Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Find SA poster Saladin Rising, click "post history"

Can confirm, this works pretty good. :v:

On that note, an update on the Manbij protests over forced conscriptions:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7b747y/manbij_here_the_forced_recruitment_was_abolished/
"Manbij Here facebook page: The forced recruitment was abolished."

https://twitter.com/SaadAlsabr_/status/927568490629705728

quote:

#BREAKING
#Raqqa : #SDF � Asayish � Suspension of compulsory service law until further notice.
#Syria

As I think because there is a great objection from the elders of the tribes of #Raqqa as well.

SDF did what Assad should have done all those years ago and listened to the protesters.

Further news stuff to kick off the hopefully temporary thread:

From Cizire Canton's twitter, November 6, 2017.
SDF forces cleared an ISIS pocket along the Khabur river. Al Busayrah remains a small pocket. The Euphrates makes a nice (if wiggly) border line.

https://twitter.com/SaadAlsabr_/status/927544826563719168

quote:

Video from "al-Omar oilfield" #SDF controlled the area after clashes against #ISIS north #DeirEzzor. @DeirEzzor24

https://twitter.com/CJTFOIR/status/927495535409418245

quote:

Raqqah Civil Council provides supplies to bakeries that sell below cost to Raqqawis in need. Coalition partners enable such initiatives.

A little bit of the "Hearts and Minds" (and Stomachs) part of the rebuilding.

Finally, the present and the future:
https://en.zamanalwsl.net/news/30935.html

quote:

A high-ranking Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) official has told Sputnik Turkiye that the US continues to supply them with arms and has recently delivered 120 trucks loaded with heavy armament and armored vehicles for the Deir ez-Zor operation.

"The US has supplied us with Hummer armored vehicles and heavy armament for the Deir ez-Zor operation, including missiles, infra-red guidance missiles, machine guns, mine throwers, Kalashnikov assault rifles and other ammunition," the SDF source told Sputnik Turkiye on condition of anonymity.

The SDF took 4 villages from ISIS on Monday, 36 km (23 miles) southwest of Deir ez-Zor, local activist told Zaman al-Wasl as regime forces press more advances on the other bank of Euphrates River.

According to the high-ranking official, the armaments and vehicles have been brought from the territory of Northern Iraq through the Semelka checkpoint into Rojava, the territory where the Syrian Kurds live. From there, the trucks with weaponry left for the territories which have been cleaned from Daesh (ISIS) to the north of Deir ez-Zor.

The total number of trucks amounted to 120; the source, however said that they need more.

"We are advancing, our forces need to operate in the areas of combat and we do need armored vehicles. We have lost many fighters who were killed in mortar shelling by Daesh terrorists because they did not have armor protection," he explained.

He further elaborated that Daesh militants use sniper rifles and mine throwers. If SDF fighters had enough of armored vehicles and heavy weaponry, there would have been a lot less victims. However the US officers are there on the ground and have a chance to assess the situation themselves. They promised to meet the demands of SDF in additional armaments, he concluded. (With Sputnik)

Raqqa is done, we're still supplying the SDF. I'm very curious to see if we continue supplying the SDF after ISIS no longer officially holds territory, since that would indicate a bit more of a long-term commitment.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Nov 6, 2017

# ¿ Nov 6, 2017 21:56

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 07:00

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Lote posted:

Edit: I don�t know enough about the foreign politics in the Middle East right now to form an opinion about how dumb the Trump plan for the Middle East is. I assume this is bad. On a scale of smoldering proxy war to all out Middle East war with Israel running around with a hand grenade ala Anchorman, how bad is it?

The "Trump plan for the Middle East" is as follows:
1/2 "Whatever Mattis, the Pentagon, and the local military commanders say"
1/4 "Obama's plan, but with Obama's name scratched out and Trump's penciled in"
1/4 "Trump said something on Twitter"

1 and 2 have worked okay for the "blow up ISIS" strategy, #3 is the big issue. Thusfar, Trump/Trump's tweets played a big part in egging on Saudi Arabia to to blockade Qatar, and as you can see:

FourLeaf posted:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/927673257230327808

He hasn't stopped, if anything it's getting worse.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 03:04

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Squalid posted:

I I just remembered when Trump when bankrupt in the 1990s he had to sell his prized super-yacht to Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal at a loss. 100% he's been resentful ever since and is definitely gloating about the Prince's just come-upance to anyone within earshot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_5KR

We live in the stupidest timeline, so I'm just going to assume you're 100% right and that Trump is gloating out of spite.

Cat Mattress posted:

Sputnik Turkiye though.

Very true, the only reason I'm giving it any credibility is that it was an SDF guy giving an interview to Sputnik Turkiye. The SDF has done interviews with Kremlin mouthpieces before (the SDF's options for available news outlets to talk to is kinda limited), and the articles tend to be more reality-based when they're just repeating what the SDF person tells them. There's nothing in the article that really stands out as being unrealistic other than "infra-red guidance missiles" and I'm assuming that's just translation weirdness from however many languages the article went though before ending up in English.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 03:44

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

CrazyLoon posted:

I do remember, though, how the SDF up and down said they wouldn't let foreign fighters through (made a big show of catching them in other instances before this deal was struck in the city), yet lo and behold they hitched their rides out in droves along with the others. Hell, the whole way of how they handled it (lying to the truck drivers about what they'd be doing, zero escort and no screening of whom ISIS was sending and after they got abused by the ones they were transporting, the drivers don't even get paid or receive it late) should tell you how little the SDF would want the details known.

Coldwar timewarp posted:

USG and SDF has a shitfit when Hezbollah did the same thing at Ansal. Of course.

Correction, it was the Brett McGurk/the coalition who emphasized the "no foreign fighters will escape" thing. This change in attitude popped up after Trump was elected, along with increased strikes and less worry about civilian casualties (three guesses why the attitude change happened, and your first two don't count):

the article posted:

Back in May, US Defence Secretary James Mattis described the fight against IS as a war of �annihilation�.�Our intention is that the foreign fighters do not survive the fight to return home to north Africa, to Europe, to America, to Asia, to Africa. We are not going to allow them to do so,� he said on US television.

https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status/902793111755255808

quote:

Irreconcilable #ISIS terrorists should be killed on the battlefield, not bused across #Syria to the Iraqi border without #Iraq's consent 1/2

https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status/902793167250092032

quote:

Our @coalition will help ensure that these terrorists can never enter #Iraq or escape from what remains of their dwindling "caliphate." 2/2

The SDF have always been more pragmatic/opportunist (for better or worse), so in this case they went against the US line and cut a deal with ISIS:

the article posted:

In light of the BBC investigation, the coalition now admits the part it played in the deal. Some 250 IS fighters were allowed to leave Raqqa, with 3,500 of their family members.

�We didn�t want anyone to leave,� says Col Ryan Dillon, spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, the Western coalition against IS. �But this goes to the heart of our strategy, �by, with and through� local leaders on the ground. It comes down to Syrians � they are the ones fighting and dying, they get to make the decisions regarding operations,� he says.

