'win'.

The current status quo, of US soldiers shooting terrified civilians trying to board a plane while taliban sit across the street going "hey, whats up, take your time", is far more damaging to the US's image than any dead soldier could cause, and they have more than enough modern equipment without needing to rush some jarheads down.

On the US side, there is no appetite at all among US civilians for randomly kickstarting a new Afghanistan incursion, it would make Biden's statements more embarassing than they already are, and after twenty years of failure absolutely nobody is genuinely under the delusion that the country is winnable (currently. Give it a few years, get that Vietnam nostalgia going).

# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 13:38

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

boofhead posted:

Why would the Taliban care about how America looks? I don't understand the tactical or strategic benefit that they might gain (by making the US look even worse) that outweighs the billion other higher priority issues that come from taking over an entire country.. or is it just that everyone posting here is American? Apologies if that's a dumb question, I'm just not following the thought process people are attributing to the Taliban here

I mean, you dont need to think too hard on why a victorious force would be into making their former occupiers look terrible at no cost beyond "dont shoot at the airport". It's not exactly framing the US for an elaborate false flag attack.

# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 13:52

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Darth Walrus posted:

https://twitter.com/anand_gopal_/status/1434866471633625092?s=21

Really fantastic long read on rural Afghanistan. I strongly recommend it to everyone in the thread. On a related note, it turns out that the Zero Units had priority seating on the evacuation planes:

quote:

�We didn�t have a single night of peace. Our terror had a name, and it was Amir Dado.�
...
The lower valley was the home of the Ishaqzais, the poor tribe to which Shakira belonged. Shakira watched as Dado�s men went from door to door, demanding a �tax� and searching homes. A few weeks later, the gunmen returned, ransacking her family�s living room while she cowered in a corner. Never before had strangers violated the sanctity of her home, and she felt as if she�d been stripped naked and thrown into the street.
...
Shakira was tending the cows one evening when Dado�s men surrounded her with guns. �Where�s your uncle?� one of them shouted. The fighters stormed into the house�followed by Sana�s spurned fianc�. �She�s the one!� he said. The gunmen dragged Sana away. When Shakira�s other uncles tried to intervene, they were arrested. The next day, Sana�s husband turned himself in to Dado�s forces, begging to be taken in her place. Both were sent to the strongman�s religious court and sentenced to death.
...
Her brother came home reporting that the Taliban had also overrun Dado�s positions. The warlord had abandoned his men and fled to Pakistan. �He�s gone,� Shakira�s brother kept saying. �He really is.� The Taliban soon dissolved Dado�s religious court�freeing Sana and her husband, who were awaiting execution�and eliminated the checkpoints. After fifteen years, the Sangin Valley was finally at peace.
...
Suddenly, there was talk that soldiers from the richest country on earth were coming to overthrow the Taliban. For the first time in years, Shakira�s heart stirred with hope.

One night in 2003, Shakira was jolted awake by the voices of strange men. She rushed to cover herself. When she ran to the living room, she saw, with panic, the muzzles of rifles being pointed at her. The men were larger than she�d ever seen, and they were in uniform. These are the Americans, she realized, in awe. Some Afghans were with them, scrawny men with Kalashnikovs and checkered scarves. A man with an enormous beard was barking orders: Amir Dado.

Excellent article, would absolutely recommend everyone ITT read it for an idea of why many-afghan women included-aren't mourning the loss of the puppet government and return of the Taliban. The article divulges on the exploits of just two of the many amoral warlords we reinstated to rule over the country. It doesn't pull punches on where the Soviets, Mujahideen, Taliban, and US-Warlord regimes severely erred, either.

