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jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1168102351670059009
Legislating against No Deal continues to be a really bad idea, because a) it might fail, b) Boris might just ignore it, c) the EU might veto the extension and d) it actually changes nothing since BoJo remains in charge.

Real choice continues to be Corbyn or No Deal, meaning we're heading for No Deal.

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jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Surprise Giraffe posted:

Is there anything to stop bojo actually pushing the exit date backwards? Might be their last shot if they think they're going to be kicked out anyway. Wouldn't really make a difference to the degree of chaos and the blaming the mess on remainers/Corbyn strategy.

Would require approval from the entire EU 27.

People are already suggesting that if BoJo ends up legally required to ask for an extension, he could ask his good friend Orban to veto it so we crash out anyway.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1168264692520882176

EDIT
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1168266343793221632

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Nuclear Spoon posted:

so is this just a regular 3-line whip or is it like Hyper 3-Line Omae Wa Mou Shinderu Whip

also given what the Whip actually is i am confused by the etymology of the phrase "withdrawing the whip"

https://www.parliament.uk/about/mps-and-lords/principal/whips/

A normal three-line whip is basically "you are expected to attend the vote and vote with the government and there may be consequences if you don't". In recent times there haven't usually been any consequences unless you're a front-bencher.

Outright saying in advance of the vote that you'll lose the whip is definitely serious poo poo. Saying you'll be deselected is holy-poo poo-balls-nuclear-option, since it's essentially ending political careers over a single vote. It's as far from normal as you can get. It's also infuriatingly ironic considering how frequently Labour was accused of 'Stalinist purges'.

It's hard to see how it's not all bluster though. If they ended up deselecting a dozen or more candidates, some in high-profile seats, right before a snap election then who's going to replace them? It takes time to find new candidates.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1168271540573659136

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

If Tory majority is just 1 then Rory getting the boot would nix it. But does the majority of 1 include the DUP or not? I'm not sure.

Bear in mind a couple of Tories are suspended but can be reasonably expected to vote with the whip, and they don't count towards that majority of one. So it's actually a few higher but still single digits.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010


Weird.

The idea that Johnson is going to withdraw the whip and deselect any rebels is all over the Tory papers tomorrow. So if he doesn't do it, now he looks weak. Lies from the Tory source?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1168609464192307200
They're all such spineless pricks I wouldn't be surprised if the legislation fails.

Also fully expecting Change UK and the rest of the independents to abstain like cowards knowing they face an election.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1168630302916435972
Is ten enough?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010


It would be really loving funny if we defeated BoJo and and then voted down an election, leaving him standing around with absolutely no loving plan and having promised the Earth to everybody and failed miserably to deliver.

Obviously then we have an election, but seriously just a few days of him being utterly humiliated would be awesome. The fact that he's going to be forced to deselect Winston Churchill's grandson is awesome enough.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

"For those on the other side of the house, I have some words of encouragement for them: sticking to your principles doesn't always damage your future prospects."

Pretty killer line from Corbyn.

Pistol_Pete posted:

I honestly wasn't expecting the Boris project to crash and burn quite this quickly.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1168938852200976384

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

wocobob posted:

What would the second scenario come from? A Corbyn VONC? Would that give more of a chance to not crash out? (sorry, i've been out of the loop on uk politics for a few days)

Labour can plausibly say they want the anti-no-deal bill to pass all stages, go to the Lords and return to the Commons for final reading before they'll vote for an election.

Also when did Corbyn go into stand-up?

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1168941871118393345

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1168953331194236928
It's really funny that after all the fury about Labour 'purges', BoJo is going to end up deselecting nearly twenty of his MPs including some fairly big names.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1168955534122332161
Hahahahaha

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Pochoclo posted:

Lol it's the first time I've seen Mogg getting everyone hostile on him, usually the Tories ate his poo poo right out his rear end

They're full on knives on each other it's great

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1168957841115353094?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Junior G-man posted:

If this bit about Labour voting through the No-Brexit bill and then just sitting on their hands watching Boris flounder while abstaining from an election vote, that would be hysterically funny.