While a Western officer was present for the negotiations, they didn�t take an �active part� in the discussions. Col Dillon maintains, though, that only four foreign fighters left and they are now in SDF custody.
--
Along the route, many people we spoke to said they heard coalition aircraft, sometimes drones, following the convoy. From the cab of his truck, Abu Fawzi watched as a coalition warplane flew overhead, dropping illumination flares, which lit up the convoy and the road ahead. "When the last of the convoy were about to cross, a US jet flew very low and deployed flares to light up the area. IS fighters shat their pants.� _{I shouldn't find this sentence as funny as I do.}

The coalition now confirms that while it did not have its personnel on the ground, it monitored the convoy from the air.

Past the last SDF checkpoint, inside IS territory - a village between Markada and Al-Souwar - Abu Fawzi reached his destination. His lorry was full of ammunition and IS fighters wanted it hidden.

When he finally made it back to safety, he was asked by the SDF where he�d dumped the goods. �We showed them the location on the map and he marked it so uncle Trump can bomb it later,� he says.

Basically, the coalition "played a part" by respecting the deal the SDF made and not lighting up the convoy midway through the transfer. So yes this makes the US a bunch of hypocritical assholes for complaining when Hezbollah made the same type of deal with ISIS.

Honestly though, I don't think I'd prefer the alternative where the US lit up the convoy and killed a bunch of civilians, so I guess I'll side more with the SDF's deal-making on this one.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Nov 14, 2017

# ¿ Nov 13, 2017 23:39

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Interesting, the plot thickens:
https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/931154011750879233

quote:

SDF says they have high respect for Brig General Talal Silo, but he has 'been under subject to a lot of pressure and extortion by the Turkish state and in some stage has threatened his children in Turkey'

https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/931165431003516928

quote:

English translation of the SDF General Command statement on the disappearance of SDF spokesperson Brig General Talal Silo. Investigation will follow, and results to be announced later.

So part of his defection might have been to ensure the continued safety of his family members. I can definitely understand why he would defect if that was the case.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Nov 16, 2017

# ¿ Nov 16, 2017 17:45

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

New map of Northeast Syria:

We are in the very strange timeline where the pipe dream of the SDF making it all the way to Abu Kamal has become reality. The SAA will take control of the actual town since it's on the western side of the river, but yeah it looks like the Euphrates is going to be the SAA/SDF divider, with small exceptions around Tabqa and Deir Ez-Zor.

A flashback to 3 years ago, and the beginning of this year for comparison:

Also, Mattis gave a glimpse into the post-ISIS strategy:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1371000/hallway-press-gaggle-by-secretary-mattis/

quote:

Q: Could you just talk in general about the way ahead in Syria?

SEC. MATTIS: Yes, sure.

Q: The caliphates coming to an end. That's been the U.S. interest is getting rid of the caliphate and ISIS. So now that they -- they are pretty much coming to an end, the -- the caliphate, what now? Are you going to really work hard on coming up with a new political process for the country or is your interest really more next door to Iraq and you just basically say, if Assad's going to stay in power good luck, see you later? What's -- just talk about the challenges, I guess.

SEC. MATTIS: Yes -- I -- I, yes. As we get to this point, you see in Abu Kamal, the forces are also the Russian's supporting the -- the -- the Syrian regime forces are moving into -- they announced they have taken it, as you know. And I -- we weren't sure they had taken it. Bottom line is, you heard in the statement out of Vietnam about moving to the Geneva process.

And that's been our goal, step into the (inaudible), and the United Nations Coordinated Process in Geneva is the place we want this to go for political reconciliation and a way ahead. So that's our goal right now, to continue until ISIS is extinguished and the caliphate. Hold that -- that condition -- don't -- don't just up and pull it right out and wonder why they come right back up, until the Geneva process can give us a diplomatic solution and a way ahead.

Q: And you think the U.S. troops should stay there until the Geneva process concludes, or should they start moving out, or what?

SEC. MATTIS: Well, I -- yes, I don't want to get into too much detail there. But we're not just going to walk away right now before the Geneva process has cracked. That doesn't mean everyone stays there. That's doesn't mean for certain -- certain troops are leaving. I'm just saying that we're going to condition -- and I've honestly not made those decisions.

We're going to make sure we set the conditions for a diplomatic solution because the refugee -- you know, you need to do something about this mess now. Not just, you know, fight the military part of it and then say good luck on the rest of it. We did it for that -- to support the diplomatic solution.
--
Q: You know, Assad says Iran and Russia were invited into his country, you were never invited in; you're there illegally. What legal standing do you have to -- to you know, be in Syria?

SEC. MATTIS: You know, the U.N. said that ISIS -- basically we can go after ISIS. And we're there to take them out. But that doesn't mean we just walk away and let ISIS 2.0 pop back around? as if we're surprised either. So we got to get the U.N.-brokered effort in Geneva to take this thing forward.

Q: (Inaudible) caliphate comes to an end though.

SEC. MATTIS: It's not, you know -- how do you call them in to someone who already has made it clear, and been clear, that they will continue to attack with small pockets, and that sort of thing.

So, you the enemy hasn't declared their -- their done with the are yet. So, we'll keep fighting them as long as they want to fight.
--
Q: Can -- go back a minute to what you just said about ISIS. You know, if they haven't declared that they're done and you know, so again it comes right to the question. The president has talked about defeating, annihilation, I think, of ISIS. Unless they come out and say, "OK, we're done. We surrender," how do you know when you're done? Are you ever done? What should people be looking for? I mean who...

SEC. MATTIS: Well, first of all they still hold ground in Syria. They still hold ground in Iraq. So first of all, let's not get premature on this thing. You have to destroy the physical caliphate first. You cannot allow them to hold a haven. You saw what happened with Charlie Hebdo and all the others up there, Paris, Brussels, I can go on plus there is the role of the caliphate inspiring people, right.

You see we have a caliphate, we're going to go out and do this in the Philippines or do that in North Africa or something like that. You have to make it very clear it is physically going to be defeated. We are not there yet and it's not like it's over just because we now have cleaned them out of most places. As you know, some have run off in the desert and they come hightailing it back in to areas that have been cleared in Iraq and set off more bombs.

So we're going to have to wait until we get the Iraqi forces up and that they're patrolling the area before -- for example, if you want to see what it looks like, look at east Mosul. It worked there, but this takes time. And so we can't be all impatient. You know, legally -- and this way just, you know, marry your time, we're going to have to make certain that 2.0 doesn't pop right out of the ground.
--
Q: I guess my last question is as secretary of defense, what is your marker when you go to the president and say -- what is your definition when you go to the president and say, "We've defeated ISIS."

SEC. MATTIS: Yes the locals can handle it. That's not to say we don't have Interpol involved with foreign fighters or that we don't go in with advisers from Norway or special forces from Sweden or something like that to help them. We work together on something that translates that to print. But we're out to do is to allow others when you sought -- take a look at it this way, it's probably easier rather than talking in theory, talking practically.

Look at how the Americans enabled the Iraqis to take Mosul, to take Tal Afar, to take Hawija. It permitted the Syrian Democratic Forces to take Tabqa to take Raqqa and move against the Merv [Middle Euphrates River Valley], to help the Philippine military move against Marawi, to help the Afghans to move against the terrorists there, enabling Somali forces to move against the enemy in Somalia. You see how many casualties, for example, would be one measure the locals are taking against these folks versus ours.

