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CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
boris johnson's dad wishes that michael gove was his son. boris hiding under the covers somewhere making theatrical a-bloo-bloo sobs as he cowers, great greasy tears staining his half melted face, and he knows that micheal gove - michael gove - is braver, more dignified, and evidently preferred, by his racist prick of a father. somewhere, micheal gove is trying to convince a security guard at an aquarium that as he is a fish, he should be allowed into the tanks to procreate and boris wishes so passionately that it were he instead.

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CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Paperhouse posted:

Who coaches MPs to be like this? Or do 95% of them just naturally become insanely evasive every time a question is asked

shadow cab strategically is very valuable in a competitive framework with other MPs - you want to be able to dangle it as an incentive to motivate endorsements, something to horse trade with, etc. it's also seen as a liability if you appear to be recreating a cabinet that has already failed.

Corbyn wasn't paying advisors to give him this advice, so he gave the answer that won him the election.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Oh dear me posted:

While Corbyn got in through a miraculous melt self-own, the left has then been enabled to get real power in the party by consistent slate voting. That's probably Momentum's biggest contribution, making sure we've all voted together for people we've never heard of before to get control of important offices, despite the Labour right doing their best not to sound rightwing in their candidate literature.

they are very, very bad at it too. the first year I got my NEC shortlist booklet, i decided i was going to be a good bahai, read it from cover to cover and decide on merit before looking at the Momentum slate. despite the fact the document didn't allow for explicit endorsements, when I had finished I had both picked every Momentum candidate +1 as "would vote for" and had, with perfect accuracy, crossed out every Progress candidate.

several of them were gimmies like luke ahurst but several more included such fun shibboleths as "I reject being a candidate for the many and not the Jew" and similar obvious digs. gee, i wonder who that's about.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

XMNN posted:

convinced my mum to join the labour party, so my immediate family is 4 for 4

my mum is actually registered and my sis arranged an absentee ballot so that's +2 votes for labour in carlisle over 2017

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
"forthemanyfesto" is very good too

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

sebzilla posted:

If it had been someone else on the lefts turn as the token candidate in 2015, where do we think Corbyn would have been in the shadow cabinet? If Diane Abbott were Leader, or John McDonnell, for example. I couldn't see him at Shadow Chancellor. Home Secretary maybe.

had abbot or mcdonnell been on the ballot they'd almost certainly have lost - abbot actually had the previous election campaign.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

sebzilla posted:

I'm not sure, they'd have still benefitted from the OMOV rule change and the general mood for socialism in the membership. I don't think Corbyn was uniquely capable of taking advantage of those factors. He might have done better since winning in 2015 than the other possibilities, though. Who else was even in that group? Skinner?

we have a control for abbot - it wasn't OMOV but she still got 7% in 2010 . unfortunately a lifelong smear campaign, hysterically hostile press and the fact that a significant chunk of the country feels it's appropriate to poo poo up her mentions means she got painted exactly as the right wanted her painted and marginalized as such.

mcdonnell has been (in my opinion) very, very extensively rehabilitated and given quite a lot of media coaching since 2015 and to be honest i still don't think the establishment buys it. dude's a radical, that's why he's so perfect as corbyn's attack dog, but as leader they'd have dig up their anti-militant handbook and crucify him with it.

had to be corbyn, imo.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
lolllllll brown moses is a lib dem of course

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Brown Moses posted:

You're projecting so hard you should work in a cinema.

are you THIS accostomed to having people digest your ideas uncritically? this is genuinely pathetic - is your usual audience some sort of seal trained to clap

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

OwlFancier posted:

Oh no coolcab's been replaced by a russian agent.

don't you know, I disagree with trump, therefore via the transitive property anyone who disagrees with me must be trump. I'm an adult and am paid handsomely by the CIA to have these adult ideas

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Rust Martialis posted:



Some people read that as a carefully neutral statement of fact, others as an attack on Labor. I myself am somewhat in the middle
quelle sufuckinprise

quote:

Fold in the usual antagonism to Brown Moses from the usual suspects in here, and step back.
people are so unreasonable about the cia

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
also lol the party is Labour champ

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

TheRat posted:

Nah, they're an american living in denmark so the labor isn't a giveaway of any kind. Still a twat though.

yeah I'm just being a jerk, as so often is my wont

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
wait what? In Canada we spell it with a u? see Canadian labour day. what?

