USNEWS: Put a ratty-looking paperclip on the stimulus bill

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USNEWS: Put a ratty-looking paperclip on the stimulus bill

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Thanks for the thread PPJ!

To start it off, let's talk the 2018 midterms.

First, turnout was way up. Like "best in over 100 years" up.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1061351586579005441

The Dems did well in a lot of states, but failed to take the Senate. Nate Silver made a map illustrating how that looks in terms of House popular vote.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061657448719749120

Nate Cohn notices that the Florida GOP may have found a message that speaks to hispanics or otherwise not done well among their base, making the state a tough one for Dems in 2020.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061679711942774784

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061680107411161088

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061681553451958273

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061685522567979008

# ¿ Nov 11, 2018 19:24

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 22:28

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

VH4Ever posted:

Can someone remind me (and the thread) what happens to the McCain seat? Kyl has it now but isn't there going to be a special election for it soon anyway? The term expires in 2022 IIRC right? I wonder what this means for that seat too. Two Dem AZ Senators would be bonkers.

I believe Kyl is currently the caretaker Senator until the election for it in 2020 but there are rumors he will resign at the start of the year so Governor Ducey can appoint McSally (if she loses) so she has incumbency advantage in 2020.

But there is no incumbency advantage for appointed incumbents so I'm not sure what this will accomplish. She also will still need to win a GOP primary for it.

After that I do believer there is a "normal" Senate election for it in 2022.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2018 19:34

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Not all NYT opeds are horrible, just 99.999999... %

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1061647085647343616

Between this, we also need to grant DC and PR statehood, ensure all states have early voting, paper ballots, and vote by mail with no lovely signature matching laws.

What else am I missing?

Oh yeah, bipartisan commissions to draw district maps, and an end to partisan gerrymandering.

I'm sure there's more electoral changes needed, but that would be a great start.

Funny enough, we have a thread about electoral reform!

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3874142

# ¿ Nov 12, 2018 03:57

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Stickman posted:

That's huge. If Scott secretly allowed email/fax voting in Republican-margin districts under the auspices of helping hurricane victims but didn't allow email/fax voting statewide, that's an unprecedented level of structural partisan favoritism (well, unprecedented since the VRA).

Hey, they might pass it...

... after stripping out all the text and replacing it with tax cuts and an ACA repeal. Hey Democrats, why are you voting against your own bill?

The big question is how many of these e-mail votes did they count? A few hundred probably won't change much.

It's also astounding that they allowed it considering vote by e-mail is specifically banned by Florida law. That only one county was allowed it makes any lawsuit against it easy to win too.

# ¿ Nov 12, 2018 19:43

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

evilweasel posted:

oopsie

https://twitter.com/jedshug/status/1062742285815869440

I'm not a lawyer, is this a serious enough oopsie that it completely undermines what DOJ argued? I recall the ACA case was also based on a completely laughable legal argument and yet it still got heard and had the Medicaid expansion get thrown out.

The right wing doesn't seem to care about whether their arguments make sense in court.

# ¿ Nov 14, 2018 17:39

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

paperwind posted:

So how often is it that the entire country is told to avoid eating something regardless of where it came from? This is about an extreme a food safety warning as I think I've ever seen.

https://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1064976806401454080

hot take: maybe we should pay agriculture employees enough and give them reasonable working hours so they don't have to poo poo in the fields just to make quota.

That was ultimately the reason for the last romaine lettuce contamination outbreak right?

# ¿ Nov 20, 2018 22:47

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

JasonV posted:

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1065001427968434176

Lindsey is pissed all his bootlicking of Trump didn't get him the AG post.

# ¿ Nov 20, 2018 23:17

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1065006131364405248

Trump has submitted his answers to Mueller's questions.

How likely is it he perjured even with Whitiker trying to tip him off and having to write out his responses instead of an in-person interview?

# ¿ Nov 20, 2018 23:21

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Sanguinia posted:

Remember the "no blue wave," BS on election night, including from inside this very forum? Fun times. If only there was a ghost of a chance in MS or FL had gone the other way to really put the icing on the cake.

It's funny, because I really expected the Rs to be all-in on how successful Kavanaugh was for them because of the wins in MO and ND since those senators refusing Beerman was so high-profile and because the only Dem that backed him survived the Blue Dog Slaughter, but there's been barely a peep on that front.

To be fair, Tester also voted against him and survived.

Winning MS next week would be amazing because the Rs would only net 1 seat in the Senate despite having the best map they're ever going to have.

# ¿ Nov 21, 2018 19:51

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

The Glumslinger posted:

https://twitter.com/NathanBomey/status/1067086381623713792

I remember when I thought the Volt was the way of the future for cars in America. It deserves some recognition for being one of the first plug-in hybrids and I'm sad about this because I was planning on getting a Volt for my next car as I already have a Cruze and love it.