The interviews on the future of the Islamic Emirate are pretty interesting, and help explain why there seems to be conflicting statements wrt how the Taliban will approach women's rights:

quote:

It was clear that the Taliban are divided about what happens next. During my visit, dozens of members from different parts of Afghanistan offered strikingly contrasting visions for their Emirate. Politically minded Talibs who have lived abroad and maintain homes in Doha or Pakistan told me�perhaps with calculation�that they had a more cosmopolitan outlook than before. A scholar who�d spent much of the past two decades shuttling between Helmand and Pakistan said, �There were many mistakes we made in the nineties. Back then, we didn�t know about human rights, education, politics�we just took everything by power. But now we understand.� In the scholar�s rosy scenario, the Taliban will share ministries with former enemies, girls will attend school, and women will work �shoulder to shoulder� with men.
...
On the most sensitive question in village life�women�s rights�men like him have not budged. In many parts of rural Helmand, women are barred from visiting the market. When a Sangin woman recently bought cookies for her children at the bazaar, the Taliban beat her, her husband, and the shopkeeper. Taliban members told me that they planned to allow girls to attend madrassas, but only until puberty. As before, women would be prohibited from employment, except for midwifery. Pazaro said, ruefully, �They haven�t changed at all.�
...
Some villagers believe that they possess a powerful cultural resource to wage that struggle: Islam itself. �The Taliban are saying women cannot go outside, but there is actually no Islamic rule like this,� Pazaro told me. �As long as we are covered, we should be allowed.� I asked a leading Helmandi Taliban scholar where in Islam was it stipulated that women cannot go to the market or attend school. He admitted, somewhat chagrined, that this was not an actual Islamic injunction. �It�s the culture in the village, not Islam,� he said. �The people there have these beliefs about women, and we follow them.� Just as Islam offers fairer templates for marriage, divorce, and inheritance than many tribal and village norms, these women hope to marshal their faith�the shared language across their country�s many divides�to carve out greater freedoms.

Hopefully, they yield to what the last of those paragraphs implies; a local-oriented policy that sees the villages' customs left to evolve on their own, rather than via drones.

# ¿ Sep 6, 2021 22:21

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

This thread's talked about Pakistan prior & I didn't see this being discussed in any D&D thread, which is a little wild because it's a fairly significant milestone for a US presidency:

Secret Pakistan Cable Documents U.S. Pressure to Remove Imran

Some choice cuts:

quote:

THE U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT encouraged the Pakistani government in a March 7, 2022, meeting to remove Imran Khan as prime minister over his neutrality on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to a classified Pakistani government document obtained by The Intercept.

...

The text of the Pakistani cable, produced from the meeting by the ambassador and transmitted to Pakistan, has not previously been published. The cable, known internally as a “cypher,” reveals both the carrots and the sticks that the State Department deployed in its push against Khan, promising warmer relations if Khan was removed, and isolation if he was not.
The document, labeled “Secret,” includes an account of the meeting between State Department officials, including Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, and Asad Majeed Khan, who at the time was Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S.

...

In the meeting, according to the document, Lu spoke in forthright terms about Washington’s displeasure with Pakistan’s stance in the conflict. The document quotes Lu saying that “people here and in Europe are quite concerned about why Pakistan is taking such an aggressively neutral position (on Ukraine), if such a position is even possible. It does not seem such a neutral stand to us.” Lu added that he had held internal discussions with the U.S. National Security Council and that “it seems quite clear that this is the Prime Minister’s policy.”

Lu then bluntly raises the issue of a no-confidence vote: “I think if the no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister succeeds, all will be forgiven in Washington because the Russia visit is being looked at as a decision by the Prime Minister,” Lu said, according to the document. “Otherwise,” he continued, “I think it will be tough going ahead.”

Lu warned that if the situation wasn’t resolved, Pakistan would be marginalized by its Western allies. “I cannot tell how this will be seen by Europe but I suspect their reaction will be similar,” Lu said, adding that Khan could face “isolation” by Europe and the U.S. should he remain in office.

...

The discussion concluded, according to the document, with the Pakistani ambassador expressing his hope that the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war would not “impact our bilateral ties.” Lu told him that the damage was real but not fatal, and with Khan gone, the relationship could go back to normal. “I would argue that it has already created a dent in the relationship from our perspective,” Lu said, again raising the “political situation” in Pakistan. “Let us wait for a few days to see whether the political situation changes, which would mean that we would not have a big disagreement about this issue and the dent would go away very quickly. Otherwise, we will have to confront this issue head on and decide how to manage it.”

