Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
We won the popular vote by 7 percent last night. Would it be enough to win the electoral college?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Ice Phisherman posted:

Loyalty over competence. That's the Trump way.

And he's all out of competence.

Personally I wonder if Mueller gets his investigation starved of money if we can't just crowdsource the funds for him. I wonder if it would be legal and/or received.

He's already self funded the investigation for years by seizing Manafort's assets.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Silver already publishing 2020 maps

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/

He has the Dems favored on even a neutral map.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Tibalt posted:


Another useful metric is whether they think a first term Representative with no previous political experience is a viable candidate for Speaker, a position that rules through a hazy web of personal rapport, mutual respect, experience, and amassed political favors.

Uh, Henry Clay was elected Speaker of the House as a first term representative and he quickly became the most influential legislator in this country between 1789 and 1860.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Helen Highwater posted:

It's so weird that Congress couldn't find someone who had served at least one term already back in 1789.

He was sworn into office in 1811, twenty two years after the first congress.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Chilichimp posted:

I thought that was stupid too, turns out he just worded it weird. Clay didn't go to congress until 1811.

BUT WHAT HAPPENED THE VERY NEXT YEAR, EH!?!?!?!

How was it worded weird? Henry Clay was absolutely the most influential American politician between the signing of the Constitution and the outbreak of the Civil War.

The War of 1812 happened in large part because of Henry Clay! JFC! Doesn't anyone learn history anymore?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Chilichimp posted:

Because your post made it seem like he was elected speaker in 1789

To people with limited reading comprehension perhaps.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Not a Step posted:

I would wager that only a very small number of people refuse to vote or fake vote to 'stick it to the establishment'. My feelung is that most nonvoters, which is most of the electorate , dont vote because there isnt a point to it. Things continue to get worse no matter who they vote for, and nobody really seems to care about them. Its not that they want you to die, its that they want someone to care about them and thats not really a strong suit of the current Democratic Party. They abandoned labor for Wall Street decades ago and are only now showing signs of crawling back.
Voter turnout in presidential elections has narrowly ranged between 48.9% and 62.77% since 1912. Turnout from 2004 on has been higher than that of the 80s and 90s.

There has not been some mass defection of people to the ranks of nonvoters in our lifetime.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Cerebral Bore posted:

This happens because republican voters know that when they vote GOP, their representatives will broadly do what they want, whereas the first thing Democrats do when they get power is to start making GBS threads on their base and declare that the things the base wants are completely off the table.

The causation is backwards. The Republicans do what their base wants because the base consistently push them to the right in primaries. Just look how far to the right they've moved in the last twenty years. The voters made that happen against the will of the GOP establishment.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Cerebral Bore posted:

Even back in the day when the GOP hadn't openly gone full chud the base still got most of what they wanted. At the very least I can't recall Republican establishment openly telling their base that they're never ever getting something they want, which is routine when the Dem establishment talks to their base. So it it really surprising that republican voters are more loyal?

Also I think you're severely overestimating the reluctance of the GOP establishment to go full white supremacist. It's pretty clear that the only problem they ever had with it was the fear that it'd cost them electorally.



The GOP elite talked up immigration reform that would favor big buisness for decades because that's what big buisness wanted and the GOP is beholden to them. It is what really sank Bush 43s presidency, not Katrina. The base revolted.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Your Taint posted:

How is that at all damage control? If anything it makes it worse because it makes it look like Melania picks random people and demands they be fired by her idiot husband.

I hate when that event pops up in CK2 and my wife randomly demands that I fire my steward, who also happens to be one of my most powerful vassals.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Mustached Demon posted:

Yeah she's as millennial as one thousand empty Applebee's.

I just read that Applebee's was on it's way back up, riding cheap comfort food.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Petr posted:

So did John Brown. Good thing victory isn't predestined.

John Brown won

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSSn3NddwFQ

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Ague Proof posted:



The ad where Bigfoot hunts a Republican hiding from his constituents? The Democrat won by a lot.

