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reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012
the whole region is already permanently destabilized

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reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

the great deceiver posted:

of course they were outmatched, they knew that. i think the "defense" of afrin was a propaganda effort that actually resulted in the ypg looking way less competent. if they had actually been serious about defending afrin from the turks they would have negotiated with the SAA.

It looked to me like they did negotiate with the SAA and the price was deemed unacceptable.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Taintrunner posted:

thanks obama for looking forward and not locking up these war criminals out of the public discourse

he looked forward and noted he didn't want to be locked up for all the war crimes he was eager to commit, no way he was gonna start that train

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012
RIP the kurds

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

dinoputz posted:

https://twitter.com/GuardianUS/status/1076098351551209473

how much changes if the UK & France actualyy were to step up (lol) and increase their numbers in the area? dunno if they have the ability to provide as much air cover but theoretically at least they could step in for a few years until the US can get some adults back in the room? if nothing else they can just offer up some hostages/sacrificial lambs like the US put in Manbij to keep the turks from triggering a bigger diplomatic crisis, hopefully

Adults in the room aren't gonna change anything, realistically the only reason we hadn't ALREADY thrown the Kurds under the bus was because Trump's foreign policy is basically run by the military, who are the ones who actually have to deal with 'okay so we screwed over the the last ten people to be our local allies but you should work with us as our local allies.' As soon as we had an actually functional state department again they'd be going 'Turkey is WAY more important to us in the Kurds.'

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012
There's like 20 different Maoist and hoxhaist Turkish groups in the SDF explicitly practicing for revolt in Turkey, without Rojava keeping them busy they're going to have no reason not to restart activities at home lol

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Look, your whole premise is based on the idea that the United States should be something that it isn't, and you're getting mad at us because we're not doing the proper show of rending our shirts and gnashing our teeth over something everybody knew was coming for years.

Nah. It's not just people going 'yeah this was inevitable' there's a lot of 'actually its good.'

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Fuligin posted:

The idea is that trump may have inadverdently ju-jitsu'd erdogan by recalling are troops before the turks are prepared for anything like an offensive. Considering that the lira is tanking, the officer ranks have been purged, and the last showings of the turkish armed forces were not exactly brilliant, rojava may not be as dooooomed as our histrionic foreign policy apparatus believes, especially if they can come to an understanding with assad. Or maybe not, I dunno.

The idea of turkey sustaining an indefinite occupation against seasoned guerillas seems pretty suspect to me

That's still basically 'thousands die, but also a bunch of them are Turksish soldiers.'

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

steinrokkan posted:

The Turkish army isn't going to suffer any major losses.

Yeah I don't think so either I'm just pointing out that even if things go way worse for Turkey than Afrin did, it's still really really bad for the people northeast Syria.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Muscle Wizard posted:

having troops in this part of the middle east, deployed in the exact manner i want and doing the exact things i want is going to work out great. they also won't murder civilians and rape them and stuff like that because i said so. look at all the other times it worked out like that:

it was working out in this instance already

StashAugustine posted:

also even if turkish invasion would be a terrible idea for turkey is it at all clear that erdogan realizes that?

NO turkish invasion is probably bad for Erdogan, Personally so I'm not sure it really matters whether erdogan realizes that.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Lightning Knight posted:

With the understanding that I don't give a poo poo if Kurds are US allies or not, will Assad actually guarantee the safety of the Kurds or is this theater?

The previous status quo of Assad treatment of the Kurds was at least not actively murderous (much more 'can't use the language, we'll import arabs into that territory') and he presumably has no particular desire for Turkey to grab even more of Syria so they at least have A shared interest.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012
Lol why would anyone ever predict that Kurds would finally get their Kurdistan in exchange for ANYTHING.
The only thing you can ever be certain about in the middle east is the Kurds will get thrown under the bus.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Main Paineframe posted:

What, is he saying that there was a gas attack but that all the sick people were crisis actors? I don't get it at all

One previous framing I saw is there was a missile attack, a lot of people were choking on dust that had been kicked up, then one of the white helmets shouted 'gas' and the entire clinic basically went into a hysteria.

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reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012
Man at this point if the Shammar tribe actually wants to reclaim Jabal Shammar from the Saudis like they officially say they want to they'd probably have a good chance at success if they made a go of it.

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