The day after the meeting, on March 8, Khan’s opponents in Parliament moved forward with a key procedural step toward the no-confidence vote.

...

The State Department has previously and on repeated occasions denied that Lu urged the Pakistani government to oust the prime minister. On April 8, 2022, after Khan alleged there was a cable proving his claim of U.S. interference, State Department spokesperson Jalina Porter was asked about its veracity. “Let me just say very bluntly there is absolutely no truth to these allegations,” Porter said.

...

Khan has not backed off, and the State Department again denied the charge throughout June and July, at least three times in press conferences and again in a speech by a deputy assistant secretary of state for Pakistan, who referred to the claims as “propaganda, misinformation, and disinformation.” On the latest occasion, Miller, the State Department spokesperson, ridiculed the question. “I feel like I need to bring just a sign that I can hold up in response to this question and say that that allegation is not true,” Miller said, laughing and drawing cackles from the press. “I don’t know how many times I can say it. … The United States does not have a position on one political candidate or party versus another in Pakistan or any other country.”

...

In recent months, the military-led government cracked down not just on dissidents but also on suspected leakers inside its own institutions, passing a law last week that authorizes warrantless searches and lengthy jail terms for whistleblowers. Shaken by the public display of support for Khan — expressed in a series of mass protests and riots this May — the military has also enshrined authoritarian powers for itself that drastically reduce civil liberties, criminalize criticism of the military, expand the institution’s already expansive role in the country’s economy, and give military leaders a permanent veto over political and civil affairs.

These sweeping attacks on democracy passed largely unremarked upon by U.S. officials. In late July, the head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Michael Kurilla, visited Pakistan, then issued a statement saying his visit had been focused on “strengthening the military-to-military relations,” while making no mention of the political situation in the country. This summer, Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, attempted to add a measure to the National Defense Authorization Act directing the State Department to examine democratic backsliding in Pakistan, but it was denied a vote on the House floor.

...

The crackdown on Pakistan’s once-rambunctious press has taken a particularly dark turn. Arshad Sharif, a prominent Pakistani journalist who fled the country, was shot to death in Nairobi last October under circumstances that remain disputed. Another well-known journalist, Imran Riaz Khan, was detained by security forces at an airport this May and has not been seen since. Both had been reporting on the secret cable, which has taken on nearly mythical status in Pakistan, and had been among a handful of journalists briefed on its contents before Khan’s ouster. These attacks on the press have created a climate of fear that has made reporting on the document by reporters and institutions inside Pakistan effectively impossible.

...

Pakistan’s foreign policy has changed significantly since Khan’s removal, with Pakistan tilting more clearly toward the U.S. and European side in the Ukraine conflict. Abandoning its posture of neutrality, Pakistan has now emerged as a supplier of arms to the Ukrainian military; images of Pakistan-produced shells and ammunition regularly turn up on battlefield footage. In an interview earlier this year, a European Union official confirmed Pakistani military backing to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s foreign minister traveled to Pakistan this July in a visit widely presumed to be about military cooperation, but publicly described as focusing on trade, education, and environmental issues.

This realignment toward the U.S. has appeared to provide dividends to the Pakistani military. On August 3, a Pakistani newspaper reported that Parliament had approved the signing of a defense pact with the U.S. covering “joint exercises, operations, training, basing and equipment.” The agreement was intended to replace a previous 15-year deal between the two countries that expired in 2020.

...

It is not clear what happened in Pakistan-U.S. communications during the weeks that followed the meeting reported in the cable. By the following month, however, the political winds had shifted. On April 10, Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote.

...

The disclosure of the full body of the cable, over a year after Khan was deposed and following his arrest, will finally allow the competing claims to be evaluated. On balance, the text of the cypher strongly suggests that the U.S. encouraged Khan’s removal. According to the cable, while Lu did not directly order Khan to be taken out of office, he said that Pakistan would suffer severe consequences, including international isolation, if Khan were to stay on as prime minister, while simultaneously hinting at rewards for his removal. The remarks appear to have been taken as a signal for the Pakistani military to act.