With Ford already cutting all it's small cars it's going to be hilarious when the economy tanks and gas prices go up and all the US automakers are dead like in 2008 because they gambled too much on big cars.

# ¿ Nov 26, 2018 19:43

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1067123958170800129

Another poll had it +10. This...might actually be winnable tomorrow.

Not easily winnable but if the race is somewhere between 10 and 5 right now I can see a path to victory where Republicans are bummed and stay home and Dems are energized.

# ¿ Nov 26, 2018 22:34

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

knox_harrington posted:

Whoa

https://mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1067448517768171521

https://mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1067464748617351169

These committee hearings sound wild and the Canadian MPs sound pissed. Does this all end with Facebook being banned in Canada?

# ¿ Nov 27, 2018 18:23

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Barry Foster posted:

Nationalise that poo poo, IMO.

No direct government control, of course, but bring it into public ownership.

EDIT - although I suppose that's an absolutely impossible demand in the USA

Government-owned social media companies freak me out even more than privately-owned ones. Imagine what Trump could do if he had access to everything Facebook has.

# ¿ Nov 27, 2018 19:54

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1069968682279936000

this is a very pro-read article. nate's summary:

quote:

I want to remind you that our forecasts are probabilistic. Not only are our forecasts for individual races probabilistic, but our model assumes that the errors in the forecasts are correlated across races � that is, if one party�s chances were overrated in one race, they�d likely be overrated in many or all races. Because errors are correlated, we�re going to have better years and worse ones in terms of �calling� races correctly. This year was one of the better years � maybe the best we�ve ever had � but it�s still just one year. In the long run, we want our forecasts to be accurate, but we also want our probabilities to be well-calibrated, meaning that, for instance, 80 percent favorites win about 80 percent of the time.

I say that because we�ve frequently argued that our 2016 forecasts did a good job because they gave President Trump a considerably higher chance than the conventional wisdom did and because our probabilities were well-calibrated. But Trump did win several key states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) in which he was an underdog, and he was an underdog in the Electoral College overall. So 2016 was good from a calibration perspective but middling from an accuracy (calling races correctly) perspective. This year was sort of the opposite: terrific from an accuracy perspective, but actually somewhat problematic from a calibration perspective because not enough underdogs won.

# ¿ Dec 4, 2018 21:21

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Acebuckeye13 posted:

Arguably Dirty Harry and absolutely 24 did irreparable damage to the American psyche.

24 was a symptom, not the disease.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P52G4Kyq5M

# ¿ Dec 11, 2018 15:53

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

This is a "holy poo poo" level story. Multiple FinCEN employees are compromised/active Russian agents.

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1075810783957803008

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1075811788346806272

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1075811875470893056

quote:

Russia�s financial crimes agency, whose second-in-command is a former KGB officer and schoolmate of President Vladimir Putin, also asked the Americans for documents on executives from two prominent Jewish groups, the Anti-Defamation League and the National Council of Jewish Women, as well as Kremlin opponents living abroad in London and Kiev.

quote:

Officials at FinCEN said they reported the use of the back channel to Treasury�s counterterrorism unit and security office, and requested an investigation. They said it was a breach of protocol and that it exposed the Treasury to potential hackers because the Russian messages contained attachments � a common way for intruders to worm inside an organization�s servers.

the Russians almost certainly planted worms/viruses/hacks etc. into the Treasury Dept's network as well, possibly to destroy any records of actions against Trump or other Russian interests. This is a huge story.

axeil fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Dec 20, 2018

# ¿ Dec 20, 2018 19:14

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

axeil posted:

This is a "holy poo poo" level story. Multiple FinCEN employees are compromised/active Russian agents.

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1075810783957803008

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1075811788346806272

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1075811875470893056

the Russians almost certainly planted worms/viruses/hacks etc. into the Treasury Dept's network as well, possibly to destroy any records of actions against Trump or other Russian interests. This is a huge story.

Six sources told BuzzFeed News that at least two FinCEN analysts were reported to Treasury�s inspector general over suspicions that they might have been working against the interests of the US.

One analyst was a man with close family ties to Ukraine. He was tracking the finances of corrupt foreign officials in a job that requires a security clearance. Four sources said they were told by security officials at the agency that the analyst turned out not to have one. He had applied for clearance during his previous posting at the State Department, they were told, but was denied it because of suspicious contacts with foreigners. The sources said the man also had unusual contacts with his colleagues both before and after he was fired. Shortly after he was escorted out of FinCEN early last year, he showed up outside a co-worker�s apartment building late at night and asked questions about investigations and internal Treasury databases. The co-worker reported the encounter to supervisors.