What...?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Ague Proof posted:

Wohl speaks out
We explained to Wohl that many people are suggesting that he may have set Avenatti up in some way. Wohl then said something that was rather interesting:

Yeah but it was his live-in girlfriend. So Ive been running his live-in girlfriend as some kind of manchurian candidate for 6/7 months?

This is quite an odd statement, given that we are unaware of any reports claiming that the woman accuser had been living with Avenatti for at least 6-7 months. After informing Wohl that we are completely unaware of the accuser having been a live-in girlfriend who had been living with Avenatti for over half a year, he seemed to backtrack a bit.

It could be someone else, you are right. Thats interesting to point out, but anyway, OK, well thats that on that story."

I would legitimately be incredibly impressed if it turned out he has been running Avenatti's live in girlfriend has some kind of Manchurian candidate for six or seven months. That's crazy and sounds way outside of Whol's competency zone (lol).

Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 06:11 on Nov 19, 2018

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

nine-gear crow posted:

The Vice President is literally just the Backup President in case anything happens to the guy at the top. In theory they should basically be as similar as possible to ensure a smooth transition and continuity of government should the unthinkable happen. But because the unthinkable has become increasingly unlikely as time has progressed, the political norm has become to pick a Veep that contrasts and enhanced the POTUS in various ways because there's essentially a 0% chance that they will ever need to become President themselves.

With the expansion of the bueracracy, it is beinifical to have the VP be someone you can trust with running various taskforces and delegating things to. Gore, Cheney and Biden all did a hell of a lot more work than previous VPs did.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Lightning Knight posted:

The Trump campaign was basically the monkeys on typewriters of espionage, they're so stupid and incompetent that it accidentally looks complicated and deep.
Ooh...I like this. I like this a lot.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Hmm... :thunk:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064727585786081282

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Looks like Love lost after all. The Dem floor in the House is + 39

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064688106945880064

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Stereotype posted:

This always irks me in regards to Space-X as well. People keep holding them up as an example of the free market doing what the government couldnt, but really they just sucked a ton of money out of NASA to blow up a ton of soviet rockets they bought for cheap.

The landing thing was cool, but unless they can show that it actually saves any money then its also a pointless PR stunt.

Ill maybe change my mind if they can get a human-certified launch vehicle, but thats probably five years out at minimum.

This is ridiculous. Even disregarding any beinifits of reusable technology, SpaceX has cut the price of getting to orbit by 75-80%.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
It's really good, but I still think this one has it in the bag. It's like a 19th century painting made flesh

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/mississippi-senate-runoff-election-results/

quote:

Two-thirds of the precincts are now in from Warren County (Vicksburg), where Espy leads 55 to 45 percent. The combined GOP vote won 51 to 49 percent on Nov. 6.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Needle!

quote:


Nate Silver8:51 PM


WE. NEED. A. NEEDLE.

bc
Geoffrey Skelley8:51 PM


Definitely, Leah. Now up to almost half of DeSoto County precincts reporting, Hyde-Smithfs lead still at only six points (53 to 47 percent) compared to the commanding 30-point GOP edge there on Nov. 6.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Typo posted:

no literally every single country in europe in 1914 actively made a decision to go to war, literally everyone had a chance to back off but they didn't.

That's not true, in Germany the military brass dragged the civilian governments into a general war, basically against their will.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Typo posted:

if russia wants to conquer the baltic states they do it in under a month no question

not even the US can air/sea lift enough the 100k men and equipment into the region to defend it before russia takes it

it's just that putin 1) doesn't actually care about the baltics 2) a NATO counter attack is prob at least 50% to happen and he doesn't want that

If the Russians invade the Baltics, Poland will immediately intervene and that would eventualy cause Germany to be sucked in.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

BabyFur Denny posted:

Yeah but what would Poland alone be able to do against Russia?