Guardian posted:

Thornberry says Labour will not vote for general election until bill ruling out no-deal Brexit becomes law

Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has just told Sky News that Labour is desperate to hold a general election. But, asked if Labour would support a vote for a general election tomorrow, she says the party might abstain, or vote against. She says the party wants to see the bill ruling out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October passed first.

Under the Letwin plan, the bill could become law on Monday.

No 10 has been saying that, if the government loses the vote tonight, Boris Johnson will push for a vote on an early election tomorrow. But without Labour’s support, he will not get the two-thirds majority required under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act for the vote to be operable.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Teddybear posted:

Wait, what? We’re back to this?

With both main parties whipping against it has no chance. No Deal and a second referendum are too tantalisingly close for anything else to pass now.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Junior G-man posted:

Shipman is saying 16 rebels who will have the whip removed tonight. That would bring the whole house of cards down.

:yeshaha:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1168952421684514817
Hopefully more than 16.

No matter how Tory you are, a prick like Johnson kicking out the Father of the House after nearly fifty years can't look good to you.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Doccykins posted:

ahahahaha cowards



lol if the rebels had already resigned themselves to losing the whip why the gently caress would they change their minds overnight?

All this does it make them look weaker and weaker. What a joke.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

jaete posted:

Whip actually removed? Hahahaha eat poo poo conservatives, eat poo poo Bojo

Amazingly stupid threat that. Don't remove the whip, you look like a weak idiot who sucks. Do remove it, well enjoy your majority of -24 or some poo poo

It must reiterated: eat poo poo Bojo

Current majority of -43 actually.

It was +1 this morning.

:discourse:

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Holy poo poo the front page of the Telegraph Business lmao

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1168995016913707009

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Josef bugman posted:

Labour have played an absolute blinder here. I am so impressed by how much good political nouse they have been putting forward on big and small things.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1169017035743027201
This is definitely the 'maximum Johnson humiliation' timeline.

Necrothatcher posted:

I'm curious to see how Corbyn not going for a GE will play. I think his reasoning is sound, but it reads a bit funny if you don't know the details of what's going on.

There will be plenty of people calling Corbyn frit, but at the end of the day being PM and not being able to even call an election is a really bad look for a supposed strongman leader.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/reuterspictures/status/1169009600101781512
She's still terrible, but I can't help but share her joy here.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

peanut- posted:

I think the longer Johnson can be kept around looking incompetent and incapable of delivering turbo Brexit, the more likely the Brexit Party will be heavily involved in a GE which is what will gently caress the Tories.

Watching Newsnight what was really striking was the unity of the opposition. They lined up Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP and asked 'what now?' and the answer from every one was 'block no deal, then we have an election'. And after that? 'Second referendum.'

At the last election Labour were basically being attacked from all sides. I'm sure some of that will happen again, but if the other parties can bring themselves to turn the majority of their fire on the Tories then all bets are off.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010


Hahaha I'd forgotten about this

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1169020717888868354
:aaaaa:

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

njsykora posted:

The Lib Dems wouldn't go with Labour, I feel we've been over this enough times.

Yeah the whole thing is a bit moot now that BoJo wants an election.

The one thing it does is serve as an insurance policy if the anti-no-deal bill fails for some reason, we could VONC Boris and conceivably install Corbyn as a temporary PM now that enough ex-Tories might abstain or vote with him.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1169030510577901569
McDonnell confirmed as Labour source lol.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010


Best part is the forlorn "58 days to Brexit" banner like there's any loving chance of that happening now.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1169344098576359424

Cards continue to be played close to chest.

I'm torn personally. It would be REALLY loving funny to watch BoJo beg for an extention but the shitshow tonight shows he will use every dirty trick in the book to try and get No Deal. If we ended up crashing out because the extention bill wasn't as watertight as we thought it would be a tragedy.