I know ours get an awful lot of play, but we haven't noted the -- the French have lost dozens in the Sahel over the years. We've -- and that's just killed, not counting their wounded, so this is by and large going by, with, and through our allies is what we're doing now. If we find a guy in Libya that we want because he was -- we believe part of the effort -- part of the murder of an ambassador, yes, we'll go in and grab him.

But even there we were doing it with the awareness of the -- what exists of the host country government, but by and large, it's by, with, and through our allies, so...

Seems like we're going to be sticking around in North Syria based on how the Geneva talks go (lol, that's a laugh, the Astana talks are where things are actually happening) and also to make sure "ISIS 2.0" doesn't pop up. So, a delightfully open-ended commitment with vague and/or non-existent timetables for drawdown... this feels familiar somehow.

Well I'm sure the SDF is grateful for the continued protection, at least.

# ¿ Nov 18, 2017 22:32

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Interesting:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/933345143574298630

quote:

Syrian Interior Ministry bans religious rituals (prob. aimed at Ashura) in public spaces and roads, punishable with up to 2 years in prison

Probable reasoning:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7erg1w/syrian_interior_ministry_bans_religious_rituals/

reddit posted:

Probably security reasons. These rites attract suicide bombers in the crazy world we live in now.
--
They need a serious deterrent because these rituals attract suicide bombers and the like

# ¿ Nov 22, 2017 20:11

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Volkerball posted:

I think the Arab Spring really shifted the state of international relations because of what was learned during it. Ben Ali, Mubarak, and Gaddafi all had little or no international support, and all of them succumbed to domestic uprisings against them. Assad and Maliki both had alliances with other tyrannical governments that provided cover for them diplomatically and militarily, and both of them remained in power, as a Vice President in Maliki's case. The message seems obvious. If you have some modern military support and a coalition that is willing to back you no matter how transparently brutal you become, you can put down a legitimate revolt and your government can survive in the current international climate. So I do think we will begin to see more dictatorships that feel vulnerable to overthrow seeking to line up with Putin rather than with the US government. Sisi taking that deal would not surprise me a bit, although there's obviously reasons not to, or he would've done it long ago.

This is a really interesting (and depressing) take on the long-term effects of the Arab Spring/Arab Winter. I can't say I disagree with it, and goddamn that doesn't bode well for the future. :smith:

Ardennes posted:

This is a lot of "geopolitical" chit-chat, but it perhaps is useful when discussing the Middle East at this point since it has become the battleground of powers.

At this point you can't really discuss Syria properly without discussing the broader geo-political climate, since nearly every world/great power of note that we've been discussing is involved in Syria in some way. The US and European partners, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China (those lucrative reconstruction contracts), and the allies for all the above. The only notable countries I can think of that aren't involved are Brazil and India, and India tends to stay neutral on just about anything that doesn't directly involve them.

Some good news, people are starting to return to the Raqqa area:
https://twitter.com/ClaudiaAlMina/status/936222591752327169

quote:

SDF allowed people to return to their homes in the Al Tayyar neighborhood, west of Raqqa, after remove all the mines. It's the 2d neighborhood of Raqqa where residents are allowed to return home. Residents appealed to organizations to open a medical center and a school ANHA

Also seen here is a use for twitter's new 280 character limit.

https://twitter.com/DefenseUnits/status/936251724674797568

quote:

[quote]Locals begin returning to #Raqqa's eastern al-Tayar neighbourhood of more than 10 thousand residents after #YPG-led #SDF's mine-clearing operations are over. (Source: @hawarnews)

# ¿ Dec 1, 2017 16:58

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Al-Saqr posted:

he's loyal to himself and his tribe is loyal to him, his tribe also happens to be the republican guard of the army. he's made himself too valuable to not have as an asset to whomever needs it.

This post also applies 100% to Assad, you don't even have to change anything.

# ¿ Dec 3, 2017 03:49

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Volkerball posted:

Lmao

https://twitter.com/alexjrowell/status/937704812770136064

"Hey guys, on a scale of 1 to Trump, how stupid would it be to take credit for firing a missile at Abu Dhabi's nuclear plant?"
"gently caress it, let's find out! Oh, and throw in a plug Iraq and Syria while you're at it."

_{To be fair, there's lots of big-money reconstruction contracts to be had in Syria and Iraq right now.}

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 17:45 on Dec 4, 2017

# ¿ Dec 4, 2017 17:38

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Russian MoD map of Syria, with some relevant information on the south-east Deir Ez-Zor area:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/938782131739795458

quote:

Russian Defence Ministry announces end of Russian Forces mission to destroy IS, group no longer controls any settlements or districts

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7i6xnb/russian_defence_ministry_announces_end_of_russian/
Red area is marked as "units of Eastern Euphrates Tribes".

Close-up map:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/938782543310028801

quote:

IS lost its last bastions on Western Bank of Euphrates, pockets of resistance likely exist & will be dealt with by Syrian Government Forces

Russia's jumping the gun a bit on the "ISIS is done" bandwagon since there's still the Dara'a pocket area near the Golan, the Yarmouk camp suburb in Damascus, the ISIS-HTS fighting near Hama and those "pockets of resistance" (aka whatever desert ISIS still "controls").

# ¿ Dec 7, 2017 23:24

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

The regime's over-reliance on paramilitary groups is continuing to bite them; ISIS attacked regime controlled areas in-between Mayadin and Abu Kamal, and ISIS was able to take back control for a little bit. The knives are already out over whose fault it is:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7k77cb/syria_deirezzor_according_to_a_tiger_forces/
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/942001223288356864

quote:

#Syria #DeirEzZor According to a Tiger Forces Commander you can thank all the losses at the Euphrates front to Liwa al Quds & Fatemiyoun who just straight up suck at defending. Tiger Forces handed over the Areas they captured to them and then they lost most of it days after.

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/942086876068044802

quote:

#Syria #DeirEzZor Post from the Commander of #Tiger_Forces Shaheen Group about the failures of Liwa al Quds & Iranian Fatimiyoun who took over the Areas after Tiger Forces were supposed to begin work @ Idlib & Hama. 17th Armored Divsiion & #SRG & AL-Ridda Forces Took over the Job

# ¿ Dec 17, 2017 05:13

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Achernar posted:

Here's a nice little story that made me a little.

Christmas market opens in Algerian capital

I didn't realize there were so many migrants/refugees in Algeria.

More Christmas :unsmith:

, Christmas has returned to Mosul:
https://twitter.com/AliBaroodi/status/942058394252431360

quote:

Christmas trees & Santa Claus are back to Mosul. You can find them everywhere. It's a nice gesture of peace from Mosulis.
#rebuildmosul

There's a whole bunch of additional photos attached to this tweet.

https://twitter.com/AliBaroodi/status/942065264321028096
This one's kinda striking because it could easily be a photo from any US city, you wouldn't know it's from Mosul without context.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2017 03:51

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Volkerball posted:

To put this back on news instead of lies and deranged conspiracy theories, there's been an interesting turn in Iraq that's got all the political analysts there buzzing. Maliki, who has traditionally spoken about the KRG and their media outlets as Zionists and terrorists, is suddenly buddying up with Barzani. The two are reportedly engaged in under the table talks. It's looking like it's part of an effort to scoop up some Kurdish votes to try and oust Abadi. He just did a big interview with Rudaw, which is really weird. Not sure how many people will be biting given that Barzani's reputation is in the shitter, but it is what it is.