Some direct cable cuts (besides what was addressed above):

quote:

Don further commented that it seemed that the Prime Minister’s visit to Moscow was planned during the Beijing Olympics and there was an attempt by the Prime Minister to meet Putin which was not successful and then this idea was hatched that he would go to Moscow.

I told Don that this was a completely misinformed and wrong perception. The visit to Moscow had been in the works for at least few years and was the result of a deliberative institutional process. I stressed that when the Prime Minister was flying to Moscow, Russian invasion of Ukraine had not started and there was still hope for a peaceful resolution.

I also told Don that Pakistan was worried of how the Ukraine crisis would play out in the context of Afghanistan. We had paid a very high price due to the long-term impact of this conflict. Our priority was to have peace and stability in Afghanistan, for which it was imperative to have cooperation and coordination with all major powers, including Russia. From this perspective as well, keeping the channels of communication open was essential. This factor was also dictating our position on the Ukraine crisis. On my reference to the upcoming Extended Troika meeting in Beijing, Don replied that there were still ongoing discussions in Washington on whether the U.S. should attend the Extended Troika meeting or the upcoming Antalya meeting on Afghanistan with Russian representatives in attendance, as the U.S. focus right now was to discuss only Ukraine with Russia. I replied that this was exactly what we were afraid of. We did not want the Ukraine crisis to divert focus away from Afghanistan. Don did not comment.

...

I said that over the past one year, we had been consistently sensing reluctance on the part of the U.S. leadership to engage with our leadership. This reluctance had created a perception in Pakistan that we were being ignored and even taken for granted. There was also a feeling that while the U.S. expected Pakistan’s support on all issues that were important to the U.S., it did not reciprocate and we do not see much U.S. support on issues of concern for Pakistan, particularly on Kashmir. I said that it was extremely important to have functioning channels of communication at the highest level to remove such perception. I also said that we were surprised that if our position on the Ukraine crisis was so important for the U.S., why the U.S. had not engaged with us at the top leadership level prior to the Moscow visit and even when the UN was scheduled to vote. (The State Department had raised it at the DCM level.) Pakistan valued continued high-level engagement and for this reason the Foreign Minister sought to speak with Secretary Blinken to personally explain Pakistan’s position and perspective on the Ukraine crisis. The call has not materialized yet. Don replied that the thinking in Washington was that given the current political turmoil in Pakistan, this was not the right time for such engagement and it could wait till the political situation in Pakistan settled down.

...

I expressed the hope that the issue of the Prime Minister’s visit to Russia will not impact our bilateral ties. Don replied that “I would argue that it has already created a dent in the relationship from our perspective. Let us wait for a few days to see whether the political situation changes, which would mean that we would not have a big disagreement about this issue and the dent would go away very quickly. Otherwise, we will have to confront this issue head on and decide how to manage it.”

On one hand, it's not as much as the U.S. has done in the past (seems like more of an Egypt situation; we're not going to intervene, but it sure would be nice if this guy was ousted, we might even be willing to ignore an oppressive military junta!), and it's a fairly crazy dichotomy between admonishing a consistent ally for the act of seeing other world leaders, and complete radio silence on the extremely unpopular coup.

Also some comedy in that it seems like US diplomacy really does have nothing left beyond threatening sanctions.

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Aug 10, 2023

# ¿ Aug 10, 2023 00:47

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Every opportunistic country seeks to expand, we (the USA) didn't just fall rear end-first into 750 overseas military bases, after all. The answer to that has typically been mutual alliances between countries not that interested in eating each other, or vassal status.

Azerbaijan isn't a threat to Turkey, and the other neighbors are Iran, Iraq, Georgia, and Russia. We (the west) are entirely OK with Azerbaijan starting poo poo with those guys, if they do.

# ¿ Sep 9, 2023 17:02

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

I want to say there were rumors of Kadyrov dying earlier in the war, and it ended up not being true.

If Azerbaijan is serious about taking Armenia/a massive chunk of Armenian territory, this is objectively their best time to get on with that, seeing as their security guarantor is locked up in a war that won't be ending until late 2024 at the soonest.

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 10:54 on Sep 17, 2023

# ¿ Sep 17, 2023 10:48

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Ethnic Armenians accept Russia ceasefire plan after Azerbaijan offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh

quote:

The ceasefire was due to begin at 1 p.m. local time (5 a.m. ET) Wednesday, Nagorno-Karabakh’s presidential office announced.

“An agreement was reached on the withdrawal of the remaining units and servicemen of the armed forces of Armenia from the deployment zone of the Russian peacekeeping troops, the dissolution and complete disarmament of the armed formations,” it said in a statement.

Azerbaijan’s defense ministry said it had agreed to suspend its operation, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Azerbaijan said officials would meet representatives of the Armenian community in Nagorno-Karabakh on Thursday in the city of Yevlakh, “to discuss reintegration issues under the constitution and laws of Azerbaijan.”

# ¿ Sep 20, 2023 14:04

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Last I checked, Yemen is signaling Israel-related boats to turn around or dock at Yemen, and if they don't that's when they attack.

At this point I feel like anyone who isn't heeding those calls is willingly entering a "What are you gonna do, stab me?" situation.

# ¿ Dec 17, 2023 19:30

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Ikasuhito posted:

Not try to hurt people? Again someone being a dick does not give you the right to assault and kidnap unconnected strangers.

I feel like genocide is a bit more than 'being a dick.'

Again, from what I've read Yemen has sent warning calls to the ships they've hit. You're making it sound like they're randomly murdering fishermen.

# ¿ Dec 17, 2023 20:31

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

poor waif posted:

Just a few more dead civilians will resolve this conflict, just like it has in every other conflict. After all, we said we'd kill them if they proceeded to do their jobs, so we're in the clear.

Economic damage was, in fact, an aspect of ending the last apartheid state's policies, yes. And innocent people have, in fact, died during wars where the cause was just. And those innocent civilians had less warning than "you are shipping goods to an apartheid state, we've lit several ships doing this on fire, gently caress off now or we will light your ship on fire."

# ¿ Dec 17, 2023 20:52

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

poor waif posted:

So is your argument that it's good to target civilians if it causes economic damage to an enemy in a war? Just warn them first and it's all fine?

If said civilian is ferrying supplies to a country committing a genocide, and is told, over radio, "turn around or we will sink your ship", and happily ignores it to chug along, then yes, it is good to make good on that threat.

quote:

Couldn't you justify the murder or genocide of any civilian in the world with that argument?

Only if there's a specific group of people who are all blind, deaf, stupid, amoral, and sailors.

# ¿ Dec 17, 2023 21:16

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

poor waif posted:

So this only relates to shipping? I really don't understand what you're proposing. Civilian sailors are fair game, but not e.g. farmers growing food that might be eaten by a genocidal army? Medical personnel who might operate on a member of the army? A personal finance advisor who might help a member of the army improve their retirement income? A librarian who reads to children of a military?

How many of these examples are operating out of a mobile vessel that can just leave? Is the native homeland of the sailors the middle of the Red Sea?

Like, how exactly do you imagine embargos work? Frown really hard when they get ignored?

quote:

It's fine to kill any civilian if they provide any benefit to an immoral country they live in, as long as you've warned them first?

In the situation where foreign nationals are on a mobile vessel delivering supplies to an ethnosupremacy state? Yes. Hospital in a besieged city worked by natives & residents that can't randomly float away? No.

mlmp08 posted:

In some of these cases, they haven’t been. One was en route to Italy when attacked, FWIW.

They include Israeli-owned ships; IIRC the first ship they hijacked was owned by an Israeli businessman, I can't speak for the Italy-flagged one.