The Russian Army is not exactly the Red Army today. Poland's military is well funded and would be operating on close logistical lines.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Comrade Fakename posted:

The fact that UFO sightings didnt massively increase once everyone started carrying cameras around with them at all times pretty much confirms that alien UFOs never existed.

Eh... if there were actual aliens visiting, wouldn't they just be more careful, so as to avoid being photographed?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Talk about stereotypes
Link (Wash Post)

quote:

The Confederacy was built on slavery. How can so many Southern whites still believe otherwise?


quote:

The couple, childless together, has seven cats, most of them named for rebel generals or noted Confederate nurses but not Prissy, Billies favorite, a black-over-white tuxedo cat wandering in our vicinity just then. Prissy is named for the slave girl in Gone With the Wind who, in the 1939 film, cries, Lordy I dont know nothin bout birthin babies, before an enraged Scarlett OHara belts her upside the head.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

eke out posted:

just a thought but tomorrow IS grand jury friday

still a possibility Cohen isn't the only bad news

What makes this Friday grand jury day? Or are all Friday's grand jury day?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Crain posted:

How this terrified a person hasn't decided to go scorched earth on the DoJ yet baffles me. His handlers have to be keep a TON of poo poo quiet, I just cannot comprehend this dude having any sort of restraint.

They just ignore most of his unwise/illegal orders and he's too big a coward to say on twitter that his minions won't do what he says.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Gatts posted:

Can someone boil this down for me cause my mind is not wanting to grasp what's going on besides "Trump was gonna meet with Putin and maybe secure the Presidency after Cleveland." and Cohen basically sang like a Canary...am I wrong cause I don't know why...I'm not processing this...

What does Cleveland have to do with anything?

Besides being the only president creepier than Trump?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Groovelord Neato posted:

this is unlikely considering he wouldn't have invaded if he thought we'd respond.

Thinking the US will disaprove and thinking they will respond militarily are two different things.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Just read this article, really good. Too bad it ain't happening anytime soon. :(

https://twitter.com/JohnDingell/status/1069963009521520641

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

enraged_camel posted:

How do you even abolish the Senate?

I mean, I know the answer is "violently", but I'm asking more in terms of a step-by-step.

I have a strong feeling it would require a Constitutional amendment. Right?

Worse, it would require an amendment that was unanimously approved, because it is unconstitutional to deprive a state of their equal representation in the senate without their consent.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Peacoffee posted:

The texture of Rhode Island is remarkably a mixture of rain, season 1 family guy, and hp lovecraft.

It doesn't rain that much

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
I do like that the Post invented a new pinocchio level just for Trump though.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Lightning Knight posted:

Even the NeverTrumpers would rather have Trump rubber-stamp policy than a Dem president in 2020. Its moral posturing that conveniently leaves out I like this because it guarantees an R president.
He was a consultant for Jones senate run in Alabama. Hardly just moral posturing on his part.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

pseudanonymous posted:

I don't. He's a liar. They should just say "he's lying". All this doublespeak to get around the fact he blatantly lies all the loving time is the media being complicit in those lies.

It's basically "this guy is willfully and repeatedly lying "

https://www.google.co.kr/amp/s/www....ver-over-again/

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

VitalSigns posted:

Yeah dude we were just about to win in Vietnam Ira Afghanistan too, so close!

drat hippies this is all their fault, what they told us not to do it in the first place and we're in this mess because we listened to people like Bolton instead, too late now!

We let millions of Vietnamese come flee to the USA (that Trump is now trying to deport). Trump isn't going to let any of these people come with us. That's the problem.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Lightning Knight posted:

Would an American withdraw from South Korea materially affect things? We have 50,000 troops there last I checked, while South Korea has a much larger force that is capable of fighting NK on its own if need be, and relations between the Koreas have marginally improved since Trump took office, since he's too incompetent to meddle properly. I'm sure it would look bad but it's not clear to me it would actually be bad in the long term for Korea.

The result would probably a three way nuclear arms race between the ROK, PRC and Japan, so I'm going to say that would be bad.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply