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I mostly lurk but just chiming in to say this poo poo is hosed up. Hoping I can find some opportunities to protest here in Houston
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Oct 13, 2019 18:33
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Republicans were right, there was no quid pro quo. Just 100% transparent bribery
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Oct 22, 2019 20:28
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evilweasel posted:they tried, he received a friendly subpoena so that he could tell them to pound sand Right, and it's gonna be pretty hard for state to obstruct career diplomatic professionals. They ain't diving in front of a bullet for Trump.
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Oct 22, 2019 20:40
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ShutteredIn posted:I feel like the "must announce the investigation in a big public spectacle way or no aid" stuff is new here, no? Just yesterday, all but one GOP members of the house voted to censure Schiff. It's going to all happen at once if it does and really hard to pin down which bombshell is the proverbial camel back breaker
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Oct 22, 2019 20:50
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Ok this is a ridiculous implication. Like 99.9% of PM 2.5 variability is going to be from wildfire activity and sandstorms in Arizona, not "non enforcement of clean air act standards." Almost all CAA enforcement is on the state level and even Mississippi and Alabama have basically kept their programs intact.
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Oct 22, 2019 21:29
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Doctor Butts posted:It could also be because the country came out of a recession. Well, economic growth was higher under Obama. But coal use dropped dramatically during this time, mostly for economic reasons (shale gas is way cheaper and more efficient). That PM number, especially averaged over the country is super noisy and the implication of that tweet/paper is idiotic.
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Oct 22, 2019 21:47
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LeeMajors posted:It’s so exhausting to deal with an opposition that literally doesn’t care at all about facts or reality. If it makes you feel better, most of the likely Nazis are going to be dead within 20-30 years
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Oct 23, 2019 13:30
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https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1186962929838710785 really makes you wonder if the GOP will figure out that Trump on the ballot in 2020 will lead to their destruction
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Oct 23, 2019 15:34
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BarbarianElephant posted:Are you sure the voters aren't enthusiastic about defending their beloved prez? I think 2018 turnout numbers and results tells a different story
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Oct 23, 2019 15:37
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I'd have to see the crosstabs to see if they use "Registered Republican" or "Republican leaning," because if it's the former, that enthusiasm number breakdown by party doesn't mean much. RVs are only ~30% republican
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Oct 23, 2019 15:43
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Solaris 2.0 posted:Republicans ARE enthusiastic as well, it's why they retained the senate. However, there are far more people who hate the President and are enthusiastic about voting him out than there are MAGA chuds. That to me was the lesson of 2018. yep, and as a reminder, the senate seats up for grabs in 2020 were selected by 37% of RVs in 2014
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Oct 23, 2019 15:53
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evilweasel posted:its not clear to me that you would expect dem enthusiasm to go up after a candidate is selected or not. i can easily argue both positions: right now, you can easily think that your candidate will be the nominee and be enthused about voting for them, letting any of (biden, bernie, warren) voters be enthusiastic about voting, while when only one of those three (or none) is actually the nominee, you might see some drop-off from the supporters of the failed candidates. alternatively, yeah, having a single candidate could hype people up once they come around after the primary. perhaps, but "gently caress trump" alone seems to be an extremely strong motivation.
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Oct 23, 2019 15:58
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DandyLion posted:I don't agree. I think the paradigm has shifted enough that the situation now is no longer analogous to Nixon. I don't think there is any % of support that causes Republicans to jump ship now. They'll ride it out to whatever conclusion and hope for the best. Nah, as soon as (and if) polling starts to show that Trump's continuing existence is a risk to their reelection chances they'll turn fast
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Oct 23, 2019 16:00
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still think the single biggest factor behind Trump's win was the pollster modeling circle jerk assuring us that he didn't stand a chance
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Oct 23, 2019 16:03
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the democrats need a new Preston Brooks
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Oct 23, 2019 16:07
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DandyLion posted:But what if abandoning him is projected to have just as many deleterious downstream affects as continued support? Kind of feels like they're stuck between a rock and a hard place, and I'd imagine inaction is easier and more likely than concerted combined efforts to distance themselves. yeah, no disagreement here. It's a calculation with lots of variables. My only point is that this is a dynamic situation and could change in a hurry
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Oct 23, 2019 16:10
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SpeakSlow posted:Interesting. So there's a possibility that a large number of Republican Senators could just not show up to the trial as a protest. That would allow for a conviction, but then they'd have the "Partisan Decision" card to play for maximum CYA irt their voter base. GOP voters are dumb, but I don't think they're that dumb
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Oct 23, 2019 16:27
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The thing is, Democrats don't need to do or change a thing. They have 30-35% of the population that will not change their love for god emperor trump. These stunts are working on this population but it literally doesn't matter.