# ¿ Dec 17, 2023 21:48

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Grip it and rip it posted:

Wow if rubes buy into this kind of paper-thin rationalization, imagine how easy it will be to undertake a generations-long campaign of ethnic cleansing and displacement. Just blame the victim and point out how if they had only heeded your very reasonable and totally legitimate calls, they'd still be alive.

This is a good point: if we assume that sailors are natives, boats are countries, and sustaining trade with an ethnosupremacy state is providing lifegiving aid to the injured, then we set a dangerous precedent in embargoing Israel.

# ¿ Dec 21, 2023 00:35

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

quote:

Sounds like they're just attacking targets of opportunity. Which is weird because they seemed so reasonable previously.

'Misinformation’ led to Swan Atlantic being targeted by terrorists, owner claims

quote:

"We note that information provider Marine Traffic has wrongfully claimed that the vessel is managed by an “Israel affiliated company” on their website,” Norwegian shipowner Inventor Chemical Tankers said in a statement.

# ¿ Dec 21, 2023 21:36

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

i fly airplanes posted:

Sounds like a case of blaming the victim.

It's the victim saying that they were misidentified.

# ¿ Dec 22, 2023 00:50

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Saudi Arabia and the UAE already tried that, with US weapons. I doubt this time, with a yet more casualty-averse nation at the helm, splitting its munitions three ways, that the Houthis will be tamed.

I feel like it's a damning indictment of the Mkddle East Thread if "the Houthis will be defeated by superior Western militaries" is the takeaway, after 7 years of just that failing.

# ¿ Dec 22, 2023 01:56

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1740492823353266550

France, Spain, and Italy were announced as members, and have since retracted their support; all three have their own ships performing safety & security drills in the region, so either they don't see a need to endanger themselves in support of Israel because they can protect their own, or they are unofficially participating, and openly supporting a US venture to protect Israel is distinctly radioactive.

Maersk has announced that it will be returning to the Canal, but they don't stipulate when they will be doing so, if they will be handling freight sent to Israel, and stress that their plans are subject to change.

Some ships are turning off their transponders (which, IMO is probably more dangerous; Yemen is going to be suspicious of these ships, and it complicates any rescue attempt). Others are doing the opposite, using their transponders to note that their destination is Not Israel:

As of now traffic to Israel remains barren; all visible ships are either to Jordan, Jordan -> Israel, or Israel ships idling at Eliat.

Rent-A-Cop posted:

They very well may be just launching at spots on a map as indicated by public ship tracking apps, or they may be using local surveillance equipment like drones to locate targets, but the missiles they are firing have no terminal guidance.

To be fair this is 95% of all ordinance used past & present. It's a lot more expensive to glue an iphone to a rocket than to fire one rocket & course-correct for the second.

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Dec 29, 2023

# ¿ Dec 29, 2023 04:13

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

https://twitter.com/Moh_Alhouthi/status/1740805094260564359

Google Translate posted:

As stated, Websites specialized in maritime navigation indicate that several ships are using the ship identification system in a new way. By adding and announcing the phrase “We have no relationship with Israel” when crossing the Red Sea. that Yemeni Armed Forces Which confirms that any ships that are not Israeli and do not head towards occupied Palestinian ports will not be a military target will encourage

This step is for sure Because it is a step that strengthens the confidence of the Yemeni armed forces among these ships that operate clearly and transparently, avoiding the opportunity for American and allied exploitation by leasing and militarizing the sea and disturbing its tranquility. With this step, it continues to sail safely without any obstacles and avoids the trouble of turning around the Cape of Good Hope. This is an easy and inexpensive step.

Houthi seems to endorse the move to write NO CONTACT ISRAEL in their transponders.

# ¿ Dec 30, 2023 20:54

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 11:36

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

In the raid on the Yemeni boat that saw 2 Navy Seals die the US took on 14 hostages; perhaps a hostage exchange of sorts could be devised. America wants cheap trade, Yemen wants America to stop facilitating the mass genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, let's work something out from there.

# ¿ Jan 17, 2024 14:39

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

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