The man�s uncleared access to sensitive information was considered such a major national security breach that FinCEN was stripped of its authority to grant security clearances for some time, according to these four sources. FinCEN�s security chief was later placed on administrative leave.

I'm not being hyperbolic, these guys were literally acting as spies. Good god.

# ¿ Dec 20, 2018 19:40

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

axeil posted:

More

I'm not being hyperbolic, these guys were literally acting as spies. Good god.

even more, finCEN violated all the whistleblower protections the government is required to follow.

quote:

At least 10 FinCEN employees have filed formal whistleblower complaints about the department. The whistleblowers say they tried multiple times to raise concerns about issues they believed threatened national security, but that they faced retaliation instead of being heeded. Some of FinCEN�s top officials quit in anger. One senior adviser has been arrested and accused of releasing financial records to a journalist.

That adviser, a whistleblower named Natalie Mayflower Edwards first sounded the alarm in the summer of 2016. She went on to speak with six different congressional committee staffers to air her concerns. In July and August 2018, she met again with staffers of one of the Senate committees investigating Russian interference during the presidential campaign. In those meetings, she told the staffers that FinCEN withheld documents revealing suspicious financial transactions of Trump associates that the committee had requested.

Along with a colleague, Edwards wrote a letter last year to six congressional oversight committees. In it, the analysts included documentary evidence and Edwards wrote, �I have brought forward lawful documented evidential disclosures of violations of law, rule, and regulations, gross mismanagement, gross waste of funds, abuse of authority, and substantial and specific danger to public safety and I have NOT been protected against reprisal.�

Edwards added that she reported the �wrongdoing� to her supervisor, the inspector general, Treasury�s general counsel, Treasury security personnel, and the counterterrorism unit, requesting an internal investigation, as well as alerting the Office of Special Counsel, the federal government agency that deals with whistleblower complaints. Despite her disclosures, she wrote, �I continue to be retaliated against.�

�May Edwards took it on herself to try and protect everyone here as well as national security,� a senior FinCEN official told BuzzFeed News. �Nobody listened to her or some of the other brave whistleblowers who came forward. They�re all now paying a high price.�

and all the initial russian cooperation was just a smokescreen to get info on their enemies. the article doesn't say it, but i'm curious if the people they wanted info on are the same people who've turned up dead in the past 2 years.

quote:

Senior officials from the terror unit had multiple meetings with top officials at Rosfinmonitoring to discuss jointly tracking the financing of ISIS. Among the negotiators was the Russian financial watchdog�s second-in-command, Yuri Korotky. Korotky went to a KGB finishing school the same year that Putin finished his training there, and worked for its successor, the FSB, after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Korotky and other Russian officials proposed that Rosfinmonitoring trade information directly with the US as part of their joint effort to defeat ISIS. But almost immediately, the Russians reneged on their end of the bargain.

Rosfinmonitoring was slow to share data. It sought ways to work around FinCEN, the Treasury office that had sole access to the data it wanted, and whose analysts were skeptical of sharing information directly with Russia. By the summer, Rosfinmonitoring had made a series of requests about individuals and companies seemingly unconnected to ISIS or jihadi terror.

Among them were Alexander Lebedev, a newspaper publisher and Putin critic based in London. The Russians asked for financial tracking documents on a company tied to the Panama Papers, the multinational investigation that embarrassed the Kremlin by revealing Putin�s financial network. Throughout 2016, Rosfinmonitoring asked for documents on nearly two dozen entities that FinCEN insiders believed were enemies of the Kremlin.

finCEN also employees some real dummies.

quote:

�They sent this to a GMAIL account? Is that normal?� she asked in an email to a half dozen colleagues on November 28, 2016.

�Unfortunately, Rosfin does prefer throwaway gmail accounts as their preferred method to communicate,� a FinCEN intelligence official responded.

quote:

�El-Hindi�s failure to make decisions is legend at FinCEN,� this official said. �At one point, the previous director had him put together a decision-making seminar in hopes he might learn how to decision-make.� BuzzFeed News sent El-Hindi detailed messages personally and through Treasury, but received no response. The previous director also did not respond to queries.

If you haven't had a chance to read the article yet, I'd advise you to do it. This is Pulitzer-level reporting.

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1075810783957803008

axeil fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Dec 20, 2018

# ¿ Dec 20, 2018 20:20

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 22:28

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

DACK FAYDEN posted:

Yes, but I thought that she'd be a lock to vote actively no on Kavanaugh because of those native tribes... so, you know, I actually kind of want to retract my previous post, because that "present" bullshit sure was cowardly.

it doesn't matter if she voted no or voted present and people in this forum get way too wrapped up in symbolic things. i guarantee her constituents in alaska didn't care.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2019 16:46

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USNEWS: Put a ratty-looking paperclip on the stimulus bill