When Nouri al-Maliki suddenly wants to be your friend, you should run far, far away and then take a look at how hard you hosed up to get to that position in the first place. If Barzani actually starts buddying up to Maliki then Barzani's even dumber than I thought he was.

# ¿ Dec 27, 2017 22:34

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Quite a few notable captures of ISIS members happening recently:
https://twitter.com/TomtheBasedCat/status/946514125777141760

quote:

ISIS member Abu Omar was arrested by the ISF

Two articles about the capture of three French ISIS members (Thomas Barnouin, Romain Garnier, and Thomas Collange) by the YPG near Hasakah:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5217873/French-wanted-ISIS-jihadi-CAPTURED-Syria.html

quote:

An ISIS jihadi who is one of France's most wanted after being convicted of running a recruitment network in the country has been arrested in northern Syria, according to French media. More than three French nationals were stopped in the arrests by Kurdish YPG militia on December 17, including Thomas Barnouin, according to French news channel LCI.

Barnouin, 36, was sentenced to five years in prison in 2009 for running a jihadi recruitment network in the southwestern Toulouse region. It is believed he went to Syria in 2014 to join ISIS. He was close to Mohammed Merah, a gunman who killed seven people in the area in 2012, including three Jewish children.

'Several French (nationals) were arrested in northern Syria in the Hassakeh area, near the Iraqi border,' the source said. Two of the other French nationals captured were Romain Garnier, 33, from Vesoul and Thomas Collange.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42502370

quote:

One of France's most-wanted jihadists, Thomas Barnouin, has been captured by Kurdish YPG rebel fighters in Syria, French media report. Barnouin, 36, is believed to be linked to a French jihadist cell that included Mohamed Merah, who murdered seven people in the Toulouse area in 2012. Barnouin was captured about 10 days ago in Hassakeh, north-eastern Syria, with two other French converts to Islam - Romain Garnier and Thomas Collange. They were with so-called Islamic State.

Barnouin is described as a veteran IS member, who had been arrested by Syrian soldiers in 2006 while en route to Iraq with another French jihadist, Sabri Essid. After being handed over to the French authorities, both were jailed for five years in 2009. But after his release in 2014, Barnouin went to fight for IS in Syria, accompanied by his wife and children. A third jihadist was also jailed in France with Barnouin and Essid - Fabien Clain, who claimed the November 2015 Paris attacks in the name of IS.

They were in the so-called "Artigat" jihadist cell, named after a village where an extremist imam, Olivier Correl, gathered militant followers. He is believed to have inspired Mohamed Merah. The French government says about 1,700 French citizens have joined IS ranks in Iraq and Syria since the start of 2014, and 278 of them have been killed. An estimated 302 have returned to France.

The first thing he does when he gets out of prison is to go join ISIS with his wife and children. What an rear end in a top hat. Seriously what the gently caress do you even do about a person like that?

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Dec 29, 2017

# ¿ Dec 29, 2017 20:52

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

The Iron Rose posted:

Gotta be honest this is pretty funny after everyone and their mother was prepared to bitch at the United States for abandoning their Kurdish/SDF allies after the fight against ISIL is "complete." In all honesty, I'm actually fairly surprised that we're ramping up our presence and therefore support in this fashion.

Not the worst move, if only because it's a rare example of us keeping our promises to the local groups we're working with and that makes it easier to deal with other groups in the future.

Brother Friendship posted:

The trick is never to admit the fight against ISIS is "complete"

I'm surprised that we're supporting them because I felt that Trump would dump the Kurds once Raqqa was sacked. Overall I think our interaction with northeast Syria is the one bright spot in an otherwise miserable 21st century of US foreign policy. It's just a question of where it goes from here but, ideally, we have an eye towards the exit.

I just had a bit of a realization reading these posts: this change is a long-term consequence of Trump's election. Originally (under Obama) the plan was to temporarily support the ~~SDF~~ YPG and allied FSA forces against ISIS. (In 2014 they went by :krad:

names like Euphrates Volcano). 2015 saw the taking of Tal Abyad and the formation of the SDF, 2016 saw a whole bunch of further advances, but the underlying assumption was always that US support was temporary, and that some time post-Raqqa when ISIS was no longer a territory-holding entity, the US would end our involvement.

With the election of Trump, the calculus changed. To put it simply, "keep supporting the SDF" has now become the default assumption. The plan of temporary support has started shifting to a plan of permanent support, and there's not really any push-back on this new plan domestically. The reason is that there's nobody to push back: Trump doesn't know a goddamn thing about the Middle East except "the Kurds are the good guys", and pretty much everyone that Trump listens to is either pro-SDF (Mattis, McMaster) or neutral/ignorant of what's going on. Same thing politically, there's not really any reason for your average Democrat or Republican politician to be anti-SDF, so if asked they'll likely be supportive, neutral, or just not have a position at all. (For the purposes of this paragraph, anti-war =/= anti-SDF, and the 2018 NDAA passed by absurd margins anyway, the Senate was 89 - 8 and the House was 356-70.)

The only guys with Trump's ear who would have been anti-SDF are Michael Flynn (he's busy selling himself out and trying not to get thrown in prison forever), and maybe Steve Bannon (isolationism) but lol he's loving gone too, as are a whole bunch of Trump's senior staff.

So that leaves non-domestic entities to try to convince the US to leave Syria and stop supporting the SDF. Turkey's tried for a year now, and they haven't really gotten much; they're going to keep trying, of course. Russia has their port in Tartus and they seem to favor trying to charm the SDF away from the US; Russia also favors negotiations, because they want the war in Syria done now that they've successfully propped up Assad's regime. Checking Iran's power is part of why we're sticking around in North Syria, and Iran's got bigger things to worry about right now now. Assad's still got Idlib, Ghouta, South Syria, the remaining ISIS pockets, and Euphrates Shield to worry about first, and Russia's pushing him to negotiate with the SDF (because again, Russia wants to be done already).

So until something majorly changes either domestically or on the foreign front, it looks like the US is sticking around in North Syria. Re-evaluation will definitely happen in 2021, but who knows what the situation on the ground will look like by then.

# ¿ Dec 31, 2017 02:15

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

The YPG's anti-terror group (the YAT) prevented a really horrible massacre of civilians from happening: https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7o34cw/antiterror_units_yat_dismantled_a_group_of_is_in/
https://twitter.com/claudiaalmina/status/948915345259147264

quote:

Anti-Terror Units (YAT) dismantled a group of IS in the Karama village near Raqqa that was planning an attack in the Mabruka refugee camp.
14 IS terrorists were killed and weapons, ammunition and a car bomb were seized
YPG Press

How hosed up do you have to be to be planning an attack on a refugee camp with loving car bombs?

# ¿ Jan 4, 2018 16:20

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Well this puts a bit of a halt on any warming of Turkish/Syrian and Turkish/Russian relations:
https://twitter.com/HaidHaid22/status/951405909980442624

quote:

It seems that Turkey has finally permitted its Syrian rebel allies to launch a counteroffensive in #Hama and #Idlib. At least 6 Turkish-backed groups are part of the ongoing military operations and some are even using Turkish military equipment.

Turkey is stuck in a very unenviable position here (though they kinda did it to themselves), and I really don't this will do much more than delay the inevitable unless actual Turkish forces start getting involved in the fighting.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2018 18:39

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Kanine posted:

hey im curious about something, what's the consensus on whether assad will roll over and try to assert control again over rojava in the future?

Unknown, and dependent on multiple outside factors at this point.

Assad himself would likely like to take back direct control of the North Syria area, but it's much much lower on his priority list than any rebel-held areas like Idlib, Ghouta, and South Syria. Right now the regime and the SDF have a "de confliction line" set up along the Euphrates that runs from east of Tabqa to basically all the way down to Abu Kamal on the border, and there haven't really been any notable incidents other than both sides jockeying for land around Deir Ez Zor.

The first big outside factor is Russia. Russia has an acceptable working relationship with the SDF in the Afrin area (and even has a small base there, if I recall correctly), and more generally, Putin's goal with Russian intervention in Syria was to shore up Assad's grip on power and protect Russia's warm-water military sea port in Tartus. The port is what Russia truly cares about in Syria, not whether Assad personally controls every inch of the country. In this vein, the SDF being a continued check on Assad's power is acceptable to Russia, since it keeps Assad more dependent and reliant on Russia.

Russia has already started drawing down forces in Syria, as seen by that clip earlier in the page where Russian air support is currently MIA in Idlib. So however much Assad might (or might not) want to go after the SDF, he would likely have to do it without Russian air support, and the SAA is... kinda crappy without Russian air support. (Hell, they're kinda crappy with Russian air support.)

The US's new plan seems to be sticking around in North Syria for the foreseeable future. There was a two-hour senate hearing a couple days ago on the US's continued role in Syria, it's an informative watch, if a bit long: https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/us-policy-in-syria-post-isis-011118

The hearing posted:

>>So what are the conditions by which we bring those troops home? Is it the military defeat of ISIS? Is it the withdrawal of Iranian and Iranian backed forces? Is it free elections and political stability? How do we communicate to our constituents what the end game is for military presence there?

The president, as I noted, is committed to remaining in Syria, to achieve all of our strategic goals there. Now, remaining means in a political, diplomatic, military sense, not based on calendars, but based on assessment of conditions. ["No calendars" is a big giveaway already.] The enduring genuine defeat of ISIS is one of those conditions, stabilization efforts moving forward successfully in the north and northeast in that major piece of Syria is one of those conditions. And one of them is our broader assessment of where the political transition, where the Iranian projection of influence in and through Syria stands. There is no specific calculus for this. There certainly are not hard, quantitative numbers that can be attached.

>>I would argue that you are operating under a flawed presence, which is there is any future for Syria that does not involve a substantial role for Iran. It worries me that you are telling the committee that our military presence in Syria will run so long as all of our conditions are met, including the withdrawal of Iran and Iranian forces.

Senator, what I said is among the assessments we will be making is where broader issues in Syria stand.

>>So what is the functionality of military presence vis-a-vis our non-isis priorities in syria?

Senator, that would have to be provided in a different setting.
//

>>In Senator Murphy's question about seeing where the end is in this, you talked about we have to make sure that all of our strategic goals are accomplished. Can you tell me what those strategic goals are?

They are first and foremost the enduring defeat, elimination of ISIS as a threat not just today but into the future.

>>Let me stop you there because I think everybody who has discussed this believes that ISIS is going to morph into one thing or another over time. And so how do you -- how does this not become an unending war?

Through the next step which is stabilization and a political transformation in Syria, which is the only measure that is going to present exactly what you described. [I love that non answer.] Those are the critical goals for Syria, but the goal with respect to Iran is the progressive constraint, diminishment of Iran's ability to project in and through Syria its maligned behaviors and influence.

>>Could you explain for us what you believe Iran's interests are in Syria, why they're in Syria and what their reasons are for doing what they're doing in Syria?

First and foremost, to have a platform from which they can more aggressively support Hezbollah and the Hezbollah missile challenge, which is both a threat to Israel and also a defensive asset for the regime in Tehran to build a greater and more permanent presence in Syria itself that will endure beyond any transition in regimes so that Iran is in a position to wield influence or threat of influence over regional parties outside of Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia. It's a platform for behaviors not confined to Lebanon.

This is the post-ISIS shift in policy: we're staying in Syria for as long as Iran/Hezbollah is in Syria. Iran/Hezbollah would be very unlikely to leave Syria even if the US wasn't there, and they sure as hell won't leave while the US is sitting around in the north with troops and bases.

So basically, we're never leaving Syria.

# ¿ Jan 14, 2018 23:17

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Ardennes posted:

That is more or less the reason why I think Turkey will probably trend closer to Iran/Russia in the medium term, while Ildib very likely will fall (sooner or later) and Erdogan may be pissed about it, in the long-term US support for the YPG is probably going to take a priority. If the US isn't going to leave it is probably going to continue to disrupt Turkish-US relations since a hostile and decently armed semi-independent Kurdish state is so contrary to what Ankara wants.

On that note, a bonus to the previous post, the US's new line on the SDF-YPG-PKK connection and Turkey:

quote:

>>I wanted to get your sort of big picture forward looking thought about the way we handle a continuing partnership with the Kurds in honor of the work they've done and their place in the next chapter of Syria with this challenge we have with Turkey's suspicion of any partnership that we have with Kurds in northern Syria.

Senator, we very much understand the Turkish government's and security forces concern of the PKK association of many of the elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces. As we deal with stabilization in the north and northeast with the SDF, part of that stabilization is the emergence of a different kind of local based political structure can which cannot be labeled Kurdish in an ethno-centric mix. We see receptivity in how they transition and move beyond what they have been in the past and the associations many of them have had in the past, which Turkey finds so objectionable. Now, that participation of the peoples of the north and northeast of Syria, there's a big swath of population, of assets, both hydro carbon and agricultural and people. They need to be part of the future of Syria. They want to be part of the future of Syria. On this point, there is a coincidence between the secretary general's concerns, Russian concerns and our own, is that how do you see this political transition in the north and northeast take place in a matter that mitigates the Turkish concerns about Kurds qua Kurds. We are very much focused on this but this is a work in progress. But what's good is that the SDF leadership understands it's an issue and are working on it aggressively.
//

>>Shifting in another direction, we've also opened up a genie by supporting Kurdish forces in the region. Does the state department or the pentagon have a plan to ensure that arms provided to Kurdish forces do not end up in the hands of the Kurdistan Workers Party or the PKK, a recognized terrorist organization?

Yes, senator. We have been extremely attentive to that issue. But I will remind that at the time the Kurdish forces, the SDF stepped forward as partners in this fight, they were the only ones to do so. No other state, no other party, despite our offers, were willing to take up this battle. But we fully understand and appreciate the issue of the PKK and the terrorist threat to turkey, to others in the region.

>>And how do you expect turkey to react if arms do end up in the hands of the PKK?

I would expect Turkey will make its own conclusions with respect to its own defense interests, which is why we are as attentive as we are to the issue of weapons provision, re-provision to Kurdish and other elements associated with them in the north.

"Yeah they were the PKK, but they've moved past that. They told us they know it's an issue to Turkey, and they're working on it. Aggressively. Also they were the only ones who worked with us to fight ISIS. And if some US weapons end up with the PKK, eh you guys can handle it yourselves, but we're being careful to make sure that doesn't happen."

So yeah I think you're right, the US has accepted that continued long-term support for the SDF comes at the cost of a pissed-off Turkey flirting with Russia/Iran, and that's an acceptable price to us.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 00:11 on Jan 15, 2018

# ¿ Jan 14, 2018 23:41

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Sinteres posted:

It might be a bad idea for Assad to do this just because it will make Erdogan angry, but otherwise you'd think allowing it would be pretty much win/win. Either the Kurds take losses fighting off a Turkish incursion, preventing Erdogan from expanding his footprint which he'll probably be reluctant to ever retreat from after the war is over, or the YPG takes losses in a failed effort and weakens their position in the rest of the country.

https://twitter.com/VivaRevolt/status/952945826908733441

An update on this:
https://twitter.com/civilwarmap/status/953217987154268160

quote:

Confirmed Information: Syrian Democratic Forces from Cizire and Kobani Cantons are reinforcing Afrin through government held areas

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/953219127715430400

quote:

They are trying to balance the forces between Manbij and Afrin to resist possible attacks by the turkish army

Looks like the regime prefers the YPG/SDF over Euphrates Shield/Turkey. It makes sense: as Sinteres noted this is a win/win for the regime (I doubt Assad really gives a gently caress about pissing off Turkey at this point), the groups under Turkey's control are still rebels (as seen by some of then appearing with Turkish equipment in Idlib), and there's always the old resentment over Hatay province (and a fear of losing more land a la the Golan).

Also, Afrin is not getting direct coalition support if this heats up:
https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/953209035964190720

quote:

.@coalition spokesperson reaction towards possible Turkish attack on Efrin: "Afrin is not located within the Coalition's area of operations"

This isn't a new development, Afrin's always been out of the coalition's area due to lack of access, which is why they've sided more directly with Russia/the regime. That said, who knows what kind of neat toys those Cizire and Kobani forces are bringing with them?

# ¿ Jan 16, 2018 21:10

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Sinteres posted:

Sure seems like something's gotta give around Manbij one way or another.

https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/954379535348322304

Let's see, we've got a gutted State Department run by an oil guy, a looming government shutdown, a president who's delegated our Syria strategy to the military, and US troops in Syria are doing overt patrols where they're regularly fired upon by Turkish-backed forces (NATO ally, what's that?), so regularly in fact that now they've started to return fire.

Gosh there's no way this could end up going badly in the near future.

# ¿ Jan 19, 2018 19:06

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Darkman Fanpage posted:

The operation name for the Turkish offensive in Afrin is Operation Olive Branch

YPG upped their name game too:
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/954726836692553729

quote:

Turkish Forces are officially calling their operation "Operation Olive Branch".

Syrian Democratic Forces are officially calling their operation "Hunting the Wolves"

https://twitter.com/taylieli/status/954724528554430465

quote:

Report: #US Tillerson urgently phone-called #Turkish FM.

ISIS are ever the opportunists, yesterday they attacked the SDF near Deir Ez Zor:
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/954466850062192645

quote:

Islamic State started a big offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces in Hasakah and at the Euphrates river

The offensive is called "Revenge for the virtuous woman"

Fighting continues today:

I honestly have no idea how this is going to turn out, this is one of the few times Turkey's bluster has turned into actual fighting. (Euphrates Shield was the previous time.) The YPG are at a disadvantage, but Turkey's previous efforts in Euphrates Shield were almost embarrassing in how long it took to actually take Al Bab.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Jan 20, 2018

# ¿ Jan 20, 2018 22:01

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Sinteres posted:

France condemned the offensive, and has called for a meeting at the UN, so that's one NATO member with a veto against Turkey.

More countries are starting to condemn the Turkish invasion, and it's an amazing cross section of countries that usually can't agree on what color the sky is:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/955043091303473152

quote:

Egyptian Foreign Ministry expresses its rejection of the Turkish military operation in Afrin, considers it a violation of Syrian sovereignty

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/955075680533807104

quote:

BREAKING: Iran calls for Turkey to 'immediately' stop its offensive in Afrin

Assad, Russia, France, Iran, Egypt...

Erdogan is a uniter! Uniting the entire world against him that is. :shepicide:

# ¿ Jan 21, 2018 19:53

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Throatwarbler posted:

Are there any primary sources for these claims besides pro-gov and pro Kurd twitters

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-turkey-troops-enter-syrian-kurdish-enclave-52498986
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/international/2018/01/the_latest_russia_warned_kurdish_officials_of_turkey_attack

The Associated Press posted:

5:20 p.m.

Iran's official IRNA news agency is reporting that the country's Foreign Ministry has condemned the Turkish assault on the Syrian city of Afrin and expressed its concerns over this operation.

The Sunday report by IRNA quotes the ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi as saying Iran is concerned about ongoing developments in the city of Afrin and following them closely.

Ghasemi called on Turkey to end this offensive operation immediately. "The continuing crisis in Afarin may boost terrorist groups again in the northern parts of Syria."

Ghasemi the international community, especially Syria's neighboring countries, to continue their efforts to reach a peaceful and political settlement.

Turkey's state-run news agency, Anadolu, said Turkey's chief of staff, Gen. Hulusi Akar, discussed the operation with his Iranian counterpart in a telephone conversation on Sunday.

5:10 p.m.
Egypt has condemned Turkey's military offensive in a Syrian Turkish enclave, describing it as a breach of Syria's sovereignty.

In a Sunday statement, Egypt's Foreign Ministry warned that the ongoing operation by Turkish troops and Syrian opposition in the Kurdish enclave of Afrin threatens political negotiations. The Turkish operation is aimed at driving a U.S.-allied Kurdish militia from the region.

The ministry described the assault as "a new violation of Syria's sovereignty."

Egypt has maintained security coordination with Syria during the latter's civil war. Egypt is also at odds with Turkey accusing it of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, outlawed in Egypt, to which deposed Islamist President Mohammed Morsi belongs.

ABC and the Boston Herald both quoting the AP, which says that Iran and Egypt have both condemned Turkey's invasion of Afrin.

# ¿ Jan 21, 2018 22:43

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Sinteres posted:

If this is accurate, it almost seems like it's probably doing the YPG a favor since sending in more guys to get owned by Turkey probably wouldn't help anything. It'll be interesting to see what happens to Manbij though; Russia and the SAA were involved in blocking the TFSA last time they threatened to invade, but they're obviously not on great terms with the SDF these days.

I'm trying to figure out if the statement means "hey if you guys go to Afrin you're on you're own, you can't call in airstrikes or expect artillery support", or if it's a veiled "don't go to Afrin or you risk losing your hold on the Kobani-Cizire area as well", or a third "you can go, but we may not work with you when (if) you come back".

Sinteres posted:

How much of that will be left is still an open question too.

https://twitter.com/OliveBranchOp/status/955788354536296448

If this is legit then Erdogan has completely lost his loving mind and all semblance of reality. Oh yes, a Turkish attack on Kobani will go over just swimmingly with the rest of the world, it's not like Kobani is famous for being a 4 month slog between the YPG and ISIS, and ISIS's first defeat. And the "Turks are the new ISIS" comparisons would write themselves.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Jan 23, 2018

# ¿ Jan 23, 2018 20:27

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Sinteres posted:

It was a mutually beneficial relationship. The YPG didn't have any particular need to go as far south as they did, and clearing out all the Arab territory and capturing the oil fields won't benefit them much if Turkey takes the areas they actually care about, unless getting ethnically cleansed and having all the Kurds moved to those parts of the country (which will still be vulnerable to attack by other neighbors if the US doesn't defend against them forever) is also part of the deal. It's unclear what exactly we offered them to go to Raqqa, but the YPG were dragging their feet for a while on it because of the concern that they needed to save their strength to fight Turkey.

At some point if they don't believe in US guarantees they can always just defect to Assad anyway.

Turns out they were 100% right about that! :suicide:

# ¿ Jan 24, 2018 01:34

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Well, I guess we don't have to worry about how to interpret the Pentagon's statement:
Joe R. Tabet, Pentagon Correspondent for MBN
https://twitter.com/JoeRTabet/status/955876290065850368

quote:

Pentagon spokesperson denies making this statement:

Pentagon: If YPG in Syria moves to Afrin, group will lose US coalition's support

Pentagon never told the YPG they'd lose coalition support if they went to Afrin.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jan 24, 2018

# ¿ Jan 24, 2018 02:51

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Bulgaria's siding against Turkey's Afrin operation:
https://ahvalnews.com/bulgaria-turkey/bulgarian-president-calls-eu-intervention-against-turkish-syria-incursion

quote:

The President of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, has criticised Turkey�s military incursion in the northwest Syrian region of Afrin, the Turkish news site Arti Gercek reported on Wednesday.

Radev spoke about Turkey�s Afrin operation on Jan. 22, exactly a year after he was sworn in as president. He spoke of his concerns about the civilian casualties incurred by Turkey�s attack, which he said could heighten the tensions in Syria and �lead to serious difficulties�.

The responsibility lay with the European Union to intervene on the situation, to avoid the problems flying back to strike the union �like a boomerang�, said the Bulgarian president.

# ¿ Jan 25, 2018 03:16

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/956903913768280065

quote:

#NewsMap
Geolocation proves, #Qorne is 100% back under #YPG control.
Mappers should adjust their maps.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMu8rUub78c
#Afrin

Current map of Afrin:

I'm really surprised the Tal Rifaat salient hasn't come under attack, that's historically been where a lot of the fighting happened.

# ¿ Jan 26, 2018 19:44

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

CherryCola posted:

Remember that the Syrian government still considers Hatay province to be part of Syria. So now Turkey is settling into the Euphrates shield area, and I’m sure they’re thinking they’re going to take Afrin too. Assad being this insane “I’m going to keep all of my territory” dude is probably not going to stand for that for long. Basically the Levant is going to be infinity war.

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/956983824948350977

quote:

The Syrian government gave instructions to all hospitals to receive as a priority any casualties among #Kurds due to Turkish "Olive Branch" military ops against #Afrin

Looks like Assad is continuing to favor the YPG's side over Turkey. It makes perfect sense: take in any YPG casualties, get them patched up, and get them back to Afrin so they can keep bleeding the TFSA. Win-win from Assad's view.

In other news, woo more history destruction:
https://twitter.com/RodiSad/status/957236133221584896

quote:

The Turkish warplanes destroyed the archeological site of Ain Dara and temple yard in Afrin by hitting it with several airstrikes on Friday.
#afrin #efrin

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/957228323427569665

quote:

#Afrin: Video shows #OliveBranch forces capturing a #YPG fighter today.

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7tcgdy/video_shows_olivebranch_forces_capturing_a_ypg/

azyrr, a Turkish user on Reddit posted:

That video is really telling. The Turkish soldiers barely got the guy out of there. The tfsa seem to be hesitant to even hand him over. They had to reassure them many times to get the prisoner.

Imo every tfsa unit must have a Turkish overseer embedded or there�s no guarantee what they will do with prisoners or even civilians.

That guy was scared out of his mind.

Yep, the TFSA are still lovely and unprofessional. This is why Turkish air support isn't the win button you'd expect it to be, you need actual competent ground troops to take and hold territory. Instead Turkey has to babysit a bunch of incompetent mercenaries who can't even be trusted around prisoners or civilians.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Jan 27, 2018

# ¿ Jan 27, 2018 21:13

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

god, we're not even promising to defeat them at this point, just to somehow keep them from winning

Al-Saqr posted:

hey remember when the war was supposed to have been won 16 years ago or even 7 years ago when they finally got OBL? lol.

I seriously have better expectations for Iraq at this point than Afghanistan. At least Iraq managed to get to "we beat ISIS (in a military sense), where do we go from here?"

Afghanistan/the US can't even get to "we beat them in a military sense".

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 04:02 on Jan 28, 2018

# ¿ Jan 28, 2018 03:46

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Finally put my finger on why the news articles about this Strava thing have seemed a little bit odd:
https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/28/16942626/strava-fitness-tracker-heat-map-military-base-internet-of-things-geolocation

quote:

Strava�s map doesn�t necessarily reveal the presence of military installations to the world: Google Maps and public satellite imagery have already done that. But where Google Maps shows the location of buildings and roads, Stava�s map does provide some additional information: it reveals how people are moving along those areas, and how frequently, a potential security threat to personnel.

If this story had come out 2 years ago, the most important part of the story would have been "the US has soldiers and has built military bases in Syria".

We are now at the point where "US soldiers in Syria" is old news; the reason this matters is because some rear end in a top hat could use these maps to track those US soldiers in Syria, which puts them in danger.

Goddamn that normalization happened fast.

# ¿ Jan 29, 2018 02:11

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Willie Tomg posted:

A general throwing up his arms and shouting "well who the gently caress makes the strategy? Me?!?" is one of the more quintessentially post-escalator mental images I can think of.

You now have a small glimpse into the day-to-day routine of James Mattis, who has done and is now doing exactly this.
https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/16/politics/trump-military-troops-afghanistan-mattis/index.html

quote:

Defense Secretary James Mattis announced Thursday that Trump had given him authority over Afghanistan troop levels, a little more than a month after the President had given him control over the number of US soldiers operating in Syria and Iraq. Mattis is expected to send some 3,000 to 5,000 additional troops to Afghanistan.