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Oct 23, 2019 16:53
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evilweasel posted:this is not true yeah, while most "lean republican" and "lean democrat" independents vote party lines, can't ignore that 9% of Obama voters picked Trump in 2016
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Oct 23, 2019 17:08
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Tibalt posted:Lol there is at least 10 Republican Senators wondering if they'll even be punished in the 2024 election for coming out against this poo poo. I mean, considering how fast Bush was memory-holed after he stopped being in the news all the time... The thing is that if and when the Trump crime family is indicted and sentenced, Bush style memory holing ain't gonna work. You'll see GOP senators getting primaried based on their support of Trump. This has the real possibility of nuking the Republicans for years to come
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Oct 23, 2019 19:47
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Flip Yr Wig posted:No Republican is getting successfully primaried for supporting Trump. There are likely going to be incumbents losing in the general for supporting him, but the motivated primary voting Republicans are extremely in Trump's camp. I dunno, lots of Republicans distanced themselves from Bush. And Bush, like Nixon, had actual deep state ties. I think you won't be able to find many Republicans who will claim to have supported Trump 5 years from now
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Oct 23, 2019 19:51
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i'm starting to suspect that donald trump is not very smart
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Oct 23, 2019 20:05
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TulliusCicero posted:Is this was Nixon would have been like if he had twitter? nah Nixon was literate and at least somewhat intelligent
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Oct 23, 2019 20:29
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https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1187083007406084101 this will just be ignored, right?
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Oct 23, 2019 20:38
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Fake News: if you can't beat em, join em!
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Oct 24, 2019 01:10
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I don't think those things scale linearly. A 6-7% margin Nationwide would be a Wipeout (and I think well within the realm of possibility)
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Oct 24, 2019 01:20
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Imagine being white, not homeless looking and actually getting busted for shoplifting lol
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Oct 24, 2019 01:34
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fwiw, predictit odds for impeachment went from 70% to 78% in a couple of days. For stuff like this, moves often take place because of inside baseball activities going on in DC
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Oct 24, 2019 02:11
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luxury handset posted:yeah it's this, not company scrip. facebucks would be real handy when it comes to running an online marketplace There's a reason why credit card company stocks are well loved by value investors, even at elevated valuations. "Compounders" as they're called. Having a working currency would make revenues less susceptible to cyclical ad spends by a few key industries
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Oct 24, 2019 02:14
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DarkHorse posted:Doesn't PredictIt start getting weird when things get closer to a sure thing? Like, bets are limited to $500 or something, so the market can't adjust if a bunch of people want to buy more of a (not that risky) proposition but have already hit cap? There's a limit to how much a single person can purchase (up to $800 per contract or something). I mopped up in 2015-17 (a lot from betting on Trump) but I realized I was starting to develop a problematic relationship with gambling. Anyways the single person limit helps prevent whales from outwardly moving prices. When lots of "normal" people start to get wind of stuff, you see these defined moves out of coin flip territory (30-70%) and usually it's surprisingly predictive
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Oct 24, 2019 02:20
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Charlz Guybon posted:Is there a reason for the cap? It's some loophole so they can avoid being classified as a casino/bookie (it's totally a bookie though)
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Oct 24, 2019 02:21