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Rarity posted:

I'm a big fan of Momentum's recurring douchebag rich dude character

I was wondering about him - how do you hire for "rich upperclass prick" among hardcore labour? you think the dudes more in it for the drama or politics or the job or what.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Tesseraction posted:

That is the other one I think of tbf. Loads of comedies are good at doing pathos on a dime.

comedy is harder than tragedy so it's always easier to gear down than up

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I think the reason I feel so much lower than I did this time in 2017 is I'm much more invested in it. There seemed no hope at all in 2017 and I could just ride the wave of gallows humour and lol nothing matters. This time round - thanks to 2017 - I've reason to hope, and as such have put a lot more of myself both physically and mentally into it, which means that the attacks against Labour feel much more like an attack against me personally, so they sap the spirit in a way they couldn't before.

feel that to an incredible degree. pessimism is an adaptive behaviour. god it was so much easier when I didn't care about anything.

quote:

There's also - as a white, middle aged, middle class cishet male - that tiny little voice that says "Hey, don't worry, you're coming out ahead no matter what". That was a feeling I could drown in macho irony* when I was detached from things, but with a personal investment it's a lot loving louder this time round, and I absolutely hate myself for it.

I keep telling myself - you can afford to bugger off and Canada has jobs, legalization and the Tories aren't so loving bad. and then I feel supremely guilty about it - jobs are all petrodollars, legalization was a sop to give a blackface loving liberal prick power and tories are tories.

quote:

Don't mind me, just venting some stuff - I always find actually writing it down makes me able to realise how silly this poo poo actually sounds. Vote Labour, gently caress the Tories of all stripes, and solidarity to all.
yep. I'll always be pessimistic about everything - I've made peace with that - but loving go down swinging.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Tesseraction posted:

When do you think the Guardian will do its editorial to endorse the Lib Dems?

too obvious, they trade on their lefty cred. halfhearted Corbyn endorsement with backhanded compliments and a strong "anyone but Boris" energy, as late as is possible imo

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
right. cold weather sucks, as does ice. here are some protips from a canadian for any of you canvassing out there:

1) freezing or low temperature rain is ludicrously efficient at lowering body temperature - very very conductive. you want something covering your head (touque for me but an umbrella works fine too)

2) the more you exert energy the warmer you will be, but try to avoid exerting yourself to the point you get sweaty if possible because again, water is very conductive. if you start to shiver your body is trying to force this so its a good sign to push a little harder.

3) wear boots - decent boots ideally, hiking ones are fine. this keeps you warm but more importantly is the traction. if you need to cross an icey patch you take it low and slow - keep your center of mass low and take your time

4) handwarmers are great but if you can't source them, a thermos or insulated travel mug genuinely can help - they let out the heat slowly and you can always enjoy a brew on the go too. i personally can't stand gloves but if you can get on that poo poo.

5) alcohol makes you feel warmer this is mostly an illusion - good carbohydrate filled breakfast and plenty of hot drinks is your best defense.

6) layers are amazing because you can never be sure how warm you're gonna be - bring one big coat and you might be alternating between freezing and boiling, a t shirt, sweater and light jacket gives you tons of options.

7) stay the gently caress away from puddles on the side of the road because drivers are wankers

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Exioce posted:

Sorry for invading your Safe Space echo chamber.

awww are you gonna cry? can't manage to win an argument so you hide behind these tired platitudes to disguise your cowardice. if Binky wants his bottle I'm sure you can find it elsewhere

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Zero Gravitas posted:

Quick check: whats the threads thoughts on the almost inevitable hung parliament or tory majority?

same thing we did in 2015, 2017? it would suck but you gotta push on.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Jedit posted:

The current PM is half a country. The first half, to be exact.

heh nice

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Rarity posted:

I'm not on Twitter, what's the red/brown thing?

ain't a Twitter thing, it's ancient - red as in commie, brown as in fash

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
also "people of talent" isn't a loving expression

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
i have read that actors are extremely likely to be landlords - they're in a career where their income is insanely variable month-to-month and they're generally pretty terrible with money/live in London. do a voiceover ad for Heinz, stick the cash into a few buy to lets and suddenly jeremy corbyn is too extreme for this life long labour voter.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