UnlimitedSpessmans posted:

The clear hatred from all the MPs towards boris owns

Genuinely think the Tories might have hosed it by picking a leader Labour MPs hate more than Corbyn.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1169365318478815233
loving lol they've already got the knives out, this is hilarious.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1169366112884207616
Leaning towards this being the better option, but still scary that Boris might get Erdogan to veto an extension or some bollocks.

EDIT: Orban, not Erdogan.

jabby fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Sep 4, 2019

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

painted into a coroner posted:

I think with all the Brexit news I missed that Turkey had become a member of the EU.

I'm mixing up my borderline dictators and now I can't remember who the gently caress I mean.

EDIT: Orban!

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Peston is such a poo poo interviewer. Johnson shouts that he "can only SPECULATE" why Labour don't want an election (it's because they're cowards, obvs) and Peston says nothing. No follow up question, despite Labour being incredibly loving clear why they don't want an election.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1169370023581880320
It's really weird seeing Jess Phillips go on TV and attack the Tories while backing up Labour's position, it's like I've slipped into the mirror universe.

EDIT: Also lol The Saj is having such a poo poo time.
https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1169361686186340352

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/samlove8888/status/1169371941289037824
Dick joke writers confirmed back at work.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Captain Fargle posted:

Snap elections have a minimum required campaigning time of six weeks right? So if Corbyn holds out another two before an election is called, ie: the allotted time under the FTPA for the Opposition to try and gain the confidence of the House in a VONC, then by default the election happens after the Oct 31 deadline.

Not even that. If Corbyn holds out until next Thursday Parliament has to be prorogued, meaning an election can't be called until it returns about five weeks later.

Boris has basically hosed himself with the proroguing stunt.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Mebh posted:

Hey Medical goons, my wife and I currently live in the NL and we're seriously looking at moving to the UK. (yeah, great timing I know)

Medical question for the UK. The wife is on Lorazepam mandated by a psychiatrist here as a necessity for severe anxiety during sleeping that causes self destructive tendencies (she gets non stop intrusive thoughts without it and massive Insomnia)

Does anyone know if that'll be allowed in the UK since she has a medical history a mile long from Europe. Or will they be like "nope, we don't do that here"

From a few pages ago, but there's nothing in particular that would prevent a UK GP from prescribing regular Lorazepam unless they don't want to.

Lots of them might not want to though. because being on regular benzos isn't a good way to manage any psychiatric condition because tolerance and addiction develop so quickly. So they might recommend or even insist she try something else. All depends on what kind of doctor you get.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Doccykins posted:

Evening Standard


Crossposting from the politoons thread because of how amazingly well this has aged.

Chinese Gordon posted:

If there's an election on Oct 15 and the Tories win a majority then they can repeal the bill before the EU summit on the 17th. If they are allowed to campaign on repealing the bill and no deal then they will hoover up BXP votes, unite the gammons and win a majority with 35% of the vote thanks to our amazing electoral system. This is why the election must be delayed.

Yup. If the election is after the 17th the Tory platform has to be 'let us run down the clock yet again until the end of January and we'll go through all this again only hopefully it won't get blocked this time'. Which is not nearly as compelling.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Is anyone else finding it profoundly weird that Labour MPs and the press are finding it very hard to criticise Corbyn at the moment? Even Blair said he thinks he's doing the right thing. It's disturbing.

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jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Cheesus posted:

Sorry, I'm probably letting my americanism show.

If, say, Trump debated Sanders and the latter absolutely mopped the floor with the former, our media would naturally frame the narrative as a tie with shitloads of false equivalencies and it would absolutely influence a significant number of viewers to reconsider what they actually saw.

Electoral law over here obliges broadcasters to give each party equal airtime, and to keep their 'analysis' of stuff like debates at least reasonably balanced.

The papers will be as partisan as possible, but at least on TV people will tend to see actual clips of the debate which will be (fairly) reasonably chosen.

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