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Anyways, I did the math a few years ago. Yes/No markets with sufficient trading volume that are dependent on the actions of a small group of people (so not elections, and no random poo poo like "number of trump tweets") that reach 85c resolve that way 95%+ of the time. Realized odds skyrocketing starting at like 75-80%. At 95 cents, the realized odds approach 99% during the time that predictit has been around. So snapping up as many 85c contracts as you can is sort of like shorting volatility. Long term, people are irrational and remember the long shots panning out. Risks are asymmetrical. Could easily clear 10% a year compounded until you run out of contracts/markets available to buy. I let discipline go too often though so that's why I stopped. Big moves in these markets have meaning though so I still keep an eye on them
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Oct 24, 2019 02:42
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MLB better be firing that Umpire, they need diversity anyways to help prevent losses from all the civil suits piling up. Plus I am fueled by chud rage over sports stuff on social media. It's what keeps me going
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Oct 24, 2019 12:48
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Nail Rat posted:He claimed to the school official that an 11 year old girl who was unarmed is a threat. Remember a few months ago when that guy in Texas got sentenced to 99 years in prison for flailing his bare foot at, and lightly striking, a police officer? (tbf, the guy was an actual menace who simply would not stop driving cars while shitfaced drunk)
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Oct 24, 2019 17:25
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No amount of prepping will actually prepare you for total societal collapse, so it's best to just not think about it lmao
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Oct 24, 2019 19:29
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Griffen posted:That's a bit like saying attempting to mitigate climate change won't completely eliminate climate change impacts, so you shouldn't try. Actions taken to prepare oneself for an emergency (say like getting basic emergency gear for a hurricane) does not eliminate the impacts of the emergency (having water bottles and batteries does not stop a hurricane), but it does lessen some of the damage and increase the chance for successfully surviving it (you are less likely to die of dehydration or dysentery). While no one can fully prepare for total societal collapse, people can take steps to lessen the impacts of disruptions of services and other outcomes of a more uncertain and unstable world. If a 1% better chance of surviving makes someone feel better, who are you to criticize them? No one says you have to do anything, but pardon some of us if we prefer not to stick our head in the sand. Nah, not the same. We know the basic cause for climate change so we can do something about it, and that's where effort should be spent. Total societal collapse could happen suddenly and for a jillion possible reasons. If things fall apart those cases of water and iodine pills and bullets just delay the inevitable
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Oct 24, 2019 19:42
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Nail Rat posted:If things fall apart to that point though, a few more months/days/weeks can be precious. Perhaps, but I can just piggyback on my hurricane preparedness. We keep 2-3 weeks worth of water and canned food on hand. I just don't think you can really prepare for the breakdown of society as it will be unimaginably horrible
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Oct 24, 2019 19:54
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Yeah, non US banks are hosed because of central bank interest rate depression. The real problem is that our entire world economy, and every service provided to humans is based on a market system that requires perpetual 3% growth at minimum, most of which is based on consumption and population growth. As human population flatlines the system as it exists is impossible to maintain. Basically we figure out how to distribute wealth and remove growth at any cost as the central driver for human activity or the whole thing collapses
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Oct 24, 2019 20:04
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What happens if and when zombie Deutsche Bank collapses is a complete mystery and anyone claiming authority on the matter is deluded. Their debts are intertwined with every country and asset class on the planet edit: exactly Prester Jane posted:I'm getting some real 2007 era D&D vibes from this discussion. ("The Housing market is experiencing a natural and expected correction, a few bad loans present no risk to an economy this sophisticated")
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Oct 24, 2019 20:22
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syntaxrigger posted:So now I have more questions. I am economic idiot. If the "banks" were "too big to fail" but you are saying "lol failure can't happen" then what did the tax payers actually do in 2008? American banks are in much better shape, structurally, then they have been in decades. China's banking system is a massive and likely fraudulent black box, DB is a tire fire, and there are tons of Italian and Spanish banks that are basically walking insolvencies, as they were never properly gutted and recapitalized following 2008 and 2012
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Oct 24, 2019 20:26
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