ThomasPaine posted:

what actually makes the exit poll so traditionally accurate? like all polls I have never been asked who I voted for afterwards and neither has anyone I know.

every other poll is aspirational, exit polls are observational. you aren't polling what people think they may vote you're polling a fixed event.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

ThomasPaine posted:

just crossing whatever drat box their pen hits first.

this is already an observed effect even without compulsory voting, whoever happens to be listed on the ballot first consistently gets a small but measurable boost. it's why we randomize order iirc

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
it's worth noting that Dennis Skinner's opponent gained votes from a collapsing UKIP in 2017 (conservatives gaining 8000ish votes almost 1:1 from UKIP losing that number) and as such his majority decreased, but in the sense he got more than 50% of the total votes in 2015 his majority increased in 2017.

if bolstover winds up a swing seat the election is already badly lost.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
I crawled into a bottle of whiskey in 2015 and by god I'll do the same again

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
think that's one of weetmans hangers on

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

an_mutt posted:

how Labour strongholds like Bolsover are seemingly vulnerable

this entire narrative is based on people deliberately conflating the two uses of the word "majority" which started happening after the last election. look:



in the horse race sense that you measure how candidates do against one another, dennis' majority was cut. in the sense that he got a majority of all of the votes, his majority increased. unlike the gains the conservative candidate got - almost a perfect 1:1 with UKIP collapse - skinner got 1.5 thousand more people to vote for him. decent turnout too, only 5 points behind the national average.

if dennis skinner loses his seat either some fraction of his voter base went tory, a significant fraction would need to go to some other party or the tories manage to register and motivate a bunch of people who didn't vote last election. if every single 2017 non-labour voter voted for the conservatives they still would have lost. it's not impossible but it would be exceptional unless skinner becomes very unpopular with his constituency, and although i don't live there my impression was he's one of the most popular.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Ms Adequate posted:

Yeah I have no idea where this "Bolsover is going blue" shite from them is coming from. The Beast's been there for half a century and they think this election cycle, with these dipshits in charge, is the one where he falls?

because it fits the narratives they've been desperately trying to push - that the labour heartlands will flip over any minute because they voted leave in the brexit referendum. corbyn is a metropolitan elite and can't connect with the Real Working Class - who are ironically named as they don't care at all about class and are uniformly racist dullards with funny accents.

skinner is a contradiction to this lie and his success in bolsover is even moreso, so bolstover will always be reported as two steps away from tory.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I don't think I have a single track recorded this decade. I'm old, IDGAF.

you know, i checked because i assumed i would be as bad but genuinely not. i still have a huge bias to tracks from about 2003-2010 but otherwise there's plenty of new stuff.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

goddamnedtwisto posted:


(this is assuming I outlive Dave Grohl which seems unlikely because he still only seems to be about 12 years old)

he drinks several pots of coffee a day, which both explains the above and probably explains why it's wrong

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

TACD posted:

Extremely disappointed that this isn't from the poster with the Chieveley services red text

haha

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
the guardian making exactly the kind of endorsement that they always were going to.

e:

CoolCab posted:

too obvious, they trade on their lefty cred. halfhearted Corbyn endorsement with backhanded compliments and a strong "anyone but Boris" energy, as late as is possible imo

but this is sort of like calling that the sun will come up, or the sun will go fash.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

peanut- posted:

I assume Thornberry and Abbot have been packed off into the same electoral liability containment zone as Jacob Rees-Mogg. Starmer's disappearance seems much more likely to be his own choice.

He's in a weird position of being loyal enough to Corbyn that leftists don't hate him but also all the centrists loving love him.

he also might be too Brexit related - leadership has very deliberately steered the conversation away largely. his presence could rerail it.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
also yeah lol can't sleep want election to be over now

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
god I slept like 4 hours lmao

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CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

goddamnedtwisto posted:

It took me a lot longer than it should have to get that. Even that seems like such innocent ancient history nowadays.

someone posted the Harry potter neoliberalism rant and I was reading it like, oh man this takes me back to 2010, then I realized it was less than two years old.

is there a name for this phenomena? like the opposite of when someone posts eg "9/11 is old enough to drink!" and all the old timers groan. I keep going "2018 was only last year!?! gently caress me I'm young"

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