Former defense officials say civilian oversight of the military is not just an important check in a healthy democracy, it ensures that larger strategic considerations are taken into account -- while others question whether the Trump administration has a broader strategy at all. Former officials also stressed that even if a president delegates some decisions, there's no avoiding the fact that ultimate responsibility rests with the commander-in-chief.
--
Mattis told lawmakers Thursday that the President had delegated him the authority "to turn the numbers up and down as necessary" after months of discussion. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said he wanted to "congratulate the President for having the vision and, quite frankly, good judgment to allow Secretary Mattis in consultation with a very good military leadership team to set the troop levels."
--
Trump's move to loosen the reins on military commanders in Afghanistan follows a similar decision about the generals' decision making authority in Syria and Iraq. In late April, Trump delegated authority to Mattis to set troop levels in the fight against ISIS, a move a senior US defense official said "enables military commanders to become more agile, adaptive and efficient in supporting our partners."

The alternative would involve explaining complicated things to Trump, expecting him to understand them, and trying to make a strategy using that dried up lump of senile grey matter he calls a brain.

Mattis running things works (sort of) until Trump says something that contradicts whatever our tentative "strategy" is. See: Qatar, North Korea, and now Afghanistan/the Taliban.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 01:58 on Jan 30, 2018

# ¿ Jan 30, 2018 01:52

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Sinteres posted:

I'm kind of surprised they haven't just murdered Ocalan himself by now.

In other news, the SAA gobbled up a bunch of villages on the way to Saraqib today, so the Idlib offensive is back on. Russia's providing air support too.

Hmm, if only Turkish forces could do something about that, maybe stop tying up a bunch of TFSA members and let them go fight the SAA.

Nah, better just attack Afrin harder, that's what's really important.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2018 20:41

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Confirmed, Russian pilot is dead, there's pictures and video:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7uzwq6/photo_of_the_killed_russian_pilot/
Link shows a dead body, so click with care.

# ¿ Feb 3, 2018 23:43

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Brown Moses posted:

Someone is sending a poo poo load of ATGMs to Kurdish forces:

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/960125679294713857

That's bad news for Turkish forces, if there's one thing we've learnt in Syria, it's ATGMs are the greatest equaliser.

Well, that lends a bit more credence to this tweet chain:
https://twitter.com/AllyOfTruth/status/959912178223669248

quote:

Well I guess its not THAT special... and to some not THAT surprising...

All info comes from a source I trust 100% and info extremely reliable.

Since #Turkey first threatened #Afrin operation in 2nd half 2017, Jaysh al-Thuwar and friends, located near #Zahraa/#Nubbol near #Aleppo, started buying various kinds of #ATGM's from #NDF, #Hezbollah and other militia stationed in the area.

With prices nearing 10k $ per rocket, large majority of overall ATGM stock present at Nubbol/Zahraa was gradually sold off to #Afrin #SDF in small number bursts (2, 3 rockets) and brought into #SDF-held areas.

The source estimates that minimum amount of ATGM's in hands of #Afrin #SDF and their groups should be atleast 200 if not more, in addition to other ATGMs captured from weapon depot hauls or other combat spoils.

Until start of Olive Branch, ATGMs were stored in a massive weapon depot (location noted but not disclosed).
There is a chance some where destroyed during #Turkey airstrikes and artillery attacks on #Afrin

My source told me more info but is unable to confirm veracity of that, so I am withholding the possibly even more interesting information until further notice.

YPG has been getting as many ATGMs as they can can get their hands on, with their suppliers including Hezbollah and NDF militias. Had Zenki not intercepted that shipment, that would have been even more ATGMs for the YPG.

# ¿ Feb 4, 2018 18:19

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

lollontee posted:

YPG territory next to regime positions is uhh... A mountain. A range of mountain.

Also there's not just the mountains, there's a very specific bit of regime territory next to YPG territory that has two villages named Nubl and Zahraa. In order to cut off Afrin without attacking the regime directly, Turkey would have to go to the west of Nubl and Zahraa.

Here's the thing though, you might recognize the names Nubl and Zahraa because they were sieged by the rebels for years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Nubl_and_Al-Zahraa

(Sidenote, holy poo poo things have changed in 3 years.)

Assad and the SAA would most likely hit the roof if Turkish backed rebels started attacking the YPG areas to the west of Nubl and Zahraa. This is because they know that such an attack could very easily lead to a renewed besieging of Nubl and Zahraa when Nusra and company decide "hey, the TFSA is attacking the west, let's attack that thin SAA salient in the east!".

I'm actually a little surprised the SAA hasn't pushed on Biyanun and Hayyan to make that salient a little less precarious.

E: Some more history:

quote:

After months of rebel siege and continuous reciprocal kidnappings, popular committees in [Nubl and Zahraa] agreed to begin negotiations with Sunni rebels on 27 March 2013. The agreement to negotiate was organised by Kurdish parties from the neighbouring Kurd Dagh region, controlled by Kurdish separatists of the PYD. The talks were to be brokered by Kurds, and several kidnapped individuals had been freed on both sides. Over the following years, the only land route that brought some food and essential goods came from the Kurdish-held town of Afrin, to the north.

PYD helped save the people living in Nubl and Zahraa.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Feb 4, 2018

# ¿ Feb 4, 2018 21:31

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Bohemian Nights posted:

http://news.sol.org.tr/turkish-citizen-detained-criticising-afrin-offensive-bertolt-brechts-poem-174037

"Turkish citizen detained for criticising Afrin offensive with Bertolt Brecht's poem"

cool. cool cool cool. :l

Now how about we have some pure-strain :irony:

from 20 years ago:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2270642.stm

quote:

In 1994, Mr Erdogan became the mayor of Istanbul. Even his critics admit that he did a good job, making Istanbul cleaner and greener - although a decision to ban alcohol in city cafes did not please secularists.

He also won admiration from the many who felt he was not corrupt - unlike many other Turkish politicians. His background and commitment to Islamic values also appeal to most of the devout Muslim Turks who have been alienated by the state.

But his pro-Islamist sympathies earned him a conviction in 1998 for inciting religious hatred.

He had publicly read an Islamic poem including the lines: "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers..." He was sentenced to 10 months in jail, but was freed after four. However, because of his criminal record, he was barred from standing in elections or holding political office.

Parliament last year changed the constitution to allow Mr Erdogan to stand for a parliamentary seat.

I can't even make a joke, Erdogan is literally doing the exact same thing today that the Turkish Government did to him 20 years ago.

# ¿ Feb 6, 2018 21:14

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 07:00

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

The US indirectly let Turkey and the YPG/SDF know where we stand on Turkey's threats toward Manbij:
https://twitter.com/OIRSpox/status/961272837657915392

quote:

Great trip to Manbij today with @CJTFOIR commander, @IIICorps_CG, to see @Coalition members, leaders and partners. �Charlie Mike� to defeat ISIS and keep �em gone. #defeatDaesh

Note that indirectly does not mean unintentionally. This visit and the tweet are a quiet but intentional message to Turkey that attacking Manbij means directly crossing the US.

# ¿ Feb 7, 2018 20:52

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

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